Global Thinking
Welcome to Global Thinking, the podcast where we explore the intersection of global macro investing, geo-political tensions, and financial advice. Join our host Rob Duncan, as they guide you through the complex world of personal finance and help you navigate the ever-changing landscape of global markets. Every month we bring on top experts to share their insights and perspectives on the latest trends and events shaping the global economy. Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this podcast is your go-to resource for understanding how to manage your wealth in a rapidly changing world. So sit back, relax, and join us for an engaging and thought-provoking conversation on Global Thinking.
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Desensitized and Diversified: Investing Through Policy Whiplash
06/04/2025
Desensitized and Diversified: Investing Through Policy Whiplash
In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong Portfolio Manager, Terry Shaunessy, to unpack how investors are navigating a world where political theatrics, including Trump’s tariff flip-flops, no longer move markets like they used to. They explore why the U.S. may need to consider a GST-style tax, why service-based economies could be the next big growth engine, and how market strategies need to adapt to volatility fatigue. The conversation also dives into the Canadian economic puzzle: a stable banking sector weighed down by real estate drag and stagnant productivity. Meanwhile, global markets are showing signs of normalization, and gold continues its quiet rally as a store of value. It's a wide-ranging, timely discussion that blends macro insight with practical takeaways, ideal for investors trying to keep their footing through the policy-induced whiplash of today’s markets. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast 01:06 Insights from Terry on Global Markets 02:19 The Impact of Tariffs and Trump's Policies 08:43 Market Reactions and Economic Signals 12:51 The Future of U.S. Markets and Economic Growth 20:06 Analyzing the Canadian Economy and Investment Opportunities 24:04 Final Thoughts on Economic Outlook and Gold Investment Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us - Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes. For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan,
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Power Shifts, Trade Rifts, and Investment Lifts
05/22/2025
Power Shifts, Trade Rifts, and Investment Lifts
Global Thinking: Power Shifts, Trade Rifts, and Investment Lifts In this no-holds-barred episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with AGF Investments CEO and CIO, Kevin McCreadie, to unpack the chaos, clarity, and contradictions shaping markets in 2025. From political plot twists in Canada to the unpredictable theatre of Trump 2.0, they dive into how power moves and policy pivots are reshaping capital flows. Is U.S. exceptionalism running out of runway? Will Canada finally find its economic groove? And what does Europe’s fiscal awakening and China's evolving role mean for global portfolios? Kevin brings hard-earned insight on asset allocation in uncertain times, the growing appetite for alternatives, and why investors can’t afford to ignore geopolitical risk anymore. They also touch on AI’s rapid disruption and how smart advisors are getting ahead of the curve. If you're looking for sugar-coated optimism, look elsewhere. But if you want the unfiltered take on where markets are headed and what it means for your money, this is the episode. Chapters (00:00) Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast (01:06) Kevin McCready's Role and Tenure at AGF Investments (03:20) Transformations in the Asset Management Industry (06:30) The Importance of Asset Allocation (08:07) Market Commentary: Understanding Current Trends (12:08) US Market Dynamics and Sector Performance (15:20) The Concept of US Exceptionalism (18:23) Political Landscape and Its Economic Implications (19:54) Interest Rates and Economic Strategies (24:04) The Trade War and Its Consequences (26:47) Canada's Political Shift and Economic Outlook (27:43) Navigating Political Landscapes and Economic Agendas (30:55) Canada's Global Standing and Trade Dynamics (34:36) Geopolitical Impacts on Europe and Defense Spending (38:04) Emerging Markets: Opportunities and Challenges (40:20) Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook (42:14) The Future of AI and Its Implications Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us - Books Mentioned: The Coming Wave…Mustafa Suleyman Nexus …Yuval Noah Harari AI 2024….Kai Fu-Lee Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes. For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan,
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Elbows Up – Time to Pivot and Rebalance
05/06/2025
Elbows Up – Time to Pivot and Rebalance
In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack a rowdy stretch in markets and politics. From Canada’s recent election to Trump’s tariff tantrums, the conversation dives into how economic confidence has taken a hit on both sides of the border. But while Canada seems to be finding it’s way with new leadership and domestic competition; American markets wrestle with political uncertainty and slowing economic data. Capital is quietly on the move finding greener pastures in Europe and Asia. With European fiscal stimulus acting as a catalyst, global sentiment is shifting quickly. Tyler makes the case for investors to roll up their sleeves, rebalance portfolios, and lean into global diversification. It’s a timely conversation filled with sharp insights and a reminder that when markets get volatile it pays to maintain a global perspective. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast (01:06) Canadian Politics and Election Outcomes (05:09) Macroeconomic Trends in Canada (12:37) US Market Dynamics and MAG-7 (20:15) International Economic Opportunities and Desynchronization (25:31) Economic Performance Overview (27:54) International Markets: A New Catalyst for Growth (30:42) Navigating Uncertainty: Investor Sentiment and Strategy (35:19) The Importance of Global Diversification (38:27) Personal Insights and Future Outlook Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us - For any questions, comments or suggestions please reach out to Rob Duncan,
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Panic, Policy, and the New Playbook
04/11/2025
Panic, Policy, and the New Playbook
In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan is joined by Forstrong CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack what may become one of the most studied financial panics of our time. With markets rattled by a sudden loss of confidence, they explore how erratic policy moves and recent tariff announcements have triggered a global risk-off sentiment and shaken investor faith in American capital markets. Tyler explains why this isn’t your typical market correction, but rather a policy-inflicted confidence shock that’s exposing deep structural cracks. The conversation dives into the fading role of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, the growing importance of global diversification, and why gold is back in fashion. Most importantly, they discuss what investors should be watching now: bond market stability, fiscal stimulus leadership, and emerging opportunities in unexpected places. Whether you're navigating this storm or preparing for what's next, this episode is a timely reminder that having a strategy and knowing your signals is more critical than ever. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast 01:06 Market Turmoil and Tariff Impacts 03:27 Understanding the Financial Panic 10:01 Signals to Watch in the Current Market 13:22 Investment Implications and Opportunities 16:10 Final Thoughts and Advice for Investors Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/ Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/ Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/ Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/ Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/
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Chasing Alpha: The Wisdom of Crowds and Market Efficiency
03/24/2025
Chasing Alpha: The Wisdom of Crowds and Market Efficiency
The majority of active managers underperform their benchmarks - but why? In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob sits down with Dr. Joseph Nelesen, Head of Specialists, Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, to unpack the 2024 SPIVA Report—the definitive study comparing active fund managers to their benchmarks. The discussion explores how most active managers have underperformed their benchmark, the critical role of survivorship bias, and the impact of fees and market conditions on long-term performance. Joe shares eye-opening statistics including how almost half of all funds over a 10 year period cease to exist and the fact that zero managers maintain their top quartile ranking over a five-year period. Rob and Joe also dive into ETF investing, analyzing the trends shaping active management today and what investors should consider when building portfolios. Whether you're an investment professional or an individual investor, this conversation delivers valuable insights into the ongoing debate between active versus index strategies and how market efficiency may be impacting your investment decisions. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast 01:07 Meet Dr. Joseph Nelesen 05:53 Understanding the SPIVA Report 13:15 Key Findings from the 2024 Report Card 19:04 The Challenge of Persistence in Active Management 25:54 Trends in Active Management and ETF Usage 27:57 Exploring Fixed Income Strategies 30:41 The Dynamics of Equal Weighting in S&P 500 31:55 Active vs. Passive Investing: A Deep Dive 35:06 The Role of Fees in Investment Performance 38:27 Understanding Long-Term Underperformance Trends 39:36 Due Diligence in Selecting Active Managers 41:52 The Evolution of Market Efficiency 44:22 Personal Insights and Recommendations Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us -
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The Great Vibe Shift: From MAG 7 to Drag 7
03/03/2025
The Great Vibe Shift: From MAG 7 to Drag 7
In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong’s CEO & CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the evolving market landscape and the unmistakable “vibe shift” happening in global markets. The once-unstoppable dominance of U.S. equities and the MAG 7 is showing signs of fatigue while broader global markets are stepping into the spotlight. Europe is showing signs of economic resurgence, emerging markets are gaining traction, and investors are finally remembering there are stocks outside of the S&P 500. They also break down the latest economic headlines, including the impact of Trump 2.0 policies, which were supposed to fuel growth but seem to be running in the opposite direction faster than Zelensky leaving the White House. Inflation, interest rates, and shifting investment narratives all come into play, along with a fresh take on the Canadian economy’s potential. Is this the beginning of a new global investment era? Tune in for insights and a look at where smart money might be heading next. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Investing 01:08 Market Dynamics and the Trump Effect 07:38 The Shift from MAG-7 to Broader Markets 14:03 Europe's Economic Resurgence 21:37 Emerging Markets: A Turning Point 26:15 Interest Rates and Inflation Outlook 28:06 Inflation: The Central Concern 35:14 The Canadian Dollar and Global Trade 39:13 Exploring Wealth Beyond Finances 43:28 Closing Thoughts and Recommendations The 5 Types of Wealth - Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us -
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Trump, Tariffs, Tech, and Turbulence
02/11/2025
Trump, Tariffs, Tech, and Turbulence
In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast Rob sits down with Forstrong’s Lead Portfolio Manager, David Kletz, to tackle two of the biggest forces shaping markets today: trade policy and technology. To start, they dive into the latest tariff turmoil, where Trump’s abrupt policy flip-flop left markets scrambling. What does this unpredictability mean for global trade and investor confidence? David breaks down the broader economic uncertainty and how investors can position themselves amid shifting geopolitical tensions. To round it off the conversation turns to the tech sector, where DeepSeek rapid advancements sparked a major selloff in U.S. tech stocks raising questions about whether new leadership in artificial intelligence is emerging. Rob and David explore what this means for investors, sector rotations, and the future of innovation-driven market leadership. Chapters 01:06 Market Reactions to AI Developments 03:11 Impact of Tariffs on Investment Strategies 06:52 Sector Analysis and Portfolio Protection 10:42 Opportunities in Global Markets 13:24 AI Developments and Market Implications 18:36 Interest Rates and Currency Volatility Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us -
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Unlocking the Power of Alternatives
01/30/2025
Unlocking the Power of Alternatives
In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Adam Payne, President and Chief Compliance Officer of Kinsted Wealth, for a deep dive into the evolving world of alternative investments. With market uncertainty and traditional asset classes facing headwinds, alternatives have taken center stage—but how can investors truly access them? Rob and Adam explore the critical role of manager selection, due diligence, and industry trends shaping the space. From challenges in accessibility to Kinsted’s vision for democratizing alternatives, this episode offers valuable insights for investors looking to expand their portfolios beyond the conventional. As alternative investments gain traction, understanding what truly defines them—and how they fit into a diversified portfolio—has never been more important. Adam shares why Kinsted Wealth has embraced this shift, emphasizing the need for strong manager selection and the hurdles of liquidity and accessibility that individual investors face. With growing interest in alternatives, education remains key for both investors and advisors looking to navigate this complex yet promising space. Chapters: 01:07 Exploring Alternative Investments 05:43 Defining Alternative Investments 08:06 The Role of Alternatives in Portfolios 10:59 Manager Selection and Due Diligence 16:34 Access to Alternative Investments 20:24 Industry Trends in Alternatives 26:43 Lessons Learned and Challenges in Alternatives 31:34 Future Developments at Kinsted Wealth Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us -
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Markets in Motion - Resilience and Rivalries
01/10/2025
Markets in Motion - Resilience and Rivalries
In this episode Rob joins Forstrong CEO and Chief Investment Officer, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the defining moments of 2024 and the forces shaping 2025. The past year was further evidence we are not in a traditional economic cycle. In the face of elevated volatility, geopolitical tensions, and a charged political landscape markets powered higher. Yet, amidst the chaos, two themes stood tall: the commanding influence of tech giants and the unexpected resilience of global economic growth. Fast forward to 2025, and the drama continues—think Netflix-worthy twists. Trump 2.0 is shaking up the global order, reviving tariffs and hinting at economic annexation with Canada in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, Canada faces a leadership vacuum, a declared “productivity emergency”, and interest rate cuts that seem to be losing their punch. South of the border, U.S. equity valuations are flirting with new records as rate cuts may be postponed and government spending finally tightens. Globally, the stakes are just as high. China’s deflationary concerns are sending shockwaves through markets, while Europe grapples with pivotal elections that could redefine its economic trajectory. This episode delivers sharp insights into these unfolding narratives, offering investors a lens to navigate a year where resilience and rivalry go hand in hand. Chapters 00:00 2024 Review: A Year of Volatility 15:05 2025 Outlook: Key Themes and Trends 17:26 Political Landscape: Elections and Economic Policies 22:07 Trump 2.0: Implications for Canada and Global Trade 28:06 Global Economic Dynamics and the Role of the U.S. 30:28 Canada's Economic Challenges and Opportunities 32:15 The Impact of Interest Rates on Economic Growth 36:00 China's Economic Policy and Global Implications 42:04 Reflections: Documentaries and Personal Insights Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us -
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Global Thinking Vibecession with Keith Dicker
11/28/2024
Global Thinking Vibecession with Keith Dicker
In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan welcomes Keith Dicker, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at IceCap Asset Management, for an in-depth exploration of the global financial landscape. Keith shares captivating insights from his unique career path, the art of global investing, the power of networking, and why risk management remains the cornerstone of successful strategies. Rob and Keith unpack the implications of climbing long-term interest rates, the mounting pressures of government debt and why this could lead to greater opportunities in the future. Keith dives into the intricate dance of inflation and energy markets, offering a sharp perspective on how central bank policies are shaping investment challenges and why you need to keep an eye on currency markets. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Investing Philosophy 01:34 Keith Dicker's Journey in Investment Management 05:42 Market Outlook: Opportunities and Risks 06:10 US Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators 10:04 Long-Term Interest Rates and Economic Growth 12:31 Government Debt and Fiscal Challenges 15:52 Global Savings and Investment Strategies 18:46 Currency Markets and Risk Management 22:31 US Economic Resilience and Investment Opportunities 31:41 Inflation Trends and Market Implications 32:09 Inflation Trends and Predictions 35:31 Energy Market Dynamics 37:23 Investment Strategies for Canadians 40:50 Market Opportunities and Concerns 44:04 Central Bank Policies and Currency Dynamics 50:50 Final Thoughts and Recommendations
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5 Questions Keeping Investors Up at Night
11/04/2024
5 Questions Keeping Investors Up at Night
2024 is proving to be another year full of surprises. Investors have been bracing for recession as a waterfall of misleading signals have dominated headlines. While many braced for a looming recession, markets defied expectations with strong returns—leaving many sidelined in cash or GICs, missing out on the upside. In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob sits down with Forstrong’s CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the themes from Tyler's latest article, . Together, they tackle the big questions shaping today’s investment landscape: Where are we in the economic cycle? Are geopolitical shocks here to stay? What impact could the U.S. election bring? Is China’s economic stimulus a real game-changer? And, finally, what does the future hold for the powerhouse MAG-7 tech stocks? Join us for a deep dive into these pressing topics and find out why keeping perspective—and staying invested—matters now more than ever. Chapters 00:00 Introduction 01:07 The Five Questions 02:36 Where are we in the Economic Cycle? 10:40 Are Geopolitical Shocks Becoming More Frequent? 17:06 What are the Implications of US Elections? 24:54 Are China's Economic Stimulus a Game Changer? 30:14 What is the Future of the MAG-7 Tech Stocks? Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us -
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From Paper to Pixels: Canada’s Fintech Transformation
10/29/2024
From Paper to Pixels: Canada’s Fintech Transformation
Financial technology, or Fintech, in Canada has traditionally trailed behind the U.S. by nearly a decade. Until recently, even basic processes like virtual onboarding were rare in Canada, where advisors and clients often dealt with stacks of paper for signatures and mailed-off documents. But a global pandemic has accelerated change, bringing digital solutions and smartphone-driven client experiences to the forefront. In this episode of Global Thinking, Rob sits down with Oliver Yoon, Head of Harness Investment Management, to explore the rapidly evolving Canadian Fintech landscape. Together, they discuss Oliver's extensive experience in finance, Harness’s mission to empower advisors with independent investment solutions, and how technology is transforming client interactions. They also dive into the role of AI in financial services and the exciting future for advisors embracing innovation. Chapters 00:00 Introduction 01:07 Oliver Career in Finance 06:24 Understanding Harness and Its Role 09:56 The Importance of Independence in Canada 13:02 A Fintech Solution for Advisors 18:29 AI's Role in Financial Services 20:29 Future Opportunities for Harness 22:24 Competition and Unique Offerings 24:33 Personal Insights and Closing Remarks Disclosures: Global Thinking Podcast Series - Global Thinking Insights - Who is Forstrong Global - Ask Forstrong - Invest With Us -
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Podcast From China: Beijing's Policy Shockwaves
10/08/2024
Podcast From China: Beijing's Policy Shockwaves
Over the past year, China has grappled with escalating challenges—from a real estate meltdown to tech crackdowns and slowing growth—leading many investors to deem the country "un-investable." However, recent policy moves from Beijing, including significant interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, may point to a major inflection point ahead. In this episode, Rob Duncan speaks with Forstrong’s Research Analyst, Shibo Gu, on the ground in Northern China. Together, they unpack the latest stimulus measures and their potential impact on investors eyeing opportunities in the world’s second-largest economy. Is this renewed optimism justified, or should caution still prevail? Chapters 00:00 Introduction to China's Economic Landscape 03:28 Stimulus Measures and Their Implications 08:42 Investment Opportunities in the Wake of Stimulus 12:04 Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment 18:09 On-the-Ground Insights from China Previous posts on visiting China.
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Keep Calm and “Carry” On – Seizing Global Opportunities in a Shifting ETF Market
08/22/2024
Keep Calm and “Carry” On – Seizing Global Opportunities in a Shifting ETF Market
Investors have been pouring into Canadian ETFs at an unprecedented rate in 2024. While cash and US equity ETFs have dominated flows this year, recent trends suggest a shift is underway. Weaker economic data and volatility in Japan have investors worried, while international markets present compelling opportunities. In the latest Global Thinking episode, Rob sits down with Daniel Straus, Director of ETF Research at National Bank, to discuss recent ETF trends and investment flows. Together, they explore why investors should focus on global opportunities and how to navigate the period ahead. Show Notes: 00:00 - Exploring ETF Flows and Market Trends 05:08 - The Growth of the ETF Market 08:25 - Fixed Income Flows and the Demand for Cash 12:41 - The Appeal of International and Emerging Market ETFs 15:47 - The Unwinding of the Carry Trade in Japan 19:59 - Interest Rate Policy and Rate Movements 22:55 - Canadian Equity ETF Inflows and Home Bias 23:25 - Investing in Canada's Energy Markets 25:16 - Canadian Banks: A Demand Spot 28:06 - The Growth of Active ETFs in Canada 30:25 - Covered Call ETFs: Present Income vs. Future Upside 37:46 - Exploring Consciousness and Free Will
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The Great Market Rotation: Is It For Real?
07/26/2024
The Great Market Rotation: Is It For Real?
When asked about the prognosis for markets, American financier J. P. Morgan once famously quipped, “they will fluctuate”. That statement is not meant to be dismissive of recent market volatility: the first half of 2024 has faced a long list of new realities from an AI fervour to contentious global elections. But, today more than ever, wealth accumulation demands a focus on fundamentals and looking beyond recent hype. Currently, there are historic opportunities to pivot into new investment themes as markets find a new footing and fresh macroeconomic trends emerge. In this discussion, Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer, sits down with Forstrong Portfolio Manager, Terry Shaunessy, to explore where investors might be succumbing to market exuberance and identifying strategies to navigate volatility while achieving their financial objectives. Disclosures:
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Navigating Nvidia’s Volatility: Keeping Your Head When Others May Have Lost Theirs
06/24/2024
Navigating Nvidia’s Volatility: Keeping Your Head When Others May Have Lost Theirs
Everyone is talking about Nvidia. Just 2 years ago the stock was worth a mere $400 billion. Now, depending on the time of day, it is worth somewhere around $3 trillion and was briefly the most valuable company in the world. Investors should not overcomplicate things here: Nvidia and the broader AI theme are in the midst of a speculative mania. Of course, we have been here before. Investment stories, much like the current one, can be intoxicating and lure every last investor into the trade. During such times, diversification seems unnecessary. Who wants it when “one and done” portfolio decisions look so easy? Yet, investors invariably paying heavily for having taken on concentrated risk exposures. The late 1990s are a prime example. At times like this, it is always useful to revisit the role of the portfolio manager: why do clients pay us to manage their wealth? It is not for flawless clairvoyance. Rather, we are paid to anticipate probable risks, prepare for opportunities and, importantly, not lose our proverbial minds when everyone else has lost theirs. In the latest podcast, Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer, sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO & CIO of Forstrong, to discuss the recent volatility in Nvidia and implications for the broader market.
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Canadian ETFs - A Bull Market in the Making
06/04/2024
Canadian ETFs - A Bull Market in the Making
Canadian ETF inflows continued at a brisk pace in May, bringing the year-to-date number to more than $24 billion (handily beating their mutual fund counterparts). Total assets now stand at more than $432 billion with 1407 ETFs to choose from. With all this selection, how do investors know which ETF to buy? To help answer these questions Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer at Forstrong, sits down with Patrick McEntyre, Managing Director and Co-Head of Institutional Sales of ETFs at National Bank Financial Group, to discuss: Key trends within the ETF industry Where investors are allocating funds How changes in ETF flows align with Forstrong’s investment outlook and positioning In addition, Patrick walks through how National Bank provides liquidity on large trades, when ETFs can be more efficient than stocks and bonds, and why the rush to International and Emerging Market equities might be at a tipping point.
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2024’s Rotation Trade Continues
05/07/2024
2024’s Rotation Trade Continues
Looking back on the month of April, it was a tough time for many investors. Broadly, many stock market sectors broke their winning streak. Bonds didn’t fare any better as continued strong global economic data pressured long-term yields higher. As the macro regime continues to unfold, Forstrong’s investment team continues to believe the world is transitioning toward an inflationary boom. Increased volatility is a key tenet of this shifting economic landscape. But the theme of broadening performance (away from the handful of US mega-cap stocks which carried markets last year) is alive and well. In April, commodity-sensitive exposures and emerging markets equities staged impressive rallies. In this episode, Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to unpack these latest development. They also dive into why an improving outlook in emerging markets could lead to outsized returns this year.
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Is US equity still the easiest asset allocation decision?
04/09/2024
Is US equity still the easiest asset allocation decision?
US equities have taken center stage over the last few years and are touching all-time highs as consumers continue to show strength with healthy balance sheets and less sensitivity to higher interest rates. But is all this good news already priced in? What may be surprising is that returns are no longer being powered primarily by the “Magnificent 7”. Instead, forgotten and unloved sectors are now witnessing a steady bid. In this episode Rob sits with BMO’s Chief Investment Officer, Sadiq Adatia, to talk about their recent market outlook and why they believe a broadening market rally is in the cards for 2024. While high quality and financials in the US are in focus, gold and commodity-oriented equities could see a continuation of strength.
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Interest Rate Obsession
03/29/2024
Interest Rate Obsession
Interest Rate Obsession: Are Markets Missing the Bigger Picture? Markets have found a new obsession to dote upon: timing central bank rate cutes. Everywhere you look, interest rate expectations continue to dominate headlines and market narratives. Imminent recession fears have been replaced with questions on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, but interest rates are only part of the story. The larger trend is the impressive resilience not only of the US economy but also in other parts of the world. After pricing in up to 6 rate cuts to start the year investor expectations have quickly scaled back to 3. One could even wonder, are we actually in the “no landing” economy? In this episode Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to talk about expectations on rate cuts and the possibility of a “Bull Steepening” on the yield curve. Additionally, they walk through Forstrong’s recent strategy changes and why they see greater opportunity in US mid-caps, Emerging Markets debt and Swedish equities. For more information on our podcasts please visit:
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Global Thinking Market Update with Franklin Templeton
03/20/2024
Global Thinking Market Update with Franklin Templeton
In this episode Rob sits down with Michael Greenberg, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, to ask questions about their market outlook and where they see opportunity in the year ahead. Throughout the podcast Mike shares his perspectives on inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts, concentration in US equity’s “AI enablers” and Bitcoin’s impact on portfolio returns. While Mike remains positive on the US avoiding a recession and continued equity performance, he makes an interesting case for opportunities within Emerging Markets. Tune in to hear more. For more information on our podcasts please visit: Bio: Michael Greenberg is a senior vice president and portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions and is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee. Mike specializes in fixed income strategy and has co-portfolio management responsibilities for all Canada-based managed programs, including Franklin Quotential, Franklin LifeSmart Sustainable and Franklin ETF Portfolios. He also manages institutional mandates in North America. Mike holds a bachelor of commerce with honors in marketing and international management from the University of Ottawa. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designations.
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Running with Bulls - Is the Market Rally Broadening?
03/04/2024
Running with Bulls - Is the Market Rally Broadening?
One year ago, market forecasters were in absolute agreement. A Bloomberg consensus survey showed that 100% of the respondents predicted a global recession in 2023. Rising interest rates would surely create an inevitable “hard landing”. When such agreement exists in the investment world one must ask the obvious question, “What don’t we already know?”. Since then, fears over hard landings have vanished as the powerful surge in US-led growth has thinned out the recession camp. But less discussed is that economic activity outside America has also firmed, led by a liftoff in global trade. Does this mean that the bull market in US stocks will also start broadening out? We think so. In fact, investor optimism has created bull markets from New York to Tokyo. Japan, France, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Taiwan, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Brazil, and India are in or near bull market territory touching highs last seen in the Post Covid rally. So, what don’t we already know? As the Magnificent 7 continue to grab headlines and push prices and valuations to historical highs, opportunities for a follow through trade are all around us. In this episode Rob and Tyler discuss why a broadening rally is so important and how best to position portfolios to profit from this emerging macro trend.
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Macro Musings from A Latam Perspective
02/13/2024
Macro Musings from A Latam Perspective
On this episode Rob sits down with our good friend Rodrigo Gordillo from Resolve Asset Management. Rodrigo has a fascinating background and shares how hyperinflation in 1980s Peru shaped his life and investment philosophy. He also discusses why emerging markets have been more proactive in combating inflation over the last few years, and why inflation volatility will be higher this decade than the last. For more information on our podcasts please visit:
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Bonds, Bitcoin and The Biggest Year Ever For Democracy
01/23/2024
Bonds, Bitcoin and The Biggest Year Ever For Democracy
Welcome back to all our listeners. This is now Season 4 of the Forstrong Global Thinking podcast and there is no shortage of topics to dive into. In this episode Rob sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO and CIO, to discuss which macro trends are shaping the investment landscape. Looking back, last year was one of heightened risk aversion: some $1.3 trillion dollars ran into global money market funds. Meanwhile, our investment team has a thesis that may stretch minds: we are entering a new risk-taking cycle based on an entirely different set of macroeconomic conditions and investment leadership. As 2024 progresses, Forstrong forecasts recession fears will again recede, and aggressive rate cut expectations will be unwound. Tune-in to hear why shifts away from cash will lead to a big rotation into the cheap, cyclically sensitive and inflation hedging assets. Click if you would like to subscribe to our weekly emails. Forstrong Super Trends - Ask Forstrong -
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Shifting Market Narratives - Higher for Longer Hits Home
10/20/2023
Shifting Market Narratives - Higher for Longer Hits Home
The US bond selloff over the last few years is on par with the largest ever in history. In this podcast Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to discuss market performance and what “higher for longer” interest rates means for investors. While this new environment has dampened confidence and has everyone running into the perceived safety of cash, the reality is that cash rarely outperforms risk assets for extended periods. Meanwhile, several investment opportunities have now become more attractive, given lower valuations, higher yields and — given extremely negative sentiment — the potential for upside surprise to materialize.
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What Happens When AI Gets Real, Part 2
06/16/2023
What Happens When AI Gets Real, Part 2
In part 1, Rob Duncan sat down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager at KJ Harrison, to discuss the big ideas behind Artificial Intelligence and what impact it may have on the future In part 2, Rob and Reza discuss the implications of AI from an investment perspective. Is this Dot Com 2.0? Will investors benefit from an unfolding capex cycle driven by AI? Are valuations on AI-related stocks justifiable? Tune in as they discuss the next phase of AI and where investors should direct their attention.
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What Happens When AI Gets Real?
05/17/2023
What Happens When AI Gets Real?
Last month 2,600 tech industry professionals signed a petition led by Elon Musk and Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak, to halt AI development until there was a clear understanding of its full implications. Although he did not sign the letter, Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called “Godfather of AI”, resigned from Google to warn the world stating, "AI could be a greater threat to humankind than climate change". In this part 1 of this 2-part series, Rob sits down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager at KJ Harrison, to discuss the big ideas behind artificial intelligence and what impacts it may have for humans overall. Will we all be out of a job? When will it become sentient? In part 2, Rob will speak with Reza again to discuss the implications of AI from a macro investing perspective. Reza Samahin, P.Eng, CFA Portfolio Manager Reza Samahin is a Portfolio Manager and a member of the KJH Investment Team. Reza focuses exclusively on investing in global technology companies. Reza has over 20 years combined experience in capital markets and the technology industry. Prior to joining KJ Harrison Investors in 2011, Reza was a Portfolio Manager at Natcan Investment Management Ltd. and Altamira Management Ltd. where he was a Lipper Fund Award recipient in the Technology category. Reza is a Professional Engineer and has held management positions at Amdocs Inc., Algorithmics Ltd. and IBM Labs. Reza received a Bachelor of Applied Science (Engineering Science) from the University of Toronto.
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Postcard from China, Part 2
05/11/2023
Postcard from China, Part 2
It has been four long years since Forstrong last visited mainland China. In that time, the country faced a real estate collapse, technology crackdowns and more than 1100 days of brutal lockdowns. Given the size and scale of China’s influence on the global economy, their reopening is something that smart investors need to monitor. After a month on the mainland Shibo Gu, Forstrong’s Research Analyst, sits down with Rob to talk about his firsthand experiences and Forstrong outlook on the awakening of the world’s second largest economy. Additionally, they discuss whether the recent Alibaba spinoffs are a positive for the sector and which emerging countries are best positioned to benefit from the reopening.
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Is The Developed World Slowing Down?
04/14/2023
Is The Developed World Slowing Down?
Coming off a surprisingly resilient Q1, Global Equities staged a rally for a second quarter despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and renewed fears of another 2008 financial crisis. While US markets staged a late rally to pull ahead of Canada, International markets continue to be global leaders. In this episode of Global Thinking, Rob sits down with Forstrong’s Lead PM, David Kletz, to hear about structural changes impacting global markets and why International and Emerging Market equities might have a leg up over their American counterparts. To top it off, David shares some macro insights into Japan and why a rally could be imminent.
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Global Thinking Invité spécial - Clément Gignac
03/23/2023
Global Thinking Invité spécial - Clément Gignac
Cette semaine, nous avons un invité très spécial pour notre podcast "Global Thinking". Omar Rayes de Forstrong s'assoit une deuxième fois avec l'Honorable Clément Gignac. Clément a eu une longue et brillante carrière dans les secteurs public et privé. Sur la scène internationale, il a présidé en 2012 le Conseil de l'agenda mondial sur la compétitivité (division du Forum économique mondial). Il est également membre associé de la Conference of Business Economists, un groupe d'éminents économistes mondiaux basé à Washington, D.C. Il est maintenant membre du Sénat du Canada. De 2012 jusqu'à sa récente nomination à titre de sénateur indépendant, M. Gignac a occupé le poste d'économiste en chef chez iA Groupe financier. Il était le porte-parole du Groupe sur les questions économiques et présidait le Comité d'Allocation d'Actifs. Avant de se joindre à iA Groupe financier, M. Gignac a travaillé comme économiste et stratège pour de grandes institutions financières, notamment comme économiste en chef pour la Financière Banque Nationale de 2000 à 2008. Clément est également un ami de longue date de la firme et a travaillé en étroite collaboration avec notre équipe de gestion de placements dans le passé. Dans cette vidéo, Omar et Clément discutent de la récente hausse des taux de la FED, de l'effondrement de la banque SVB et des principaux facteurs macroéconomiques, notamment l'inflation et la perspective d'une récession.
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