Hidden Forces

Get the edge with Hidden Forces where media entrepreneur and financial analyst Demetri Kofinas gives you access to the people and ideas that matter, so you can build financial security and always stay ahead of the curve.

In The Future China Will Be Dominant & the US Irrelevant | Kyle Chan 06/02/2025

In The Future China Will Be Dominant & the US Irrelevant | Kyle Chan In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kyle Chan—an expert on the Chinese economy and China’s industrial policy—about why he believes China is poised to dominate high-end technology and manufacturing, and why factories worldwide will reorganize their supply chains with China at the center, as the world’s preeminent technological and economic superpower. Kyle and Demetri spend the first hour dissecting China’s industrial policy and dispelling misconceptions about the historical foundations of economic prosperity. Their discussion highlights the reciprocal interactions among the state, financial capitalism, and the market economy—dynamics that have driven the technological revolutions transforming modern life over the past two centuries. In the second hour, Chan and Kofinas delve deeper into China’s playbook, drawing lessons for the United States. They outline policy choices that are both self-evident and broadly bipartisan: investing in research and development; forging strategically important economic ties with other nations; and fostering a welcoming, attractive climate for international talent and capital. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 04/20/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/36805865

The Path Through Financial Repression | Charles Calomiris 05/27/2025

Empire of AI: Inside OpenAI’s Race to Conquer the Future | Karen Hao 05/19/2025

Narrative Collapse & the Search for New Theories | Pippa Malmgren 05/15/2025

Dangerous Dependency: Apple & the Rise of China | Patrick McGee 05/12/2025

Dangerous Dependency: Apple & the Rise of China | Patrick McGee In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Financial Times correspondent Patrick McGee about the integral role Apple played in helping to build China’s advanced manufacturing ecosystem—and the geopolitical interdependencies and national security risks now baked into that relationship. McGee’s book “Apple in China” tells two stories. First, it chronicles Apple’s ascent from being nearly bankrupt in the mid‑1990s to becoming the world’s most valuable company within just 15 years. Second, it traces China’s historic transformation from an underdeveloped economy with Third‑World cost structures and armies of unskilled laborers to the world’s largest economy (by purchasing power parity) and the hub of the most advanced manufacturing base on the planet. By the time this episode is over, you will have learned exactly how Apple off-loaded almost all its manufacturing to Asia by the late 1990s and early 2000s and then consolidated that entire operation inside mainland China. You will also learn how the same supply chain mastery that turned Apple into the world’s most valuable company has left it existentially dependent on a single authoritarian state whose political goals now diverge sharply from Washington’s. It's an incredible story with profound implications for all of us who depend on China’s manufacturing prowess and intricate supply networks to sustain our way of life. Whether we can extricate ourselves from this web of interdependencies—and the extent to which we should even want to—is one of a number of topics we explore extensively in the episode’s second hour. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 05/01/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/36411665

Wealth Preservation During a Fourth Turning | Russell Napier 05/08/2025

Wealth Preservation During a Fourth Turning | Russell Napier is the third episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with some of the smartest and most plugged-in people they know to help them navigate the once-in-a-century economic, political, and geopolitical reordering that is currently underway. In this episode Kofinas and Williams speak with economic historian, author of “The Solid Ground Newsletter” and Keeper of the Library of Mistakes, Russell Napier about the end of the economic, monetary, and global trading & security order that has been the largest single driver of global growth over the last thirty years. The consequences of the changes discussed for economic and national security, social cohesion, investment, and wealth preservation are nothing short of tectonic. Points of discussion include: The Trump administration’s economic and trade strategy Efforts to isolate China The creation of new monetary systems The search for new safe assets The realignment of global power The escalating risk of war with China There is also a long and detailed discussion about how investors can position themselves for: The accelerating repatriation of capital flows The onset of capital controls A prolonged period of financial repression in which wealth preservation will take precedence over making money and chasing outsized financial returns. If you want early access to this conversation, subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 04/25/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/36322095

How To Monetize Government Policy | Mark Spindel 05/05/2025

Trump’s First 100 Days and What Comes After | Neil Howe 05/01/2025

Will the U.S. Dollar Survive the Breakdown of the International System? | Paul Blustein 04/28/2025

Will the U.S. Dollar Survive the Breakdown of the International System? | Paul Blustein In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with financial journalist and economic historian, Paul Blustein about the U.S. Dollar’s historical resiliency in the face of international shocks and crises, and whether Dollar hegemony can survive the breakdown of the international capital and trading system. In the first hour, Kofinas and Blustein trace how the U.S. dollar became the de facto currency for global trade, savings, and investment and what recent policy shifts in Washington—and how they have been perceived abroad—may mean for the future value and status of the Greenback. The second hour builds on this foundation as Paul and Demetri speculate about what the future holds for dollar hegemony in a world characterized by growing trade protectionism, a breakdown in international cooperation, and a potentially irreparable loss of confidence among foreign investors in U.S. leadership and in the strength and reliability of U.S. capital markets. This could not be a timelier conversation about a subject whose ramifications will continue to play out over many years if not decades to come. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 04/23/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/36271845

The Economic Fallout from Trump’s China Tariffs | Shehzad Qazi 04/21/2025

Capital Wars and the Death of Fiscal Illusions | Paulo Macro & Le Shrub 04/17/2025

Capital Wars and the Death of Fiscal Illusions | Paulo Macro & Le Shrub In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investors Paulo Macro and Le Shrub about the consequences of a breakdown in the international capital and trading system—and what this means for markets and investor portfolios. The first hour revisits last year’s discussion on “EM-ification,” the breakdown of the rules-based global order, and the urgent search for a new safe asset in a world of deteriorating fiscal balance sheets. Together, Demetri, Paulo, and Le Shrub map out what investors should be paying attention to in the year ahead. In the second hour, the conversation turns to the implications of a full-blown trade and capital war, including: The impact on U.S. assets—especially Treasuries and the dollar—if surplus nations redirect their capital flows away from the United States Resurgent inflation fueled by strategic rearmament and industrial policy A potential decoupling from—and even a hot war with—China The abandonment of fiscal restraint in the face of an economic slowdown amid persistently high or rising borrowing costs for the U.S. government The risk of massive wealth destruction triggered by a dramatic revaluation of the U.S. dollar Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 04/15/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/36188670

The Hundred Year Pivot | A New Podcast Series by Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams 04/14/2025

The Hundred Year Pivot | A New Podcast Series by Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams have teamed up to launch “,” a new podcast series that explores the once-in-a-century economic, political, and geopolitical reordering currently underway. These transformational changes demand that we develop new maps and investment frameworks to help us navigate the challenges ahead. Over the course of the series, Grant and Demetri will be speaking with the smartest and most plugged-in people they know to help us chart a path through this gathering storm and position ourselves, our organizations, our families, and our portfolios for the changes to come. You are invited to join them on this journey as they explore the implications of: The breakdown of existing political, monetary, and social institutions The emergence of new economic and financial trading blocks The reprioritization of national and economic security The channeling of national savings into a new military and technological arms race The development of a new investment paradigm with historic implications for investors Premium subscribers to the Hidden Forces podcast and the Grant Williams Podcast will have early access to the episodes in this ongoing series. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 04/08/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/36086105

Are We About to Enter the First White-Collar Recession? | James van Geelen 04/07/2025

Are We About to Enter the First White-Collar Recession? | James van Geelen In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with James van Geelen, the founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative “megatrends” poised to shape societies, economies, and the market’s distribution of returns for years to come. James and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring a series of narratives and investment themes—including Trump’s recent tariff announcement—that have captivated markets and that are likely to be highly determinative of investor returns in the years to come. They discuss the investment implications of a fundamental reorganization of the global economy, along with its supply chains, energy systems, and underlying technological foundations, to say nothing about the changing relationship of government and fiscal policy to the economy and asset markets. In the second hour, Citrini and Kofinas dig deeper into some of the more consequential themes that they identify in the first hour, including: The wealth-driven white-collar recession that could accelerate the adoption of AI and rapidly reshape the workforce. The rotation out of U.S. equities as America turns to fiscal austerity and as countries in Europe and Asia engage in massive fiscal stimulus. The implications for America’s Democratic party base if its supporters increasingly find themselves out of work and under threat by the policies and changes underway in the new economy. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 04/03/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/36002615

Why Fiscal Policy Is What Really Matters For Investors | Kevin Muir 03/31/2025

Navigating the Twin Crises of the 2020s | George Friedman 03/24/2025

Navigating the Twin Crises of the 2020s | George Friedman In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with renowned geopolitical analyst and forecaster George Friedman about the pivotal institutional and socioeconomic cycles that shape historical events—and how their convergence is driving the economic and political crises of the 2020s. George and Demetri examine critical turning points in American history, including Andrew Jackson’s abolition of the Second Bank of the United States (which financed westward expansion), the presidency of Rutherford B. Hayes (and the Long Depression), the consumer-driven growth wave following FDR’s 1930s reforms, and the neoliberal era sparked by the Reagan Revolution. In the second hour, Friedman and Kofinas apply this framework to the era we are living in today, which according to George, is the first time in American history that both the 80-year institutional cycle and 50-year socioeconomic cycle are occurring concurrently. They discuss how (and why) so-called “woke ideology” and a sclerotic and ineffective bureaucracy are symptoms of the end of the institutional cycle and why the economic policies of this new era will lead to more capital investment and a revitalization of the American economy. Lastly, George provides listeners with a roadmap for geopolitical events in the 21st century that includes reconciliation with Putin’s Russia, a new paradigm of peace in the middle east, and a long and challenging period of economic weakness in China that will consume the energies of the Chinese communist party and challenge the PRC’s ability to assert itself on the global stage for at least the next several decades. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 03/17/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/35795185

Is the US at Risk of Losing the Long-Game to China? | Rush Doshi 03/17/2025

Is the US at Risk of Losing the Long-Game to China? | Rush Doshi In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rush Doshi, former Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan on the National Security Council about the state of the U.S.-China competition, the Trump administration’s China policy, and how the United States can compete successfully with China without risking imperial overreach or bankrupting the nation. Foreign policy in the first two months of the Trump administration has focused predominantly on ending America’s war in Ukraine, resetting U.S. commitments to Europe through NATO, reasserting dominance over the Western Hemisphere, and rebalancing trade relationships with both allies and competitors. What has not been clearly articulated in the Trump administration’s public communications is how America’s grand strategic vision—and any potential “Trump doctrine”—will look over the next four years, how China fits into that vision, and how success should be measured. Demetri and Rush begin their conversation by reviewing Chinese party documents, materials, and analyses of China’s communications, conduct, and behavior over the last three decades to understand Beijing’s intentions and how they should shape U.S. policy during a time of waning relative American power amid a geopolitical rebalancing. They examine the new bipartisan consensus on China, discuss the Trump administration’s strategic foreign policy tactics and objectives—including the use of tariffs and incentives to rebuild American industrial capacity—and explore how the United States can successfully compete with China without risking imperial overreach or bankrupting the nation. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 03/11/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/35653860

Living In Wonder: Finding Mystery and Meaning in a Secular Age | Rod Dreher 03/10/2025

Ending the Ukraine War: A Reset in U.S.-Russia Relations? | Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Michael Kofman 03/03/2025

A Turning Point for Value Investing | Mark Holowesko 02/17/2025

A Turning Point for Value Investing | Mark Holowesko In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Mark Holowesko, the founding Partner and Chief Executive Officer of Holowesko Partners—a Bahamian-based, value-oriented investment firm that allocates capital across a wide range of industries, geographies, and market capitalizations. This episode is part of a series in which Demetri interviews value investors, motivated by his concerns about how the global economy’s direction and the ongoing geostrategic competition between the U.S. and China will impact asset markets in the coming years. In the first hour, Holowesko and Kofinas discuss: Mark’s macro framework and approach to value investing His concerns about government debt and its implications for interest rates and inflation Trends in global liquidity The future direction of the U.S. dollar Why Holowesko believes that 2022 marked a long-term turning point for value investing—with enormous implications for investors In the second hour, Mark and Demetri explore some of the most promising investment opportunities outside the United States—particularly in the UK and Japan—as well as how to assess similar opportunities in China, whether the country is investible, and the risks investors face when deploying capital in Chinese companies and the broader Chinese market. They also delve deeper into Mark’s investment process, his views on the role of gold in one’s portfolio, opportunities in the U.S. energy sector, and much more. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 02/11/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/35261285

Navigating the Fourth Turning: Power, Technology, & Moral Decline | Demetri Kofinas 02/13/2025

Navigating the Fourth Turning: Power, Technology, & Moral Decline | Demetri Kofinas In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas shares his recent appearance on the Grant Williams podcast in which he and Grant discuss how the interplay of political power, technology, and moral decline in society are driving the unraveling of the social order as we pass through the final stages of what Neil Howe has famously described as “The Fourth Turning.” Demetri and Grant explore how cyclical historical theories apply to today’s turbulent geopolitics, emphasizing the rise of populism, shifting alliances, and eroding trust in institutions. Kofinas highlights the role of media in shaping collective narratives and exacerbating societal fault lines, while Williams calls attention to the erosion of personal accountability—an absence that fuels trends in financial nihilism and accelerates the broader moral decline of American life. This decay, they argue, extends to the country’s political structures and the integrity of its financial markets. The conversation also touches on the fragility of complex systems, from social structures to global financial frameworks, underscoring the need for intellectual rigor and ethical leadership. Throughout, they urge listeners to stay critical yet open-minded, balancing caution with the desire to seize opportunities that emerge from the transformative changes currently underway. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting . If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on , , , , , , or via our Writing us a review on & Joining our mailing list at Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at . Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 01/27/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/35260655

Taking the Chainsaw to Argentina's Bureaucracy | Federico Sturzenegger 02/10/2025

Is a Libertarian Revolution Underway in Argentina? | Bowtied Mara 02/03/2025

Is a Libertarian Revolution Underway in Argentina? | Bowtied Mara In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas interviews Bowtied Mara about Argentina’s political history, its economy, the local real estate market, the energy sector, and President Javier Milei’s efforts to revive growth, combat inflation, and liberalize the country’s economy. In the first hour, Mara and Demetri explore Argentina’s political history and the roots of its economic decline, drawing comparisons with the United States during the pivotal decades of the 1930s and 1940s. They delve into the legacy of Juan Perón, the significance of Peronismo in Argentine politics, what defines a Peronista, and why Javier Milei’s libertarian approach and his election as Argentina’s 59th president mark a departure from the country’s history of alternating between Marxist and fascist regimes. In the second hour, the discussion shifts to Milei’s master plan, his initial priorities upon taking office, and the strategies he’s employing to achieve his political goals. They examine specific policy changes already enacted through his use of emergency powers, such as reforms to Argentina’s price control system, export tariffs, privatization initiatives, and measures aimed at cutting through decades of bureaucratic red tape to liberalize the economy. The conversation also touches on Argentina’s ‘crawling peg,’ efforts to align the official peso-USD exchange rate with the unofficial blue rate, the introduction of competing currencies, and Milei’s controversial push to abolish the Central Bank of Argentina. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 01/27/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/35058930

Finding Value in an Upside-down World | Charles Heenan & Geoff Legg 01/27/2025

Finding Value in an Upside-down World | Charles Heenan & Geoff Legg In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kennox Strategic Value Fund investment directors Charles Heenan and Geoff Legg about their investment framework and macro worldview. Known for their focus on top-quality, sector-leading companies, Charles and Geoff share valuable insights about what it takes to build and manage a portfolio with a long-term, value-driven perspective. This conversation explores the challenge of finding value in a world that seems to have gone absolutely insane. Not only are developed economies facing challenges and confronting headwinds that require us to think differently about investment risk, but many market participants seem to be increasingly indifferent to value as an anchor for assessing an asset’s investment worthiness and the price they are willing to pay in order to own it. In the first hour, Demetri asks Charles Heenan and Geoff Legg about their value investment framework and how it informs—and is shaped by—their macro worldview. They also delve into the process and philosophy guiding their investment decisions, including how they are positioning themselves for a world characterized by structurally high inflation, geopolitical risk, and capital controls. In the second hour, the discussion takes a deeper dive into investment philosophy and the qualities required to be a successful investor. Topics include the distinction between luck and skill, the balance between action and patience, the importance of being risk-focused rather than optimizing for returns, and why the skills that generate success as an entrepreneur or founder could be detrimental to your performance as an investor. The audience also gets a first-hand look into Charles’ and Geoff’s rigorous process for evaluating potential investments. They share their perspectives on various sectors and asset classes, including energy companies, gold miners, telecom providers, retailers, and other businesses across the United States, Europe, and Asia. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 01/20/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34929825

What’s Driving the Rise in Long-Term Bond Yields? | Jim Bianco 01/20/2025

What’s Driving the Rise in Long-Term Bond Yields? | Jim Bianco In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, about the macroeconomic factors driving the recent rise in bond yields and a range of other variables shaping the economies of the U.S., Europe, and China, as well as their impact on investors' portfolios. In the first hour, Bianco and Kofinas analyze the factors behind the surge in long-term interest rates across the developed world. Their discussion covers the Federal Reserve's role, concerns about government debt and deficits, inflation, tariff policies, and economic growth expectations amid these potential challenges. In the second hour, they shift their focus to the implications of these changes for investors. They explore the resilience—or lack thereof—of the traditional 60/40 portfolio and strategies for mitigating portfolio volatility in a market environment where stocks and bonds increasingly move in tandem. Additionally, Demetri and Jim examine the drivers of U.S. dollar strength, the risks posed by U.S. equity concentration, the potential for a recession, and what the continued decline in Chinese bond yields suggests about the state of China's economy. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 01/14/2025 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34855255

Extinction of Experience: Being Human in a Disembodied World | Christine Rosen 01/06/2025

Extinction of Experience: Being Human in a Disembodied World | Christine Rosen In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Christine Rosen about her book, “Extinction of Experience: Being Human in a Disembodied World,” which explores the cultural and emotional shifts that accompany our embrace of technology and its effects on our experience of life as embodied human beings. Christine is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she focuses on American history, society and culture, and technology and human behavior. Rosen is also a monthly columnist for Commentary Magazine, one of the cohosts of the popular Commentary Podcast. Demetri and Christine spend the first hour of their conversation focused on the philosophical and moral questions that arise from our unreserved embrace of virtual realities and mediated experiences. They explore questions about the nature of reality, how embodiment shapes experience, and whether the virtualization of our lives is the natural progression of our interplay with technology or if it represents something fundamentally different and profoundly immoral about the world we are building. In the second hour, Kofinas and Rosen discuss the effect that these technologies and the logic that animates them have on our sense of self, agency, and freedom. They explore how time spent inside virtual spaces hosted on large tech platforms may be contributing to the rising levels of depression, anxiety, antisociality, and other mental and personality disorders that we may or may not recognize in each other and in ourselves. They also discuss what can and should be done, both at an individual and societal level, to begin to address the problem. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 12/17/2024 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34662980

Investing in Argentina, AI, and More in 2025 | Zach Abraham & Chase Taylor 12/30/2024

Investing in Argentina, AI, and More in 2025 | Zach Abraham & Chase Taylor In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor about the recent revision in the Fed’s summary of economic projections, the investment opportunities in Latin America, the economic effects of the war in Syria, the state of the outgoing Biden administration, and the economic prospects associated with a second and more invigorated Trump administration in 2025. They spend the first hour discussing how Fed policy, demographics, and systematic passive flows continue to drive mean reversion in equity markets and whether the most recent drawdown is yet another opportunity to buy-the-dip or if the downside risk to investors is beginning to outweigh the fear of missing out on the next rally. In the second hour, Demetri, Zach, and Chase discuss the political and economic experiment being undertaken by Javier Milei’s administration in Argentina, whether the country is becoming investable again, how it may serve as a role model for neighboring countries in Latin America, and how Chase and Zach are approaching this potentially enormous investment opportunity. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 12/20/2024 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34601170

The Fall of Damascus and the New Geopolitics of the Middle East | Kamran Bokhari 12/16/2024

The Fall of Damascus and the New Geopolitics of the Middle East | Kamran Bokhari In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical analyst and forecaster Kamran Bokhari about the fall of Damascus and the implications of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in Syria for the balance of power in the Middle East. Kamran last came on the podcast a year ago to discuss the violence ignited by Hamas’ October 7th attacks, the nature and scope of Iranian involvement, and how various regional actors, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and Hezbollah were exploiting the growing disorder for their own advantage as the Biden administration struggled to stabilize a region that was on the verge of another major war. That war has seemingly come and gone, leaving Iran’s influence network along the Shia crescent from Damascus to Beirut, along with its proxies and affiliates in utter devastation or full-on retreat. Assad’s departure and the fall of his regime in Syria are the equivalent of a geopolitical earthquake and are already dramatically changing the balance of power in the Middle East. Kamran and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode recapping these recent events, enumerating the key players who expect a seat at the table for any negotiation over Syria’s future, why the center of gravity in the Sunni Muslim world is shifting from Riyadh to Ankara, and what all of this means for Iran and the strategic vision that has guided the Islamic revolution since 1979. In the second hour, Kofinas and Bokhari go one by one through every major country that will be materially affected by the outcome in Syria. They discuss the consequences and opportunities for Turkey, the new threats and challenges posed to Israel, what this new reality means for the Saudis, the interests of the United States and Russia, and why el-Sisi's regime in Egypt may be the next major Arab government to come under pressure in the years to come. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 12/09/2024 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34370880

Will AI Generate a New Growth Wave of Creative Destruction? | Herman Mark Schwartz 12/09/2024

Will AI Generate a New Growth Wave of Creative Destruction? | Herman Mark Schwartz In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Herman Mark Schwartz, a professor in the Politics department of the University of Virginia and the author of three books on economic development, globalization, and the geopolitics of the subprime mortgage crisis. Demetri and Mark discuss an article that he recently co-authored in American Affairs about AI’s potential to create a new growth wave of creative destruction that could rival or surpass those of previous innovation cycles, with enormous implications for business, society, and the role of government in the economy. They discuss what these so-called “Schumpeterian” growth waves typically look like, how they create complex interactions across all facets of the economy, and how they ultimately exhaust themselves, making room for the birth of a new innovation cycle. In the second hour, Mark and Demetri apply this framework to the growth wave that we have been living through for more or less the last 50 years and which now appears to be in the late stages of endogenous decay. They examine three scenarios for what might come next. The first is an extension of the current wave, the second is a new paradigm driven by AI as the key general-purpose technology, and the third is neither an extension of the current wave nor a transition to a new paradigm, but rather a series of crises characterized by commodity shortages, energy insecurity, political polarization, and global conflict. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 12/02/2024 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34272600

National Capitalism & Death of the International Monetary System | Russell Napier 12/02/2024

National Capitalism & Death of the International Monetary System | Russell Napier In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author, investor, and financial historian , about how to navigate a seminal transition in the global trade and monetary order. This episode aims to provide you with the tools to understand, value, and manage the assets, exposures, and risks in your portfolios and to capitalize on opportunities that come along only once every hundred years. In the first hour, Demetri and Russell Napier discuss the origins of the non-system that came to shape international trade and finance in the decades after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international system of fixed exchange rates. They discuss the de-pegging of the RMB from the USD, the closing of the gap between the discount rate and the growth rate in developed economies, and the implications of America’s escalating economic war against China. In the second hour, which is available to premium subscribers only, Russell Napier and Kofinas focus most of their time on the implications of this breakdown in the international trade and monetary system for investors. They discuss how developed world governments are likely to repress capital, what you want to own in such a world, what you don’t want to own, and how to tell the difference. They also discuss what a new Chinese monetary order might look like, which countries would participate, and how such a system would build off China’s efforts to digitize the Yuan and create a Chinese-built digital payments infrastructure that extends beyond China’s borders as part of the Digital Silk Road initiative. They also discuss the prospects for a strategic Bitcoin fund, the use of stablecoins as an extension of Dollar hegemony, and the fate of the Euro in a world torn between Beijing and Washington. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 11/27/2024 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34187100

The End of the German Economic Miracle | Wolfgang Münchau 11/25/2024

The End of the German Economic Miracle | Wolfgang Münchau In of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Wolfgang Münchau, the director and co-founder of Eurointelligence and the author of a phenomenal new book about post-WWII Germany, the rise and fall of the German economy, its industrial sector, and the end of what he dubs “The German Miracle.” Wolfgang Münchau and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode laying the foundation to help listeners understand how Germany became the economic and financial juggernaut that we have known it to be throughout the 1990s and most of the 21st century. They discuss the two pillars of the German economy, the supercharging of its industrial growth model during the period of globalization and unipolarity, and the cultural, technological, and geopolitical sources of its economic decline. In the second hour, Kofinas and Münchau zero in on the ten structural sources of weakness for the German economy, including the German capital model and banking system, a corporatism that misaligns incentives between the interests of politicians and those of the economy, the fiscal doomsday machine in the form of Germany’s debt brake, a radicalizing electorate, and a political mindset among German elite that treats geopolitical risk as an economic externality to be safely discounted or ignored entirely. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at . If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at . If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on | | | | | | Write us a review on & Subscribe to our mailing list at Producer & Host: Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at Join the conversation on , , and at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at Episode Recorded on 11/19/2024 /episode/index/show/hiddenforces/id/34018947

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