The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

Join hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor, as they discuss the latest e-commerce and digital shopper marketing news and trends.

EP344 - How Brooklinen Is Preparing for Agentic Commerce 08/07/2026

E343 - Amazon Q2 2026 Earnings 08/03/2026

EP342 - The End of the Attention Economy, and What Retail Does Next with Mitch Joel 07/31/2026

EP 341- Agentic Commerce with Travis Hess, CEO of Commerce 07/10/2026

EP 340 — Ron Johnson, the Man Who Built the Apple Store 07/02/2026

EP 340 — Ron Johnson, the Man Who Built the Apple Store We're unapologetic fanboys of Apple and great retail experiences on this show, so for Apple's 50th anniversary — and the 25th anniversary of the first Apple Store — we brought on the person who actually created the modern Apple Store concept: Ron Johnson. Ron built his career in 10-year cycles, and each one changed retail. At Target, he dreamed up the first designer collaboration in retail history (Michael Graves) and helped turn a Midwest discounter into a place people bragged about shopping. At Apple, he opened the first stores in 2001 — when Gateway was folding, Dell was winning, and everyone thought a 5%-market-share computer company had no business signing mall leases. He named the Genius Bar (Steve Jobs told him nobody would buy it), killed the cash register with a mobile checkout built on an iPod Touch, and left in 2012 with a million people a day walking into Apple Stores. Then he took the hardest job in retail — CEO of JCPenney — and he's refreshingly honest here about what went wrong. What we get into: → The Michael Graves deal, and why "design" beat "fashion" at Target → Why Steve Jobs hated the idea of mall stores — and how Ron changed his mind → Where the Genius Bar name came from, and the meaning behind it → Killing the cash wrap: mobile checkout in 2008, self-checkout in 2010 → Spending the morning of 9/11 with Steve Jobs → JCPenney, situational arrogance, and the change-management lesson he owns → Why omnichannel won — stores didn't, online didn't → What agentic commerce and AI actually do to shopping (and Satya Nadella's "token capital") Ron's book, , comes out September 22nd from HarperCollins. It's built around the Harvard Business School case study of his career — Harvard's most popular first-year case — and it's going to be one of the must-reads of the fall for anyone who loves retail. Links to buy it are in the show notes. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy.AI and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 340 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded on Friday, June 19th, 2026 /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/41940940

You May Also Enjoy: RetailPlaybook: Optimizing Amazon/Alexa, Walmart/Sparky and other Retail Shopper Agents w/ Andrew Bell 06/24/2026

EP339 - The Non-Agentic Episode 06/18/2026

EP338 - Amazon Q1 2026 Earnings 05/02/2026

EP337 - Agentic Commerce at Citi’s Global Consumer & Retail Conference 03/22/2026

EP336 - Amazon Q4 Earnings 02/06/2026

EP336 - Amazon Q4 Earnings EP336 - Amazon Q4 Earnings Chapters Welcome to the Jason and Scott Show NRF Highlights and Personal Updates Upcoming Conferences and Events Anthropic's Super Bowl Ads Claude Bot and Agentic Technology Amazon Earnings Overview Meta's Advertising Strategies Google's AI Developments Amazon's Earnings Call Insights Retail Growth and Essentials Marketplace Dynamics AWS Performance and Challenges Amazon's Advertising Business Agentic Commerce and Future Predictions Walmart Leadership Changes and Implication Welcome to a new installment of the Jason and Scot Show! In this special episode recorded on February 6th, 2026, hosts Jason Goldberg and Scot Wingo reconnect for an enlightening discussion following their experiences at the NRF and share key industry insights. This episode is packed with updates on Amazon's recent earnings call, the advertising landscape, and the emerging role of agentic commerce in the retail world. Join Jason and Scot as they kick off the episode by reflecting on their time at NRF, where Jason delivered an impactful keynote that had listeners buzzing. In a light-hearted banter, they dive into personal stories, including the often-asked question about Jason's son’s sunburn during their recent Hawaiian vacation. From there, the conversation takes a deep dive into the evolving nature of retail, where both hosts express their excitement over how businesses are embracing the latest innovations in technology and AI. The duo then brings their focus to Amazon's latest earnings report, which revealed a robust growth in retail despite an ominous forecast for capital expenditures. While they discuss the implications of Amazon's projected $200 billion in investments—including expansion into AI infrastructure, fulfillment centers, and essential goods—Jason and Scot analyze whether Wall Street's reaction of an 8% drop was justifiable considering Amazon’s overall performance in retail and advertising. Listeners will gain valuable insights on how Amazon's grocery strategies and its dominance in everyday essentials have created a competitive landscape that mirrors historic retail expansions, like Walmart's grocery initiative. The hosts also emphasize the relevance of the Amazon Marketplace, where third-party sellers are taking up 62% of total units sold, highlighting the synergistic effect between advertising and retail performance. The podcast also delves into the broader context of the e-commerce space, touching on AWS growth dynamics, the challenges posed by capacity constraints, and how they contribute to the narratives surrounding AI integration. With mentions of Anthropic's recent ad campaigns and competitor movements, listeners will appreciate the comprehensive look at the competitive dynamics shaping the industry. Throughout the episode, Jason and Scot maintain an engaging dialogue on the potential of agentic commerce, discussing the opportunities for businesses to adapt and innovate in a rapidly changing environment. Their analysis of the demand for AI-driven tools and the importance of maintaining consumer experiences culminates in a call to reflect on the value of assortment and the implications of shifting consumer behaviors. In conclusion, Episode 336 serves as both a detailed recap of Amazon’s recent performance and a broader commentary on the evolution within the e-commerce sector. With thought-provoking insights and a playful rapport, Jason and Scot ensure that listeners walk away with both the latest news and a deeper understanding of where the retail industry is headed. Episode 336 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded on Friday, February 6th, 2026 Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/40022430

EP335 - Kevin Ertell The Strategy Trap 02/03/2026

EP335 - Kevin Ertell The Strategy Trap EP335 - Kevin Ertell The Strategy Trap In this electrifying episode of the Jason & Scot Show, recorded on Friday, October 10th, 2025, hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg and Scot\t Wingo welcome a very special guest and longtime friend, Kevin Ertell. With over 30 years of combined history, the duo dives into Kevin's impressive career trajectory, his extensive experiences in retail and strategy execution, and the valuable insights behind his newly released book, "The Strategy Trap: Why Companies Fail at Execution and How to Get It Right." Kevin's impressive background spans from starting at Tower Records to holding senior positions at iconic companies like Borders, Nike, and Sur La Table. He discusses his evolution in the retail space, the intricacies of establishing the first TowerRecords.com site, and his current role advising various businesses, including helping the Minnesota Timberwolves with their ticketing operations. As he unveils his book, listeners learn about the core theme: effective execution is the linchpin of successful strategy. Kevin breaks down the key concepts of his book, structured around the "six C's" that are critical for avoiding common pitfalls in strategic execution—co-creation, clarity, capacity, communication, coordination, and coaching. He emphasizes the importance of bringing teams together in the co-creation phase to ensure buy-in and alignment on the strategy, a central pillar in fostering commitment across the organization. The conversation touches on the significance of clarity in communication and the necessity of creating a space for people to provide feedback and understand their roles. Throughout the episode, Scot and Jason explore Kevin's practical strategies and actionable advice for leaders looking to strengthen their execution capabilities. Kevin offers insights on leveraging constraints creatively, encouraging listeners to view limitations as opportunities for innovation, much like how companies like Costco manage to maintain low prices while driving efficiency. As the discussion unfolds, the trio delves into the nuanced nature of workplace culture, highlighting the benefits of psychological safety, the impact of social incentives, and the importance of regular communication channels to keep everyone aligned within the execution framework. Moreover, they touch on fascinating concepts such as pre-mortems, a proactive method of anticipating potential failures before launching a project, differentiating it from the traditional post-mortem analysis. This mindset shift encourages teams to address concerns upfront, minimizing the likelihood of catastrophic missteps in execution. As the episode wraps up, Kevin shares his hopes for the book's impact, inviting listeners to access "The Strategy Trap" at their local bookstores or online. He emphasizes the vital interplay between strategy and execution, urging leaders to recognize that a well-crafted strategy is only as strong as its execution plan. Join us for this enlightening discussion filled with practical lessons, captivating anecdotes, and a wealth of insights from an industry veteran. Tune in, and let’s embrace better execution practices for a thriving business landscape! Episode 335 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded on Friday, October 10th, 2025 Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/39976310

Jason Goldberg's Full Closing NRF 26 Keynote: "Commerce Disrupted: Rise of the AI Native Consumer" 01/15/2026

EP333 - Jason Del Rey The Aisle 11/22/2025

EP333 - Jason Del Rey The Aisle EP333 - Jason Del Rey The Aisle Chapters Welcome to the Json and Scott Show The Amazon Book Debate Inside Jason's Media Journey Jason's New Venture Launching The Aisle The Name Game Blocking Bots on The Aisle Sneak Peek of Upcoming Interviews Is It a Bubble? Exploring Conversational Commerce Upcoming Event Insights How to Subscribe to The Aisle Closing Thoughts and Thanks Predictions for AI Integration Closing Thoughts on Industry Standards Welcome back to the Jason and Scot Show, where we celebrate episode 333 with a truly special guest. Recorded on Thursday, November 19th, this episode features , a prominent e-commerce journalist and the author of the acclaimed book, *Winner Sells All: Amazon, Walmart, and the Battle for Our Wallets*. Jason is launching a new paid newsleter about AI era of commerce "." With a staggering combined history of over 30 years between Jason Goldberg, Scot Wingo, and Del Rey, this conversation dives deep into the evolving world of commerce and the exciting new venture that Del Rey is embarking upon. Kicking off the episode, Jason G and Scot share their long history with Del Rey, discussing his illustrious career covering e-commerce for major publications like Inc. Magazine, Ad Age, and Fortune. They reminisce about Del Rey's past appearances on their show (episodes 67 and 183) and set the stage for his latest project, an independent media company called "The Aisle." Del Rey recounts his trajectory into the e-commerce world, starting from covering digital media companies at Ad Age to eventually becoming an Amazon expert while working under media icons Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher at All Things D. Del Rey reflects on his experiences as a journalist, highlighting his strong relationships with leading figures in the retail space, including interviews with Jeff Bezos, Doug McMillan, and Mark Lurie. He discusses the events he hosted—particularly the Code Commerce series—where he connected influential retail CEOs and tech leaders. As the conversation progresses, Jason G and Scot delve into Del Rey's motives for launching The Aisle, underscoring both personal and professional motivations. Del Rey candidly shares his views on mortality and the urgency to pursue one's passions, a perspective deepened by the early loss of family members and friends. Transitioning into the specifics of his new venture, Del Rey reveals that The Aisle will cover the future of commerce through the lens of AI and technology. He outlines his plans for a paid subscription newsletter focusing on everything from product discovery and conversational commerce trends to disruptive changes in online advertising. With features like intimate dinner events designed to foster candid dialogue among industry leaders, Del Rey aims to create a community that engages deeply with the evolving landscape of commerce. Listeners also learn about The Aisle's structure, including tiers of membership which offer a variety of benefits, from exclusive newsletters to off-the-record consultations with Del Rey himself. As the discussion unfolds, Del Rey emphasizes his experience-based approach to journalism, believing that deeper connections with his audience will allow for richer reporting and analysis. In a light-hearted exchange, the hosts discuss the nuances of conversational commerce and the evolving nature of how consumers interact with brands. Del Rey shares insights from his discussions with industry leaders, exploring the distinctions between textual and voice interactions in commerce. The guests speculate on the future of these trends, engaging in a spirited conversation about the balance between hype and genuine innovation in the AI commerce landscape. Before closing the episode, Del Rey enthusiastically introduces listeners to his first interview for The Aisle, featuring John Collison, co-founder of Stripe, discussing the future of payments and commerce. The episode wraps up with Jason G and Scot reflecting on Del Rey’s journey and the exciting future that lies ahead for him and The Aisle, inviting their listeners to engage with the new publication that promises to deliver valuable insights into the world of commerce. As always, if you enjoy the show, consider subscribing and leaving a five-star review on iTunes. Join us next time for more engaging discussions about the future of commerce and technology! Episode 333 of the Jason and Scot Show was recorded on Thursday, November 19th. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/39131885

EP332 - Kelly Goetsch Order Network eXchange (onX) Standard 11/18/2025

EP332 - Kelly Goetsch Order Network eXchange (onX) Standard EP327 - Kelly Goetsch Order Network eXchange (onX) Standard In this episode of the Jason & Scot Show, recorded on Thursday, November 6th, hosts Jason Goldberg and Scot Wingo welcome back Kelly Goetsch, now the President of Pipe17. They dive deep into the evolving landscape of e-commerce, order management, and the impact of AI on consumer experiences, taking us on a journey through the dynamic developments of the industry. The conversation kicks off with a nostalgic nod to a previous episode, highlighting the rapid shifts in technology and market dynamics since Kelly last joined the show during the height of the microservices boom in July 2021. The discussion emphasizes the transformation of order management systems (OMS) and how current customer expectations have been reshaped by giants like Amazon, pushing brands to adapt to new fulfillment models. Kelly explains how Pipe17 positions itself uniquely in the OMS space, competing not just with traditional systems but also embracing a network-based approach, citing their aim to redefine order operations for the modern era. Throughout the episode, listeners learn about the innovative concept of the and the Commerce Operations Foundation, which aims to standardize communications between selling channels and fulfillment systems. Kelly describes the vision of a seamless, integrated environment where data flows between systems in real-time, vastly improving responsiveness to customer orders and effectively managing inventory across various platforms. The team delves into the significance of the Model Context Protocol (mCP), which allows AI to interface more effectively with various applications in real-time, exemplifying the transformative potential of AI within commerce settings. The conversation takes an intriguing turn as the hosts discuss the current state of e-commerce, focusing on how emerging technologies and shifts in consumer behavior are influencing future sales trends. Kelly expresses a bold prediction that more than 50% of e-commerce transactions will be influenced by AI in the near future. The dialogue also spans the evolution of payment solutions, summarizing the landscape of competing systems and the potential for disruption. Jason and Scot further probe the notion of the web's declining dominance compared to new AI-driven shopping experiences. Kelly shares insights about the changing nature of discovery channels and how AI can reinvent customer interactions in meaningful ways, potentially replacing traditional web browsing models. Amidst these discussions, Kelly highlights the importance of fostering collaboration within the industry, illustrating how cooperation can lead to overall growth and improved customer experience. As the episode wraps up, the conversation touches on the necessity for companies to become agile, moving away from prolonged evaluation processes towards a model that values continuous improvement. The discussion reinforces the idea that standards may provide the needed flexibility for businesses to adapt more readily to accelerating changes in technology. Tune in for this captivating episode, filled with rich insights into the future of e-commerce, AI's pivotal role in shaping customer experiences, and the transformative efforts underway at Pipe17! If you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving a review on your preferred podcast platform, and don’t forget to subscribe for more engaging discussions and industry insights! Episode 332 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded on Thursday, November 6th, 2023. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/39079965

EP331 - E.L.F. Beauty CDO, Ekta Chopra 10/15/2025

EP331 - E.L.F. Beauty CDO, Ekta Chopra EP331 - E.L.F. Beauty CDO, Ekta Chopra Welcome to the Jason and Scott Show Live from Las Vegas Guest Introduction: Ekta Chopra The Best Panel Ever Ekta's Journey to Elf Beauty Understanding Elf Beauty From Cosmetics to Multi-Channel AI in Retail: The Future Maintaining Company Culture The Impact of TikTok Shop Attribution in a Multi-Channel World Implementing AI at Elf The Future of AI and Retail Balancing AI with Humanity The Importance of Loyalty Programs Conclusion and Farewell Welcome to a special live edition of the Jason & Scot Show! In this episode, recorded live from Groceryshop in sunny Las Vegas on September 30, 2025, hosts Jason Goldberg and Scott Wingo celebrate the return of in-person podcasting after three years, reminiscing about their origins in the live podcasting scene and the upcoming 10-year anniversary of the show. Together, they welcome special guest Ekta Chopra, the Chief Digital and Innovation Officer of Elf Beauty, who shares insights into the fast-changing landscape of beauty and eCommerce. Ekta discusses her journey to Elf Beauty, a brand that has consistently emerged as a bold disruptor in the cosmetics industry. She explains how Elf was innovative from the start, selling $1 cosmetics online at a time when digital platforms were still developing. She proudly notes how the brand has evolved from its original direct-to-consumer model to a successful omnichannel powerhouse with a portfolio that now includes elf Cosmetics, elf Skin, and collaborations with other beauty brands. The discussion naturally transitions into the role of AI in eCommerce and how Elf is leveraging AI tools to revolutionize customer engagement and product development. Ekta emphasizes the importance of being where their community is by adopting new platforms such as TikTok, where Elf has successfully engaged consumers through authentic connections with content creators. The episode also dives into how the brand is navigating the evolving landscape shaped by AI, including enhancing search capabilities and content strategy to stay relevant and connected with younger consumers. As the conversation progresses, the hosts discuss the importance of data and customer-centric strategies in the age of AI. Ekta shares the significance of the Elf loyalty program in creating a seamless customer experience and maintaining relationships with consumers. The commitment to "human-in-the-loop" processes ensures effective integration of AI technologies while addressing ethical concerns. Listeners are encouraged to check out Ekta’s informative Substack, "AI Chef," for insights into the intersection of AI and commerce, where she shares her ongoing learning journey and best practices for integrating AI into business operations. This exciting episode wraps up with a nod to the future of commerce, the balance between technology and humanity, and the continuing evolution all brands must undergo as they adapt to the changing marketplace. Join us for this engaging conversation filled with wit, humor, and a valuable glimpse into the future of beauty and eCommerce. **Episode 330 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded live from Groceryshop on September 30th, 2025.** Don’t forget to subscribe, leave a review on iTunes, and follow us on social media for more exciting news and updates! Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/38588040

EP330 - GroceryShop and ChatGPT Instant Checkout 10/06/2025

EP330 - GroceryShop and ChatGPT Instant Checkout EP330 - GroceryShop and ChatGPT Instant Checkout Welcome to the Json and Scott Show Catching Up After Two Months Insights from NRF Europe Retail Club Experience Key Takeaways from Grocery Shop Sampling Experiences at Grocery Shop AI Trends in Retail Closing Thoughts and Next Steps Join Jason and Scot as they celebrate recording their first live episode in three years for the Jason & Scot Show! Recorded on Tuesday, September 30th, 2025, this episode captures the excitement of being back together in person and highlights their dynamic discussions on the current state of retail and upcoming trends. From reminiscing about their podcasting journey since its launch in November 2015, Jason and Scot dive into the latest happenings in the retail space, especially from the two shows they recently attended: NRF Europe and Retail Club. Jason shares insights from his time at NRF Europe in Paris, where he participated in engaging discussions about retail innovations and the necessity of multi-lingual capabilities in a diverse market. With impressive attendance and notable exhibitors, he reflects on the event's success and the importance of adapting to multiple regional markets within Europe. Meanwhile, Scot delves into the Retail Club event held at Huntington Beach, California, highlighting its unique vibes with a beachside setup and a focus on AI-driven retail discussions. The event offered a refreshing departure from traditional conferences, focusing on interactive workshops and relationships rather than panels. Together, they explore the implications of AI in retail, including its transformative power over various operational aspects, and the importance of adapting to the evolving marketplace landscape. Jason and Scot also engage in a lively discussion about AI's role in shaping customer experiences, their predictions for the future, and how retailers can effectively harness these technologies while remaining competitive. They examine innovations such as electronic shelf labels, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in stores. Scot can't help but reference his ongoing obsession with the concept of “Agentic Native Vertical Brands,” hinting at the evolving terminology in the retail sphere. In the latter part of the episode, they discuss their experiences at GroceryShop, where significant trends are emerging in grocery retail—especially regarding macroeconomic conditions, emerging AI technologies, and the vital role of retail media networks. The conversations shed light on how AI can enhance not only the customer experience but also the operational efficiencies of retailers. The broad-impact implications of GLP-1 medications on consumer habits are discussed as well, marking a notable trend in grocery shopping behaviors. Towards the end of the episode, Jason raises his anticipation for the upcoming trends in commerce, making it clear that the integration of AI into the shopping experience will continue to redefine how retailers operate. From discussions around inventory management, product recommendations, and dynamic pricing to the emergence of social commerce, this episode encapsulates the cutting-edge of the retail landscape. Tune in for this inspiring and enriching episode filled with insights and excitement around retail innovation! If you haven't already, subscribe to the Jason & Scot Show for more engaging discussions and updates on the future of retail. This episode was recorded on September 30th, 2025, at the GroceryShop conference, a fantastic gathering of thought leaders and innovators in the retail space, where Jason and Scot share their unique perspectives and observations on the fast-evolving landscape of retail. **Episode 330 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded on Tuesday, October 30th, 2025.** Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy.AI and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/38475165

EP329 - Amazon Q2 2025 Results 08/01/2025

EP329 - Amazon Q2 2025 Results EP329 - Amazon Q2 2025 Results Welcome to the Jason and Scott Show Amazon's Mixed Earnings Report The Impact of AWS on Retail AWS Performance and AI Concerns Amazon's Advertising Strategy Amazon's Relationship with Google The Future of AI Investments User Experience and Advertising Economic Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior Welcome back to the Jason & Scot Show! In episode 329, recorded on August 1st, 2025, we dive into the highly anticipated Amazon Q2 earnings report alongside other critical tech giants' earnings results. Your hosts, Jason Goldberg (the retail geek) and Scott Wingo, bring their expert insights and analysis of a rollercoaster earnings season that saw mixed results across the board. Kicking off the episode, Scot sets the stage with a review of Google’s recent earnings results, which painted a mixed picture. While search revenue indicated a solid 12% growth, concerns about the impact of AI on search operations raised eyebrows. Google Cloud did not exhibit the explosive growth anticipated, leading investors to remain cautious. Following this, we turn our focus to the simultaneous announcements from Microsoft and Meta. Each company churned impressive earnings and strategic maneuvers, surpassing expectations and highlighting strong growth driven largely by their AI advancements. Transitioning to Amazon, the top story emerges: the company reported Q2 earnings that, unfortunately, mirrored Google's mixed performance rather than the triumphs seen with Microsoft and Meta. Despite a revenue growth of 12% and operating income surpassing expectations, investors reacted negatively to AWS's performance, which failed to keep pace with its competitors. Jason and Scott dissect the factors leading to Amazon's stock drop post-earnings call and the implications for its sprawling empire. Amazon’s retail performance, particularly in North American and international markets, sparks a lively discussion. Notably, the North American retail business beat expectations by 2%, and international retail excelled by 7%. The hosts clarify that while the overall performance was commendable, it left much to be desired when juxtaposed against AWS's stunted growth and other tech players' successes. Delving deeper, Jason emphasizes the company’s continued enhancements to its supply chain, signalling improvements that strengthen their retail operations, crucial for maintaining growth amidst increasing competition. He also highlights an interesting trend: for the first time, first-party sales outpaced third-party sales, reflecting a noteworthy shift in Amazon’s marketplace dynamics as consumer spending leans towards everyday essentials. As the discussion progresses, Scott raises a critical point about the evolving landscape of online advertising and the pivotal role it plays in driving Amazon’s growth. Despite a slight deceleration in year-over-year growth for the ads business, it remains a bright spot for Amazon, contrasting starkly with AWS’s performance and hinting at the challenges faced in balancing user experience against monetization strategies. The conversation pivots towards AWS, where the hosts dissect the figures that fell below investor expectations—the margins declining for the first time since the previous year, raising questions about structural issues. The ambiguity surrounding Amazon's ability to capture AI growth is a focal point, with analysts expressing concerns about lagging behind competitors. Nearing the end of the episode, a fascinating turn occurs when Scott sheds light on Amazon's recent decision to withdraw its shopping ads from Google. This pivotal move sends ripples across both platforms, provoking various theories about strategic shifts and implications for competitors. The duo shares intriguing insights into how this action marks a significant stake in the ground regarding data ownership and market positioning. As the episode wraps up, Jason and Scott reflect on the broader landscape of AI, retail, and shifting consumer behaviors, suggesting that while Amazon remains a dominant player, its approach and evolution will be crucial in navigating future market dynamics. Be sure to listen in for their final takeaways from the earnings calls and nuanced observations regarding the tech landscape. If you enjoyed this episode, please give us a five-star review on iTunes, and stay tuned for next week’s insights! **Episode 328 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded on Thursday, July 23rd, 2025.** Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/37641275

Scoop: Brittain Ladd on Amazon's Local Vending Machine and Autonomous Robotic Rivians for Hyper-efficient grocery delivery 07/29/2025

EP328 - News, Answer Engine Week 07/28/2025

EP328 - News, Answer Engine Week EP328 - Navigating E-commerce News and Innovations in AI Answer Engines for Commerce 0:36 Welcome to the Jason and Scot Show 4:53 Consumer Trends in Retail 5:03 Upcoming Retail Events 8:42 Insights on E-commerce Growth 10:35 Earnings Season Insights 44:13 Amazon Prime Day Analysis 51:30 New Developments with Alexa 56:00 Predictions for the Holiday Season In this episode of the Jason and Scot Show, recorded on Thursday, July 23rd, Jason and Scot delve into the latest shifts within the e-commerce landscape, emerging consumer trends, and the role of Artificial Intelligence in retail transformation. Jason has been on the road, engaging with industry professionals and moderating discussions around pressing retail topics such as social commerce and consumer behavior, particularly the growing usage of answer engines amid an evolving shopping cycle involving giants like Amazon and Google. Scot kicks off the episode by teasing insights from Jason’s recent travels and virtual think tank participation, where they investigated consumer trends such as the surge of ethical purchases and the dynamics of social commerce influenced by platforms like TikTok. The duo explores the implications of consumers increasingly relying on answer engines throughout their shopping journeys, particularly in the wake of mounting competition from dedicated AI solutions. Listeners are treated to an analysis of recent U.S. retail data, highlighting core retail sales growth—a modest 3.8% year-to-date—contrasting the slower pace of e-commerce growth, now at only 6.8%. The conversation turns to the dichotomy between successful retail giants like Amazon and Walmart, against a backdrop of underperforming categories like electronics and home improvement, veering into the impact of macroeconomic factors on consumer spending behavior. The episode also takes a closer look at notable earnings releases, particularly how tech giants like Google are grappling with a shift towards answer engines like ChatGPT, disrupting traditional search methodologies. Scot shares insights on Google's recent performance metrics that seem to mask a creeping decline in organic search volume, while Jason echoes concerns about the current retail media landscape and the challenges it poses to user experience on platforms like Amazon. With light humor and camaraderie peppering deeper analysis, Jason and Scot examine the implications of Walmart's recent hires in AI technology and strategy, reflecting on how retailers are pivoting to become more like answer engines amidst intensifying competition. As they look ahead towards the upcoming holiday season, expectations are tempered by economic uncertainties and supply chain disruptions, hinting at an uneven landscape where larger players may gain traction at the expense of smaller retailers. The pair wraps up the episode by expressing optimism for the future of AI in simplifying shopping experiences while also critiquing the current voice shopping functionality on devices like Amazon's Alexa+. Join them as they illuminate the complexities shaping today's e-commerce environment while addressing the pressing questions retailers must answer to thrive in an increasingly competitive landscape. Don't miss out on their engaging discussions; be sure to subscribe for the latest insights into retail trends and innovations! This episode is packed with valuable insights and anecdotes, perfect for retail enthusiasts and industry professionals looking to stay ahead of the curve. Enjoy the show and don’t forget to leave a review! **Episode 328 of the Jason & Scot Show was recorded on Thursday, July 23rd, 2025.** Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/37585590

EP327 - Agentic Commerce 06/14/2025

EP327 - Agentic Commerce EP327 - Agentic Commerce Happy Fathers Day! In this exciting episode of the Jason & Scot Show, recorded on Friday, June 6th, 2025, hosts Jason Goldberg and Scot Wingo dive into the latest happenings and insights in the world of strategic e-commerce, AI technologies, and retail innovations. This episode picks up where Episode 326 left off, continuing the engaging conversation sparked by their recent discussions around AI and its implications for the retail sector. Kicking off, the duo discusses the monumental news that Fiji Simo, the former CEO of Instacart, has been tasked with leading OpenAI's consumer products division. Jason emphasizes the significant shift this represents for both Fiji’s career and the trajectory of OpenAI, pointing out her unique blend of extensive e-commerce experience and her focus on the future of AI. Both hosts speculate on how her leadership role at OpenAI could steer the integration of AI into commerce, particularly in areas like agentic shopping and advanced AI-driven search capabilities. Shifting gears, Jason and Scot review an intriguing overproduced conversation between OpenAI’s Sam Altman and design visionary Jony Ive about a mysterious new device rumored to empower user access to AI. Scot and Jason share their thoughts on the potential implications of such a device, questioning whether it might be a powerful, screenless AI assistant or simply another Alexa-type solution. The conversation then transitions into a critical discussion about the evolving landscape of search and commerce. Jason unveils his recently published point of view report on AI disruption in commerce search. He argues that while AI-driven search technologies are still in their infancy, they hold the potential to drastically redefine user experiences and efficiency in online shopping, making it imperative for brands to adapt their marketing strategies accordingly. Scot highlights recent statistics from eMarketer that predict exponential growth in AI-related ad spending, setting the stage for a potential paradigm shift in online marketing and advertising dynamics. They explore whether innovative AI search engines like ChatGPT and Perplexity may challenge traditional platforms like Google and reshape businesses' approach to SEO and content strategy. Both hosts don’t shy away from discussing broader social implications, such as the significant role of social media in commerce, especially platforms like TikTok. They reflect on how social media is transforming the way consumers discover and purchase products, paralleling it with the changes brought by AI technologies. In a particularly engaging segment, Jason and Scot examine the recent foray into humanoid robots by Amazon, comparing it to other technological innovations like drones. While amused by the prospect of robots delivering packages, they share a similar concern regarding the practicality and future significance of such technologies. McDonald experts remain skeptical about whether humanoid robots will fundamentally change e-commerce, preferring to focus on the profound changes they believe AI will bring. As they wrap up this marathon double heaer episode, Jason and Scot discuss how perceptions of shopping are evolving, particularly distinguishing between needs fulfillment and the discovery process, and how AI agents could redefine these experiences in a retail context. Listeners are encouraged to subscribe, share their thoughts and reviews, and engage with the show on social media platforms and through Scot's new substack, Retailgentic.ai. Tune in to Episode 327 of the Jason & Scot Show for an insightful exploration of the present and future of AI in retail, recorded amid their back-to-back sessions fueled by the wealth of information gathered during Jason’s global journey in e-commerce. Don't forget to like our page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 327 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Friday, June 6th. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of ReFiBuy.ai and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/37008280

EP326 - Are Retail Media Networks Mid? 06/13/2025

Retailgentic crossover: Sucharita Kodali - VP and Principal Analyst, Forrester Research 06/06/2025

Retailgentic: Michelle Grant - Director, Strategy and Insights, Retail and Consumer Goods 06/04/2025

Introducing: Retailgentic - A New Pod Focusing on GenAI Shopping Agents and the impact on retail: Retailgentic 05/29/2025

EP325 - Amazon Q1 2025 results and AI Commerce 05/06/2025

EP324 - Amazon Q4 Earnings 02/12/2025

EP324 - Amazon Q4 Earnings EP324 - Amazon Q4 Earnings In this episode we do a deep dive into Amazon Q4 and Full Year 2024 results. Amazon had an overall strong quarter with record profits from their retail business unit. Amazon GMV grew 11% in 2024 vs. 2023, almost three times as fast as the retail industyr as a whole. Amazon's North American GMV also nearly matched Walmart's in 2024 (Walmart reports it's Q4 results next week). We also cover the impacts and implicates of the de minimus ban in the US (which was lifted after only 4 days). We wrap up by comparing Amazon's 2024 growth to the rest of the retail industry. Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Temu, Shien, and Tik Tok Shops representing 62% of all retail growth in 2024 (this is a revision from the 70% estimate we shared in the podcast). Don't forget to like our page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 324 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Monday, February 10th, 2025. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason [0:23]Welcome to the Jason and Scott Show. This is episode 324 being recorded on Monday, February 10th. I'm your host, Jason Retail Geek Goldberg, and as usual, I'm here with your co-host, Scott Wingo. Scot [0:36]Hey, Jason, and welcome back, Jason and Scott Show listeners. Jason, how was your Super Bowl? Jason [0:43]My Los Angeles Chargers did not do well in the Super Bowl this year. Or my adopted Detroit Lions. Scot [0:50]Well, as a chief digital payment retail advertising officer for a big ad firm, I'm sure you were there for the ads. What any ads catch your attention? Jason [1:02]Were there ads in the Super Bowl? Scot [1:04]Yeah. Yeah. It's supposedly one of the more expensive places to buy an ad. Jason [1:08]Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is kind of hackneyed, but it's near $8 million for each 30 second spot now. And what people miss is that most of these ads cost more than twice that. That both the production of the ad is quite expensive. And then there's now this whole, it used to be that you just surprised everyone by running an ad. And what everyone has learned is you get a lot more mileage by hyping the bejesus out of your ad for weeks before the Super Bowl. And so now the Super Bowl is like step four in a 10-step process and it's all super expensive. So the money is higher than ever. I would not say it was a standout year for e-commerce. Like the last two years, like two years ago, we had this surprise new, not only Super Bowl advertiser, but surprise new retailer in Timu. Jason [2:02]And, you know, then last year they were surprised in that they bought so many ads. So that was remarkable. Over the years, we've had some really interesting Amazon ads. And then occasionally we have some weird venture funded, like digitally native direct to consumer companies try to make a splash in the Super Bowl. So I'm not sure I would characterize anything that this year as super standing out from an e-commerce standpoint. Instacart was like the most significant new e-commerce player to do a Super Bowl ad. I thought they did a good ad that was well received with the famous brands. And then, you know, there's some weird stuff. Most of these ads are just to increase brand awareness. And in fact, the way they measure them is things like unaided brand recall, which are, these are metrics that I personally hate. But one of the ads for Fetch, which is arguably an e-commerce company, it's a, you know what Fetch is, Scott? It's a, it's like a purchase affinity program. Jason [3:08]So... Brands buy promotions. They're from Fetch. Customers subscribe to Fetch, and when they take advantage of the discount on General Mills goods, they earn Fetch points, which they can then redeem for prizes. So it's, it's a multi-brand customer affinity, digital native customer affinity program. And they did an ad in the last two minutes of the Superbowl that was essentially open our app right now. And in the next five minutes, we're giving 120 people, $10,000. Scot [3:44]Well, and so the. Jason [3:46]The, yeah, you had to watch to the bitter end and the game was no longer interesting at that point. But the interesting thing about that is that this is one of a handful of attempts over the years to do real activation in a Super Bowl ad versus just generate awareness. So I don't think anyone thought it was super well done or super effective, but I admire the effort to try to make some of these ads work harder. Like you'll remember past years, there were interesting, like there was a one year where the ad was just a QR code that stood on the screen for 30 seconds. Scot [4:23]Yeah. Yeah. And bounced around. It did the bouncy thing. Jason [4:25]Yeah. To make it harder to scan, which is, yeah. Scot [4:31]Cool. I liked the Instacart. That one kind of caught my attention. Jason [4:35]Yeah, I was just sad that there was no Timu jingle to get earwormed into my head this year. Scot [4:42]Yeah, I was confused by the water bottle thing. I had never seen that. Jason [4:46]Yeah, that got kind of panned. That didn't get circle or whatever it's called. Yeah. Scot [4:53]Yeah. Jason [4:54]Yeah. So it didn't get great reviews as an ad, but it was super confusing. People didn't understand what they were even trying to do. Scot [5:00]Yeah, I thought it was like a delivery network. And then I was thinking, oh, we'll have to mention this. And I was like, wait a minute. They're only delivering water bottles. I must have misunderstood the whole thing. Jason [5:08]Yeah. It's a filtering, it's a filtering water bottle. Scot [5:11]Yeah. I guess I didn't understand why they were distributing a hundred. Jason [5:14]I guess they gave away like a million starter kit sample packs, but it was not clear to anyone watching the ad that that's what they were talking about or doing. They, they tried to get too much in a short ad, but I think the, the plot in theory was that the the celebrity who's the the guy from mean girls and or pitch perfect yeah um that he who apparently is a real life fan of the product and got this contract as a result of his like, social shares about the product that he inadvertently ordered a huge surplus of the of these these products and then had to give them all away. Scot [5:54]Well we'll have to have you do a live stream next year to explain the commercials to me. Jason [5:58]Yeah i think we should get someone that understands. Scot [6:05]I got none of that whatever you guys got so. Jason [6:07]Yeah yeah that's just all the water cooler conversation i get in my company today the coolest ad in our world i should have said is starbucks that did not advertise at the super bowl but they've created a new holiday which is called i think I think it's called like super Monday and so it's, everybody's like tired and low energy on the Monday after the super bowl. So Starbucks gave all, all rewards members a free coffee today. Scot [6:40]Yeah, that was smart. Jason [6:41]Yeah. Scot [6:42]The, it doesn't work for the kind of drinks we have though sadly. Jason [6:45]Not trying to use a little. Basic brewed iced coffee does count. So I didn't, I didn't go, but I could have gotten a nice coffee. Scot [6:52]Yeah. Okay. I liked, I thought it was interesting that the Dunk Kings were, or Dunkin' Donuts was basically making fun of Starbucks. They were kind of dissing them. Jason [7:03]Yeah. Yeah. I didn't like that at all. No. And that was kind of a sequel, right? Like that was a sequel from last year's ad. Although I think Matt Damon got bumped for Ben Affleck's brother. So that, I will say the, the. The david beckham ad was pretty cute. Scot [7:20]Yeah that was funny yeah. Jason [7:21]The other david yeah. Scot [7:23]And he kicked the ball. Jason [7:25]Yeah oh it's the thing i do yeah and so this is for people that didn't watch matt damon portrayed david beckham's long lost brother that his parents never told him he had and, and the other david grew up in america versus david beckham growing up in in england obviously But at the end of the ad, David Beckham explains that he's a pretty famous soccer player. And Matt Damon goes, you mean like Matt Damon famous? And David Beckham goes, more like Ben Affleck famous. And Matt Damon goes, oh, that's too bad. Scot [8:00]Ouch. Jason [8:01]Yeah. Scot [8:03]Cool. Well, today we are going to talk about Amazon's fourth quarter. So the, before we go into there, the setup was you, did the Department of Commerce ever come out with their data for, for the holiday or we're still waiting on it? Jason [8:21]No, they did. The December data is out. And so it ended up being a good holiday. November sales were really soft by historical standards, but then December sales were really strong. The partly, I think that's partly because the, October. Literally, the holiday season started in October this year. For the first time ever, they really got consumers to buy more stuff in October. And so then there was kind of a lull in November and sales picked back up in December. Also, just weird vagarities of the calendar. Cyber Monday was in December this year, which it's normally in November. So that had some impact. But cumulatively, between November and December, sales were up 4% year over year, which NRF had forecasted that they would be up two and a half to three and a half percent. So being up four percent is pretty solid. Scot [9:13]Yeah. Good. Cool. So then coming into, oh, the other thing I wanted to hit before we get into the deep dive of Amazon earnings is the end of the de minimis thing that you've been talking about. Jason [9:26]Yeah. See, we can do a super short version of this. When you import stuff into the United States, you have to pay duties and taxes on those things and you have to meet import requirements. So you can't import products that are made with, you know, dangerous chemicals or made by a child political prisoners or things like that. But we don't have enough inspectors to make sure that everything comes into the United States meets all those criterias. So for a long time, we've had this exception on the import thing, which is if it's a very small package of low value, it does not need to be inspected and you do not need to pay customs. So if you make a container full of t-shirts and send them to the United States to sell, you pay duties on that container. But if you put a single t-shirt in an envelope and ship it to a single customer, it's under the de minimis threshold and nobody has to pay customs on it. And it was a clause that was just to save on labor to process all this paperwork. No one wanted to collect $0.30 of duties and have to spend $5 processing that $0.30 payment. But over time, that threshold crept up and up. And under the Obama administration, it got raised to $600. Jason [10:42]And so there's companies like Shein and Timu shipped the vast majority of their packages into the U.S. When they first started via that mechanism. So they, in essence, didn't pay any duties or taxes. And, you know, a lot of people felt that's unfair, that Gap is paying a lot of duties because they're importing containers, a lot of stuff, and Timu is shipping individual packages to consumers and not paying duties. And so Biden actually... Jason [11:11]Issued an executive order to cancel De Minimis from China, but he wrote it in a way that it would be like carefully considered and slowly implemented. So it hadn't been implemented by the time he left. And then Trump issued an executive order on like a Thursday saying it's, it's closed on Tuesday over the weekend. And so everyone's like, oh man, Timu and Sheehan are going to be out of business. This is going to be great for Western brands and blah, blah, blah. and it's still all playing out. Who knows what really will happen. My own personal opinion is Timu and Sheehan needed De Minimis to get started and they took full advantage of it. They are now so big that they don't need it. And both of those companies have half the goods they sell are already in warehouses in the US. They were already paying customs on it. They mostly decided that the popular items needed to get to Americans faster. So they have one and two day shipping. That's all coming from the U.S. So they're not dependent on de minimis anymore. And so banning de minimis, I think, is an inconvenience to them, but I don't think it's a death blow. Jason [12:19]Also, it doesn't necessarily save you money to use de minimis because while you save money on duties, it costs you a lot more shipping money because you're usually air freighting something instead of ocean freighting it. And that's much more expensive. So arguably, there's a trade-off between the air freight and the ocean freight. And then the secret dirty thing of all of this is every Western brand also figured out this was a thing. And so all the athletic shoes you buy get shipped in a container, not to the United States, but to Mexico, and then de minimis into the United States from Mexico. And so a lot of people assume, oh, this is only going to affect these Chinese brands that we don't particularly like doing well in our market, but it actually is likely to have an equal impact on many big brands. Jason [13:07]Trump also banned a minimus from Mexico and Canada, but then that got reprieved. So at the moment, it doesn't affect those. Nobody knew how to and still doesn't know how to process all of this. So literally the post office stopped accepting packages from China altogether for a day because they didn't know how to do this. Nobody solved the fundamental problem that we don't have enough inspectors to inspect all these packages. So in theory, if we try to inspect them all, there's not going to be any more goods in the United States because it's going to take a year for anything to clear custom. So there's a lot of confusion and uncertainty out there. I just sum it up by saying Amazon took full advantage of not paying sales tax when they got started. And it was a huge advantage and it helped Amazon scale. Jason [13:56]When we definitively started charging sales tax on e-commerce companies, everyone's like, oh, that's going to put Amazon out of business. And of course it didn't, right? Like Amazon had already gotten so big that they were happy to pay taxes and kind of pull the ladder up behind them and not let other people start with the same jumpstart that they got. And now they're happy to play on a level playing field because they know they can win on the level playing field. And I would argue Timu and Shein are kind of in the same boat with regard to De Minimus. So I think it's not going to materially stop them, but it's going to change how everyone does business. And at the moment, it just created a lot of confusion and uncertainty for everyone. Scot [14:40]Yeah. Interesting. Yeah, I saw a screenshot that like most of them, you know, overnight they had switched everything to be from Mexico and native in the U.S. Jason [14:49]Well, that's the other problem. There's a way to whack them. When you write, oh, we're just getting rid of de minimis for three countries, you're just starting a whack-a-mo game. Like, everyone will move everything to Guatemala or Indonesia. And then you'll have to issue new orders. Scot [15:04]Yeah, it does close the door for other competitors to use it as a bootstrap method. So in a weird way, it almost like solidifies Amazon, Timu, and Shein as kind of like the leaders of this. Jason [15:14]Yeah, I think that's it makes it much harder for a new competitor to be born to compete with with these guys that have already used it to get to scale. Scot [15:22]Yeah, cool. So last Thursday was Amazon. Jason [15:25]Oh, Scott, sorry. There's one other thing we have to cover before we get to Amazon. I did an event for a client, a speaking event, and a picture of it went up on the internet. And my friend Scott Wingo has too much free time on his hands and posted a whole LinkedIn article, zoomed in on my sock in this picture, which revealed the logo of the client I was doing a presentation for. And it's gone like Jason and Scott viral. So all of my supervisors at Publisys are super impressed that I got caught wearing a logo. And I have Scott Wingo to thank for that. So thanks, Scott. Scot [16:05]You're welcome. Hey, you wore the socks. It was funny. I was talking. I did another post where I went to a Starbucks one day and the new CEO, I don't know if you know this, but he's asking them if they have time to write little notes on the cups. I went to the Starbucks like two weeks ago and everything was lined up alphabetically. It was like one of those little delivery stations. And it all had like personalized notes. And I just like put it up there as like a really good example of small things are important for customer service and like wearing your client's socks. So little things like that matter. Jason [16:35]Amen. On the one hand, it was super awesome. On the other hand, the unintended consequence of that, Scott, is I now cannot go to any other client presentation without their socks. I just cost you thousands of dollars. Yes, yes. So let me just say, I've spent the last like five days, like scraping the corporate web company stores of a lot of retail and brands. Scot [16:58]Cool. So coming into Amazon's earnings, you know, it's really become all about AI these days. There's a lot going on in AI. First, we had Microsoft with Azure. They largely missed expectations on the growth of their AI piece. And then Google had a similar reaction. And what they're all saying is the demand is outstripping our ability to meet it where we're gpu and energy constrained and and fulfill a data center constrained so then everyone was kind of like oh boy it's going to be bad for amazon and there's a lot of little bit of a fear uncertainty and doubt in the market and then the big disruption happened when deep seek which is the chinese company there's there's been so much ink on this i'd be surprised if people hadn't heard about it they're. Scot [17:42]Their reasoning model, R1, came out and it was basically what they call open source. It's really open models, meaning open weights. You don't actually get the source code. So it's a little bit of a misnomer. I prefer open weights. But what that means is you can just basically download this thing and run it anywhere. And this is interesting because it's as good as the latest models from everyone that's charging quite a bit of money. And you know what what this the direct disruption here is it became very clear that the way this is priced is dollars per million of token million tokens so if you're going to use one of these llm kind of engines from an api perspective to power a feature or something like that it was really it was relatively very expensive in the early days of chat gpt and now it's gone from it's basically turning to zero very quickly so a lot of people were beating up Amazon for not having their own multi-billion dollar investment in an LLM. They are an investor in Anthropic, but they don't have their own LLM. So it's interesting because Jassy's been saying, we're kind of neutral. We just want to host them all and let the customer pick and the customer is going to go where the data is. And we have a lot of data. Scot [18:56]So then that actually ended up, DeepSeek R1 ends up really being a big benefit to companies is Amazon for the reasons I mentioned, but also Apple, because it turns out the way DeepSeq developed this thing, the whole model is pretty efficient... /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/35250125

EP323 - 2025 Predictions and NRF Big Show 2025 Recap 01/27/2025

EP323 - 2025 Predictions and NRF Big Show 2025 Recap The expended edition of this podcast is 80 minutes long. We're sorry, if we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast. 0:00 - 27:30 NRF Big Show Recap 27:30 - 59:00 Recap of 2024 Predictions 59:00 - 80:00 2025 Predictions Watch a complete recap of NRF Big Show 2025 2024 Predictions Recap Jason: Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network YES AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption. YES Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers) YES China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com. No Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks). No Jason Score: 3.0 Scot: Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM No Temu falters as people realize it’s wish 2.0 No RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint) No Instacart who’s stock IPO’d at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40 YES While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead - materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out? Yes Scot Score: 2.0 In a rare upset victory, Jason takes the 2024 predictions crown! But can he keep it? 2025 Predictions Jason: Shein & Temu are NOT impacted by changes to De Minimus (which either don’t happen or are ineffective). They ay be impacted by Tik Top Shops and/or Trade War tarrifs but not by changes to De Minimus. Tik Tok is not permanently banned in US (prediction made before scheduled ban was to take place). Tik Tok Shops is fastest growing $1B+ retailer in 2025. A major auto manufacturer launches a DTC offering in the US in 2025 (other than Tesla). Retail Media Networks undergo consolidation in 2025 as smaller retailers realize they can't go it alone. Live-streaming/VR/Voice Commerce are all materially insignificant in 2025. No financial evidence that consumers care about green or purpose driven brand with their wallets. Bonus: - AI Agents hottest trend in commerce (but I don’t know how to measure it) Scot: Facebook acquires eBay puts them out of their misery finally Temu loses its newness/out of the honeymoon period and people realize it’s a gimmick - down 20% in 25 vs. 24, even more with tariffs AI agents become a double edge sword for retailers (headless/composable) vs. no ux, I predict 10 large retailers block them, but the rest embrace Marketplaces have a new leg of expansion into a variety of places even an LLM - let’s call it 5 new larger retailers Personalization is out, memory is in, but still silo’d - Bonus: AI automates and optimizes the supply chain in ways we humans can’t, or at least analyzes the data in such a way -OR could be quantum computing. Don't forget to like our page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 323 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 23rd, 2025. Transcropt Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Json and Scott show this is episode 323 being recorded on Thursday January 23rd that's a lot of 2 threes I'm your host Jason retail gee Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:37] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners for episode 323 being recorded on 123, Jason you are in the post honeymoon phase of the NRF Big Show 1 of my and I'll have to be honest with listeners kind of not favorite shows because it's in New York during January and I'm allergic to cold weather and I always have a hard time getting there and out because of the snow and then also it's a show that's over weekend so it kind of crushes the whole work life balance thing so hope you had a fun 1 I was not I did not attend this year. Jason: [1:14] Very often it's over a holiday weekend it's like. Scot: [1:17] And yeah so in the holiday weekend as well for for fun yeah. Jason: [1:20] Yeah yeah I think for as long as I can remember we've been going to that show and complaining about it and the the the usual answer is of course due to its 114 year old show we're not changing it because you're whining um, which fair enough, I will point out good news for you Scott global warming it doesn't snow in New York anymore so it hasn't it was cold but like there there used to be an annual blizzard and they literally haven't had any snow in like the last 3 years which is a little spooky, um and I have great news for you if if you thought it was a lot to go to 1 in RF a year guess what we get this year. Scot: [1:57] 2 nrf's. Jason: [1:58] 3 NRF or depending on how you count 4 NS. Scot: [2:02] Whoa are they going to call them Big Show small show Medium show. Jason: [2:05] No so for a while they've had so they have a few other shows so they have the NRF Big Show which is what we're talking about in in New York in January 114 years old 40,000 people at 10 mostly Brazilians, they've had what I'll call the small show which is technically now called NRF Nexus it's had some other names in the past that's in Southern California in the summer and I really like that show I'll be I'll be at that show, I'll I'll be doing a number of gigs there and I encourage people to go there because it's a way better boondoggle we all hang out and eat good food on the beach and, in his way less stressful than than in our Big Show. Scot: [2:41] I can sign up for that yeah that's uh no blizzards sign me up. Jason: [2:45] Trono in Rancho Palo Verdes it's a good it's a good spot it's where Rico started. Scot: [2:48] Oohnice. Jason: [2:50] Um they have like a loss prevention show which is probably not relevant to mow most of our listeners but the big news is they are the Big Show has gone International so last year they had Big Show Asia for the first time in Singapore I was not there but it was by all accounts a big success and so, this year we'll have year 2 of Big Show Singapore, and then they're now expanding to Europe so this September will have NRF Big Show Paris. So Scott if you want to go well you know my my corporate headquarters is there my boss is there so we'll we'll host everyone in his office on the shampoo Jose. Scot: [3:29] I would love that I have a lot to chat with your boss about I feel that you're being shorted on your title and it's been too long we need to expand your title so that's going to be my number 1 you know point on the agenda. Jason: [3:41] Yes it is high on my list to get you in front of our tours to renegotiate my package. Scot: [3:47] Yeah I'm there I will I will Ari Gold this thing and we will get. Jason: [3:50] Yeah I know he our tour listens to every episode so be ready our tour he's coming Scott's coming for you. Scot: [3:55] Yep I got your I got your number first of all I'm going to loosen him up with some wine and cheese French people like that right and some croissants boom. Jason: [4:03] Yeah but I kind of don't think you can loosen a French person up with 1. Scot: [4:07] True it may be a bad strategy. Jason: [4:09] Yeahfun strategy but it just may not work out the way you hope. Scot: [4:14] Well how is the show I saw that you were you know doing some really good instagramable pictures out in front of some signs and looking spelt and you had your cool eyewear rocking did you how did how are all the balls and Galas and the and you did a bunch of content give us a give us a rundown what we're give us the behind the scenes. Jason: [4:35] Well so the number 1 takeaway from internet Big Show is that retail geek is Overexposed so I apparently they couldn't get any good speakers this year because you haven't been going so I was on stage 4 times which is more Jason than anyone should want. Scot: [4:51] There can be an honorary Kardashian if you keep that. Jason: [4:54] Yeah yeah I I'm not sure that's that'll be 1 more item off my bucket list honorary Kardashianthe, so I mean the show went well it continues to grow it felt super vibrantit was very it was cold but clear. Jason: [5:13] The the kind you know you and I have been to so many of these shows that I feel like, somewhat predictable at this point for those that haven't been a big show it's a heavy networking show there's a lot of private events that maybe aren't even published and are invite only and, it's 1 of the the the few, events where I get all those invites so you're right like you know I I went to a lot of dinners and a lot of Galas and saw a lot of, mutual friends that are of course ask about you and are bitter that I'm there and you're not um but it's a lot of fun to catch up with people and certainly you know I got to a chance to talk Shop with a lot of people which is 1 of the big benefits to me, you know there are some interesting on-stage content I'm not going to do a super deep recap on the podcast because, in in NF Big Show recap would be an hour and the good news is I recorded an hour webinar yesterday so in the show notes I'll put that on and if you want if you want an hour of a big show recap, you you can get it there but like at a super high level kind of 3 3 big takeaways that that we highlighted in the recap from Big Show the, continuing to be 1 of the big topics that all these retail shows that they're all heavily leaning into I have some controversial mixed feelings about our. Jason: [6:32] Exuberant over retail media Networks, so every every retail on the planet is launching 1 every V you know there's a thousand vendors that somehow raise money selling like some service for retail media networks all the the retailers now come to these shows and have booths so there's Giant, Amazon Walmart booths at these these shows trying to sell people ads they've they've kind of turned into media shows, and so NF has a whole extra day of the show if it wasn't fun enough to go over the weekend you can now attend retail media day which is all day Saturday the day before the show starts on Sunday, so a lot of talk about retail media networks a lot of vendors a lot of content on the stages. 1 of my biggest session I did a a session on the featured stage and it was a new format for them it was a debate. Jason: [7:24] And so they had a much smarter sort of a retail thought leader Christina Russo and I on stage together and they they pulled all of, the the popular retail Talking Heads and ask them to surprise us with questions and then we debated the answers and so longtime friend of the show tsukareta had a question like hey Jason aren't all these retail media networks a scam, and, I I kind of felt like I think she thought she was that was a gotcha question for me because she I think she thought like working for a agency that you know is generally super excited about all media formats and has, you know hundreds of people at the moment working on retail media networks I think she thought that would be a controversial question, I basically answered like it's absolutely a scam and the vast majority of all these are going to fail, so I think that probably surprised Christine a little bit that she had to take the the pro retail media position after I after I jumped in on the con position. But, there is a lot of talk about retail media networks it's going to show up in our predictions I'm sure there are people making a lot of money on retail media networks but they also they're not going to be as ubiquitous they're not going to translate to the small retailers as well as everyone thinks and, as you and I know the dirty secret is like all the retail media money is in third-party marketplaces it's all those third-party. Scot: [8:46] Yayanother win for third-party marketplaces. Jason: [8:50] Yeah it's almost like you saw all this stuff coming like 20 years ago. Scot: [8:54] Yeah yeah they uh. Jason: [8:57] Until you get a good new idea I'm going to keep giving you props for the old 1. Scot: [9:00] Okay I appreciate ityou can do my negotiating with my boss. Jason: [9:02] Yeah uh soyeah I'm not doing that because I've met herum. Scot: [9:09] Yeah she's tough. Jason: [9:11] Yeah but fair tough but fair. So 1 big Trend retail media networks love them or hate them there's a lot of discussion about them a lot of a lot of activity in that space the most predictable big trend is of course AI so, half the Boost of the show you if you if you didn't read carefully you would actually think it was an Nvidia Booth they had like, bigger logos than half the exhibitors they they did a keynote with John furner John's the CEO of Walmart us and and the the head of retail at Nvidia was on stage with him talking about all these, these interesting retail use cases in 30 seconds or less the Takeaway on AI is, there's a ton of successful AI efficiency stories where retailers and brands are doing something in Commerce they've always been doing but AI allows them to do it way better faster and cheaper than before and so there's, there's increasingly you know tons of money being saved by using AI for efficiencies. Jason: [10:13] And that that there's some pretty interesting ones and some pretty clever ones and a lot of smart vendors, at the show coming up with that stuff but the the big prediction the coming very soon part of AI That's more game-changing that's sort of a new shopping experience that didn't exist before, is agent-based Commerce it's what so-called agentic AI so if you went to Salesforce Microsoft Google, sap, Amazon's Booth like the the biggest words in the booth were agentic Ai and the the you know all all these big vendors are in a knife fight if I know you follow the, the kind of core AI space, you know openai launched their agent this week which is uh operator which is super interesting and exciting perplexity launched their agent of course you know Salesforce and Microsoft have, uh and Google all have big big plays and agents and so, I'm I'm relatively bullish on on agents disrupting Commerce and fundamentally changing some shopping experiences and breaking search for example I'm making search a lot less important and a lot less relevant. Jason: [11:25] I think all that could happen I think it's really risky to think about the time Horizon for that and at the moment if you're familiar with the gardener hype cycle, agents are kind of still C climbing up the the hype Peak like they have not fallen into the trough of disillusionment yet. Scot: [11:45] Yeah we're going to talk about agents in the predictions so. Jason: [11:48] Hello I should have I should have known I should have held some of my. Scot: [11:50] Uh passion a lot of them are kind of like glass-based which I think's interesting but you and I know you can't have a great shopping experience just you know kind of looking like you're a browserso if you say you know hey. Jason: [12:02] Yeah I think that's a fast early wave to proof of concept A lot of this stuff but that's that can't be how it all works in the long run. Scot: [12:09] Yeah I'm excited you know I've had a fair amount of exposure to the perplexity and it it's okay on a surface level but it falls apart on some basics in our world and then I think I think the glass-based nature of Operator by glass I mean it has to scrape it's it's not. Jason: [12:22] It it acts like a human clicking buttons on a browser. Scot: [12:25] Yeah yeah so we'll see ya. Jason: [12:28] Microservices and apis. Jason: [12:30] The so that that was a super interesting 1 and then the third big topic from NRF Big Show was just kind of the state of the industry NRF released, their final data for annual sales the US Department of Commerce came out with their data the day after the show, and you know everybody in the hallways talking about like hey how'd you do did you do well did you not do well what's your budget look like for this year or are you spending more than last year less than last year what's your forecast like and so there and what the heck do you think is going to happen in the new Administration and how is that going to affect all of your business plans right and so there's a lot of, those kind of conversations and and again go listen to the the the interf recap for the Deep dive but the the super high level is, it's it's kind of mixed mixed news in 2024 we sold 7.4 trillion dollars worth of stuff which is a ton of stuff, but the NRF doesn't like to talk about that retail number they like to talk about core retail which is, all of retail sales less automobiles gas and restaurants so 2024 we sold 5.3 trillion dollars worth of stuff core retail stuff, that is up 3.6% from the previous yearso the question you might ask is hey Jason is 3.6% good, and the answer is it's okay NRF predicted that this year we would grow between 2 and a half and 3 and a half percent so 3.6 is above the top end of, prediction yeah. Scot: [13:58] A small butt I said we they crushed their number. Jason: [14:01] Uh so they beat interest prediction the 10-year average growth which you know growth is slowing down a little bit but the 10 year average growth is 4.1% so 3.6 is less than 4.1, last year's number was 3.9 so 3.6 is less than than 3.9 but so all these numbers are kind of in the range it's a huge number so you know a tenth of a percent is is Meaningful. Jason: [14:25] But the real butt is half of all that growth half of that 3.6% growth Amazon Walmart T-Mobile and Tik Tok shops, so you pull those those 5 retailers out and is a way below average year for the rest of retail, and add on top of that that, consumers were hugely value seeking in 2024 they were trading down a less expensive Goods so we sold more or less expensive stuff which is a lower margin the discount rate was uncharacteristically high so we sold stuff at deeper discounts and so you know all these retailers that are not 1 of those top 5 Growers. Jason: [15:04] Had a mediocre sales year and an even worse profitability year and so you know in the hallways the talk was oh the overall industry maybe did okay we didn't do so well and our Focus next year is, economic fundamentals like austerity we're we're trying to save money wherever we can we're not doing big grandiose plans bunch of retailers are likely closing stores and we've already seen that play out in the week since nrfa Macy's has announced, another huge wave of of store closuresit's it's going to be a challenging year in retail and I'm not sure the, the vendors have fully felt it yet but like when I hear all these retailers talking about how they're cutting back on all their plans and then I go look at the 450 vendors that are all hoping to sell new it technology to all these retailers, I'm like it's going to be a lean year for all those vendors that are trying to sell new new search engines and new platforms and and new new products and services to all these retailers in 2025. Scot: [16:07] Yep it's busy out there did the Department of Commerce their their this is where you get the other and then the really good 1 for e-commerce comes out much later has have theywhat what did they say about e-commerce does that come out. Jason: [16:20] Yeah so so you are correct we get at the moment we havenon-store sales is what it's called um and it, it grew about 10% year-over-year, um so what that likely means is that e-commerce will end up growing at about 7 and a half to 8% is my prediction right nowso so retail grow brick and mortar total retail, grows at 3.6% e-commerce grows at twice that at 7 and a half to 8% so e-commerce is still the fastest growing part it's 1 out of 5 of core retail now right it's over 20% of core retail sales so the law of... /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/35031760

EP322 - 2024 Holiday Recap 01/11/2025

EP322 - 2024 Holiday Recap EP322 - 2024 Holiday Recap Episode Summary: In today’s episode of the Jason & Scot Show, Jason and Scot recap the 2024 holiday season, and give a preview of the upcoming NRF Big Show. The week of January 20th, we'll be publishing our annual predictions show. If you enjoyed the episode, help us reach more listeners by leaving a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. Thanks for tuning in! Episode 322 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday, January 8th, 2025. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason [0:23]Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode number 322. Being recorded on Wednesday January 8th I'm your host Jason retail geek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot [0:38]Hey Jason and welcome back Json is Scott showed listeners happy New Year Jason. Jason [0:45]A happy New Year and happy holidays Scott it's it's been a while it's been it's fun to catch up. Scot [0:50]Yeah you're kind of crummy when do you start giving people a hard time for saying Happy New Year I I was kind of a little worried because I was thinking I bet Jason draws the line at third or fourth of January and here we are on the 8th so I feel like. Jason [1:05]I accept all all well wishes I'm totally merry Christmas happy holidays as long as you want any of those variations are totally acceptable despite the fact that I'm nominally Jewish. And I'm New Year's at least through January my lights are still up out front. Scot [1:21]Okay good I'll I'll try to for the Valentine's show I'll make sure I don't say it that though I'll stop from there forward. Jason [1:29]If it helps people not judge me I think my Amazon smart plug is broken so I think the holiday lights might not be on. But they're still out there it's too cold to go out and get them is the problem. Scot [1:41]Yeah yeah you and I both went warm places for the holidays so that was good because I think we're both facing a cold spell here and I think actually here in North Carolina we may get snow whereas in Chicago you're not going to isn't that weird. Jason [1:56]That that is super weird even if we're both getting snow I'd be a lot more worried for you than me because I feel like we're we're a lot more used to it but yeah it's even weirder that like it's not not snowing here and you guys are going to get get dumped on. Scot [2:11]Yeah yeah we're just going to shut down and hopefully we don't lose power, the so it's been a while since we laid down a pod there's a lot we could talk about any any trip reports you you've been super busy you've done some vacationing but you grocery shopped before the break and then we definitely want to talk a little bit about holiday to kind of go through some of the tea leaves that are starting to come out on how things happened let's start let's start with a trip report anything interesting there. Jason [2:38]Yeah so at least anyone worry I have been traveling a lot I just got a note from my my favorite vendor United that they've invited me to their secret. Highest status program for for another year and this year I'm going to cross 2 million miles with United so um. Yeah I feel like that I had mixed feelings about that like it's a a cool accomplishment slash it kind of signifies that I have a sad life. Scot [3:05]And it's like congratulations all you do is fly would you like to fly some more. Jason [3:10]Yes and the general answer is no um so I did do a lot of traveling last year there were a bunch of trips running right up to holiday but, but a lot of them were sort of Private Client gigs more so than, industry events and I've been on 2 weeks of vacation so I frankly can't remember where I was right before those but the Big Show of course that I don't think we talked a lot about was was grocery shop which, isn't you know focused on the food restaurant and grocery industry in October in Las Vegas and that show continues to get. Bigger and better longtime listeners of the show will know kind of I talk a lot about how. Every industry is getting wildly disrupted by digital just not all at the same pace so some of the you know first categories to get disrupted. Digital where things like like Borders bookstore and Blockbuster video and then Circuit City and Toys R Us and the gap. Jason [4:08]And that at the moment it's the Auto industry in the grocery industry that are getting most disrupted by digital so I feel like grocery shops are particularly interesting show because, in many ways that's where all the, the rapid Evolution and action is in the in the digital space so it was a a good vibrant show and. 1 of the things I'll I'll give props to the show organizers for is you know they always get good Keynotes they always get big names on stage but they share more so than many years in the past I felt like. A lot of the Keynotes had like actual interesting. Information and insights in them it was less like sort of CEOs giving the the prepared PR. Can speech and more talking candidly about what was working and what wasn't working and and you know what the priorities were going to be and what was being deemphasized in the future so I I would just say overall again it was back in October and we're in January now so. Don't press me for for a ton of specifics but I walked away. Feeling like there are a lot of useful takeaways and of course like all the all the networking and hallway conversations were were super helpful as well. Scot [5:21]Cool were you leader of any sessions. Jason [5:25]I was as per all of these events I'm I'm wildly Overexposed and so I I both presented a session I also moderated panel. The like I probably can't even remember exactly who was on my panel so. Scot [5:45]It's been a long time you've got you've got vacation fog we'll give you a. Jason [5:47]I do I do I'm gonna call it vacation fog and hope it's not dementia but yeah. Scot [5:53]Yeah and then on the holiday recap we kind of have to wait that first week of February last I looked is when Amazon's going to announce and then right after that I think you got some Walmart and some of the other folks Target and whatnot kind of put out their data so we won't really know what happened until we get some of that but several of the folks that do pontificate have some data out did you see any data that was interesting that you want to run through I I I saw some of the Adobe stuff I was going to just run through. Jason [6:21]Yeah well so maybe I'll just wait the groundwork a little bit like so again there's. In general we see 2 kinds of data like there's people that talk about what happened in retail which is all all of retail so it's brick and mortar mixed with eCommerce and then there's people that just talk about digital so I know you're going to jump into the Adobe 1 which is, exclusively talking about e-commerce, but of course a long time listeners of the show would know you know the history of the last 10 years is that retail tends to grow about 3 to 4% a year, and e-commerce has grown about 10 to 15% a year for each of the last years so 2024 is an interesting year we you know it's still a week or 2 before we have the final data for the the whole year, but with 11 months of data. Retailers slowed down a little bit like it's growing closer to 3% than 3 to 4% and e-commerce has slowed down it's grown about 7% this year versus the typical 10 to 15% and. Jason [7:22]You know it could be that this is a down year it also could be the law of large numbers as e-commerce is getting you know to be a bigger and bigger part it's hard to grow as fast so it's e-commerce is still growing at more than twice the speed of retail. But that's that's a smaller Delta. Then it has historically been so that's kind of the the backdrop coming into this holiday and then this is 1 of the weirdest holiday seasons of my career. So traditionally what we always talk about is. There's an arms race to start holiday earlier that like you know retailers used to open up their stores on. Black Friday the day after Thanksgiving and they were creeping earlier in the earlier in the morning on Friday originally when I started my career they opened at 10:00 the normal opening time and then they're like wait I'm going to open at 9:00 and get people to get in the line of my store before your store and then I'm going to open at 8, and then retire starts saying hey we're actually going to open Thursday night after dinner and then oh we're going to be open all day Thursday, and fast forward 30 years hey we're going to run our big Prime day sale in the middle of October right and so, every year we talk about how holiday starts earlier and earlier and these sales start her early and earlier but here's the Dirty Little Secret. Jason [8:39]The retailers may offer deals earlier and earlier but consumers have never spent earlier. So if we look at October sales growth it's the same every October for the last 30 years so I get it has it it's not like October has become more important over time as these sales have gotten early and earlier and so when. Amazon announced a huge sale in October and Walmart and Target quickly followed suit I actually. Kind of thought it was a nothing burger like I I didn't expect it to have a big impact and. I was wrong so October is actually been 1 of the most robust months of growth we had this whole year like it was a big spike much bigger than we had any other month. And I thought oh man that's interesting like these these sales really are having a meaningful effect this year. But then we got into November in the first 2 weeks of November were abysmal. And so you go huh we we had a bunch of big sales in October it appears people jumped on those sales uh we sold more stuff in October than ever before but we probably just pulled a bunch of demand in that would have happened in November because. Jason [9:47]The beginning of November was awful and so then we got to Holiday the turkey 5 week and you go well what's going to happen is it going to stay soft like it has most of November but it actually bounced back and so we had this, we had this low from November 1 through November you know 26 and then, it jumped up and we had a pretty robust not not like World beating but a pretty robust turkey 5 and so then you go wow you know and by the way the turkey 5. Extended into December this year because of the the way the holiday schedule works, um and then we've all been real curious to see what would happen in December and the real answer is we don't have the December data yet we have a couple data points so. Jason [10:30]Market MasterCard spending pulse. Is 1 of the companies that publishes an estimate of total retail sales and they published an estimate of November 1st through December 24th so not catching the last minute holiday shoppers, that said all of retail for November and December was up 3.8% so if that's true. Will take it that's that's the industry average growth that's the high side of the nrf's forecast for holiday this year and it, would kind of mean that that, December sales were pretty robust to make up for the kind of anemic November sales so so that's, the big data that I followed about overall retail and then you know we have some better more granular data on the e-commerce side and that that's where like that adobe data comes in so you want to you want to break that down for us. Scot [11:24]Yeah it's kind of interesting as you as you talk about you know kind of pulling it in October we we always talk about the shape of the holiday right and we used to have kind of this you now as you described it it sounds like a w where the the left side of the W is like that October Spike and then you had a little decrease in early November and then the turkey 5 you come is the middle of the W and then you come back down and then we always seem to have this procrastinator kind of pop at the end I don't know about you but I I fall into that for a lot of my things I'm kind of like I get busy at work and I'm like, holy cow it's December 18th I better think about this holiday thing so you always see a little bit of a spike and some of that's driven it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy because that's when all the best prices happen there's the you know the Garff used to call it. Turkey chicken game of chicken discount chicken do you remember that. Jason [12:17]I do I do. Scot [12:18]Yeah I saw he changed jobs that was you're not going to be able to do selfies with him anymore yeah Rob gar. Jason [12:24]Going to do selfies with Rob and I, uh NFS coming up in a few days so I I hope to see them and we'll for sure take a selfie but you're right Rob Garff a long time friend of the show and I I want to say 4 or 5 time guests left Salesforce this year so a big big change he was kind of, face face of Commerce at Salesforce for a long time. Scot [12:42]You have to give us a an inside scoop of what's going on there it reveals secrets you get from the show on our podcast, okay so on the Adobe data, you know they they they call this November and December and they're saying online came in at 8.7% year-over-year growth which to your point is kind of below that 10% where we've been going. But we're getting to a scale where it doesn't surprise me I I think ultimately the lines for retail and online just kind of merge and blend and kind of become the same thing they did say that Shoppers they called it event based they were waiting for events which were basically price drops and they were kind of I guess they don't want to say discount chicken maybe that's not as uh fancy so they called them Event Event based shopping. Jason [13:29]Yeah and if you think about it was invented by their competitors at Salesforce so yeah. Scot [13:34]Yeah oh true yes sorry wrong uh wrong 1 and then this I thought you I thought interesting and it basically said groceries was the fastest growing at 13% so I guess with inflation people were just gifting groceries or or did groceries are just growing fast enough now that you know that's just faster than the holiday what what's your read on that 1. Jason [13:55]Yeah well a couple of things so like when when if adobe's right that it grew e-commerce grew 8.7% over holiday to me that's that, totally makes sense and put your point it's lower than what we would historically expect but it's actually higher than the year to date averages for e-commerce so e-commerce is growing about 7%, through the you know the whole first 11 months of the year so growing 8.7% over holiday actually means. Jason [14:26]E-commerce was a more important factor in Holiday than brick and mortar which I I believe and think was true so that that was kind of my first takeaway from the Adobe data and and as I mentioned, you know there's some really mature categories in e-commerce I mean you know 90 something percent of all books and music is is digital now right like you know well over 50% of electronics and toys. Jason [14:50]Our digital 50% of apparel is digital but. You know less than 8% of groceries are digital so it's still it totally makes sense that grocery e-commerce is growing faster than anything else I don't think it's gifts. Although you know people host a lot more over holidays so they do spend more on groceries than usual. But I think it's just reflecting the the fact that we had lots of busy families that were availing themselves of the convenience of grocery delivery. And you know another Factor overlaying all of this is we we've had this kind of thing that I like to call A vibe session this year that. Consumers have really curtailed their spending on non-essential purchases so when you break down the actual categories uh all year people have spent a lot more on deeply discounted goods and on food and have to have and they've spent less on want to have so you know consumer electronics it's actually been a poor year a parallel you know has been a little mixed but generally a poor year Home Improvement has been kind of a poor year. Jason [15:58]But you know these these have to have categories like grocery have been 1 of the stars all year so if you kind of factor in that, you know people have tended to spend more on grocery just in general and the e-commerce is a you know more substantially growing part of of grocery than it's ever been before it makes sense that grocery would win the e-commerce race for holiday. Scot [16:23]Yeah interesting. Then they said this the so groceries number 1 at 13% the number 2 category was Cosmetics at 12.2% I think the Wingo household contributed a. A pretty big piece of that, I go to Sephora a lot against my will and then they said that category hit 7.7 billion and then they pivot into discounts they made this quizzical statement where they basically said retailers discovered that for every 1% price drop demand went up 1% being forces I was like well let's look at the edge if you dropped 100% demand would go up 100% it seems like demand would actually go up more if it was 100% off anyway I didn't really understand what they were trying to say there it's it and it made it seem like it was just like new revelation I'm like wait a minute this is called. Supply demand curve and I learned it in economics anyway I must have misread it or something I didn't kind of like grow what they were trying to say there. Did you did you have a hot take on that 1. Jason [17:24]Well just a reminder most of the people that were good at Econ economics like don't get jobs at Adobe so I I would just remind you of that but no. I'm just kidding all my friends at Adobe who are super smart um the yeah I. Of course like lower prices generally drive more sales that that certainly true it's probably not a linear scale I think they're more saying like observationally like on their data set that it happened to play out this year that that there was kind of a linear, who asked the city between price and demand but the my bigger takeaway is I think. Jason [18:02]This was a highly promotional holiday period right and this was kind of expected I mean again overall 2024 was a soft year in retail. We we just we'd had a couple really good years after the pandemic of of really strong growth and this is going to be kind of a. You know we'll be lucky if we get to out to an average year it's probably going to be a below average year of growth and, you know there are all these extraneous factors like you know there's there's positive and negative economic indicators but the consumer confidence has been really poor they're they're only spending on Essentials they're all trading down to cheaper Goods so you know more discounted goods and value Goods, and there was a super polarizing election that you know distracted a lot of people and it was the shortest holiday season we we get on the calendar with fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than we ever than we get any other year. And so for all of those reasons retailers were desperate to sell stuff and what desperate retailers do is they discount deeper and so what we always worry about in these kind of years is that retailers will. Jason [19:11]Go deeper discounts to kind of hit their Topline sales goals and clear out their inventory but it actually means that their margins, are going to be really poor and that's 1 of the things I... /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/34814530

EP321 - Amazon Q3 2024 Earnings Recap 11/05/2024

EP321 - Amazon Q3 2024 Earnings Recap EP321 - Amazon Q3 2024 Earnings Recap In today’s episode of the Jason & Scot Show, Jason and Scot dive into the latest developments shaping retail, tech, and consumer trends heading into the 2024 holiday season. Here’s a breakdown of the topics covered in this jam-packed discussion: 🎉 Holiday Season Sentiment & Retailer Anxiety • With the holiday season shorter than usual due to a late Thanksgiving, retailers face the challenge of fewer shopping days. Consumer behavior trends indicate a shift toward essential purchases over non-essentials, creating mixed expectations for holiday spending. • The impact of the election is expected to influence consumer sentiment, media spending, and holiday promotions, with Amazon and Walmart predicted to perform above market averages. 📈 Amazon Q3 Earnings Highlights • Retail & GMV: Amazon’s retail revenue surged by 7.2%, with U.S. gross merchandise volume (GMV) rising 9.9%—nearly three times the industry average. • Efficiency Improvements: Amazon’s focus on fulfillment efficiency under CEO Andy Jassy is paying off. The company’s same-day delivery options and regionalized inventory system have led to a 25% improvement in fulfillment cost efficiency. • Growth in Essentials: With increased demand for everyday essentials, Amazon is capturing market share from traditional pharmacies, offering same-day delivery for prescriptions in select cities. 🏢 Amazon’s New Store Concepts • Whole Foods & Amazon Grocery: A new Amazon grocery concept opened in Chicago, catering to convenience items like packaged snacks and sugary drinks, which contrasts with Whole Foods’ health-conscious inventory. 💸 Amazon’s Profit Engines: AWS & Advertising • AWS: With a 19% increase in AWS revenue, Amazon is now operating at a 38% margin. Demand for AI-powered compute continues to push AWS growth, even as it faces GPU supply constraints. • Advertising: Amazon’s advertising revenue reached $14.3 billion, growing 19% year-over-year. With a nearly 70% estimated gross margin, advertising may soon outpace AWS in profitability. 🛒 Rise of AI-Powered Search & Perplexity’s Native Checkout • Perplexity’s Surge: Scot shares his switch from Google to Perplexity as his primary search engine, noting the emerging competition from OpenAI’s ChatGPT search. Perplexity now includes shopping links, allowing users to check out directly through Amazon, hinting at a new era of AI-driven shopping. • Impact on Retailers: Retailers need to rethink SEO strategies as search shifts toward AI-powered “answer engines” that may fundamentally change how products are discovered and purchased online. 📡 What’s Next for Alexa? • Amazon’s next-gen Alexa, powered by large language models (LLMs), faces delays into 2025. Scalability and usability challenges highlight Amazon’s shifting internal dynamics and potential headcount reductions in its Alexa division. 🔍 Is Google Search Under Threat? • Perplexity’s and OpenAI’s expansion into search could spell trouble for Google. With monetization still in the early stages for these answer engines, the retail industry is watching closely to see how they’ll shape online shopping behavior. ⭐️ Tune In, Subscribe, and Leave a Review! If you enjoyed the episode, help us reach more listeners by leaving a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. Thanks for tuning in! Episode 321 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Monday, November 4th, 2024. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scott Show. This is episode 321 being recorded on Monday, November 4th, 2024. I'm your host, Jason Retail Geek Goldberg. And as usual, I'm here with your co-host, Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:38] Hey, Jason, and welcome back, Jason and Scott Show listeners. Well, Jason, you've been out there traveling more than I have. What are retailers saying about the holiday? Are they lots of excitement? Are they more worried about the election and they'll worry about the holiday? what's going on out in the retail end. Jason: [0:54] Yeah i feel like the the like webster word of the year is going to be anxiety obviously we're a day before election day and everybody's anxious half the country is going to be depressed no matter what happens there but i feel like retailers are also anxious about holiday it's a weird thing we won't we don't have to get into the whole thing but it's the shortest holiday season we get uh thanksgiving super late so it's five days shorter than last year. So there's fewer days to spend on stuff. Consumers have been spending slowly, trading down the lower priced goods, buying more everyday essentials and foregoing non-essential purchases for a while. And then the election is a major distraction. It also is really hard to buy media and break through all the noise. You live in a swing state. So I assume you haven't been able to turn on a tv or look at your phone for several days um yeah. Scot: [1:54] Wall-to-wall and three inches of mail every day it's crazy. Jason: [1:56] Yeah yeah and so like like even if you're not someone that's super focused on the election like it just like the black friday ads just don't break through all that noise and it's more expensive to put that by the media for those ads and all of those things so you know there's some there's some historical precedent in previous elections that you tend to get a little bounce in spending after the election, but no election's been this polarized before. So I'm less confident that history tells us exactly what's going to happen here. And then there's this huge vibe session thing still going on where, you know, people are generally pessimistic and anxious about the economy and, you know, laser focused on the price of goods and spending less, even though honestly, like most of the macroeconomics are actually like pretty solid. Like there's a lot of economic good news that you would ordinarily expect to translate to consumer confidence and more spending. Now there was a slight uptick in consumer confidence for the first time in a while this month. So there's plenty of tea leaves, however you want to interpret them, but there there's very little certainty. My I look at all this and I say, on average. Jason: [3:15] The biggest retailers that are, you know, best at really being highly efficient and low cost. So the Amazons and Walmarts of the world are going to do reasonably well. They'll outperform the market. They'll have lower margins and a bunch of specialty retailers and big box retailers and people that aren't quite as efficient are going to have a really hard time. But, you know, I hope I'm wrong. Scot: [3:39] Yeah. Wow. Lots of wasn't there. So we got through the the longshoreman thing. Right. And then isn't there a big budget thing where the government could shut down or are we is that been kicked into. Jason: [3:53] It's kicked till post-election. It may still be in, there may be another budget thing in December. But again, like, depending on what changes in the House and Senate, like, that could be like a trivial additional continuing resolution or, you know, someone could go nuclear and try to shut down the government. So I think it is a risk. Scot: [4:17] Yeah. Okay. I don't know. We'll see. So lots of mixed messages out there for retailers to try to parse there. Jason: [4:25] Yeah, exactly. But we at least know what happened to Amazon in Q3. Scot: [4:36] Amazon News. Your margin is their opportunity. Yeah, yeah. So on the eve of Halloween, Amazon announced their results. And coming into that report, Microsoft had reported kind of slowish cloud growth. Turns out they're having a hard time getting enough GPUs and they're really having to stretch to handle all their customers' needs, which you would think would be positive. But Wall Street is kind of because they also see this whole mixed signal thing. All they care about right now is short term signals. So they were kind of down on Microsoft. And then everyone and then Meta also reported and they had a great quarter, but then they said they're going to really ramp their spending on GPUs going into next year. So there's this really big kind of wall of worry around all this money on these GPUs, which are for AP. Scot: [5:28] Artificial intelligence or ai and they're mostly nvidia chips so nvidia is off cycle so that i think they report in the 20s like right before thanksgiving so i'm going to be watching that one carefully so you know amazon is largely driven these days by aws so that was kind of feeding into that there's a lot of concern that amazon was either going to miss for a similar kind of thing like microsoft or they were going to announce they're just going to like buy an ungodly number of GPUs. So there was a lot of, I believe the stocks sold off going into the report, which was interesting. Usually Amazon kind of lifts a bit the day of the report. So those ended up being unfounded. They achieved an 11% overall revenue growth and operating income hit 17.4 billion and beat forecast by 18%. And that was the seventh consecutive quarter of operating income above guidance, which is good. So Jassy kind of like reset it low enough and has gotten better now that he's CEO of kind of managing expectations is kind of how I read that. And then the looking forward guidance was very well received. So looking at Q4, they kind of gave a band of seven to 11% growth. When you have 11% and you're going into Q4 and you're kind of showing 11%, that's good because a lot of people worry that they're going to project a slowdown Because when they do this, they've already got a month's worth of data. So in a way, Amazon being Amazon, they're pretty good at reading these tea leaves and kind of figuring out how the holiday is going to shape up. Scot: [6:58] A couple of things I thought in the report I just wanted to call out for listeners. We've talked about this a little bit. This kind of really part of Jassy's era has been efficiencies. And he's really dug into the fulfillment part of Amazon. and it's been interesting to see the results. So they had a lot of progress on the cost of fulfillment and they attributed it to three areas. Number one, we've talked about this before, but they had this new regionalized inventory system where they're just getting better at spreading inventory and predicting demand across their fulfillment centers. So if they can predict, hey, it's getting cold in Chicago, we're gonna kind of balance some cold weather stuff there or anything in that regard. Obviously, that saves the money versus having to ship stuff across the country. So they've improved that over the last year, they've improved this system 25%. And it's interesting, I triple checked this because I thought I was hallucinating. I thought I had LLM bring, but they've, you know, many of these, these have resulted in 25% improvement. So this is not a typo. Scot: [8:04] The, so when you get the product closer, not only is it lower distance to the customer, therefore lower costs, it's like in a closer quote unquote zone, but it also increases the number of products they can put in a box. So there are a lot of customers like you to get a daily Amazon box. And the more they can put in that JSON box every day, the better off there. Scot: [8:25] Then they have really expanded the same day facilities, which results in more of the products being available same day. So they now have over 40 million customers a quarter benefiting from same day delivery. That's up 25% year over year, that number of customers that are having access and getting products delivered same day. And to deliver on this, they've built a bunch of new facilities and a lot of new processes increased. And that ends up really increasing customer satisfaction, conversion rates, and speed to reorder. And then the last one is robotics and automation. There was a lot of talk on the call and then some various notes and in the Q&A from Wall Street around this one fulfillment center in Shreveport. And that's what they call a quote unquote 12th generation system. So I think it's like their showcase where Amazon has put all their best automation ideas into this fulfillment center, and it is showing really promising results, which gets Wall Street excited because if they do it one, they can scale it across their network of north of 200 fulfillment centers. It'll take a long time, but these are the types of improvements that are pretty material. It also saw that fulfillment center and the things they do in there, which is lots of robotics and new ways of automating. It had a 25% reduction in the cost for fulfillment center cost per unit. Scot: [9:43] That's pretty material. So let's say it costs $6 to ship one of these things. You can knock a dollar or two of that off. And this is Amazon and you're shipping some billions, tens, if not hundreds of billions of products. That is just basically margin that kind of falls to the bottom line. Scot: [10:03] So together, these did help with that earnings beat. And they caused a somewhere in the four to 6%, let's call it 5% underage in what Wall Street was thinking shipping, total shipping spend would be. So, you know, the good news is they're making progress on these things. And it feels like it's still early days for, I think the regional, they're probably kind of at the end of that one. I think same day facilities, they have a lot more they can do there. And I think robotics, they're very early. So it feels like they've got another two or three years of runway for improving the economics of fulfillment. Jason: [10:39] Yeah, I think in the press call after they released their earnings, the CFO even said that they believe there's headroom in all three. So they think they're going to continue to get additional efficiencies. And they talk a lot about those three things together, like fundamentally reducing the cost to serve is kind of the language for talking about all this stuff and what the average price is to get a box of goods to Jason's house. Scot: [11:09] Yeah. Another theme that you'll kind of hear as Jason, I go through some of the pieces is this has really dramatically increased consumers ordering replenishables. So, so we'll talk about that. Jason: [11:20] Yeah, yeah. So obviously the most interesting and important segment of Amazon's business is the retail part of the business. The numbers were all pretty favorable. So they hit $61.4 billion in revenue, which is a 7.2% year over year growth. It's a significant acceleration from the 4.6% growth in Q2. And it's a significant beat over Wall Street's expectations. It's like 3% over. So I think the revenue number was very encouraging. And a number of other retailers had reported and were saying that there were a lot of signals of the consumer slowing down. So this was, I think, surprising and well-received. Of course, listeners of this show will know you probably shouldn't care too much about revenue because revenue is a blend of the cost of goods for 1P sales and the take rate for 3P sales. So when we kind of are thinking of them as a pure retailer, the number we really like to know about is their GMV, their gross merchandise value, which is the value of all the goods they sell, whether it was on the marketplace or first party. Jason: [12:31] And they don't tell us what that is, but… Jason: [12:34] Citibank has released their estimates. Morgan Stanley's released their estimates. A couple other sites have released them. And in my pull of polls, the Morgan Stanley numbers are kind of right in the middle and most believable. And they have Q3 GMV in the United States going up 9.9%, so 10% essentially. In that same quarter, we know from the US Department of Commerce that core retail went up 3.6%. So Amazon grew almost three times as fast as the industry average, which, you know, Amazon's number one or number two are just retail out there. So that's super impressive. That's slightly lower GMV growth than they had in Q2, which was 11%. The number we'd most like to compare this to would be Walmart's number. Walmart doesn't report Q3 till November 19th, I want to say. So, so it'll be super interesting to look there. I would expect Walmart to come in somewhere between Amazon and the retail industry average. So above the retail industry, but below this 10%. So that in and of itself is super interesting. You know, Walmart probably beats the industry average. Amazon triples the industry average. Then we still have Timu Sheehan and TikTok shops out there growing faster than anyone's ever seen before. And so you've got, you know, Those five horsemen eating up most of the growth in the retail industry. Jason: [14:03] One thing that did negatively surprise people a little bit was the mix of, which you alluded to, is the mix of 1P and 3P sales. So ordinarily for a long time, 3P sales are creeping up as a bigger and bigger chunk of the overall mix every year. I think it was 61% last quarter, maybe. And it dipped down this quarter to 60%. So that's the first time 1P sales have gained share over 3P sales at Amazon. And the management tells us the reason for that is increased demand for everyday essentials, right? So that's the cleaning products for your house, the, you know, affordable skincare products, the things you use in your bathroom and shower. Or all of those products are more often sold 1P than 3P on Amazon. Jason: [14:57] And, you know, both because of the vibe session and the economic situation that I talked about earlier, and because Amazon's better at same-day delivery, they're winning more of these everyday essential trips. And that is shifting their mix slightly to 1P. In theory, it should also be eroding their margins because these items are lower margins. But Amazon did so well on the efficiencies and the cost to serve that you covered that those efficiencies more than made up for the lost margin from the slightly less profitable mix of products that they're selling with everyday essentials. So that's a super interesting trend. When you hear management talk about it, they're like, we love these everyday essentials, even if they are slightly lower margin because those customers are way more sticky and we get way more wallet share in the long run and the the more those orders we get the more volume we have to drive our. Jason: [15:59] Cost to serve down and the lower our cost of serve, the more we can profitably fulfill all of this everyday essentials demand. And so this is a sort of a new flywheel for Amazon, if you will. But like one tangible proof point on this is they said something like when a customer sees a one-day delivery promise or same-day delivery promise, conversion rate is 20% better than when it's a two-day delivery promise. So kind of, you know, giving evidence to the fact that like consumers have an insatiable appetite for faster and faster delivery and the faster and cheaper they can deliver, the more they can sell. Scot: [16:37] So- Where do you think they're taking that share from you? That's like Target and Walmart or like, you know, do you see any evidence of it? Jason: [16:44] Target is totally possible based on the last couple of earnings calls, some grocery, the super vulnerable place that we'll talk about a little bit later is the traditional pharmacy. So Walgreens, Rite Aid, CVS, and then all the independent pharmacists. They're for sure taking share from those guys. And they talked about that in the earnings, which in pretty funny language. So I'll get to that in just a second. But it... /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/33800487

EP320 - News, First Half Recap, Early Holiday Preview 09/17/2024

EP320 - News, First Half Recap, Early Holiday Preview EP320 - News, First Half Recap, Early Holiday Preview 0:23 Welcome Back After Hiatus 2:51 Upcoming Events in Retail 7:28 GroceryShop 16:02 Retail Growth Trends 21:28 Concerns for Holiday 2024 30:27 The De Minimis Provision 40:27 TikTok's Impact on E-commerce In this episode of The Jason and Scot Show, we discuss the current state of retail and e-commerce. We analyze macroeconomic factors impacting the retail landscape, noting a 3.4% growth in core retail and a maturation of e-commerce, dominated by giants like Amazon and Walmart. We address consumer sentiment heading into the holiday season and the potential influences of the upcoming election and interest rate changes. The episode also covers the role of AI in enhancing personalization experiences, challenges faced by dollar stores, and supply chain issues. We conclude with insights into Amazon’s recent earnings and their strategies to engage younger consumers through TikTok Shops. Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Download the complete 54 page deck of all my insights from the US Dept of Commerce Retail Data for the first half of 2024 here Transcript [0:23] Welcome Back After Hiatus Jason [0:23]Welcome to the Json and Scott show this is episode 320 being recorded on Monday september 16th 2024 I'm your host Jason retail gee Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot [0:38]Hey Jason and welcome back after a very long time, Jason and Scott show listeners Jason our last show was an early May so it's been about a little over a 4-month hiatus and when people ask me I always blame you do you blame me. Jason [0:57]I do blame you and I'm bitter because in my mind. Nobody's really complaining to you but like I I've gone called out on stage by like I've I've been heckled by people that are like what are you going to do a new show. Scot [1:15]It's part of our it's it's a Nintendo like strategy where you you dribble you know if you could really constrain Supply scarcity that drives demand so yeah. Jason [1:25]Yeah it it we are we are playing 3 dimensional chess in a world of checkered players. Scot [1:31]Exactly the the real reason is as Chief digital Innovation retail and payments and grocery officer your title's gotten bigger and your your more famous your allies on a plane I can never record because I'm like how about now he's like Paris how about now Australia how about now India so you've been flying all over the world. Jason [1:52]I sadly I have been it does feel like travel is back there there have been more International trips this year than any year before coid so I I can I can only partially deny that accusation. Scot [2:08]Cool well we're glad that we have you here for for an hour give us an update what are you any uh show you know what's going on out in the world of retail as you've been expanding the globe for the Json and Scott show. Jason [2:20]Yeah it's been another Super interesting year for retail we'll we'll certainly get into some of what we think are the key topics that have been planned out this year but I have attended a bunch of events I I can't even remember which ones where since this this last show visited a bunch of customers out in the field which is always great learning new things from them [2:51] Upcoming Events in Retail Jason [2:40]but the upcoming show is in early October is grocery shopping in Las Vegas so I'll be moderating a panel on. AI enabling Next Generation personalization, at at that show which I always look forward to to grocery shop and then a week later they're they're shop talk is moving their show their other stuff to Chicago so they're going to have their first, fall shop talk that will be in my backyard in Chicago so I'll be curious to see how if the world wants another another iteration of shop talk every year. Scot [3:18]Yeah give us the behind-the-scenes did you like throw down the gauntlet and said shop talk must move to Chicago or I'm not going to attend or and run all the speaking stuff. Jason [3:28]I basically did that with everything I told every client that they had come to Chicago I told shop talk and I told you you had to come here to record the podcast and yeah you'll note we haven't had a lot of podcasts and you know I still have the same 3 customers here I've always had. Scot [3:44]But you got to show them to me for at least that's a 1 w. Jason [3:46]I did but they really just added a show they're just looking for more Revenue so like it seems like it's probably not. Not just me but I feel like your LinkedIn feed has been more active than me and mostly with accolades for for the the fund that you helped kick off. Scot [4:05]Yeah yeah so the just to update everybody I'm in a post spiffy world so started spiffy in 2014 and then, you know decided to to we got to kind of north of a 60-ish million run rate which is plenty big lots of employees lots of things going on and I had started this little side hustle well first of all I started this thing for our little local ecosystem here called the tweener list in 2015 which was just a little passion project and then started a little fund around that called the tweener fund which invests in early stage startups so I've I've really enjoyed that and decided to, move on from spiffy and make this my full-time gig so have been really enjoying doing that and actually have. I'm sure you do this where you have a list of things you're kind of like want to learn about and you can hardly ever get to it and I've been doing a lot of that the last 4 weeks and 1 of the big 1 is AI I've been going really deep on AI and it's been been a lot of fun to play around with all the cool new stuff going on there and I got a couple interesting ideas I'm not going to reveal anything but there's some interesting if you think from a AI native remember how we used to talk about mobile native well now thinking AI native I think there's some interesting things that could happen in the world of e-commerce so I'm going to I may go back to thinking more about e-commerce so we'll see. Jason [5:23]Come on back though we're we're waiting for you the water is fine man they're they're for your point there's a lot of super interesting stuff the grocery shop will be fun a a show after that that I'm looking forward to is NRF because you know they have this Innovation Pavilion and they've kind of upped the the, rigger around recruiting exhibitors at The Innovation Pavilion this year and I think it's going to it's a big year for Innovation so, probably be a cool time for all of us to meet in the New York in January with global warming it's not even cold anymore. Scot [5:58]Not been there not too long ago and it's still pretty darn cold for this North Carolina. Jason [6:04]Oh okay fair enough fair enough I'm just last year was the first time it snowed in like 2 years in New York at at in her uh and then. Scot [6:10]Okay yeah yeah last time I remember trudging through like 6 inches to get to your hotel which was painfully far away. Jason [6:17]I mean that's yeah that's been my normal life so it's been weird that you haven't had to take the heavy coat to New York so although I wouldn't recommend that if you go to New York in January I'd bring that vote uh. And, I feel like in addition to everything else I know we're going to jump into the retail but all the Apple software updates dropped today so cool new icons and emojis and and delayed chats so I can have, like Emoji based chats hit Scott Wingo at every hour of the day now it's amazing. Scot [6:48]Nice I look forward to that at 4:00 a.m. I'll have my do not disturb on to counteract your your attack. Jason [6:53]Yeah although I may need you talk about new things you want to learn 1 of the things I want to learn is how to make Do Not Disturb work right in the the modern app like the system because I feel like all the focus modes have made it complicated. Scot [7:05]Yeah I have to have you know that that kind of funny YouTube where the dad puts on 6 seat belts that's me putting on do not disturb I have to do the physical thing check the moon do my watch hit D and D in a profile and then that's that that combination of things I don't know which of them does it but that seems to stop everything. [7:28] AI in Grocery Shopping Jason [7:23]Yes I feel like I'm in a similar boat but it would be interesting to figure out how to do it for as intended. Scot [7:29]Yeah or just we know it works so just keep doing it do so just give us a preview of grocery shop can AI do better recommendations than kind of the old school way we used to do it. Jason [7:42]So 1 would hope certainly it can do it at greater scale than we used to do it there's some anecdotal evidence that it's. Better it you know part of it I'm I'm curious to talk to some of these folks So So Meta will be on my panel. They they have a strong POV you know what's going on in the digital ad space right now is all the the ad platforms are trying to talk you into going hands off the wheel and turning over. The bidding to their AI engines and I would say at the moment it's an uneven playing field there like if I if I talk to my. Performance media folks they'll tell you that the the AI robots from some of the platforms are very effective and tend to outperform a manual bidding and on other platforms that they they wildly do not so. Jason [8:33]That it'll be interesting to kind of hear their perspective 1 of the panelists is hungryroot, which to me is a super interesting example they they're truly doing AI based recommendation so they're essentially they're a ger. That is mainly filling out your whole cart for you proactively with AI based. Recommendations so you manicure a Char a cart that they recommend to you versus you hunting and pecking for each individual item and putting it in your cart and they they have some pretty interesting sales metrics using that methodology so they're all in, there you might almost think of them as like the Stitch fix of food and so they'll they'll be interesting to hear, and then my friend Ben from Endeavor and Endeavor may be familiar to some listeners not to others they're the largest adult beverage and hospitality company in Australia. And so they they have a nationwide chain of beer and wine stores that are doing some really interesting personalization hubs and kind of Shifting all of their customer touch points to to 1 to 1 so. I'll be curious to hear how effective they all claim to be. Scot [9:47]How do these it seems like you're going to need some training data like how do they Kickstart that do they look at like your email or credit card data to kind of get an idea for what you like or they just kind of start you at a demographic Baseline and build from there or do you know. Jason [10:01]Yeah well so in many cases you've been a customer of theirs for a long time right so they have you you have a significant amount of personal data I mean Walmart launched a predictive cart feature, in January that's in beta so I think it's only available to a select group of. Of Walmart Plus members but yeah it you it's trained on all of th those members pass purchases leading up to the launch of that product. Um so I yeah good question what signals do they use for a net new customer but I think the first crop where customers where they they already had a significant history. Scot [10:40]Got it cool well that's gonna be a good panel riveting it's also pretty wild they have them so close together now that's like 10 days you're gonna have to kind of like Zip back home rest for a couple days and jump in. Jason [10:50]I I do I was going to zip back home anyway so it's not an inconvenience for me but I my heart does go out to all the the shop talk folks that that have responsibilities of both shows because that I'm certain is not fun for them. Scot [11:02]Cool which of the shop talks is bigger now the. Jason [11:09]Shop talk is still the biggest show that's their March show um and it's it's north of 10,000 people so it might have been like 11,000 this year I'm not sure they, release an official number so hopefully I'm not disclosing something proprietary and grocery shop is only about half that size. So think closer to 5 500 attendees and then this fall shop talk this will be the first time so so. All all bets are off I I certainly wish them no ill will but part of me thinks it's a it's a big lift to get people. To add yet another event to their schedules. Scot [11:48]Yeah maybe the Fallen will be more Regional like you know folks in the midwest or east. Jason [11:53]Yeah I mean that that would be my initial assumption but you know they've they've been able to build up some really good shows in the past so so you know we'll see how they do with this 1 I certainly, would like to see a good show in Chicago they're in as you would remember in the old days you know there was like internet retailer here which still exists but I would argue it's it's probably well past its prime. Problem is when you did the orientation and used to teach everyone how to do e-commerce on the first day. Scot [12:20]Amazon yeah that was fun that was they were like well you do this and I was like well how many people come and they're like I usually 100 and I did it and there's like 700 people say dude you vastly underestimated your crowd size at this thing the um. Jason [12:32]I know I know you're a big draw. Scot [12:34]Yeah well of course the uh and what was always funny is people would want to meet I forget what hotel it was either Hyatt, or a Hilton and there was 4 of them around that convention center and like No 1 could ever find each other at that that Hotel chain because they know 1 realized they all had the same name I'm sure that's still a problem. Was always funny to watch the chaos ensue. Jason [12:54]Yeah. Scot [12:55]The only thing works is in Las Vegas when you're at the Mandalay Bay when the hotel is called the hotel and the bars called the bar it's like a whose first kind of scenario trying to get. Jason [13:04]Yeah I'm sure they thought that was really clever when they. Scot [13:07]Yeah that was the worst worst naming. Jason [13:08]When they first named it yeah. Scot [13:11]Cool well you guys have been waiting for it and we are recording this mid-september all of our friends and Retail and e-commerce are making their final changes to their sites they're implementing their new features they're putting new vendors in place and going through the final QA test, before the big October code freeze so. This is when the Pod turns to really thinking about a holiday of 24 it's a fun to believe that we're already here this fast and Jason to tee that up let's set the table a little bit you put out a really interesting kind of adjacent Mega deck on LinkedIn that was really good and I thought maybe we could go through a couple slides of that and kind of tee up, you know how the year has gone so far and then that'll take us into kind of a little bit of a prediction of how holiday 24 is going to shape up. Jason [13:58]Yeah yeah yeah happy to do it thanks man so maybe setting the table. I don't want to go back and get too deep we'll put a link to the deck so anyone that wants it's like 54 pages of data visualizations about about the Commerce industry so anyone's welcome to download it and check for themselves but the the highest level metric that I like to think about is this thing that NRF calls core retail so that's, all of retail sales from the US Department of Commerce US Census Data uh except restaurants Gas and Automobiles and. Jason [14:33]If you go back in time and you say how how much does core retail grow year-over-year for the last 20 years core retail grew about 3.9% a year. And then of course we had this this huge anomaly more recently which was Co. And you know I like to joke that like well you know some people feel like oh man those were really hard years for retail what they forget is we mailed 5 trillion dollars in extra cash to everyone and didn't let them spend any of that on flights or Taylor Swift tickets. And so those were actually the greatest growth years in the history of retail like we like the the peak year was like 14% growth for core retail. So we had that this like Giant mountain of unusual growth 3 years that were twice as big as the normal 3.9% growth, and then 2023 happened and 2023 was right back to the average 3.9% again, and so now we're halfway through 2024 and we're actually below that average a little bit so we're at 3.4% growth year to date. Which is you know meaningfully off from 3.9% like that you know these are these are big numbers so that's 2.9 trillion dollars worth of sales year to date. Jason [15:50]And the you know. [16:02] Retail Growth Trends Jason [15:53]When we look at holiday I I mean we'll we'll talk about it in a minute but you know that's kind of setting the the table for retail for holiday but of course. People on this podcast are probably particularly interested in e-commerce and will know that historically at least in the modern era e-commerce has grown much faster. So the problem with talking about the average growth rate of e-commerce is of course it only started about 24 years ago and so it's. You know the the rate of growth has has decreased over time if you look at the last 24 years e-commerce is growing 17% a year versus that 3.9% for retail. Over the last 10 years right before coid e-commerce was growing at 12.4% a year. Jason [16:37]So I kind of tell people think about you know e-commerce typically growing at 12% a year retail typically growing at 4% a year is kind of the. The the basic ratios so 4 times faster but this year 2024, retail is only growing at 3.4% and e-commerce is only growing at 7.5% so still twice as fast growth but a meaningful slowdown from the, historic average and you know at the risk of of giving away a spoiler. I I don't think that's like some bounce because of a spike during Co I actually think it's just an indication of the maturing of. Of e-commerce and e-commerce is a you know increasingly big chunk of of the whole retail pie it's. E-commerce is 21.8% of core retail so almost 22% so you know we'll spend over 7 trillion dollars this year and you know well over a trillion of it will be e-commerce. Scot [17:38]Interesting cool so that's the full year. Jason [17:41]Yeah well. Scot [17:43]Basically kind of an average year. Jason [17:45]So so last, yeah so so well so last year e-commerce had already started slow down it it grew again the average was about 12% it grew 10% last year and we're only growing 7.5% year to date this year. Scot [17:59]Okay got it okay. Jason [18:01]But. As I keep pointing out to people the story depending on who you are the story is either vastly better or worse than that those industry averages I just shared because the real story of of retail in 2024 is. This this concept of bifurcation right that there are 5 retailers that are vastly outperforming those industry averages. And they are eating up all of the growth in the industry so... /episode/index/show/jasshow/id/33097482

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

TOPICS