The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's a show about life, markets, sweat-equity, and the pursuit of wealth in a capitalist market.
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12-24-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-2
12/24/2024
12-24-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-2
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Wednesday (12/4) and Monday (12/9): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have not rewarded those so inclined. Yet. Does not necessarily mean to be super-bearish. On being "out of consensus; the current set up is good for recession. What will cause it, we don't know. Lance looks at cycles vs trends (Lance's first bank job). Cycle context & psychology. Most cycles are too long to be practical. "We must invest for the time frame in which we have control." Trend-following is better than cyclical tracking. Lance's 60th birthday, cursive writing, and Phoenician writing. The impact of not saving each year: Time frames are critical. 3:17 - Why Sentiment-driven Indexes are Up 14:37 - Lessons from History - What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us 30:25 - The Fallacies of Diversification 30:26 - On Being Contrarian 44:42 - Cycles vs Trends Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP, & Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/ "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Diversification Isn't What You Think" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmN8a-6Yr5g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIfTDuPmsQs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-23-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-1
12/23/2024
12-23-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-1
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/3) and Wednesday (12/4): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have not rewarded those so inclined. Yet. Does not necessarily mean to be super-bearish. On being "out of consensus; the current set up is good for recession. What will cause it, we don't know. The potential risks to portfolios of reduced government spending. Money mistakes made by the young; the best stop-loss tools and strategies; the flaw in comparing portfolio performance to the S&P Index (or any index). 3:17 - Why Sentiment-driven Indexes are Up 14:37 - Lessons from History - What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us 30:25 - The Fallacies of Diversification 30:26 - On Being Contrarian 52:24 - Comparing Portfolios to S&P Index Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP, & Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/ "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Diversification Isn't What You Think" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmN8a-6Yr5g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIfTDuPmsQs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-20-24 What the Trump Win Means for Your Taxes
12/20/2024
12-20-24 What the Trump Win Means for Your Taxes
Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cautiously optimistic: We've been living in a government-driven economy: Markets aren't red or blue; they're green. How estate planning may evovled during the Trump presidency; will the SALT deduction return? Debt focus will change perspective. Richard discovers the NOK Box for estate planning. Investing addicts attending Gamblers Anonymous: investings vs speculating. Creating a financial plan in 2025; retirement & taking Social Security early vs not. Why you cannot start and stop SS anymore. Strategies for drawing on retirement funds before taking Social Security; what is your legacy intent? Pensions vs Social Security; the Art of Financial Planning and income for retirement. SEG-1: Who's the Worst Fed Head Now? SEG-2: Estate Tax Planning in a Trump Presidency SEG-3: Investing Addicts & Market Speculation SEG-4: Starting & Stopping Social Security vs Pensions Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwAIudzT9gQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/global-conditions-portend-a-catch-down-in-america/ "Permabull? Hardly." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/ "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Fed is Never Right," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87m6yGM_M8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Did the Fed Steal Christmas?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjZ21RSDn14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrumpTaxPolicy #Election2024Taxes #TaxPlanningTips #TrumpWinImpact #FinancialFreedom #FederalReserve #HolidaySpending2024 #ChristmasEconomy #InterestRatesImpact #EconomicOutlook #RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #StocksForRetirement #FinancialIndependence #PortfolioManagement #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestorInsights #BullOrBear #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-19-24 Did the Fed Steal Christmas?
12/19/2024
12-19-24 Did the Fed Steal Christmas?
We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether the Fed has inflation under control. Is the Fed going to suddenly pivot to a dovish stance in the first half of 2025? The restrictive policy of the Fed, and short-term investing in bond yields; is Jerome Powell making a mistake? The world is in a recession; why should we care? Because of the globalization of trade. Lance examines the correlations of US GDP to other countries'. Is the US GDP growth normal, or will the US have to catch-down to other economies? We are still experiencing the residual effects of government spending in our economy. SEG-1 Fed Cuts Rates, Adds Hawkish Tone SEG-2: Did the Fed Steal Christmas? SEG-3: Jerome Powell's Balancing Act: Is He Making a Mistake now? SEG-4: Will the US Catch-down to the Rest of the World? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjZ21RSDn14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/global-conditions-portend-a-catch-down-in-america/ "Permabull? Hardly." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/ "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Fed is Never Right," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87m6yGM_M8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElTw9jd0hg8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #HolidaySpending2024 #ChristmasEconomy #InterestRatesImpact #EconomicOutlook#RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #StocksForRetirement #FinancialIndependence #PortfolioManagement #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestorInsights #BullOrBear #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-19-24 The Fed is Never Right
12/19/2024
12-19-24 The Fed is Never Right
The Federal Reserve cut rates 25-bp, as expected, but the language was more hawkish than anticipated, and the Fed's "Dot Plot" of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 suggested fewer incidents of rate trimming next year. That took a bit of juice out of the punch bowl and spooked the markets. But remember, the Fed is never right about anything, and these predictions are the worst on anything they do. Lance reviews the ingredients comprising a correction: Extremely suppressed volatility, narrow market breadth, and declining momentum. On Wednesday, following the Fed announcement, markets sold off to the tune of 3%, taking out the 50-DMA. In order for the market to get a rally back into the end of the year, we need to get back above the 50-DMA, pronto. That will keep the bullish trend intact and set up for the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally into the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87m6yGM_M8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateCut #50DMA #MarketCorrection #SuppressedVolatility #MarketBreadth #DecliningMomemntum #InvestorComplacency #SlowingEconomy #SantaClausRally #EconomicGrowth #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-18-24 Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?
12/18/2024
12-18-24 Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?
It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most opportunity in 2025? This sector tends to perform better AFTER elections. Lance reveals a new temptation on his route to work each morning; Lance and Danny comment on the notion of dumping the traditional 60/40 portfolio in favor of 100% stocks for retirement, with charts and graphs. More commentary on those who would think they can beat the market, and what's in store if the show goes straight to YouTube (no filter). Old maxims about investing no longer hold true with the velocity of information and distortion of the markets. Why does no one want Value Stocks anymore? Lance and Danny recall reading encyclopedias as youths. The thing about Roth conversions...what are the chances taxes will go lower? SEG-1: Fed Day - What Will They Say? SEG-2: Dumping the 60/40 Portfolio? SEG-3: So You Think You Can Beat the Market? SEG-4: Why No One Wants Value Stocks Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w SSenior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElTw9jd0hg8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Permabull? Hardly." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/ "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Opportunities Ahead in Beaten Down Stocks?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HqWOpYV_Qs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "This is Nuts" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drZL-tygAg0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1314s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #StocksForRetirement #FinancialIndependence #PortfolioManagement #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestorInsights #BullOrBear #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #GoldPrices #GoldCorrection #USDollar #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-18-24 Opportunities Ahead in Beaten Down Stocks?
12/18/2024
12-18-24 Opportunities Ahead in Beaten Down Stocks?
Markets are sitting right on the 20-DMA, holding support. As the flirting continues within a trading range, watch for a push higher today. However, there is still some selling-off to be done, and we may see some of that this afternoon following the Fed's announcement. This is part of the set up to get markets to rally into the New Year. This has been a really sloppy trading week...as expected. Basic Materials and Energy sectors remain deeply oversold. Healthcare has been The Worst Performer across the board this year over concerns about what a new administration might mean for healthcare companies and healthcare reform. Typically, Healthcare tends to under-perform in pre-election years and perform better after elections. The sector is deeply, deeply oversold at this point, and that could spell opportunity in the New Year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HqWOpYV_Qs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingOpportunity #BeatenDownStocks #HealthcareSector #20DMA #FederalReserve #InterestRates #HealthcarePolicy #SlowingEconomy #GoldPrices #EconomicGrowth #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-17-24 This is Nuts
12/17/2024
12-17-24 This is Nuts
Retail Sales numbers this week will feed into expectations for 2025. Fed meeting tomorrow: Cut and pause, or cut and slow? Employment revisions are also due, but markets won't care. The stock market is still hitting all time highs, but that's not necessarily the case, sector by sector: Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy are not mirroring the S&P 500; the Magnificent 7 is responsible for the bulk of growth. It's a very narrow market. “When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is “this is nuts,” it’s probably time to think about your overall portfolio risk. On Friday, that was how the investment committee both started and ended – “this is nuts.” Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn will also discuss where investors are thinking of investing their money next year, and some common "themes" on the minds of investors who find themselves struggling with not making "knee-jerk" reactions.Lance and Jonathan reveal the inner workings of our investing philosophy, and why Lance is not a permabull...or bear. Looking at event-driven markets. Navigating markets up's and downs: how to break down portfolio risks. Our audio mea culpa and four-day growth. Strategies for high-wealth individuals: Don't wait to do RMD's! Roth IRA's and backdor conversions: Are they worth the trouble? Why you should over-fund life insurance policies; managing tax risks. SEG-1: S&P 500 vs Everyone Else SEG-2: Is Lance a Permabull? SEG-3: Navigating markets' Ups & Downs SEG-4: Roth IRA's & Back Door Conversions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drZL-tygAg0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1314s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Permabull? Hardly." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/ "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is the Market Really Doing That Great Outside of the Mag 7?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUe60JWmpzM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=3s ------- Our previous show is here: "Why NFIB Optimism Matters" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTJNZ1ndXpI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestorInsights #BullOrBear #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #GoldPrices #GoldCorrection #USDollar #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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Is the Market Really Doing That Great Outside of the Mag 7
12/17/2024
Is the Market Really Doing That Great Outside of the Mag 7
The stock market hitting all-time highs has been somewhat limited to only a few, major stocks. Sector by sector, things have not been quite as grand. Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and even Energy stocks have not followed the same trend as the S&P 500. Why is this? Because of the Mag-7 stocks, like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, etc. Market breadth is declining. Dig into any sector outside Technology, Communications, and Discretionary, and the market is not doing so great. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUe60JWmpzM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MagnificentSeven #SP500 #NarrowMarket #MarketBreadth #BasicMaterials #Financials #Energy #Technology #Communications #Discretionary #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #GoldPrices #GoldCorrection #USDollar #EconomicGrowth #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-16-24 Why NFIB Optimism Matters
12/16/2024
12-16-24 Why NFIB Optimism Matters
Microstrategies joins the S&P 100 (just in time to crash?) Bitcoin continues to climb. The FEd will cut rates on Wednesday, but it's commentary and outlook are what will really count. Look for more volatility heading into the Fed meeting; the current rally may end by the 18th. Oil prices have been struggling, thanks to slowing economic growth = less demand. Gold is over-bought, working through sell signals. Meanwhile, the US dollar is like a rocket ship. Why the NFIB Small Business Index matters (and what it is saying); the NFIB Confidence Index; expectatinos vs actual sales; they always fall short of expectations. Why tariffs are a benefit to small businesses. Outlook is very positive following Trump re-election (most small business owners are conservatively oriented.) Lance reviews how the Economic Cycle works; if economy continues to grow at 3%, inflation will remain sticky. Likely no 30% returns in 2025; what are the causes for concern: When everyone agrees on a positive outlook. A YouTube viewer accuses us of using fake data: The DATA is what the markets pay attention to. Why YOU'RE to blame for Bed, Bath & Beyond's failures & other store closings. Why our childrens' expectations are too expensive. How funky mortgages increase house prices. Why the minimum wage is really zero. SEG-1: Oil, Gold & the US Dollar SEG-2: Why the NFIB Small Business Index Matters SEG-3: How the Economic Cycle Works SSEG-4: Our Data is Fake?? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTJNZ1ndXpI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil Prices Continue to Struggle," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFaqEHbneAw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Looking Ahead to 2025: Realize Gains ro Change Exposure?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N64pdQl_lJ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Microstrategies #SP100 #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #GoldPrices #GoldCorrection #USDollar #EconomicGrowth #SmallBusinessOptimism #NFIBReport #EconomicTrends #BusinessConfidence #FinancialTalk #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-16-24 Oil Prices Continue to Struggle
12/16/2024
12-16-24 Oil Prices Continue to Struggle
Lots of volatility in the markets last week, as expected; we're still on a short-term sell signal. Volatility is expected to continue this week, at least until the Fed's announcement on Wednesday afternoon. Oil prices continue to struggle on a longer-term basis. A recent uptick in inflation data has been a function, in part, of higher oil prices. But oil prices are over-bought, and they're not expected prices to push much higher. Oil prices, in fact, are a function of the economy, and if the economy slows, pricing will slip downward. The longer-term trend for oil prices is lower. Gold prices have been working through a correction but continue to be in a bullish pricing trend. The Dollar continues to be a rocket ship because the US is the only country with a positive economy. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFaqEHbneAw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #SlowingEconomy #GoldPrices #GoldCorrection #USDollar #EconomicGrowth #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-13-24 Looking Ahead to 2025: Realize Gains ro Change Exposure?
12/13/2024
12-13-24 Looking Ahead to 2025: Realize Gains ro Change Exposure?
Markets are setting up for a Santa Claus Rally; inflation pressure remains. What will the Fed do next week, and what will Powell SAY? The impact of tariffs may not be too dire; optimism abounds on Wall Street. Danny & Matt discuss end of year RMD's and how to best handle non-spousal Inherited IRA distributions. Constant changes in IRS rules are difficult to follow; delaying distributions might not be a wise choice. The current tax code could sunset in 2026. Danny & Matt discuss one-time lump-sum gifts: No one wants to pay a death tax, but few are able to touch the $14-million ceiling on such The lack of basic financial education; the importance of having The Talk about money with family during the holidays. The pro's and con's of charitable giving to Donor-advised funds vs charitable foundations; A discussion of tax rates vs effective rates when deductions are applied; the SALT deductions: What happens to them? SEG-1: Market Commentary: Setting Up for Santa Claus Rally SEG-2: End of Year RMD's & Non-spousal IRA's SEG-3: One-time Lump-sum Gifts SEG-4: Donating to Charitable Funds vs Donor-advised Funds Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N64pdQl_lJ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "CPI Was On The Screws: The Fed Has The Green Light" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/cpi-was-on-the-screws-the-fed-has-the-green-light/ "Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-rebalancing-and-valuations-two-risks-we-are-watching/ "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Pressure is On the Markets," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxcoj_-jaAY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "CPI Gives the Fed a Green Light for Rate Cut" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPkzTXYsmk0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2331s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Investment2025 #StockMarketOutlook #PortfolioStrategy #CapitalGains #WealthManagement #FederalReserve #RateCut #CPI #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #InterestRates #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-12-24 CPI Gives the Fed a Green Light for Rate Cut
12/12/2024
12-12-24 CPI Gives the Fed a Green Light for Rate Cut
Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progress has stalled. Lance & Michael discuss the precarious premise behind Microsystem's Bitcoin strategy, what makes for value, and what happens when there's no more buyers. How did the Hunt Brothers' silver gambit differ from Microsystems Bitcoin bid? CPI Recap: Inflation is sticky at current levels because that's where the growth is. Plowing through the final, lame duck weeks of the Biden presidency; there are still some Federal Covid Stimulus funds to be distributed to states, keeping inflation fires stoked. What's happening with Canada and the rest of the world? Economic growth attracts capital; next year may hold surprises for the bullish crowd. Bitcoin is the epitome of The Greater Fool Theory. SEG-1: Generational Wealth Transfers, CPI , PPI, & Santa Claus Rally SEG-2: Microsystems, Bitcoin, & Convertible Debt SEG-3: What If We Don't Meet 2025 Expectations? SEG-4: Tax Loss Harvesting & RMD's - Do It Now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPkzTXYsmk0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2331s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "CPI Was On The Screws: The Fed Has The Green Light" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/cpi-was-on-the-screws-the-fed-has-the-green-light/ "Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-rebalancing-and-valuations-two-risks-we-are-watching/ "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Pressure is On the Markets," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxcoj_-jaAY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASrF7t64kY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #RateCut #CPI #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #InterestRates #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketValuations #RiskManagement #InvestmentTrends #StockMarket2024 #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #CorporateProfits #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
/episode/index/show/lancerobertsshow/id/34416395
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12-12-24 The Pressure is On the Markets
12/12/2024
12-12-24 The Pressure is On the Markets
Markets sold off towards the 20-DMA on Monday and Tuesday, as part of the portfolio rebalancing that normally occurs this time of year. Under-performing and under-weighted stocks have had rallies over the last few days, even as the rest of the market was selling off. Markets did see a bit of a bouce on Wednesday as managers bought and sold to achieve equilibirum. There are probaly another three or four days' worth of this kind of activity, so more sloppy trading to come. The Fed's aniticpate rate-cut announcment next week will set the stage for a nice Santa Claus rally into the end of the year. The rally between where we are now and the end of the year is about 1%. There is a lot of optimism about 2025. There are also many manager who are behind the curve, so they're going to be pushing to make up for lost time. That DOESN'T necessarily mean that HAS to happen. Markets are still over-bought at this point, and flirting with a sell signal. There is still moderate risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxcoj_-jaAY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #SantaClausRally #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-10-24 Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks
12/10/2024
12-10-24 Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks
Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high; what happens if we don't meet them? It was easy managing money this year... A review of Bob Farrell's Ten Investment Rules, with a focus on #9: When all experts agree... Tax-loss Harvesting & RMD's: Do it now. (Why you shouldn't wait until after Christmas.) Understanding the Wash-Sale Rule; speculate in taxable accounts, not IRA's and 401-k's. SEG-1: Post-election Confidence & Portfolio Re-balancing SEG-2: What Financial Success Looks Like - not SEG-3: What If We Don't Meet 2025 Expectations? SEG-4: Tax Loss Harvesting & RMD's - Do It Now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASrF7t64kY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-rebalancing-and-valuations-two-risks-we-are-watching/ "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Markets Re-balance?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-IVRw7qXw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRF6slc1bew&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketValuations #RiskManagement #InvestmentTrends #StockMarket2024 #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #CorporateProfits #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-10-24 Will the Markets Re-balance?
12/10/2024
12-10-24 Will the Markets Re-balance?
happen to the top 10-20% of the Russell 2000: All those high-momentum stocks that were up 50- to 90% this year were sold off because they were over weighted in portfolios, and this created a very big draw-down in momentum on Monday. Markets are flattish in the pre-open, and may achieve some recovery today, but markets are still fairly deviated from their moving averages. We are likely to trigger a sell signal today, which would additionally push markets lower heading into Christmas. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-IVRw7qXw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-9-24 Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy
12/09/2024
12-9-24 Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy
Lance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows originating? When inflation is better than deflation, all over the world. Markets have factored-in a 25-bp rate cut, but NOT a Fed pause. The problem with forecasting: Predictions must be precise, actionable, and time-specific. Why we watch train wrecks: Why not mandate a 20% correction each year? (Markets are so elevated, a 20% correction would be a drop in the bucket.) What happens if we have a 50% correction?? It'd put us back to where we were in 2020. Why banks failed in 1929 vs today: Depositors would not lose their money (FDIC). 2025 earnings growth estimate are 19% (vs 9% historically). Lance looks at cycles vs trends (Lance's first bank job). Cycle context & psychology. Most cycles are too long to be practical. "We must invest for the time frame in which we have control." Trend-following is better than cyclical tracking. Lance's 60th birthday, cursive writing, and Phoenician writing. The impact of not saving each year: Time frames are critical. SEG-1: Sloppy Trading Ahead SEG-2: Where's the Money Coming From? SEG-3: Why We Watch Train Crashes SEG-4: Cycles vs Trends Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRF6slc1bew&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Setting Up to Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuRU3UTCD1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=2s ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQFQg-9b9EQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=2277s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #CorporateProfits #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-9-24 Setting Up to Rally
12/09/2024
12-9-24 Setting Up to Rally
Markets performed well last week, continuing to rise to new highs on Friday. There is now a huge deviation from moving averages, so there's a real risk for correction...but no guarantee: Markets COULD continue to rally into the New Year. The Volatility Index is also suggesting the same potentiality. An uptick in volatility...and a market correction...would be absolutely normal. Any pull back will set us up for a year-end rally. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuRU3UTCD1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-5-24 Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?
12/05/2024
12-5-24 Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirrow such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19% above 2023 estimates for 2024. Bitcoin hits $100,000 thanks to President-elect Trump's appointment of a crypto-friendly chief at the SEC. As for expectations for next year, what should investors be watching out for? (Is a liquidity crisis near?) The Fed put too much liquidity into the system during Covid; those record levels of liquidity are fueling FOMO. Institutional investors are highly leveraged, which are dependant upon liquidity. The Fed's real manadate is to protect its member banks and prevent them from failing. Liquidity is now leaking. The Big Red Phone to the Fed. What if Trump really cuts government spending? Entitlement vs Mandatory spending. Looking to 2025: Extreme bullishness depends upon a strong economy; where are the risks? SEG-1: Economic Weaknesses are Emerging SEG-2: Anticipating 2025: What Should We Watch For? SEG-3a: Record Levels of Liquidity are Fueling FOMO SEG-3b: The Fed's Main Mandate SEG-4a: What If Trump Really Cuts Government Spending? SEG-4b: Market Bullishness Depends on Strong Economy Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQFQg-9b9EQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=2277s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "2019 Redux: Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2019-redux-is-another-liquidity-crisis-near/ "Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/ "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Bitcoin Hits $100,000," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdu7qCeme94&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Time for a Portfolio Reality Check" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja9_6jy2TkA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2423s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Bitcoin #CryptoCurrency #PaulAtkins #SEC #TechnologyStocks #AI #LiquidityCrisis #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-5-24 Bitcoin Hits $100,000
12/05/2024
12-5-24 Bitcoin Hits $100,000
The Big news overnight is that Bitcoin hit $100,000 with President-election Trump's appointment of pro-cryptonian, Paul Atkins, to return as SEC Chief. Consider, Bitcoin was at $60k back in October; this recent climb culminates a long period of consolidation. Caution should be the watchword, however, as Bitcoin is highly deviated from its long-term moving averages. Eventually, it will get a pullback. Technology also had a big breakout Wednesday, after a long period of consolidation following the Yen Carry Trade blowup. Markets are very optimistic, very bullish, which is moving asset prices higher. We're seeing massive inflows of money into equities and ETF's, particularly in leveraged ETF's. There is a lot of speculative investing going on. Investors need to continue to manage risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdu7qCeme94&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Bitcoin #CryptoCurrency #PaulAtkins #SEC #TechnologyStocks #AI #MarketExpectations #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #Diversification #Russell2000 #SmallCap #MidCap #Gold #Dollar #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check
12/04/2024
12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check
Russia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for the rest of the year? Lance and Danny discuss old guy things: Backpain. There's a pullback coming: Time for a portfolio reality check? The challenge of portfolio rebalancing when exuberance is high; should you sell winners and buy losers now? Emerging Markets are not growing; losers are cheap for a reason. The danger of doing rebalancing willy-nilly. On being Contrarian: Markets have not rewarded those so inclined. Yet. Does not necessarily mean to be super-bearish. On being "out of consensus; the current set up is good for recession. What will cause it, we don't know. The potential risks to portfolios of reduced government spending. Lance & Danny review the recent Thanksgiving break with family and the concept of paying your own way; demographic trends, and the evolution of Generation-X as "sandwich parents." Kids coming home for the holidays vs "boomerang" kids; first paychecks and stringing Christmas lights (yeah, we were all over the place today!) SEG-1: Meteorites, Russia, & Expectations for the Rest of 2204 SEG-2: Backpain & Pullbacks: Portfolio Rebalancing SEG-3: On Being Contrarian SEG-4a: Thanksgiving Reminiscing & Paying Your Way SEG-4b: The Roberts Kids Home for the Holidays Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja9_6jy2TkA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2423s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/ "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, 12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixjd2EjcoZw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s95h3jUr3c4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year
12/04/2024
12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year
What should you anticipate for your market playbook as 2024 comes to an end? The S&P has continued its steady trend along the 20-DMA, with a few tests of the 50- and 100-DMA's along the way. While we have had very low volatility this year, we're expecting a bit of a correction between the 8th and the 15th of the month. Likely nothing dramatic, just back to the 20-DMA. After that, portfolio managers will begin the process known as "window dressing:" putting the best possible performers on their books for positive year-end results. That will likely trigger a "Santa Claus Rally" into the first five days of January. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixjd2EjcoZw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketExpectations #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #Diversification #Russell2000 #SmallCap #MidCap #BitCOin #Gold #Dollar #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-3-24 What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us
12/03/2024
12-3-24 What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us
Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. Lance and Jonathan discuss these lessons from history on today's show, plus a discussion on asset diversification, and what happens when all assets become correlated, the fallacies of diversification, and overlap risk. Money mistakes made by the young; the bset stop-loss tools and strategies; the flaw in comparing portfolio performance to the S&P Index (or any index). SEG-1: Why Sentiment-driven Indexes are Up SEG-2: Lessons from History - What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us SEG-3: The Fallacies of Diversification SEG-4a: The Best Stop-loss Tool SEG-4b: Comparing Portfolios to S&P Index Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s95h3jUr3c4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/ "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Diversification Isn't What You Think" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmN8a-6Yr5g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIfTDuPmsQs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-3-24 Diversification Isn't What You Think
12/03/2024
12-3-24 Diversification Isn't What You Think
The S&P is back on a buy signal and is a bit overbought; about to be impacted by portfolio redistributions. Small- and Mid-caps have enjoyed a sharp rally but are now only back to where they were three years ago. (While the S&P has made 54 new highs this year, up almost 27% for the year and continuing to grow, Russell 2000 holders have gone virtually nowhere for the past three years.) Those who have been long-term holders in "allocated" portfolios would be wise to review the idea of "diversification:" Diversifying among asset managers is NOT diversification. Just holding a bucket of assets across boards doesn't necessarily lead to better outcomes. Bitcoin has been in the news of late, getting close to the $100k mark; it is currently sitting on the 20-DMA, which is highly deviated. It will come back to meet the gravity of the moving average. Gold has also been working through a consolidation process. Pay attention to support at the 100-DMA. Similarly, the Dollar has been overbought following the presidential election. It's on a sell signal, working off the overboughtedness, and will be pulling back. What happens to the Dollar will feed over into other commodities. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmN8a-6Yr5g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Diversification #Russell2000 #SmallCap #MidCap #BitCOin #Gold #Dollar #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-2-24 Extreme Speculation Has Returned
12/02/2024
12-2-24 Extreme Speculation Has Returned
Welcome back from Thanksgiving break: Is it time to initiate Christmas Bonds to help Retailers? While markts have performed well, expect some sloppiness heading into the end of the year. We'll have Black Friday and Cyber Monday results later this week. Meanwhile, markets continue to grind higher. What will be the effects of Trump Administration picks and regulatory changes? High levels of market concentration will result in more volatility from regulatory disruptions. Market complacency in the past is a present risk; Lance looks at the impact of government spending, and a revealing chart of richest/poorest states...and the D.C. A sample of THC Pizza, the Thanksgiving Effect, and stupid housing solutions from Slate. Demographics are destiny: Is the US following Japan? Expect more market volatility in 2025; markets are a function of corporate earnings. It's okay to take speculative bets, but control risk. Commentary on MicroStrategy's strategy of using convertible debt to purchase Bitcoin: What could possibly go wrong? SEG-1: Christmas Bonds & Markets Grind Ever Higher SEG-2: Market Risks for 2025 SEG-3: THC Pizza & Stupid Housing Solutions SEG-4: Expecting Volatility in 2025 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIfTDuPmsQs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Extreme Speculation Has Returned" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "It's a Good Time for Portfolio Clean-up" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6eDUHM52Uk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why Credit Spreads Matter" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43V7qFIcbWE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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12-2-24 It's a Good Time for Portfolio Clean-up
12/02/2024
12-2-24 It's a Good Time for Portfolio Clean-up
Markets are doing fine, grinding higher, back on a buy signal, and trading well above it's 50-DMA. We're expecting a pullback over the next couple of weeks as mutual fund distributions occur. The market is over-bought on a relative strength basis. The S&P Equal-weighted Index is also doing well, and has been playing catchup. It, too, is extremely over bought, and we expected to see a consolidation/pullback soon. This is a good time to clear out any laggards you may have in your portfolio, do some tax-loss harvesting before the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6eDUHM52Uk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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11-26-24 Why Credit Spreads Matter
11/26/2024
11-26-24 Why Credit Spreads Matter
Credit spreads can greatly assist in determining the risk of a correction or bear market by reflecting the perceived risk of corporate bonds compared to government bonds. The spread between risky corporate bonds and safer Treasury bonds remains narrow when the economy performs well. This is because investors are confident in corporate profitability and are willing to accept lower yields for higher risks. Conversely, during economic uncertainty or stress, investors demand higher yields for holding corporate debt, causing spreads to widen. This widening often signals investors are growing concerned about future corporate defaults, which could indicate broader economic trouble. Lance and Jonathan explain Credit Spreads, the impact of Credit Spreads on Investments, plus Corporate Bond Yield Analysis and Fixed Income Market Trends. Lance also updates progress on Christmas decor at La Mansion de Roberts, identifies The Most Important Indicator, and the story about Bad Stuffing. Hilarity ensues. Happy Thanksgiving, y'all! SEG-1: Post-election Optimism: Markets Touch 6,000 SEG-2a: Christina's Christmas Tree SEG-2b: Is a Crash Coming? SEG-3: The Most Important Indicator SEG-4a: Bad Stuffing SEG-4b: How to Predict Future Returns Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43V7qFIcbWE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Credit Spreads: The Markets Early Warning Indicators" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/credit-spreads-the-markets-early-warning-indicators/ "Market Forecasts Are Very Bullish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Touch 6,000" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6eDUHM52Uk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Markets Look for a Holiday Rally" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBrh3-984LU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1184s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CreditSpreads #MarketCrash #RiskOn #RiskOff #InvestmentStrategy #FixedIncome #BondMarket #FinancialEducation #HolidayRally #StockMarketTrends #InvestingSeason #YearEndStocks #FinancialMarkets2024 #SP6000 #10YearTreasuries #ScottBessent #TreasurySecretary #FiscalHawk #BadStuffing #MrsRobertsChristmasTree #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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11-26-24 Markets Touch 6,000
11/26/2024
11-26-24 Markets Touch 6,000
The S&P kissed 6,000, bounced briefly over, then fell, rose again, and finished at 5,970. L:ooks for a weak open this morning, and then another rally as markets again attempt to close above the 6k level. Big move Monday in Treasury Yields on news of Scott Bessent's nomination as Sec'y Treasury. Gold has had a great run this year but is starting to set up a pattern to drop off...corresponding with a decline in Yields and a strengthening Dollar. Markets are holding up well; mid-caps caught a huge rally Monday. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6eDUHM52Uk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP6000 #10YearTreasuries #ScottBessent #TreasurySecretary #FiscalHawk #DollarStrength #BitCoin #BitCoinCorrection #DollarDebasement #RiskOn #RiskManagement #SellAssets #PostElectionRally #SellSignals #MarketRisk #Gold #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
11/21/2024
11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia's quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market share to an competitor willing to work for a piece of that pie? A discussion of the anticipated Trump Tariffs, and their impact on corporate profitability; what potential offsets will exist? What choices will consumers make (potentially refusing to buy), and what is the real impact on inflation in the aggregate: The seen and unseen effects and potential retaliatory tariffs. NOTE: Hoover's tariffs are suspect in making the 1930's Depression worse. Why the US' poorest state, Mississippi, has a higher GDP than the country of France: The cost of government intervention. MicroStrategy, BitCoin, and stupid investor investments. SEG-1: Looking at the Risk-on Horizon SEG-2: Why Nvidia is Still "Cheap" SEG-3: Will Trump Tariffs Really Be Inflationary? SEG-4: Stupid Investor Investments Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE5okKP_9hM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trump Tariffs Are Inflationary Claim The Experts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-tariffs-are-inflationary-claim-the-experts/ "Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yardeni-and-the-long-history-of-prediction-problems/ "Trump Trade” Sends Investors Into Overdrive" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1rOq_VH06M&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Wall Street Lowers 2025 Expectations: Should You Be Concerned?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4bUAbsijBk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Nvidia #MicroStrategy #BitCoin #TrumpTariffs #TradeWarImpact #EconomicOutlook #InflationRisks #GlobalTradeTrends #WallStreetForecast #MarketOutlook2025 #InvestingTrends #EconomicUpdates #FinancialPlanning2025 #EdYardeni #MarketPredictions #InvestmentForecasts #FinancialTalks #TrumpTrade #InvestorSentiment #MarketImpact #EconomicPolicy #StockMarketNews #StockMarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategy #PolicyImpact #MarketVolatility #ElectionInvesting #PortfolioProtection #FinancialTrends #InvestmentStrategy #ElectionImpact #InterestRates #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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11-21-24 Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint
11/21/2024
11-21-24 Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint
Nvidia absolutely slayed their quarterly earnings report, reporting an incredible 55% profit margin on their chips, with $35-billion in revenues (I know, Lance said, "Trillion;" it's Billion.) Stocks may trade down a bit this morning, but still within a very bullish trend. Palo Alto Networks also had a good report, beating estimates. Snowflake, however, barely beat estimates, and is up 21% this morning; why the difference? The markets, as of late, have been a "dash for trash." The Dollar Index continues to accelerate. But Bitcoin, the supposedly "Dollar Debasement" play, has been rallying right along with the Dollar. Bitcoin, approaching $100k, is NOT a dollar debasement asset; it is a risk-on asset. Bitcoin is essentially a dollar asset because, in order to use it, you have to convert Bitcoin back into Dollars. Be careful: Both the Dollar and Bitcoin are extremely over-bought at this point. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1rOq_VH06M&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Nvidia #PaloAltoNetworks #Snowflake #BitCoin #DollarDebasement #RiskOn #RiskManagement #SellAssets #PostElectionRally #SellSignals #MarketRisk #Gold #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
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