The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's a show about life, markets, sweat-equity, and the pursuit of wealth in a capitalist market.
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American Epidemic: Living Beyond our Means
07/01/2022
American Epidemic: Living Beyond our Means
(7/1/22) Remember the 1970's--things were so much simpler then, right? Is this really a bear market, about which we're in denial? The Truth Comes from the Data. The Fed is raising rates so they can lower them again; Richard Rosso's Summer Reading List (preview); who's living paycheck-to-paycheck now? American Epidemic: Living Beyond our Means. Tire Terrorists; how much have Boomers saved for Retirement? What ever happened to the E*Trade Baby? Will Social Security COLA go up 10%? Senior Citizens League working to lower Insulin costs; the health/wealth dynamic in Retirement. SEG-1: Do We Need to Go Back to 1970? SEG-2: The Epidemic of Living Beyond Our Means SEG-3: Tire Terrorists & Retirement Reality SEG-4: The Health-Wealth Dynamic in Retirement Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtbkQxRpDJ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2612s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will the Second-Half of 2022 Be Better than the First?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5u70SPxPhA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Is Becoming an Ex-Pat the Best Way to Blunt Inflation?" v=TOhFfAXqajk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2805s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Don't Fight the Fed" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/dont-fight-the-fed -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Retirement #SocialEscurity #COLA #Healthcare #FederalReserve #RateHikes #Markets #Money #Investing
/episode/index/show/lancerobertsshow/id/23602406
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Inflation's 3% Pay Cut
06/30/2022
Inflation's 3% Pay Cut
(6/30/22) Markets have worst start to the year since dirt; will the second half be any better? What does it mean when 31% of persons working in the Financial sector today have never witnessed a bear market; what separates a bad start from a bear market? Why loss aversion can lose worse than the loss you're trying to avoid; what makes for YouTube success; what happens when the Fed hits the brakes (their foot is on the pedal now)? Don't fight the Fed; that's who has the money. Adulting with the Roberts kids; Jobless Claims are climbing as Recession looms. That the Fed looks at: PCE. Earnings vs Expectations; American's are receiving an effective 3% pay cut, thanks to inflation. SEG-1: Where Do Markets Go From Here? SEG-2: The Danger of Dealing with Loss Aversion & Anchoring SEG-3: All Roads Lead to the Federal Reserve SEG-4: Why the Top 33% Are so Pessimistic Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOhFfAXqajk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2805s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will the Second-Half of 2022 Be Better than the First?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5u70SPxPhA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: Can Recession Be Avoided? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzltEgnx9To&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=160s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Don't Fight the Fed" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/dont-fight-the-fed -------- Other Videos mentioned in this podcast: "Sell Into This Week's Strength? Probably A Good Idea" | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart youtube.com/watch?v=ol-9dUp-t4g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #Recession #PayCut #ConsumerSentiment #FoodPrices #SavingsGap #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing
/episode/index/show/lancerobertsshow/id/23588957
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Will the Second-Half of 2022 Be Better than the First?
06/30/2022
Will the Second-Half of 2022 Be Better than the First?
(6/30/22) Markets have chalked up the worst first-half of the year on record; history shows that stocks tend to do better in the second-half of the year...outside of a recession. Much of the recent economic data does not bode well for the economy heading into July, with the risk of recession increasing by the Fed's rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Historically, if a recession hits, markets dip lower. And even though markets are down this year, so far, there is still more downside possible. There is also a strong possibility of a recession in earnings. It all boils down to earnings, valuations, and adjustments--and earnings have not been revised down enough to compensate for the risk of an economic recession. Our advice: Trade carefully, and use rallies to reduce portfolio risk. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5u70SPxPhA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession #Inflation #Earnings #Valuations #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #Markets #Money #Investing
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Can Recession Be Avoided?
06/29/2022
Can Recession Be Avoided?
(6/29/22) Does LeBron James' $170M salary make him inflation proof? Why the rich are weathering the weakening economy better than the rest of us; rising wages vs the rise of robots in the workplace. Inflation hits July 4th groceries; American side-hustles; can recession be avoided? Inflation & the savings gap: $6k/yr in debt to maintain standard of living. SEG-1: Measuring Consumer Sentiment SEG-2: Why Inflation Doesn't Hurt the Wealthy (as much) SEG-3: Hot Dogs, Inflation, & Side-hustles SEG-4: Inflation & The Savings Gap Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will June's End Provide Lift to Markets?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaPk8S3MP0A&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: Pt.1: The Bullwhip Effect https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWUzF01b1T4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 Pt.2: What is Needed for Stable Energy Pricing is Stable Energy Production https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1DgopbUOxg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=30s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Earnings Recession Coming As Fed Hikes Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-recession-coming-as-fed-hikes-rates/ -------- Other Videos mentioned in this podcast: "Sell Into This Week's Strength? Probably A Good Idea" | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart youtube.com/watch?v=ol-9dUp-t4g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #Recession #ConsumerSentiment #SideHustle #FoodPrices #SavingsGap #Deflation #Recession #EnergyPolicy Markets #Money #Investing
/episode/index/show/lancerobertsshow/id/23577131
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Will June's End Provide Lift to Markets?
06/29/2022
Will June's End Provide Lift to Markets?
(6/29/22) Poorer than expected economic data triggered a market sell-off on Tuesday: The Richmond Fed Survey reported a big drop in all components, suggesting a recession is becoming a much higher probability. Similarly, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the Dallas Fed indicators show pervasive economic slowing, thanks to tighter monetary policy, higher inflation, and higher interest rates. The Census Board's Consumer Confidence survey revealed big declines in street-level sentiment. Markets didn't like that, and fell to retest support at the previous lows of May. The hope now is that as June comes to an end, portfolio rebalancing and shuffling will provide a bit of a lift to markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaPk8S3MP0A&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession #Inflation #WindowDressing #PortfolioRebalancing #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #Markets #Money #Investing
/episode/index/show/lancerobertsshow/id/23576588
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What is Needed for Stable Energy Pricing is Stable Energy Production
06/28/2022
What is Needed for Stable Energy Pricing is Stable Energy Production
(6/28/22) Calls for regulating Cryptocurrency are echoing our sentiments two years ago; Monday's market response was partially affected. This is not the bottom...yet. The Fed is "hard at work" fighting inflation, while should be focused on economic growth; inflation will cure itself. How the "bullwhip effect" will hurt. The problem with MMT and "free" money. House prices are falling as interest rates rise; we're seeing inflation's prelude to deflation; the effect on commodities & Dr. Copper. The Fed is in a trap, and using lagging data. The Fed is about to make a big policy mistake, hiking rates too fast instead of allowing inflation to take care of itself. But you can't fight the Fed. Fact Checkers' demands for censorship because their videos are garbage. Why does the Biden administration pattern its energy policy's after Germany's? How's what working out for them? What is needed for stable energy pricing is stable energy production (oil). SEG-1: Regulating Crypto & Effects on Markets SEG-2: The Fed Hard at Work & The Bullwhip Effect SEG-3: The Fed's Policy Mistake SEG-4: You Tube Censorship & Green Energy Foibles Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: Pt.1: The Bullwhip Effect https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWUzF01b1T4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 Pt.2: What is Needed for Stable Energy Pricing is Stable Energy Production https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1DgopbUOxg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=30s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Can Markets Continue Momentum at Quarter's End?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7w2mnXFudY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "The Affordable Care Act Was Neither Affordable or Healthcare," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-74hJNiGWc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Earnings Recession Coming As Fed Hikes Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-recession-coming-as-fed-hikes-rates/ -------- Other Videos mentioned in this podcast: "Sell Into This Week's Strength? Probably A Good Idea" | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart youtube.com/watch?v=ol-9dUp-t4g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullwhipEffect #MarketRally #FedMistake #Inflation #Deflation #Recession #EnergyPolicy Markets #Money #Investing
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Can Markets Continue Momentum at Quarter's End?
06/28/2022
Can Markets Continue Momentum at Quarter's End?
(6/28/22) $30-Billion in rebalancing is at play this week as the end of June marks the end of the quarter, and fund managers have much to do in the way of "window dressing" prior to reporting their results by the end of the week. This has provided an upward bias to markets over the last few days, following last week's 6.5% rally. After essentially consolidating yesterday, S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ futures are positive ahead of the opening bell. Markets are expected to challenge the 20-DMA at the open, and above that there's resistance at the 50-DMA--the level at which markets consolidate back in late April. If the S&P can achieve the 4,000 level, that will be a good place to reduce risk in portfolios. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7w2mnXFudY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #WindowDressing #PortfolioRebalancing #Markets #Money #Investing
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The Affordable Care Act was Neither Affordable or Caring
06/27/2022
The Affordable Care Act was Neither Affordable or Caring
(6/27/22) The end of June signals end of quarter rebalancing; if we're going to have a Recession, it will have been The Most Forecast Recession Ever. How much higher can markets rally? Investors have been trained (by the Fed) to believe markets cannot go down. Running in Houston Heat; the impact of healthcare on Retirement planning; healthcare costs are high because of demand on the system; The Affordable Care Act was neither affordable or caring; Sitting is the new smoking. Stocks shrug off ignorant comments from Congress and hawkishness of the Fed; there's a need for a bear market rinse cycle on Wall Street. SEG-1: The Most-forecast Recession in History SEG-2: How Much Higher Can Markets Rally? SEG-3: The Impact of Health on Retirement SEG-4: The Need for a Bear Market Rinsing Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-74hJNiGWc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will the Dust Settle This Week?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AugBq93GC9k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Fighting Elizabeth Warren," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhjGYdhEm9U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2590s -------- Other Videos mentioned in this podcast: "Sell Into This Week's Strength? Probably A Good Idea" | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart youtube.com/watch?v=ol-9dUp-t4g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession #MarketRally #BearMarket #Healthcare #Retirement #Markets #Money #Investing
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Will the Dust Settle This Week?
06/27/2022
Will the Dust Settle This Week?
(6/27/22) Markets rallied 6.5% on the S&P last week--was that the bottom? We won't really know until the dust settles from this week, with a $30-B rebalancing act coming as the end of June marks the end of the quarter. This regular "window-dressing" parade will add more buying pressure to the markets ahead of the first two weeks of July--which tend to be strong performers, historically. Caveat: Seasonality hasn't worked out too well for markets this year...2022 has had one of the worst starts to the year since the 1930's. However, over-sold market conditions are turning up; there is some support remaining for a rally. The target is between 3,900 and 4,000 at the 50-DMA. We're seeing the same set up for June that we saw in May, when a rally wiped out most of the losses. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AugBq93GC9k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BearMarket #WindowDressing #PortfolioRebalacning #MarketRally #Markets #Money #Investing
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Is a Roth Conversion Right for You?
06/24/2022
Is a Roth Conversion Right for You?
(6/24/22) Washington Word Salad & Transitioning: Gasoline Prices, markets' anemic rally; that is the Bond market saying? What in the world is the Fed trying to do? What will markets do without "Fed Juice?" Is a Roth conversion really in your best interests? Depends on what your tax status will be. Janet Yellen's transformative weekend greeting; Secure Act 2.0 gets another iteration; financial literacy and the hierarchy of savings. SEG-1: What the Hell is the Fed Doing? SEG-2: The Cleansing of Recession; should Cryptocurrency be Regulated? SEG-3: Roth Redo & Calculating All the Variables SEG-4: Yellen's back; Secure Act 2.0 & Financial Literacy RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S4ifVF9OSo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2660s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Have Markets Priced-in Recession?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oh5QfrxQuc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Fighting Elizabeth Warren," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhjGYdhEm9U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2590s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #Jerome Powell #FederalReserve #ElizabethWarren #Recession #JanetYellen #Taxes #SecureAtct2_0 #Markets #Money #Investing
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Fighting Elizabeth Warren
06/23/2022
Fighting Elizabeth Warren
(6/23/22) The end of June--and end of the Quarter looms: Can markets continue to rally despite a defined downtrend? Political Season is coming; populace votes according to pocketbook; solution to high energy prices is in the need for creating an environment more conducive to oil production: Stop villainizing oil companies. Houston Heat & Landscape; Jerome Powell vs Elizabeth Warren; difference between recession & depression; running the economy over a cliff; a bear market will make you want to get out of the market; the importance of exposure to equities all the time. Risk management vs risk aversion. SEG-1: Market Potential for Rally, Remain in Defined Downtrend SEG-2: Oil Prices & Politics SEG-3: Jerome Powell's Battle w Inflation & Elizabeth Warren SEG-4: What Bear markets Make You Want to Do RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhjGYdhEm9U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2590s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Have Markets Priced-in Recession?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oh5QfrxQuc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Who Sets the Price for Gasoline You Pay?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm24yVS5eG8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #Jerome Powell #FederalReserve #ElizabethWarren #Recession #Markets #Money #Investing
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Have Markets Priced-in Recession?
06/23/2022
Have Markets Priced-in Recession?
(6/23/22) Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony Wednesday that he might have to create a recession to contain inflation roiled markets, and he's set for a second round today. Futures have been reversing early losses, and the question now is whether markets can keep it up. We contend that any rally should be sold-in to; selling pressure continues to appear in these rallies because of so many investors feeling trapped, looking for any relief. We're looking for markets to rally back to the 20-DMA and 50DMA, somewhere between 3,950 and 4,000. Markets continue to price-in what's going on economically, but have not yet priced-in a recession, nor the decline in earnings estimates that has to occur as the economy slows. In turn, prices will have to decline as adjustments are made for lower earnings. Similarly, yields have not yet priced-in a recession; we're looking for interest rates to fall sharply to 2-1/2%. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oh5QfrxQuc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Recession #Inflation #InterestRates #OilPrices #MarketRally #Markets #Money #Investing
/episode/index/show/lancerobertsshow/id/23517902
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Who Sets the Price You Pay for Gasoline?
06/22/2022
Who Sets the Price You Pay for Gasoline?
(6/22/22) Markets rallied +2% following a three-day weekend; gasoline prices took a slight slide, while mortgage rates spiked. Who sets the price you pay for gasoline? Not the major oil companies; why a gas tax "holiday" won't work; the real oil company profit margin story. The truth about home ownership, and why Millennials can't afford a house (Netflix has nothing to do with it.) Houses are not assets; financialization of everything, and where mortgage rates ought to be. Summer travel plans & Savings myths; lining up for Jerome Powell's "soft" landing; if the Fed would just stop... SEG-1: Markets' Post-holiday Rally SEG-2: Gasoline Tax Holiday Realities SEG-3: Why Millennials Can't Afford a House SEG-4: Softer Summer Travel Plans RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm24yVS5eG8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: What Happens to Oil Prices After Big Spikes?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ROFhlaCmI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Is the Fed Determined to Make Another Policy Mistake" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycqSp0gcwS0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1814s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-reversions-the-inevitable-outcome-of-recessions/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #GasolinePrices #ProfitMargins #HomeOwnership #Millennials #Boomers #Netflix #Jerome Powell #FederalReserve #PolicyMistakes #Inflation #JanetYellen #Recession #Markets #Money #Investing
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What Happens to Oil Prices After Big Spikes?
06/22/2022
What Happens to Oil Prices After Big Spikes?
(6/22/22) Markets bounced 2% following a long weekend break. This morning's early morning sell-off may keep prices suppressed. Consolidations lead to failures and short-term increases, making it difficult for investors to make any returns. Oil prices are beginning to exhibit this behavior, too, down about 4% after big run up. We're looking for a bounce at about $96 to $100/bbl. As demand slows down as the economy weakens, the diminished demand for fuel will further weaken prices. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ROFhlaCmI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-reversions-the-inevitable-outcome-of-recessions/ ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #MarketBounce #SupplyDemand #Markets #Money #Investing
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Is the Fed Determined to Make Another Policy Mistake?
06/21/2022
Is the Fed Determined to Make Another Policy Mistake?
(6/21/22) Markets needed the holiday break; The Crypto Story: Liquidation; Sentiment & Market correlation: As negative as it gets. Oil Stocks pull back, but they're not finished yet. Gasoline prices slip; ICE's vs EV's--the break-even point is greater than expected; how inflation hit Warren Buffett's luncheon; The Fed's dilemma: Inflation vs Financial Instability: the Fed is determined to make (another) policy mistake; Bitcoin Bites It; Dave Portnoy - the poster-child for sports gambling-to-stock-gambling; the math of market losses--why you never catch up. SEG-1: The Crypto Story: Liquidation & Negative Sentiment SEG-2: ICE's vs EV's - where's the break-even point? SEG-3: The Fed's Determined to Make a Policy Mistake SEG-4: The Math of Market Losses RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycqSp0gcwS0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1814s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Are Markets Near a Short-term Bottom? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZvP5u3oTYc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Did the Fed Just Guarantee a Recession?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49-4SCSOUIE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-price-reversions-the-inevitable-outcome-of-recessions/ -------- Videos mentioned in this show: https://www.ted.com/talks/graham_conway_the_contradictions_of_battery_operated_vehicles -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #PolicyMistakes #Cryptocurrency #Inflation #JanetYellen #Recession #Markets #Money #Investing
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Are Markets near a Short-term Bottom?
06/21/2022
Are Markets near a Short-term Bottom?
(6/21/22) Last week's sell-off pushed markets down sharply, and markets tried to stabilize on Friday, ahead of the long weekend. As we produce this report, all indexes are showing the possibility of a bit of a bounce this morning. Markets are over-sold down to three standard deviations below the 50-DMA, putting more downward pressure on stocks as the average continues to slide. This and other indicators are at levels from which we should start to see a bounce. A reasonable retracement level would be right at the 3,900 to 4,000 point for a rally. We're suggesting that any rally be used to sell into to reduce risk and raise cash. A break above the 50-DMA will give you a shot at the 200-DMA. So long as the Fed continues to aggressively raise rates, keep a watch for indications of a breakout to the upside---something we don't expect to happen today. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZvP5u3oTYc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBottom #MarketSellOff #FederalReserve #RateHike #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing
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Money Mistakes to Avoid in a Bear Market
06/17/2022
Money Mistakes to Avoid in a Bear Market
(6/17/22) Richard Rosso channels his inner Janet Yellen; markets have lost all confidence in the Executive Branch and the Federal Reserve; money tips for a bear market: Household liquidity is key for survival; examine spending, and hold off on major purchases; a Recession is necessary for restoring value to the system; recognizing the difference between a reflexive rally & a bullish trend. The Financial Efficacy of Solar Panels; ESG's are about to bite investors on the backside; Wall St. will exploit anything for a buck; the Anti-ESG Fund = The S&P 500; The most important area consumers need to see relief: Food & Gasoline; It's Hot; cold coffee brews, Father's Day; living in Retirement in Troubled times; guaranteed income will replace stocks & bonds in investor appeal. SEG-1: Channeling Janet Yellen SEG-2: Knowing the Difference Between Reflexive Rally & Bullish Trends SEG-3: Why ESG's Are About to Bite Back SEG-4: It's Hot; Cold Coffee, Father's Day; Living in Retirement in Troubled Times Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ_rMAazIY8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Fed Hikes Rates 75bp - What now? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b5_MCVSOag&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Did the Fed Just Guarantee a Recession?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49-4SCSOUIE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BearMarket #MoneyMistakes #Inflation #JanetYellen #Recession #Markets #Money #investing
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Did the Fed just Guarantee a Recession?
06/16/2022
Did the Fed just Guarantee a Recession?
(6/16/22) The Fed boosts rates by 75-bp; Joe Biden takes on Big Oil, and Big Oil responds; Retail Sales are measured in dollars, not in volume (what happens when you're paying more for less); Markets as predictor of where economy is heading. The Fed's rate hikes are politically motivated; why the "Headline Number" is so called; Jerome Powell is lying about the economy; Regional Fed's and U. Mich Sentiment are closer to reality. Joe Biden isn't totally to blame for high energy prices...but he's not helping, either. Ten Things to lower oil prices. SEG-1: Biden vs Big Oil: Measuring Retail Sales in Dollars, Not Volume SEG-2: The Fed's Rate Hikes are Politicized SEG-3: It's Not All Biden's fault, but He's Not Helping SEG-4: Blame ESG's for High Gasoline Prices Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49-4SCSOUIE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Fed Hikes Rates 75bp - What now? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b5_MCVSOag&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Should You Move to Mexico to Escape Inflation?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xu-ifsc52ig&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #FederalReserve #RateHike #GasolinePrices #JoeBiden #RetailSales #Markets #Money #investing
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Fed Hikes Rates 75bp - What now?
06/16/2022
Fed Hikes Rates 75bp - What now?
(6/16/22) Markets rallied on Wednesday despite a 75bp rate hike announced by the Fed. Then, overnight, traders sobered-up to the news that the Fed will be more aggressive in the future about raising rates additionally--not a good omen for strong economic growth. Markets are three standard deviations over-sold, and a short-term buy-signal failed to trigger. Markets continue to trade in a defined downtrend, and are now near the bottom of that range. Markets will have to hold support at this level in order to produce any kind of a short term rally over the next few days. Earnings estimates have yet to fall in reflecting the future impact of higher rates and diminished spending. Ongoing sell signals would indicate lower valuations to come. That being said, use any bounces we might get over the next few days to raise some cash and trim risks from portfolios. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b5_MCVSOag&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #RateHike #Inflation #Markets #Money #Investing
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Should You Move to Mexico to Escape Inflation?
06/15/2022
Should You Move to Mexico to Escape Inflation?
(6/15/22) What will the Fed do? Between the heat, high prices, wars, and uncertainties, it seems to be the Summer of Apocalypse. The Fed is set to raise interest rates (50 vs 75 basis points?) How will the Fed fight inflation? A more pressing problem is Financial Instability; the impact of inflation; high oil prices tend to cure high prices; the Fed's mistake is in trying to extend the business cycle; dealing w inflation by moving to Mexico; the root of unrest is economic inequality; the dilemma of inflation vs deflation (which is out of the Fed's control). When we get to the point of buying equities, you're not going to want to. SEG-1: Summer Apocalypse: What's the Fed's Biggest Problem? SEG-2: Trying to Control Economic Outcomes has Bad Outcomes SEG-3: Dealing w Inflation: Moving to Mexico SEG-4: What Inflation Will Be Like 12-months from Now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xu-ifsc52ig&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: What Happened to Cryptocurrencies?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9yb6IliilQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "What's the Best Measure of Inflation: CPI, PPI, or PCE?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YO9VSoXnZ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2801s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #FederalReserve #Cryptocurrency #RateHike #BearMarket #BullMarket #SummerApocalypse #Mexico #2012Movie #Markets #Money #investing
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What Happened to Cryptocurrencies?
06/15/2022
What Happened to Cryptocurrencies?
(6/15/22) Cryptocurrencies were supposed to be the ultimate alternatives to Gold and the Dollar, but that hasn't worked out so well: Back in 2015 there was a big move towards crypto's as the new "digital gold," with the ability to combat inflation--which seemed to work well, so long as a continuous stream of liquidity into the markets was unabated. Bitcoin soared to the $70,000 range, but since has fallen dramatically to $20k as the premise of crypto becoming the replacement for Gold as a hedge against inflation has fallen apart, and the speculative nature of crypto has evaporated as losses mount. As in any speculative asset, when losses reach a certain, critical point, margin calls and negative sentiment are triggered, and liquidation events occur. We will not be surprised to see a significant reduction in margin debt in the next report from FINRA. Ethereum has similarly lost a tremendous amount of value, down 60% for the year. Have these assets lost all of their value? Not necessarily; but speculative investment assets will always exhibit spectacular booms and busts. The question remains--when will these find their bottom, and when will a more opportune time to invest in them become apparent? We are now seeing significant deviations from long-term moving averages, suggesting a decent tradable rally--but we'd recommend using that rally to liquidate weaker positions, reduce risk, and raise cash ahead of a better opportunity for a longer-term, positive trend in which to invest. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9yb6IliilQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Cryptocurrency #BitCoin #Ethereum #SpeculativeAsset #Markets #Money #Investing
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What's the Best Measure of Inflation: CPI, PPI, or PCE?
06/14/2022
What's the Best Measure of Inflation: CPI, PPI, or PCE?
(6/14/22) Markets technically enter bear territory, but a longer perspective belies the angst; gauging the markets' response to inflation (which will reverse); what the Fed Whisper says about a 75-bp rate hike; the faster the Fed raises rates, the higher the volatility; CPI, PPI, or PCE: What's the best measure of inflation? When will inflation end? Senior gifts; stock buy-back blackout period; Lance's Narci-drone; the love affair w Cryptocurrency: The Thrill is Gone. SEG-1: Markets "Technically" Enter Bear Territory SEG-2: What the Fed Whisperer Says About Interest Rates SEG-3: CPI, PPI, & PCE: Measuring Inflation SEG-4: How Stock Buy-back Blackout Impacts Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YO9VSoXnZ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2801s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Should You Buy the Rip?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQKHViTPWAg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Consumer Sentiment at Lower Levels Now than in Financial Crisis," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSFzZvG4IW8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Consumer is Getting Squeezed:" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-consumer-is-getting-squeezed InvestorProtection.org -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Gasoline #PPI #PCE #FedWhisperer #Markets #Money #investing
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Should You Sell the Rip?
06/14/2022
Should You Sell the Rip?
(6/14/22) Markets have officially declined more than 20%--the arbitrary measurement that defines a "bear market," but what does that really mean? (It's FELT like a bear market for the past several months!) Markets are not two standard deviations below the 50-DMA, a point from which markets have previously bounced. "Buy the Dip" is no longer in vogue--it's "Sell the Rip." The next level of resistance in the S&P will be at around 4,000; MACD and money flow indicators have reversed from "buy" to "sell" signals, all suggesting markets will go lower over the next few weeks. So, what's the difference between a "technical" bear market and a real one? That's when a previous, bullish trend of rising prices is broken and begins to trend lower. What matters is the perspective you use to view these trends. While markets ARE down 21% this year, from peak to trough, we are still above the 2020 market peak, and the 200-week moving average has been where markets have found bottoms--and that trend has remained positive. What we're seeing is not a bear market but a bull market correction. Markets are more over-sold now than at the bottom of 2020 and 2018. If markets go through a more normal correction, watch for the S&P to drop down to test the 200-WMA at about 3,500 or 3,400. As liquidity exits the market, things will revert to where they should have been over the past two years, in terms of valuation and earnings growth. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQKHViTPWAg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BearMarket #MarketCorrection #200WMA #Markets #Money #Investing
/episode/index/show/lancerobertsshow/id/23424332
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Consumer Sentiment at Lower Levels Now than in Financial Crisis
06/13/2022
Consumer Sentiment at Lower Levels Now than in Financial Crisis
(6/13/22) Inflation is hotter than expected--IRS increasing mileage allowance in mid-year; largest inflation gauge is Homeowners' Equivalent Rent--w a 3-mo lag; Bitcoin sustained a 25% bloodbath over the weekend; inflation is hitting everything: Lottery Tickets, gasoline, Beer, Costco Peanut butter; Biden polling at all time lows; consumer sentiment at lower levels than in Financial Crisis; McDonald's quest for profitability; job hopping at restaurants; fallacies of oil companies' profits: inflation breaks things; markets' biggest problem is lack of clarity; bear markets don't end while everyone still wants to buy. Inflation is driving everything; GAO: 20% of PPP payments were fraudulent; Geico's lawsuit loss; Demand for random crap as indicator. SEG-1: Hotter Inflation & Bitcoin Bloodbath SEG-2: Lottery Tickets, Gasoline, & Beer: Inflation everywhere SEG-3: McDonald's Better Bad Choices for Profitability SEG-4: Inflation & the Demand for Random Crap Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSFzZvG4IW8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will the Fed Be More Aggressive?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pjhj5Ai7Yyo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "How the Consumer is Getting Squeezed," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S82YQo2N_vA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Consumer is Getting Squeezed:" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-consumer-is-getting-squeezed InvestorProtection.org -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Gasoline #Peanut_butter #Geico #McDonalds #Markets #Money #investing
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Will the Fed Be More Aggressive?
06/13/2022
Will the Fed Be More Aggressive?
(6/13/22) Market Futures are sharply lower, with the Dow set to open in negative territory--which could be the low-point of the day. The hotter-than-expected inflation print released Friday is worrying investors that the Fed might move more aggressively in hiking rates in the near-term. That announcement comes on Wednesday, so markets are trading off ahead of the news. We expect the FOMC to follow thru on a 50-bp rate hike; of more interest will be the Fed's commentary for hints of subsequent actions later this Summer. Add to the mix a $3.2-T options expiration this week, and you've got a great recipe for market volatility. If markets open lower, we think it will trigger a MACD Sell-signal, unfortunately, since the Buy-signal was only recently established, with a subsequent rally; that rally is done. We believe it's best to use any intra-day rallies to lift exposure raise some cash--maybe even put in some shorts: If we break through market lows today, there is the likelihood of more downside in the near-term. Once we get past Wednesday's Fed announcement and Friday's Options Expirations, we can begin to think about what comes next. For the moment, the watchword is protect your portfolio. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pjhj5Ai7Yyo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #InterestRates #FederalReserve #OptionsExpiration #Markets #Money #Investing
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The Coming Economic Devastation
06/10/2022
The Coming Economic Devastation
(6/10/22) Markets took it on the chin, and stocks that flourished during the pandemic are not being punished; CPI and Inflation all point to stagflation in the economy and a need for economic cleansing with turbulence in every asset class; Texas ranks among the top three states for elder fraud, with funeral scams, telemarketers, and pigeon drops; from the "Rise & Shine Act" to our own "Stacked Waffle Act," the creative titling of proposed retirement reform legislation belies the state of retirement preparedness. Economic devastation to come from higher and higher energy prices; the hard choices lower income earners must make. SEG-1: Pandemic Stocks Get Spanked SEG-2: Dealing with Elder Fraud SEG-3: Creative Titles for Retirement Legislation SEG-4: Inflation vs Stagflation: Economic Devastation Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf6Xvysz5Lg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2584s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Stuck Ahead of CPI," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWpkksv101k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "How the Consumer is Getting Squeezed," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S82YQo2N_vA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Consumer is Getting Squeezed:" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-consumer-is-getting-squeezed InvestorProtection.org -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Stagflation #Inflation #CPI #Gasoline #ElderAbuse #RetirementLegislation #Markets #Money #investing
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How the Consumer is Getting Squeezed
06/09/2022
How the Consumer is Getting Squeezed
(6/9/22) Texas Heat may be approaching par with inflation and gasoline prices; markets shed 1% on comments from SEC Chair Gensler on dropping Payment-for-Order-Flows. Is Janet Yellen nuts: Where inflation really comes from. There is zero appreciation for consumers by government economists. How to make Wall St. a "fairer" place; follow the money. Consumers are running out of means to pay as inflation rages. Target, Amazon, & WalMart are economic "canary in the coal mine." Calculating Core CPI. SEG-1: Texas Heat, Gasoline Prices, and Nowhere Markets SEG-2: What's Up w Janet Yellen? SEG-3: Why Payment-for-Order-Flow Isn't Going Away SEG-4: The Consumer is Getting Squeezed Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S82YQo2N_vA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Stuck Ahead of CPI," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWpkksv101k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "The Problem w Joe Biden's $3.5-T Tax Plan," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcP5a4MJyls&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1239s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Consumer is Getting Squeezed:" -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #Gasoline #JanetYellen #Free_Trades #Robinhood #Citadel #ConsumerSpending #Markets #Money #investing
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Markets Stuck Ahead of Friday's CPI Report | 3:00 on Markets & Money
06/09/2022
Markets Stuck Ahead of Friday's CPI Report | 3:00 on Markets & Money
(6/9/22) Markets are essentially stuck ahead of Friday's CPI report. Wednesday's market party was spoiled by SEC Chairman Gensler pontificating on the end of Payment for Order Flow and creating more of a market auction type atmosphere--a move that would dramatically affect how Wall Street makes its money. The news pushed markets 1% lower by the close, which remained in a tight trading range, for a ninth straight day. The subsequent consolidation process is eating up the buy-signal octane, shrinking the gap between support and resistance. A breakout to the upside would allow markets to shoot towards the 200-MDA, but a break-out lower would re-test lows established last month. A hotter inflation number, and a more hawkish Fed next week would certainly add downward pressure to the market. Volatility, however, remains rather muted. When volatility increases, meaning the stock market is declining, the resulting sell-off would test those recent lows, a potential risk not to be ignored. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWpkksv101k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #HawkishFed #SEG #OrderFlow #AuctionMarket #Robinhood #Markets #Money #Investing
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The Problem with Joe Biden's $3.5-T Tax Plan
06/08/2022
The Problem with Joe Biden's $3.5-T Tax Plan
(6/8/22) The problem with Joe Biden's $3.5-T tax plan; why Janet Yellen is always wrong: Transitory vs Permanent Inflation; Markets Rally after negative open; wash, rinse, repeat; what Joe Biden's wet blanket tax plans mean for investors; how to help American's save more; electricity rates and the pay-off for solar panels; current tax credits are for things most people cannot afford (Tesla's & Solar Panels); why not tax incentives for saving? Consumer Credit on the rise; Target's Results & Excess Inventory; Slowing Economy, rising rates, and Fed tightening; Velveeta Nails; What's going on sale? SEG-1: Transitory vs Permanent Inflation: Yellen is Always Wrong SEG-2: Why Biden's Tax Hike Plan is a Wet Blanket on the Economy SEG-3: How to Solve America's Savings Dearth SEG-4: Target's Results & Consequences of Inflation Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: What to Do When Markets Are Stuck in a Trading Range," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtJsfFrB_Kg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "The Rise & Fall of Free Trades," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoCUauUPkVQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JoeBiden #TaxHikes #Inflation #JanetYellen #SavingsRate #TaxIncentives #Markets #Money #investing
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What to Do When Markets Are Stuck in a Trading Range| 3:00 on Markets & Money
06/08/2022
What to Do When Markets Are Stuck in a Trading Range| 3:00 on Markets & Money
(6/8/22) Markets have not gone much of anywhere over the past seven days; markets opened lower Tuesday, coming off support established last Monday, and closed up almost 1%, back towards the top of the trading range we've been in for the past week. The challenge is how to make some traction as the markets address three problems: Markets have rallied to the top of a trading range, which is at the same level as April & May bottoms; the current buy-signal is getting over-bought, and beginning to narrow; and as the 50DMA comes down to the top of the trading range, it creates another level of resistance; as markets continue to move sideways, more and more downward pressure is being applied. This is why we have been suggesting raising some cash--and we followed our own advice yesterday, building a short-market hedge if markets start to break to the downside, setting up a re-test of the lows of early May. With more and more economic indicators pointing to a slowing economy, and the Fed beginning to tighten monetary policy, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about market stability. But, if markets DO move to the upside, it's a simple thing to remove those hedges and put our cash back to work. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtJsfFrB_Kg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketConsolidation #MarketHedge #Markets #Money #Investing
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