Mutiny Investing Podcast

This podcast is an open-ended exploration of topics relating to growing and preserving your wealth including investing, markets, decision making under opacity, risk, volatility, and complexity.

57. Sequencing Risk: Why The Expected Value Is Not What You Should Expect | Cockroach Strategy (Part 2) 06/26/2024

57. Sequencing Risk: Why The Expected Value Is Not What You Should Expect | Cockroach Strategy (Part 2) In this second episode of the Cockroach Series, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) delve into the intricacies of and its profound impact on portfolio construction. They explore concepts like expected value, ergodicity, and the importance of return order on investment outcomes. Whether you're planning for retirement or just starting your investment journey, this discussion offers valuable insights on how to navigate and mitigate the unpredictability of financial markets. Please see our for blog posts featuring notes from the . Additionally, you can access the and download your own copy of the whitepaper! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/31880162

56. Is the Stock Market Really as Predictable as You Think? Decoding the Cockroach Strategy (Part 1) 05/10/2024

56. Is the Stock Market Really as Predictable as You Think? Decoding the Cockroach Strategy (Part 1) In this episode, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) embark on the first of a series discussing the . They are excited to share insights into the decade-long development of this strategy. Jason and Taylor explore the probabilities of loss over extended time horizons, shedding light on often overlooked aspects of investment planning. They also discuss real returns and the influence of global economic trends on investment outcomes. The discussion kicks off with an exploration of stocks, the cornerstone of the Cockroach Strategy, setting the stage for a deeper dive into its principles and construction. Please see our for blog posts featuring notes from the . Additionally, you can access the and download your own copy of the whitepaper! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/31213217

55. Mutiny Funds - The Defense Strategy 10/13/2023

55. Mutiny Funds - The Defense Strategy We are excited to introduce a new addition to our suite of investment strategies - . It combines Mutiny Fund’s Volatility Strategy and Commodity Trend Strategy. The is designed to act as a so-called ‘black swan’ investment, achieving asymmetric gains in times of high volatility or tail risk (e.g. March 2020). The is designed to profit during inflationary periods (e.g. 2022) as well as during extended ‘crisis periods’ for stocks and bonds (e.g. 2008). In combining these two exposures, the Defense Strategy seeks to achieve flat to slightly positive returns during positive periods for stock and bond portfolios while providing its most significant returns in periods of equity market drawdowns or high inflation. The Defense Strategy is part of the holistic and is intended as a diversifier to be combined with offensive assets in an investor’s portfolio such as stocks, bonds, and private equity. In this podcast, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) talk through how and why we developed the Defense Strategy and the role we believe it can serve in investors’ portfolios. /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/28306739

54. Kris Abdelmessih - Alpha is Illusive 08/29/2023

54. Kris Abdelmessih - Alpha is Illusive In this episode, I talk with , Volatility Trader and also the Author of . Kris has been actively involved in options trading for 21 years. His background encompasses commencing his journey within the trading pits alongside SIG, establishing his personal market-making team, and overseeing the commodities book for a distinguished volatility manager. We talk about: Adverse Selection Discretionary Edge? Manager Fee Alpha Confidence Intervals Life Optionality and more! This podcast was recorded at the Edgewood Resort, situated by the serene Lake Tahoe, where a wonderful private event was organized by . is a curated community investors and entrepreneurs eager for in-person experiences, authentic connections, and idea sharing. I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Kris as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/27865533

53. Robert Mullin - Upstream Downstream 07/27/2023

53. Robert Mullin - Upstream Downstream In this episode, I talk with Robert Mullin from . Robert is a finance professional with 25+ years of experience managing natural resource investment portfolios for individuals, family offices and institutions. We talk about: State of commodity producers Tangential investing ideas Problems in Europe Yield farming and more! This podcast was recorded at the stunning Edgewood Resort, situated by the serene Lake Tahoe, where a wonderful private event was organized by . is a curated community investors and entrepreneurs eager for in-person experiences, authentic connections, and idea sharing. I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Robert as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/27570858

52. PJ Pierre & Zed Francis - Are any banks solvent? 06/27/2023

52. PJ Pierre & Zed Francis - Are any banks solvent? In this episode, I have the privilege of engaging in a captivating conversation with two distinguished guests. First, we have PJ Pierre, the Vice President of Trading and Portfolio Management at Denali Asset Management. Joining us alongside PJ is Zed Francis, the esteemed co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Convexitas. Topics: Are any banks solvent? Insure all deposits? Start a bank? Debt Ceiling Trades? Jubilee, reset, revolt...choose wisely and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with PJ & Zed as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/27243867

Global EQD ’23 Breakdown with Jeff Malec (part 2) 06/16/2023

Global EQD ’23 Breakdown with Jeff Malec (part 2) Didn’t get the chance to head to Vegas for the Global EQD conference. No worries. We’ve got you covered in Part II of the Global EQD ’23 Breakdown. We're teaming up with RCM Managing Partner and host of The Derivative Podcast, Jeff Malec. Together, Jeff and Jason walk through their notes from attending the annual equity derivatives-focused conference put on by the good folks at EQD. Make sure to head over to www.eqderivatives.com and signup for their official notes. Meanwhile, they go deep on many topics, from accessing commodity markets and traders in China, addressing liquidity concerns on execution desks, and exploring the nuances between variable annuities and index-linked annuity products. Jason and Jeff delve into alternative correlated hedges with cheaper volatility, examine volatility strategies in ETFs, and analyze the role of leverage in finance. Jason also shares his hot takes on various topics, including the allure of Las Vegas to the fascinating world of greenflation and energy, where wind farms and Dr. Copper play a significant role. No EQD stone is left unturned — SEND IT! P.S. Head to Jeff's Derivative Podcast to catch up on part I of the Global EQD ’23 Breakdown. https://www.rcmalternatives.com/2023/06/global-eqd-23-breakdown-with-jason-buck-part-1/ /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/27145521

51. Jared Dillian - Fintwit Bastards 04/28/2023

51. Jared Dillian - Fintwit Bastards In this episode I talk with writer, author, DJ, and speaker, . Jared's include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture and music. His include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries (2024). In his spare time, Jared is a progressive house and speaks frequently on mental health issues at financial institutions. We talk about: Bet on Winners USD F.I.R.E. Play the Tuba! Cargo Shorts and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Jared as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/26670954

50. Dr. David Rhoiney - Strategy That Fits 04/14/2023

50. Dr. David Rhoiney - Strategy That Fits In this episode I talk with a Robotic Surgeon, Cryptologist, Cyber security specialist and the list continues! We talk about: Unconscious Greatness Strategy That Fits HENRYs Banks/RIA for the People Bad Food Takes and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/26518158

49. Tobias Carlisle - What is Money? 03/28/2023

49. Tobias Carlisle - What is Money? In this episode I talk with Tobias Carlisle, founder and managing director of . He serves as portfolio manager of the firm's deep value strategy. Tobias is the creator of . He is also the author of the books (2017), (2016), (2014), and (2012). Tobias has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. We discuss: SVB What is Money? Invincible Businesses History as a Guide Behavior is Water Ergodicity in all Things and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Tobias as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/26327112

48. Zed Francis - Will credit markets be tight or illiquid in 2023? 02/13/2023

48. Zed Francis - Will credit markets be tight or illiquid in 2023? In this episode I talk with Zed Francis, CIO & Co-Founder at . Zed is responsible for strategy design, implementation, risk management and business development. In his 15-year career in investment management, Zed has taken on leadership roles that have informed the delivery of consistent and transparent multi- asset solutions as a discretionary fiduciary acting on behalf of institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals. He was most recently a portfolio manager and derivative overlay manager at SpiderRock Advisors. Previous engagements include portfolio management at institutional investment manager Legal & General Investment Management America and trading head at long/short distressed hedge fund Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners. We discuss: Will credit markets be tight or illiquid in 2023? Was Q4 Tax Loss Harvesting and RMDs? Do FOMC and CPI matter? What happened to Gilts? (Now do Japan) Illiquidity-> Correlation-> Volatility I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Zed as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/25880313

47. Tom Morgan - The Morgan Dialectic- STS Model 11/29/2022

47. Tom Morgan - The Morgan Dialectic- STS Model In this episode I talk with , Director of Communications & Content at . Tom spent the last 16 years on Wall Street working in the distribution of research for firms like Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Consumer Edge, and Stifel. Tom is someone who inquisitively consumes content across a huge array of disciplines and extracts actionable insights for busy people. For most of the past decade, Tom wrote a weekly summary titled “The Best Bits,” which had a wide following in investment and non-investment circles. We discuss: The Morgan Dialectic- STS Model Left Brain vs. Right Brain Cooperation vs Self Interest The Way of the Taoist I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Tom as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/25129479

46. The Meb Faber Show – Carry, Convexity & The Cockroach 10/26/2022

46. The Meb Faber Show – Carry, Convexity & The Cockroach We've got a special edition podcast this week! A little while back, Jason sat down with his friend to talk about all things investing. For those who didn't get a chance to listen to it, we thought we'd do a swapcast version so that way you could hear Meb and Jason discuss all things related to broadly diversified portfolios, different investing philosophies, and different investing vehicles that an entrepreneur could put together for clients. I hope you enjoy this conversation with Meb! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/24792789

45. Robert Mullin: Commodities with Carry and Convexity 10/12/2022

45. Robert Mullin: Commodities with Carry and Convexity In this episode I talk with Robert Mullin, general partner and portfolio manager at Marathon Resource Advisors manages investment strategies focused on income generating natural resource equities in the energy, mining, agriculture and renewables space. We talk about: CapEx Perfect Storm ESG is New OPEC Fake vs. Real Economy Hedging Cyclical Risk in a Secular Bull I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Robert as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/24638847

44. Travis Kimmel: Competing Time Horizons of Money 09/28/2022

44. Travis Kimmel: Competing Time Horizons of Money In this episode I talk with Travis Kimmel. Our topics include: Operator Use Liberal Arts Intellectual Dojo of Twitter SAAS Treasuries Why Do We Have Bonds? And more! This is the link to Travis' favorite book on management we discussed: Travis' best book he has read in finance: I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Travis as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/24501324

43. Bill Brewster: Road Trips and Scuttlebutt 09/14/2022

43. Bill Brewster: Road Trips and Scuttlebutt In this episode I talk with Bill Brewster from . Bill is a private investor who tries to replicate Warren Buffett’s and Charlie Munger’s thought processes, but he is also influenced by Bill Miller III, Stan Druckenmiller, and others. podcast is his attempt to dig deeper into other investing and business philosophies — and share that knowledge with the world. We talk about: Road Trips give Political Sentiments DCFs vs Monte Carlos MailBox Money The Business of Podcasting Elusive Buffett and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Bill as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/24347841

42. Sean Wieland: Tax Free Business Exit 08/30/2022

42. Sean Wieland: Tax Free Business Exit In this episode I talk with Sean Wieland, Founding Principal at . We talk about: Deferred Sales Trusts for business exit Pre and Post sale of your business Premium financing life insurance Captive Insurance 401-H and more! to compare any highly appreciated asset sale (exiting a business, commercial real estate / 1031 rescue, cryptocurrency, fine art, etc.) I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Sean as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/24162912

41. Drew Knowles: Yellowstone is Global Macro Trading 08/17/2022

41. Drew Knowles: Yellowstone is Global Macro Trading In this episode I talk with Drew Knowles, managing member of XIT is long-term oriented family investment vehicle including real assets such as ranchlands, horses and cattle operations, venture capital, private equity, and hedge funds. We talk about: Never Ask a Cattleman Size of Herd, Hay shortages, Levels of ranching certifications, Carbon Sequestration, Global Macro-End of the World Vol Trade and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Drew as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/24035244

40. Wayne Himelsein: 2022 - Year of Unusual Volatility? 08/09/2022

40. Wayne Himelsein: 2022 - Year of Unusual Volatility? In this episode I talk with Wayne Himelsein, CIO of Wayne is responsible for leading portfolio management and the overall implementation of the firm’s investment strategies. Beginning his career as a Proprietary Trader in 1995, and launching his first Hedge Fund in 2000, Wayne has over 25 years of industry experience. We talk about the following: Is time real? What is signal vs noise? Where to find great quotes? 2022- Year of unusual volatility? Existential risks to hedge funds. I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Wayne as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23966604

39. Noel Smith & Darrin Johnson: How to Turn Pro as a Trader 07/27/2022

39. Noel Smith & Darrin Johnson: How to Turn Pro as a Trader In this episode I talk with Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & Founder at Convex Asset Management as well as Volatility trader, Darrin Johnson. We talk about How to Turn Pro as a Trader, How to Join a Prop Shop, How to Run a Prop Shop, The Business Side of Running a Trading Business, How to Build Relationships from Scratch and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Noel and Darrin as much as I did! /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23859900

38. Evolution, Complexity, and the Remaking of Economics 07/19/2022

38. Evolution, Complexity, and the Remaking of Economics We have a special podcast for you today. We're getting the Mutiny team together. Taylor and I are doing a podcast together for the first time in a long time. We discuss Complexity Economics, Sugarscapes, Adaptive Walks vs Random Jumps, Bullwhip Effects, Spherical Cow Problem and more! Links mentioned in this show: I hope you enjoy this conversation with Taylor as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23753537

37. Max Arb 07/12/2022

37. Max Arb In this episode, I talk with Max Arb - . Max is anonymous on Twitter and is a doctor that has built, sold, and still runs several successful medical practices. We talk about generational wealth transfer of businesses, how to manage investment allocations, Via Negativa, balance sheet vs. income statement, and cognitive biases. I hope you enjoy this conversation with Max as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23707151

36. Devin Anderson 06/29/2022

36. Devin Anderson In this episode, I talk with Devin Anderson, CEO and co-founder of . Devin is an investment manager dedicated to delivering high performance derivative overlays for families and institutions. He is responsible for firm governance, compliance, business development, and technology. Devin and I talk about Google AI bot sentience, syntax vs. semantics, Turing test, AI-Pascal's wager, sell side research into option flows, Man+Machine in Vol trading and much more! Links mentioned in this show: I hope you enjoy this conversation with Devin as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23553032

35. Eric Crittenden 06/21/2022

35. Eric Crittenden In this episode, I talk with Eric Crittenden, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Standpoint, an investment firm focused on bringing all-weather portfolio solutions to US investors. Eric plays an active role in the firms’ research, portfolio management, product innovation, business strategy, environments and client facing activities. He believes using an all-wealth approach is the most effective way to prepare for a wide rage of market environments, while producing meaningful investment returns with limited downside risk. Eric has over 20 years experience researching, designing, and managing alternative asset portfolios on behalf of families, individuals, financial advisors, and other institution investors. Eric and I talk about circuitous paths with multi-year dead-end rabbit holes, simplicity can be the ultimate sophistication, what do clients want? What's wrong with the investing industry, strategy scaling? For people who want to understand the capital efficiency argument, this is helpful: Portfolio 1 = a blend of the more popular managed futures strategies Portfolio 2 = 100% Portfolio 1 + 50% global equities. Equities come at the expense of T-bills Portfolio 3 = standpoint Towards the end, Eric was referencing a bond video. Here’s the link: I hope you enjoy this conversation with Eric as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23449736

34. Darrin Johnson 06/14/2022

34. Darrin Johnson In this episode, I talk with Volatility trader, Darrin Johnson. Darrin and I talk about all the things that traders never discuss. The dual role of being an independent trader and a family man and if balance is possible. What it's like to have your trader P&L also be your families balance sheet and what to do when you need a vacation. I hope you enjoy this conversation with as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23309372

What happens in Vegas…. Gets Dished on this Pod. Overheard at a Derivatives Conference, Part 2 06/09/2022

What happens in Vegas…. Gets Dished on this Pod. Overheard at a Derivatives Conference, Part 2 Welcome to part two of the special edition podcast, What Happens in Vegas, where RCM's Jeff Malec and I discuss the EQ Derivatives conference that we recently attended at the Las Vegas Wynn Hotel. I highly recommend you go over to the and check out part one of our discussion. I also recommend you check out . It's a tremendous source for volatility options and all forms of derivatives trading. I hope you enjoy this conversation with Jeff as much as I did… /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23363492

33. Corey Hoffstein 05/31/2022

33. Corey Hoffstein In this episode, I talk with Corey Hoffstein, co-founder of and Chief Investment Officer at . Newfound Research LLC is a quantitative investment and research firm dedicated to helping investors pro-actively navigate the risks of investing through thought leadership and investment acumen. At Newfound, Corey is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. Corey holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science, cum laude, from Cornell University. I hope you enjoy this conversation with as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23234324

32. PJ Pierre 05/16/2022

32. PJ Pierre In this episode, I talk with PJ Pierre from Denali Asset Management. PJ and I talk about MMT as taught to him by Warren Mosler. Being an autodidact trader. How banks create money. The different forms of money as credit historically. What is the Haitian dollar. I hope you enjoy this conversation with PJ as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23099510

31. Zed Francis 05/09/2022

31. Zed Francis In this episode, I talk with Zed Francis, co-founder and CIO of Convexitas. Convexitas is a fiduciary that works with families and institutions to maintain balance and flexibility. Convexitas is more than a manager or a product – they provide tools that bring balance to your allocation process. When you know Convexitas will provide liquidity during times of distress, you are free to make better allocation decisions and avoid becoming a forced seller. Liquidity enables proactive opportunity capture without the fear of inopportune liquidations to service capital calls, charitable obligations, or financing lifestyle. Zed and I talk about the current rhetoric that is still focused on buying the dip. We talk about his recent essay The Storm Provides, what happens when you have end of day rebalancing creating vol smashes. His thoughts on: housing market, inflation affecting correlations, and cash efficient portfolios. I hope you enjoy this conversation with Zed as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/23026073

30. Kris Sidial 05/02/2022

30. Kris Sidial In this episode, I talk with Kris Sidial, Co-CIO at The Ambrus Group. The Ambrus Group is a volatility arbitrage focused firm that was founded in 2020. The firm takes pride in having a math-driven ethos that specializes in leveraging an in-depth knowledge of volatility skew. Ambrus applies a discretionary twist to quantitative volatility strategies with the purpose of protecting investors from tail risk events in the U.S equity markets. Kris and I talk about "buy the dip" dynamics to markets. Can a hedged market crash? The no ego style of managing a Hedge Fund. Opportunities for retail investors in areas that institutions will not touch. How did he trade the VXX dislocation. I hope you enjoy this conversation with Kris as much as I did... /episode/index/show/mutiny/id/22939457

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