Nomura – The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

The Week Ahead – Open For Business 11/14/2025

The Week Ahead – Open For Business The news of the week is confirmation of the end of the US government shutdown. In the US, we examine the coming dataflow as the government reopens and the outlook for Fed funds. Across Europe and Japan, there will be no shortage of data to look at next week. We discuss the inflation report in the UK, growth and inflation in Japan, and the Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Chapters: 01:27, Europe: 07:22, Japan: 12:45, Asia: 17:12. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/39033570

The Week Ahead – Bubbles Bursting? 11/07/2025

The Week Ahead – Bubbles Bursting? With equity markets and tech stocks wobbling, we welcome guest speaker, Charlie McElligott, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Nomura, to discuss what is driving equity markets and what to watch in terms of “bubble risk”. In the week ahead, politics is still front and center in the US. We discuss the impact of the ongoing shutdown and tariffs. In Europe, we explain how we are viewing the next steps in the UK following the Bank of England’s decision, and look briefly at Scandinavian divergence. In Asia, we explore how the region’s trade deals with the US are evolving. Chapters: Markets Special: 01:56, US: 17:06, Europe: 23:36, Asia: 29:51. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38949380

The Week Ahead – Fed Trick or Tariff Treat 10/31/2025

The Week Ahead – Fed Trick or Tariff Treat On the one hand, President Trump’s trip to Asia resulted in some trade deals including with China, broadly in line with expectations but nonetheless were welcome news for markets. On the other hand, the hawkish twist by the Fed was a surprise, which led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a rise in Treasury yields. We explain why we no longer expect a cut by the Fed in December but still see three rate cuts next year. We also discuss the US-China trade truce and the impact on China’s growth outlook, and why we forecast a non-consensus Bank of England cut. Chapters: 02:23, China: 09:18, Asia: 14:01, Europe: 21:02. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38858700

The Week Ahead – Locked and Loaded 10/24/2025

The Week Ahead – Locked and Loaded With the US government shutdown continuing, we’ve had only limited US data to look at over recent weeks, but that has only increased the focus on geopolitics. This week our focus will be very much on central banks, as we track four of the major central banks which are set to announce rate decisions next week. In the US, a 25bp rate cut from the Fed seems locked and loaded. We also discuss the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank policy meetings. Chapters: US: 02:16, Europe: 09:05, Japan: 14:14, Asia: 19:05. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38767325

The Week Ahead – Raw Deal on Rare Earths 10/17/2025

The Week Ahead – Raw Deal on Rare Earths US-China trade tensions have returned to the spotlight, and we discuss the economic impact from both perspectives as markets await the news on whether we will see further escalation or a softening in tone. In Europe, the UK remains in focus ahead of two significant event risks coming into view, with the Bank of England meeting on 6 November and the budget on 30 November. Yujiro Goto, Head of Japan FX Strategy, outlines the latest political developments in Japan, the market impact and the paths ahead. Chapters: Japan: 02:34, China: 08:58, Europe: 15:30, US: 21:50. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38617185

The Week Ahead – More Political Shockwaves 10/10/2025

The Week Ahead – More Political Shockwaves Politics continue to take centre stage, with the shocking LDP election result in Japan and the resignation of the French Prime Minister after less than 4 weeks in office. The EUR has weakened as a result, while USD/JPY has surged. We discuss the main policy features of ‘Sanaenomics’, the implications for the BOJ, and what to expect from the political developments in France. Our guest speaker, Samira Fazili, Managing Director, US Public Policy & Government Affairs, shares her take on how and when the US government shutdown could end. Chapters: US: 02:12, Japan 13:57, Asia: 20:06, Europe: 21:43. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38537010

The Week Ahead – Shutdown! 10/03/2025

The Week Ahead – Shutdown! For financial markets and economists, the main near-term challenge of the US government shutdown is a lack of data. The longer the shutdown rumbles on, the larger the potential negative economic consequences. In Europe, we are moving firmly into budget season, putting fiscal policies at the top of the agenda. In Asia, it is all about central bank meetings, with the Philippines, Thailand and New Zealand all set for rate cuts in the week ahead. Chapters: US: 02:13, Europe: 08:06, Asia: 13:34. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38453315

The Week Ahead – Course Correction? 09/26/2025

The Week Ahead – Course Correction? In previous weeks, the Fed’s easing expectations appear to have been driving all markets, sending equities higher, credit spreads tighter, and the USD and US yields lower. However, better US data this week have resulted in some rate cut expectations to unwind. Markets will be in for another big test next week, with the US Payrolls report and the significant risk of a US government shutdown. We preview China’s PMI data, the Reserve Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meetings, and activity data in Japan. Chapters: US: 01:49, China: 06:50, India: 10:39, Japan: 13:58, Australia: 15:35. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38366900

The Week Ahead – Connecting The Dots 09/19/2025

The Week Ahead – Connecting The Dots Following the Fed’s decision to cut by 25bp, we discuss why we now expect substantially more rate cuts in 2025-26, and the impact of the appointment of a new Fed chair in coming months. In Europe, we preview the on-hold decisions we expect from both Swiss National Bank and Riksbank next week. In Asia, we put a spotlight on Indonesia. In this episode, we also speak with Yusuke Miyairi, our G10 FX strategist, who explains why he sees USD/JPY lower in the near-term, amid the latest political developments in Japan. Chapters: US: 01:59, Europe: 10:23, Asia: 15:51, Japan: 17:24. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38276715

The Week Ahead – Three From Seven 09/12/2025

The Week Ahead – Three From Seven We are tracking seven central bank meetings next week, and expect rate cuts from three. The Fed policy meeting next week is in full focus, against a highly unusual backdrop. This week we discuss an expected rate cut in the US and Canada. Across Europe, we forecast a rate cut in Norway, but not in the UK. Meanwhile in in Asia, we examine China activity data, the Bank of Japan and the latest political developments, and preview central bank meetings in Indonesia and Taiwan next week. Darren Shames, Head of Global Rates Sales, joins us as a guest speaker to give an update on the latest trends driving Global Markets. Chapters: US: 01:42, Markets Special: 07:14, Europe: 13:13, Japan: 17:23, Asia: 21:32. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38191835

The Week Ahead – Politics Takes Centre Stage 09/05/2025

The Week Ahead – Politics Takes Centre Stage With the August labour market having been released in the US, we provide a reaction on the data, alongside next week’s CPI and potential political pressures which could influence the Fed. In Europe, we focus on the French confidence vote and the ECB meeting on Thursday. In Asia, we talk politics in Japan and ASEAN, and how this may impact central bank policy in the months ahead. Chapters: US: 01:56, Europe: 08:45, ASEAN: 14:54, Japan: 22:29. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38103480

The Week Ahead – Hiring and Firing 08/29/2025

The Week Ahead – Hiring and Firing It’s another big week ahead with all eyes on the US jobs report and on-going headlines regarding the firing of Fed Governor Cook. In Europe, we discuss upcoming inflation data, some central bank divergence, and the potential fallout from the vote of confidence in France. In Asia, the focus is on China’s growth outlook and Beijing’s likely policy strategy amid a strong rally in equity markets. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the next leg of easing by Asian central banks and market implications, with Sonal Varma, Chief Economist for India & Asia ex Japan, and Albert Leung, Asia Rates Strategist. Chapters: (US: 01:53, EMEA: 08:08, China: 12:19, Asia Central Banks Special: 17:25). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38019135

The Week Ahead – Beyond Jackson Hole 08/22/2025

The Week Ahead – Beyond Jackson Hole We discuss Fed Chair Powell’s long-awaited speech at the annual central bank gathering in Jackson Hole. In Europe, our focus is on the ECB and European inflation trends, and we touch on the Russia-Ukraine war and economic implications. Then across Asia, we examine key coming data in China and Japan, and central bank meetings in Korea and the Philippines. Featuring a special segment, we welcome Jonathan Cohn, Head of US Rates Desk Strategy, to discuss key trends in Global Markets. Chapters: (US: 01:46, Global Markets Special: 08:10, EMEA: 15:30, Asia: 18:46). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37923495

The Week Ahead – Fed Ahead 08/15/2025

The Week Ahead – Fed Ahead This week, we explain the change in our Fed call following the latest inflation data, as well as the latest views on China, and the UK. We have brought forward our call for the next Fed cut to September, following slightly dovish inflation details for July. China remains mired in low inflation and soft growth; we discuss what the rest of H2 has in store. In Europe, we look at the latest and upcoming UK data following a hawkish BoE decision, and preview the Riksbank meeting. Chapters: (US: 01:55, China: 08:20, Europe: 16:20). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37833975

The Week Ahead – Dual Mandate Pressure 08/08/2025

The Week Ahead – Dual Mandate Pressure In the week ahead, all eyes will be on US CPI data which is likely to tick up. We preview the key data releases from the UK and Europe, as well as the Norges Bank decision coming up. We discuss the contrasting outcomes that we expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Thailand. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the US Dollar and why keeping a soft medium-term dollar view makes sense. Chapters: (US: 01:36, EMEA: 08:18, Asia: 14:57, FX Special Segment: 21:18). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37728660

The Week Ahead – Is Trump Winning? 08/01/2025

The Week Ahead – Is Trump Winning? Following the 15% tariff announced for Europe, further tariff rate announcements for India and South Korea have followed. For global markets, our focus remains on tariff announcements, key macro data and central banks. In this episode, we discuss these developments, as well as the Bank of England policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. In Asia, the focus is on a policy meeting in India, inflation and key earnings data in Japan. Chapters: (US: 01:41, EMEA: 07:34, Asia: 12:49). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37634565

The Week Ahead – I’m Kind of a Big Deal… 07/25/2025

The Week Ahead – I’m Kind of a Big Deal… Following a number of trade deals announced in the last week, financial markets seem to be taking the news in a positive manner with equity markets continuing to edge higher and bond yields remaining in fairly narrow ranges. However, one bond market that has stood out is Germany where yields have jumped following hawkish ECB commentary after their July rate meeting, which we discuss in this episode alongside the potential EU-US trade deal. We also discuss the US implications of trade deals, preview the FOMC decision and US labour market data, both of which are due next week. In Asia, we focus on trade developments in India and ASEAN, the Japan upper house election, and the US-Japan trade deal. Chapters: US: 01:54, EMEA: 10:29, Asia: 15:05, Japan: 22:13. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37545080

The Week Ahead – Signs of Tarifflation 07/18/2025

The Week Ahead – Signs of Tarifflation This week's key themes include US inflation and the Fed, the ECB decision and EU tariffs, and China's growth outlook. We discuss how tariffs are starting to impact US inflation data, preview the ECB decision and how the 30% tariff threats on the EU could affect that outcome, as well as share views on Japan's upper house election and whether a weak growth outlook China could prompt policy response. Chapters: (US: 01:50, Europe: 11:05, China: 15:40, Japan: 22:10) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37446980

The Week Ahead – Trump, Tariffs and the Fed 07/11/2025

The Week Ahead – Trump, Tariffs and the Fed Key global market themes remain centred around US tariff announcements, possible trade deals, and the Fed. This week we saw President Trump announce higher tariff rates on a number of countries. We discuss these developments, what comes next, and key data and events to look out for over the coming week, as well as UK debt metrics and the outlook for China and Indonesia. Chapters: (US: 01:40, Europe: 07:40, Asia: 12:05). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37370505

The Week Ahead – Independence Trade 07/04/2025

The Week Ahead – Independence Trade The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea’s likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Chapters: (US: 02:14, Asia: 08:53, Australia & New Zealand: 13:53, EMEA: 16:33). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37282630

The Week Ahead - Some Semblance of Calm 06/27/2025

The Week Ahead - Some Semblance of Calm Tensions in the Middle East have eased but we enter the month of July with other flashpoints to watch. In the US, all eyes on labor market data, the Fed, and prospects of passing the One Big Beautiful bill. CPI data across Europe and the ECB forum in Sintra are on tap, while Germany approved a big budget. In Asia, we expect still-benign inflation and discuss trade deal prospects and our change in RBA forecast. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (08:58), Asia (14:35). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37176585

The Week Ahead – Tensions Rising 06/20/2025

The Week Ahead – Tensions Rising Market dynamics in the last week have been dominated by developments in the Middle East, where the ongoing military action between Israel and Iran continues to have a notable impact on investor risk sentiment and oil prices. In the US and Europe, we dissect a week of central bank decisions, including the Fed and the Bank of England. In Asia we look at how trade is evolving and discuss local political developments in Thailand. Chapters: US (01:42), Europe (10:59), Asia (16:01). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37089360

The Week Ahead – Deal or No Deal? 06/13/2025

The Week Ahead – Deal or No Deal? Ongoing trade deal developments remain the largest driver of global markets right now. Our focus next week will be on the G7 Summit in Canada, to see if there are any further trade developments. We look ahead to central bank meetings in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan, as well as fresh ECB communication and policy meetings across the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Chapters: US (01:48), China (07:39), Europe (11:31), Japan (14:31), Rest of Asia (18:22), Australia & New Zealand (21:37). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36997320

The Week Ahead – Live from NIFA 2025 06/06/2025

The Week Ahead – Live from NIFA 2025 In this episode, we discuss our high conviction views and the second half outlook presented at our flagship Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) which recently took place in Singapore. Key themes at the conference were centered around US trade and fiscal policy, tensions with China, geopolitical risks, and de-dollarization. We also discuss how the rest of the world, as well as market participants, are navigating this highly uncertain global environment. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36887360

The Week Ahead – Sell America? 05/30/2025

The Week Ahead – Sell America? There has been a few surprises this week highlighting the unpredictable and unconventional nature of US policy making. For the week ahead, our focus will be on the May Payrolls report in the US and the Bank of Canada policy decision. In Europe, we take a look at the impact of tariffs and geopolitics from a European perspective, and also discuss the policy meeting in India, earnings data in Japan and broad inflation trends across Asia. Chapters: Europe (01:55), US (06:05), Asia (11:05). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36785355

The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful 05/23/2025

The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful It has been another big week in markets. We discuss US fiscal developments and how the Fed might respond as well as preview US inflation data. In focus for the week ahead is also central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, alongside India’s growth outlook. In Europe, we discuss recent signs of softening of inflation and why the ECB still has room to cut rates. Chapters: US (01:50), Australia & New Zealand (07:31), India (10:33), Asia (17:19), Europe (18:03). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36687645

The Week Ahead – De-Escalation 05/16/2025

The Week Ahead – De-Escalation This week started with a bang after the sharp de-escalation of US and China tensions, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs in the next 90 days. We discuss the near-term economic implications, as well as the prospects of reaching a more lasting trade deal. We also preview upcoming UK CPI and European survey data and whether trade talks with Europe can also make progress. We end with a special segment on FX markets to discuss why sticking to a medium-term soft USD view makes sense and which currencies could outperform in this environment. Chapters: US (02:06), China (07:35), Asia (12:31), Europe (13:46), FX Special Segment (18:14). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36590605

The Week Ahead – Highly Uncertain 05/09/2025

The Week Ahead – Highly Uncertain In the week to date, the major themes remain around tariffs, policy and uncertainty, and what central banks will make of it all. Weaker growth but higher inflation could leave central banks in a tricky spot. In the week ahead, our focus in the US will be on April retail sales and CPI, and the latest tariff developments. In Europe, we recap the central bank meetings over the past week and look ahead to UK labour market and GDP data. Then we turn to Japan to consider Q1 growth, as well as tariff and trade negotiations. Chapters: US (01:47), Europe (09:54), Japan (13:19), Asia (16:12). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36506360

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Stay The Course 05/02/2025

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Stay The Course The focus this week turns to central banks. We discuss the Fed staying on-hold amid likely more pressures from Trump, and the uncertain outlook for US tax policy which is becoming a top legislative priority. We also discuss our expectations for the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Riksbank which could have diverging decisions but some risk of a dovish tone, as well as Beijing’s latest stance on de-escalation and stimulus prospects. All eyes will be on the data to gauge how much of the tariffs are already starting to have an impact, on how these central banks factor in the uncertainty, and on any progress on the trade talks where things also remain influx. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (10:58), China (14:42), Asia (20:00). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36408515

The Week Ahead – Bouncing Back 04/25/2025

The Week Ahead – Bouncing Back As trade tensions show signs of softening and financial markets stabilise, we discuss the recent changes to our central bank views for both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, and outline our thinking on recent US-Japan trade negotiations. In this episode, we also preview the upcoming US labour market data and discuss what the election in Canada may mean for the economy and markets. Chapters: Europe (02:19), Japan (05:53), Asia (11:02), US (12:23). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36307040

Nomura – The Week Ahead

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