Nomura – The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

The Week Ahead – Uneasy 04/17/2025

The Week Ahead – Uneasy We have seen some calm return this week, which has coincided with President Trump making some tariff concessions for tech companies and for auto parts, suggesting that a 'Trump put' is in play, and with the President also signalling “big progress” in talks with Japanese officials. However, we have to say this is an uneasy calm; new sectoral tariffs are still likely coming and tensions with China remain elevated. We discuss the latest tariff twists and turns, fresh communication from Fed Chair Powell and upcoming US data, as well as the ECB’s recent 25bp rate cut. Across Asia, we will look out for Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting, Korea export data and Tokyo CPI. Chapters: US (02:16), Europe (08:47), Asia (13:13). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36207100

The Week Ahead - Something’s Gotta Give 04/11/2025

The Week Ahead - Something’s Gotta Give Global financial markets remain on edge after a rebound from the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China. In this episode, we discuss the path forward for negotiations with US trade partners. We also discuss Europe’s changing stance to negotiate rather than retaliate, and the ECB looking set to cut again next week. In Asia, we outline the posture from Beijing, with the Q1 GDP data also on tap. We end with a special segment with Rob Subbaraman, Head of Global Macro Research, who offers his perspectives on major global questions, including how damaging the ‘tariff shock’ could be on global growth, and possible reasons behind the on-going decline in US asset prices. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (07:30), China (12:25), Rest of Asia (17:48), Tariffs (19:16). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36096210

The Week Ahead - Tariff Turmoil 04/04/2025

The Week Ahead - Tariff Turmoil It’s been another tumultuous week in financial markets following President Trump’s tariff announcements on 2nd April. Tariffs were broad and generally larger than expected and financial markets did not digest them all that well, although some resilience in US labour market data appears to be curbing some of the downside for now. In this episode, we will go into the detail of what trade policy is being implemented and what it means for various economies. Chapters: US (01:27), Europe (09:00), Asia (14:01), Australia and New Zealand (20:15). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36005630

The Week Ahead - Tariff Time 03/28/2025

The Week Ahead - Tariff Time In the week to date, US bond yields are a little higher across the curve, and the USD has been a little stronger too, while equities really have had a couple of up and down days. Another big theme for global markets has been around the idea of US exceptionalism, that took a dent as some US data printed weaker, Europe data looked better, and as China and Europe announced some stimulus plans over prior weeks. For the week ahead, it really is crunch time with April 2 tariff announcements just around the corner. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (10:47), Asia (13:59). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35903015

The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm 03/21/2025

The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm Financial markets have been difficult to navigate, with equity markets bouncing from their recent lows but still seeing sizable intraday swings. Interest rates seem to be similarly caught between potential upside inflation risks from some sources, and challenging growth dynamics on the other. And all of this comes ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcements from the US which also have the potential to jolt markets further. In Europe, we look for further signs that German’s fiscal reform is feeding into stronger growth expectations, while the UK’s fiscal room looks more constrained. In Asia, we discuss likely policy responses in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (11:05), Asia (15:31). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35804520

The Week Ahead – Grappling With Uncertainty 03/14/2025

The Week Ahead – Grappling With Uncertainty Market participants continue to grapple with a very high degree of uncertainty which is starting to have real economic consequences. The week ahead should be very interesting with key central bank decisions, and we could get some guidance on how policymakers think about and deal with the uncertainty, particularly from rising global trade tensions. We share our expectations for an on-hold decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and for the Fed’s tone to continue to emphasize patience. We also expect a pause from the BOE’s cutting cycle. Lastly, we discuss why communication is a bigger focus this time from the BOJ’s meeting where a skip in the hiking cycle is widely expected. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (10:39), Japan (16:43), Asia (21:22). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35684090

The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing 03/07/2025

The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing Markets have seen sizable moves as the US administration ramped up tariffs and Germany announced a huge fiscal package. (02:30) With US tariffs hitting last week, we discuss what is actually in place, what is likely to come and the impact on the US, China and Europe. (15:15) Germany’s fiscal stimulus is having a major market impact and should meaningfully raise growth, inflation and ECB expectations. (20:15) We also preview next week’s inflation data out of the US and China. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35570635

The Week Ahead – China To The Rescue? 02/28/2025

The Week Ahead – China To The Rescue? It’s a big week for China with all eyes on the National People’s Congress (NPC), where fiscal measures could be announced. We outline our expectations and whether the NPC could potentially provide a lift in market sentiment. In the US, we preview the February employment report and its impact on Fed policy, and digest the latest announcements on tariffs. In Europe, we discuss our expectations of the ECB, where we go from here after the German elections and what is Europe’s next move around the peace deal. Chapters: US (02:10), Europe (07:40), Asia (15:45). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35479065

The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now 02/21/2025

The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now Market sentiment seems to be holding in pretty well as this week comes to a close. Equity markets are generally holding up at healthy levels, credit spreads remain pretty tight, and commodity currencies, which are often seen as global growth sensitive and risk barometers, are holding up at higher levels. This week in the US, our focus will be on core PCE inflation and any new Trump or tariff developments. In Europe, we’ll be watching the German election fallout, along with the latest inflation readings. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Korea and Thailand, and China PMI data ahead. Chapters: US (02:16), Europe (06:46), Asia (11:31). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35375725

The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance? 02/14/2025

The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance? Early signs of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal are boosting market optimism, with EUR/USD trading up towards its highest level since late-January and European equities continuing to surge. We discuss what this might mean for the euro area outlook. This positivity is, however, still being partially offset by the ongoing threat of US tariffs and by sticky inflation data in the US. We also preview next week’s central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. Chapters: Europe (02:02), Asia (07:32), US (11:38). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35282700

The Week Ahead – Not Tariffic 02/07/2025

The Week Ahead – Not Tariffic This past week began with the news that Mexico and Canada had secured a temporary reprieve from US tariffs. However, we see higher tariffs as highly likely. This week also brought us stronger-than-expected earnings data in Japan. Looking ahead, in the US our focus will be on any further tariff news, the January CPI and Fed-speak. In Europe, we’ll be watching out for the latest activity readings, and ECB and BOE speakers, as well as a central bank meeting in the Philippines. Chapters: US (01:49), Europe (06:22), Asia (10:31). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35188545

The Week Ahead – Snaky Ways 01/31/2025

The Week Ahead – Snaky Ways It’s been another big week, with the news on DeepSeek rattling global equity markets, led by the tech sector. The Fed’s on-hold decision came and went as expected, however we have made an important change to our Fed forecasts. Coming up, the US employment report will be key to watch, alongside hints on whether tariffs will soon be implemented. Elsewhere, we have the BOE decision where a cut is widely expected, while activity data in Europe could again remain weak. In Asia, the spotlight is on India with a likely pivotal central bank decision on tap, just a few days after the government’s FY26 budget was unveiled. Chapters: US (02:12), Europe (08:02), Asia (12:21). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35095595

The Week Ahead – One Week In 01/24/2025

The Week Ahead – One Week In We are only a few days into President Trump’s new term, but already there has been a lot of action. Over 25 executive orders have been signed, and we discuss what these might mean for the macro economic outlook. In Europe, we look at the likely 25bp cut by the ECB, signs of short-term positivity in the region and the possible response to Trump’s policies. Finally, we focus on how the latest developments impact China and what policy response, if any, is on its way. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (07:31), Asia (10:32). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34991445

The Week Ahead – Inauguration Sensation 01/17/2025

The Week Ahead – Inauguration Sensation We’ve had a very busy start to the year and the excitement is likely to continue with the focus on Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday 20th January. In this episode, we outline what policy announcements to expect in the early part of Trump’s second term, and how Asian economies may respond. In Europe we will be digging into recent UK market volatility and prospects for the labour market. And last but certainly not least, we preview the Bank of Japan decision, where we expect a 25bp hike. Chapters: Markets (01:08) US (02:11), Asia (09:31), Europe (12:56), Japan (18:04). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34892600

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies 01/10/2025

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies The week ahead promises to be another eventful one, with key CPI data in the US and the UK. We also have tier-1 data in China and a couple of central bank decisions in Asia. Recent comments from President-elect Trump particularly on tariffs, could provide some hints of what’s to come as we approach his inauguration. We will close with a special segment focusing on the outlook for Asian currencies, which have been facing significant pressures recently and are therefore in the spotlight. Chapters: US (01:35), Europe (07:11), Asia (11:18), Asia FX (18:37). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34799785

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year? 01/03/2025

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year? This year could be all about Trump, tariffs, and potentially turbulence. In this episode, we discuss our recently published annual outlooks and shine a spotlight on the key data and events over the coming week. In the US, our focus will be on the services ISM and payrolls reports. In Europe, CPI and final December PMI data will be released. Then it's the latest from Asia, with Japan earnings, China loan data, and CPI reports from across the region. Chapters: US (03:46), Europe (09:10), Asia (14:05). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34708055

The Week Ahead – Going Out with a Bang 12/13/2024

The Week Ahead – Going Out with a Bang Year end is approaching fast, but we still have key central bank meetings and data to look out for next week. In the US, our focus will be on the Fed policy decision, and the latest core inflation and activity readings. In Europe, the Bank of England meets, and key labour market and inflation data will be released. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with the Bank of Japan and four other central banks across the region set to make policy announcements. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (06:20), China (10:10), Japan (15:30), Rest of Asia (17:04) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34421755

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Take Center Stage 12/06/2024

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Take Center Stage Starting next week we have monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. These along with a few key data releases set the tone for the week after which is promising to be a blockbuster week, when we have the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, plus a few central banks in Asia all on deck. We also have a special segment in this episode where we focus on the 2025 outlook for Asia. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (08:04), Asia (13:26), Asia 2025 Outlook (14:43) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34313960

The Week Ahead - Give Thanks For 11/29/2024

The Week Ahead - Give Thanks For Trump’s tariff announcements have started to move markets. We discuss how to interpret the latest US political developments and provide a preview of this week’s all important labour market data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is set to meet and may offer some dovish guidance. While in Europe, we preview the PMIs and Swiss inflation data. Chapters: US (02:18), Asia (10:08), Europe (16:14). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34200625

The Week Ahead - Back Towards Normal? 11/22/2024

The Week Ahead - Back Towards Normal? Inflation and policy rates are returning towards normal in many countries. This week our focus turns back towards normal market drivers. We discuss core inflation in the US and the latest set of Fed meeting minutes. Across Europe, we have a number of central bank speakers, key inflation and growth readings to watch out for, as well as Tokyo inflation, China PMIs and central bank meetings in Korea and New Zealand. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (05:22), Korea (08:22), Rest of Asia (10:37). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34104996

The Week Ahead - Global Aftershocks 11/15/2024

The Week Ahead - Global Aftershocks In last week’s podcast we focused on the US and China following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections. This week we continue to discuss the implications of Trump 2.0 on other parts of the globe. Also on deck next week are US housing starts data, CPI prints in the UK and Japan, as well as Bank Indonesia likely again pausing amid external aftershocks from the US election. Chapters: US (02:03), Europe (07:54), Japan (12:31), Asia (17:53) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33942267

The Week Ahead – Trump 2.0 11/08/2024

The Week Ahead – Trump 2.0 Following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections, we outline the new policy outlook and what we think it means for the global economy and markets. We also discuss the National People’s Congress in China, with the policy decisions there likely to shape investors’ perceptions of both the outlook in China but also the broader impact on risk sentiment and global growth dynamics. Chapters: US (02:30), Asia (11:04), Europe (14:36) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33846627

Week Ahead – Crunch Time 11/01/2024

Week Ahead – Crunch Time It’s been a busy past week with European Q3 GDP data and an expansionary UK budget, which led to a rise in European and UK bond yields. We also saw China PMI data print a tiny bit better and a pretty solid Q3 GDP growth report in the US. Over the coming week, it’s crunch time in the US with the election finally upon us. We discuss how markets may react as the results start to roll in next week. We also have at least five central bank meetings to look out for, and with an expected 25bp rate cut in the US. Chapters: US (02:42), Europe (07:22), China (11:14), Rest of Asia (15:09) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33727132

The Week Ahead - Buckle Up 10/25/2024

The Week Ahead - Buckle Up This week we witnessed some pretty material moves in markets. There was a rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada and the theme of growth exceptionalism in the US, combined with communication from various Fed officials, has led the market to continue to unwind some of its prior aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. As we look ahead to the coming week, things are going to really heat up with US Payrolls and inflation data, European GDP, the UK budget, China PMI, and inflation reports in Indonesia and Australia. And of course, the US election race is coming down to the wire. Chapters: US (02:14), Europe (07:57), China (10:33), Rest of Asia (15:51) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33610887

The Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, UK Public Sector Borrowing and Tokyo CPI 10/18/2024

The Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, UK Public Sector Borrowing and Tokyo CPI In this episode, we discuss the upcoming US elections, and how US economic sentiment has been holding up in the second half of the year. In Europe, the focus next week will be on flash PMIs, especially after the ECB noted that they have seen downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Could UK public sector borrowing numbers change the game for the UK budget? In Asia, the focus is on Japan where we have crucial inflation data for October. Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (08:11), Asia (10:24) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33511477

The Week Ahead - More or Less? 10/11/2024

The Week Ahead - More or Less? Central banks remain very much in focus over the coming week, with policy meetings in Europe and across Asia. We’re expecting rate cuts from two of those and the theme of divergence, based on local dynamics, seems very much in play. Some central banks look set to deliver more easing than perhaps would have been expected only a month ago, but some a little less. Aside from the central banks, we’ll need to watch out for fiscal policy news from China, as well as ongoing developments in the Middle East. Chapters: US (02:13), Europe (06:17), Asia (09:26), China (12:56) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33417137

The Week Ahead – The Rate Cut Cycle Is Heating Up 10/04/2024

The Week Ahead – The Rate Cut Cycle Is Heating Up What we have seen so far this week is markets buoyed by recent announcements regarding China policy stimulus but then troubled by developments in the middle east. Coming up, we expect rate cuts in India, Korea and New Zealand next week, and from the ECB soon after. We are recording this podcast ahead of US Payrolls data which has become an increasingly critical release for markets. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (07:54), Asia (10:54) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33326927

The Week Ahead: US NFP, Euro Area Inflation and China PMIs 09/27/2024

The Week Ahead: US NFP, Euro Area Inflation and China PMIs As we celebrate our 200th episode, we have a big week coming up in the US with the labour market report. In Europe, the most important data next week is euro area flash inflation, and we discuss whether inflation data may edge the ECB closer to an October rate cut. In Asia, the focus is on China's PMIs and Japanese industrial production. Chapters: US (01:20), Europe (05:55), Asia (10:27) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33230632

Flash PMIs, SNB, Riksbank and RBA Rate Decisions 09/20/2024

Flash PMIs, SNB, Riksbank and RBA Rate Decisions It’s been a busy week in the US, the Fed surprised many Economists by kicking off its cutting cycle with a 50bp cut. Is it a speedy descent for US rates from here? Also coming up this week, Europe is at the center of the action with several important data releases - we have flash PMIs, Spanish and French inflation and central bank meetings in Sweden and Switzerland. Then, it’s the latest from Asia with Australia’s RBA decision, Tokyo CPI and BOJ minutes. Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (04:30), Asia (08:53) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33136052

Enter the Fed 09/13/2024

Enter the Fed Coming up this week, in the US we expect the Fed to commence its easing campaign, with a 25bp move. Across Europe, the focus will be on the Bank of England policy meeting. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan. Chapters: US (01:15), Europe (05:18), Asia (07:54) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33038742

Nomura – The Week Ahead

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