Nomura – The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

The Week Ahead – Three From Seven 09/12/2025

The Week Ahead – Three From Seven We are tracking seven central bank meetings next week, and expect rate cuts from three. The Fed policy meeting next week is in full focus, against a highly unusual backdrop. This week we discuss an expected rate cut in the US and Canada. Across Europe, we forecast a rate cut in Norway, but not in the UK. Meanwhile in in Asia, we examine China activity data, the Bank of Japan and the latest political developments, and preview central bank meetings in Indonesia and Taiwan next week. Darren Shames, Head of Global Rates Sales, joins us as a guest speaker to give an update on the latest trends driving Global Markets. Chapters: US: 01:42, Markets Special: 07:14, Europe: 13:13, Japan: 17:23, Asia: 21:32. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38191835

The Week Ahead – Politics Takes Centre Stage 09/05/2025

The Week Ahead – Politics Takes Centre Stage With the August labour market having been released in the US, we provide a reaction on the data, alongside next week’s CPI and potential political pressures which could influence the Fed. In Europe, we focus on the French confidence vote and the ECB meeting on Thursday. In Asia, we talk politics in Japan and ASEAN, and how this may impact central bank policy in the months ahead. Chapters: US: 01:56, Europe: 08:45, ASEAN: 14:54, Japan: 22:29. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38103480

The Week Ahead – Hiring and Firing 08/29/2025

The Week Ahead – Hiring and Firing It’s another big week ahead with all eyes on the US jobs report and on-going headlines regarding the firing of Fed Governor Cook. In Europe, we discuss upcoming inflation data, some central bank divergence, and the potential fallout from the vote of confidence in France. In Asia, the focus is on China’s growth outlook and Beijing’s likely policy strategy amid a strong rally in equity markets. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the next leg of easing by Asian central banks and market implications, with Sonal Varma, Chief Economist for India & Asia ex Japan, and Albert Leung, Asia Rates Strategist. Chapters: (US: 01:53, EMEA: 08:08, China: 12:19, Asia Central Banks Special: 17:25). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/38019135

The Week Ahead – Beyond Jackson Hole 08/22/2025

The Week Ahead – Beyond Jackson Hole We discuss Fed Chair Powell’s long-awaited speech at the annual central bank gathering in Jackson Hole. In Europe, our focus is on the ECB and European inflation trends, and we touch on the Russia-Ukraine war and economic implications. Then across Asia, we examine key coming data in China and Japan, and central bank meetings in Korea and the Philippines. Featuring a special segment, we welcome Jonathan Cohn, Head of US Rates Desk Strategy, to discuss key trends in Global Markets. Chapters: (US: 01:46, Global Markets Special: 08:10, EMEA: 15:30, Asia: 18:46). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37923495

The Week Ahead – Fed Ahead 08/15/2025

The Week Ahead – Fed Ahead This week, we explain the change in our Fed call following the latest inflation data, as well as the latest views on China, and the UK. We have brought forward our call for the next Fed cut to September, following slightly dovish inflation details for July. China remains mired in low inflation and soft growth; we discuss what the rest of H2 has in store. In Europe, we look at the latest and upcoming UK data following a hawkish BoE decision, and preview the Riksbank meeting. Chapters: (US: 01:55, China: 08:20, Europe: 16:20). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37833975

The Week Ahead – Dual Mandate Pressure 08/08/2025

The Week Ahead – Dual Mandate Pressure In the week ahead, all eyes will be on US CPI data which is likely to tick up. We preview the key data releases from the UK and Europe, as well as the Norges Bank decision coming up. We discuss the contrasting outcomes that we expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Thailand. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the US Dollar and why keeping a soft medium-term dollar view makes sense. Chapters: (US: 01:36, EMEA: 08:18, Asia: 14:57, FX Special Segment: 21:18). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37728660

The Week Ahead – Is Trump Winning? 08/01/2025

The Week Ahead – Is Trump Winning? Following the 15% tariff announced for Europe, further tariff rate announcements for India and South Korea have followed. For global markets, our focus remains on tariff announcements, key macro data and central banks. In this episode, we discuss these developments, as well as the Bank of England policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. In Asia, the focus is on a policy meeting in India, inflation and key earnings data in Japan. Chapters: (US: 01:41, EMEA: 07:34, Asia: 12:49). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37634565

The Week Ahead – I’m Kind of a Big Deal… 07/25/2025

The Week Ahead – I’m Kind of a Big Deal… Following a number of trade deals announced in the last week, financial markets seem to be taking the news in a positive manner with equity markets continuing to edge higher and bond yields remaining in fairly narrow ranges. However, one bond market that has stood out is Germany where yields have jumped following hawkish ECB commentary after their July rate meeting, which we discuss in this episode alongside the potential EU-US trade deal. We also discuss the US implications of trade deals, preview the FOMC decision and US labour market data, both of which are due next week. In Asia, we focus on trade developments in India and ASEAN, the Japan upper house election, and the US-Japan trade deal. Chapters: US: 01:54, EMEA: 10:29, Asia: 15:05, Japan: 22:13. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37545080

The Week Ahead – Signs of Tarifflation 07/18/2025

The Week Ahead – Signs of Tarifflation This week's key themes include US inflation and the Fed, the ECB decision and EU tariffs, and China's growth outlook. We discuss how tariffs are starting to impact US inflation data, preview the ECB decision and how the 30% tariff threats on the EU could affect that outcome, as well as share views on Japan's upper house election and whether a weak growth outlook China could prompt policy response. Chapters: (US: 01:50, Europe: 11:05, China: 15:40, Japan: 22:10) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37446980

The Week Ahead – Trump, Tariffs and the Fed 07/11/2025

The Week Ahead – Trump, Tariffs and the Fed Key global market themes remain centred around US tariff announcements, possible trade deals, and the Fed. This week we saw President Trump announce higher tariff rates on a number of countries. We discuss these developments, what comes next, and key data and events to look out for over the coming week, as well as UK debt metrics and the outlook for China and Indonesia. Chapters: (US: 01:40, Europe: 07:40, Asia: 12:05). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37370505

The Week Ahead – Independence Trade 07/04/2025

The Week Ahead – Independence Trade The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea’s likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Chapters: (US: 02:14, Asia: 08:53, Australia & New Zealand: 13:53, EMEA: 16:33). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37282630

The Week Ahead - Some Semblance of Calm 06/27/2025

The Week Ahead - Some Semblance of Calm Tensions in the Middle East have eased but we enter the month of July with other flashpoints to watch. In the US, all eyes on labor market data, the Fed, and prospects of passing the One Big Beautiful bill. CPI data across Europe and the ECB forum in Sintra are on tap, while Germany approved a big budget. In Asia, we expect still-benign inflation and discuss trade deal prospects and our change in RBA forecast. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (08:58), Asia (14:35). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37176585

The Week Ahead – Tensions Rising 06/20/2025

The Week Ahead – Tensions Rising Market dynamics in the last week have been dominated by developments in the Middle East, where the ongoing military action between Israel and Iran continues to have a notable impact on investor risk sentiment and oil prices. In the US and Europe, we dissect a week of central bank decisions, including the Fed and the Bank of England. In Asia we look at how trade is evolving and discuss local political developments in Thailand. Chapters: US (01:42), Europe (10:59), Asia (16:01). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/37089360

The Week Ahead – Deal or No Deal? 06/13/2025

The Week Ahead – Deal or No Deal? Ongoing trade deal developments remain the largest driver of global markets right now. Our focus next week will be on the G7 Summit in Canada, to see if there are any further trade developments. We look ahead to central bank meetings in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan, as well as fresh ECB communication and policy meetings across the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Chapters: US (01:48), China (07:39), Europe (11:31), Japan (14:31), Rest of Asia (18:22), Australia & New Zealand (21:37). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36997320

The Week Ahead – Live from NIFA 2025 06/06/2025

The Week Ahead – Live from NIFA 2025 In this episode, we discuss our high conviction views and the second half outlook presented at our flagship Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) which recently took place in Singapore. Key themes at the conference were centered around US trade and fiscal policy, tensions with China, geopolitical risks, and de-dollarization. We also discuss how the rest of the world, as well as market participants, are navigating this highly uncertain global environment. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36887360

The Week Ahead – Sell America? 05/30/2025

The Week Ahead – Sell America? There has been a few surprises this week highlighting the unpredictable and unconventional nature of US policy making. For the week ahead, our focus will be on the May Payrolls report in the US and the Bank of Canada policy decision. In Europe, we take a look at the impact of tariffs and geopolitics from a European perspective, and also discuss the policy meeting in India, earnings data in Japan and broad inflation trends across Asia. Chapters: Europe (01:55), US (06:05), Asia (11:05). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36785355

The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful 05/23/2025

The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful It has been another big week in markets. We discuss US fiscal developments and how the Fed might respond as well as preview US inflation data. In focus for the week ahead is also central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, alongside India’s growth outlook. In Europe, we discuss recent signs of softening of inflation and why the ECB still has room to cut rates. Chapters: US (01:50), Australia & New Zealand (07:31), India (10:33), Asia (17:19), Europe (18:03). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36687645

The Week Ahead – De-Escalation 05/16/2025

The Week Ahead – De-Escalation This week started with a bang after the sharp de-escalation of US and China tensions, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs in the next 90 days. We discuss the near-term economic implications, as well as the prospects of reaching a more lasting trade deal. We also preview upcoming UK CPI and European survey data and whether trade talks with Europe can also make progress. We end with a special segment on FX markets to discuss why sticking to a medium-term soft USD view makes sense and which currencies could outperform in this environment. Chapters: US (02:06), China (07:35), Asia (12:31), Europe (13:46), FX Special Segment (18:14). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36590605

The Week Ahead – Highly Uncertain 05/09/2025

The Week Ahead – Highly Uncertain In the week to date, the major themes remain around tariffs, policy and uncertainty, and what central banks will make of it all. Weaker growth but higher inflation could leave central banks in a tricky spot. In the week ahead, our focus in the US will be on April retail sales and CPI, and the latest tariff developments. In Europe, we recap the central bank meetings over the past week and look ahead to UK labour market and GDP data. Then we turn to Japan to consider Q1 growth, as well as tariff and trade negotiations. Chapters: US (01:47), Europe (09:54), Japan (13:19), Asia (16:12). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36506360

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Stay The Course 05/02/2025

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Stay The Course The focus this week turns to central banks. We discuss the Fed staying on-hold amid likely more pressures from Trump, and the uncertain outlook for US tax policy which is becoming a top legislative priority. We also discuss our expectations for the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Riksbank which could have diverging decisions but some risk of a dovish tone, as well as Beijing’s latest stance on de-escalation and stimulus prospects. All eyes will be on the data to gauge how much of the tariffs are already starting to have an impact, on how these central banks factor in the uncertainty, and on any progress on the trade talks where things also remain influx. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (10:58), China (14:42), Asia (20:00). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36408515

The Week Ahead – Bouncing Back 04/25/2025

The Week Ahead – Bouncing Back As trade tensions show signs of softening and financial markets stabilise, we discuss the recent changes to our central bank views for both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, and outline our thinking on recent US-Japan trade negotiations. In this episode, we also preview the upcoming US labour market data and discuss what the election in Canada may mean for the economy and markets. Chapters: Europe (02:19), Japan (05:53), Asia (11:02), US (12:23). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36307040

The Week Ahead – Uneasy 04/17/2025

The Week Ahead – Uneasy We have seen some calm return this week, which has coincided with President Trump making some tariff concessions for tech companies and for auto parts, suggesting that a 'Trump put' is in play, and with the President also signalling “big progress” in talks with Japanese officials. However, we have to say this is an uneasy calm; new sectoral tariffs are still likely coming and tensions with China remain elevated. We discuss the latest tariff twists and turns, fresh communication from Fed Chair Powell and upcoming US data, as well as the ECB’s recent 25bp rate cut. Across Asia, we will look out for Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting, Korea export data and Tokyo CPI. Chapters: US (02:16), Europe (08:47), Asia (13:13). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36207100

The Week Ahead - Something’s Gotta Give 04/11/2025

The Week Ahead - Something’s Gotta Give Global financial markets remain on edge after a rebound from the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China. In this episode, we discuss the path forward for negotiations with US trade partners. We also discuss Europe’s changing stance to negotiate rather than retaliate, and the ECB looking set to cut again next week. In Asia, we outline the posture from Beijing, with the Q1 GDP data also on tap. We end with a special segment with Rob Subbaraman, Head of Global Macro Research, who offers his perspectives on major global questions, including how damaging the ‘tariff shock’ could be on global growth, and possible reasons behind the on-going decline in US asset prices. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (07:30), China (12:25), Rest of Asia (17:48), Tariffs (19:16). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36096210

The Week Ahead - Tariff Turmoil 04/04/2025

The Week Ahead - Tariff Turmoil It’s been another tumultuous week in financial markets following President Trump’s tariff announcements on 2nd April. Tariffs were broad and generally larger than expected and financial markets did not digest them all that well, although some resilience in US labour market data appears to be curbing some of the downside for now. In this episode, we will go into the detail of what trade policy is being implemented and what it means for various economies. Chapters: US (01:27), Europe (09:00), Asia (14:01), Australia and New Zealand (20:15). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/36005630

The Week Ahead - Tariff Time 03/28/2025

The Week Ahead - Tariff Time In the week to date, US bond yields are a little higher across the curve, and the USD has been a little stronger too, while equities really have had a couple of up and down days. Another big theme for global markets has been around the idea of US exceptionalism, that took a dent as some US data printed weaker, Europe data looked better, and as China and Europe announced some stimulus plans over prior weeks. For the week ahead, it really is crunch time with April 2 tariff announcements just around the corner. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (10:47), Asia (13:59). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35903015

The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm 03/21/2025

The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm Financial markets have been difficult to navigate, with equity markets bouncing from their recent lows but still seeing sizable intraday swings. Interest rates seem to be similarly caught between potential upside inflation risks from some sources, and challenging growth dynamics on the other. And all of this comes ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcements from the US which also have the potential to jolt markets further. In Europe, we look for further signs that German’s fiscal reform is feeding into stronger growth expectations, while the UK’s fiscal room looks more constrained. In Asia, we discuss likely policy responses in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (11:05), Asia (15:31). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35804520

The Week Ahead – Grappling With Uncertainty 03/14/2025

The Week Ahead – Grappling With Uncertainty Market participants continue to grapple with a very high degree of uncertainty which is starting to have real economic consequences. The week ahead should be very interesting with key central bank decisions, and we could get some guidance on how policymakers think about and deal with the uncertainty, particularly from rising global trade tensions. We share our expectations for an on-hold decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and for the Fed’s tone to continue to emphasize patience. We also expect a pause from the BOE’s cutting cycle. Lastly, we discuss why communication is a bigger focus this time from the BOJ’s meeting where a skip in the hiking cycle is widely expected. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (10:39), Japan (16:43), Asia (21:22). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35684090

The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing 03/07/2025

The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing Markets have seen sizable moves as the US administration ramped up tariffs and Germany announced a huge fiscal package. (02:30) With US tariffs hitting last week, we discuss what is actually in place, what is likely to come and the impact on the US, China and Europe. (15:15) Germany’s fiscal stimulus is having a major market impact and should meaningfully raise growth, inflation and ECB expectations. (20:15) We also preview next week’s inflation data out of the US and China. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35570635

The Week Ahead – China To The Rescue? 02/28/2025

The Week Ahead – China To The Rescue? It’s a big week for China with all eyes on the National People’s Congress (NPC), where fiscal measures could be announced. We outline our expectations and whether the NPC could potentially provide a lift in market sentiment. In the US, we preview the February employment report and its impact on Fed policy, and digest the latest announcements on tariffs. In Europe, we discuss our expectations of the ECB, where we go from here after the German elections and what is Europe’s next move around the peace deal. Chapters: US (02:10), Europe (07:40), Asia (15:45). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35479065

The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now 02/21/2025

The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now Market sentiment seems to be holding in pretty well as this week comes to a close. Equity markets are generally holding up at healthy levels, credit spreads remain pretty tight, and commodity currencies, which are often seen as global growth sensitive and risk barometers, are holding up at higher levels. This week in the US, our focus will be on core PCE inflation and any new Trump or tariff developments. In Europe, we’ll be watching the German election fallout, along with the latest inflation readings. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Korea and Thailand, and China PMI data ahead. Chapters: US (02:16), Europe (06:46), Asia (11:31). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/35375725

Nomura – The Week Ahead

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