Nomura – The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year? 01/03/2025

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year? This year could be all about Trump, tariffs, and potentially turbulence. In this episode, we discuss our recently published annual outlooks and shine a spotlight on the key data and events over the coming week. In the US, our focus will be on the services ISM and payrolls reports. In Europe, CPI and final December PMI data will be released. Then it's the latest from Asia, with Japan earnings, China loan data, and CPI reports from across the region. Chapters: US (03:46), Europe (09:10), Asia (14:05). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34708055

The Week Ahead – Going Out with a Bang 12/13/2024

The Week Ahead – Going Out with a Bang Year end is approaching fast, but we still have key central bank meetings and data to look out for next week. In the US, our focus will be on the Fed policy decision, and the latest core inflation and activity readings. In Europe, the Bank of England meets, and key labour market and inflation data will be released. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with the Bank of Japan and four other central banks across the region set to make policy announcements. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (06:20), China (10:10), Japan (15:30), Rest of Asia (17:04) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34421755

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Take Center Stage 12/06/2024

The Week Ahead – Central Banks Take Center Stage Starting next week we have monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. These along with a few key data releases set the tone for the week after which is promising to be a blockbuster week, when we have the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, plus a few central banks in Asia all on deck. We also have a special segment in this episode where we focus on the 2025 outlook for Asia. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (08:04), Asia (13:26), Asia 2025 Outlook (14:43) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34313960

The Week Ahead - Give Thanks For 11/29/2024

The Week Ahead - Give Thanks For Trump’s tariff announcements have started to move markets. We discuss how to interpret the latest US political developments and provide a preview of this week’s all important labour market data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is set to meet and may offer some dovish guidance. While in Europe, we preview the PMIs and Swiss inflation data. Chapters: US (02:18), Asia (10:08), Europe (16:14). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34200625

The Week Ahead - Back Towards Normal? 11/22/2024

The Week Ahead - Back Towards Normal? Inflation and policy rates are returning towards normal in many countries. This week our focus turns back towards normal market drivers. We discuss core inflation in the US and the latest set of Fed meeting minutes. Across Europe, we have a number of central bank speakers, key inflation and growth readings to watch out for, as well as Tokyo inflation, China PMIs and central bank meetings in Korea and New Zealand. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (05:22), Korea (08:22), Rest of Asia (10:37). /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/34104996

The Week Ahead - Global Aftershocks 11/15/2024

The Week Ahead - Global Aftershocks In last week’s podcast we focused on the US and China following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections. This week we continue to discuss the implications of Trump 2.0 on other parts of the globe. Also on deck next week are US housing starts data, CPI prints in the UK and Japan, as well as Bank Indonesia likely again pausing amid external aftershocks from the US election. Chapters: US (02:03), Europe (07:54), Japan (12:31), Asia (17:53) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33942267

The Week Ahead – Trump 2.0 11/08/2024

The Week Ahead – Trump 2.0 Following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections, we outline the new policy outlook and what we think it means for the global economy and markets. We also discuss the National People’s Congress in China, with the policy decisions there likely to shape investors’ perceptions of both the outlook in China but also the broader impact on risk sentiment and global growth dynamics. Chapters: US (02:30), Asia (11:04), Europe (14:36) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33846627

Week Ahead – Crunch Time 11/01/2024

Week Ahead – Crunch Time It’s been a busy past week with European Q3 GDP data and an expansionary UK budget, which led to a rise in European and UK bond yields. We also saw China PMI data print a tiny bit better and a pretty solid Q3 GDP growth report in the US. Over the coming week, it’s crunch time in the US with the election finally upon us. We discuss how markets may react as the results start to roll in next week. We also have at least five central bank meetings to look out for, and with an expected 25bp rate cut in the US. Chapters: US (02:42), Europe (07:22), China (11:14), Rest of Asia (15:09) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33727132

The Week Ahead - Buckle Up 10/25/2024

The Week Ahead - Buckle Up This week we witnessed some pretty material moves in markets. There was a rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada and the theme of growth exceptionalism in the US, combined with communication from various Fed officials, has led the market to continue to unwind some of its prior aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. As we look ahead to the coming week, things are going to really heat up with US Payrolls and inflation data, European GDP, the UK budget, China PMI, and inflation reports in Indonesia and Australia. And of course, the US election race is coming down to the wire. Chapters: US (02:14), Europe (07:57), China (10:33), Rest of Asia (15:51) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33610887

The Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, UK Public Sector Borrowing and Tokyo CPI 10/18/2024

The Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, UK Public Sector Borrowing and Tokyo CPI In this episode, we discuss the upcoming US elections, and how US economic sentiment has been holding up in the second half of the year. In Europe, the focus next week will be on flash PMIs, especially after the ECB noted that they have seen downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Could UK public sector borrowing numbers change the game for the UK budget? In Asia, the focus is on Japan where we have crucial inflation data for October. Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (08:11), Asia (10:24) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33511477

The Week Ahead - More or Less? 10/11/2024

The Week Ahead - More or Less? Central banks remain very much in focus over the coming week, with policy meetings in Europe and across Asia. We’re expecting rate cuts from two of those and the theme of divergence, based on local dynamics, seems very much in play. Some central banks look set to deliver more easing than perhaps would have been expected only a month ago, but some a little less. Aside from the central banks, we’ll need to watch out for fiscal policy news from China, as well as ongoing developments in the Middle East. Chapters: US (02:13), Europe (06:17), Asia (09:26), China (12:56) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33417137

The Week Ahead – The Rate Cut Cycle Is Heating Up 10/04/2024

The Week Ahead – The Rate Cut Cycle Is Heating Up What we have seen so far this week is markets buoyed by recent announcements regarding China policy stimulus but then troubled by developments in the middle east. Coming up, we expect rate cuts in India, Korea and New Zealand next week, and from the ECB soon after. We are recording this podcast ahead of US Payrolls data which has become an increasingly critical release for markets. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (07:54), Asia (10:54) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33326927

The Week Ahead: US NFP, Euro Area Inflation and China PMIs 09/27/2024

The Week Ahead: US NFP, Euro Area Inflation and China PMIs As we celebrate our 200th episode, we have a big week coming up in the US with the labour market report. In Europe, the most important data next week is euro area flash inflation, and we discuss whether inflation data may edge the ECB closer to an October rate cut. In Asia, the focus is on China's PMIs and Japanese industrial production. Chapters: US (01:20), Europe (05:55), Asia (10:27) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33230632

Flash PMIs, SNB, Riksbank and RBA Rate Decisions 09/20/2024

Flash PMIs, SNB, Riksbank and RBA Rate Decisions It’s been a busy week in the US, the Fed surprised many Economists by kicking off its cutting cycle with a 50bp cut. Is it a speedy descent for US rates from here? Also coming up this week, Europe is at the center of the action with several important data releases - we have flash PMIs, Spanish and French inflation and central bank meetings in Sweden and Switzerland. Then, it’s the latest from Asia with Australia’s RBA decision, Tokyo CPI and BOJ minutes. Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (04:30), Asia (08:53) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33136052

Enter the Fed 09/13/2024

Enter the Fed Coming up this week, in the US we expect the Fed to commence its easing campaign, with a 25bp move. Across Europe, the focus will be on the Bank of England policy meeting. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan. Chapters: US (01:15), Europe (05:18), Asia (07:54) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/33038742

Post Payrolls 09/06/2024

Post Payrolls It’s been another interesting week in global markets with equities and commodity prices having another serious wobble, and bond yields declining, surprising many. This week we consider the latest US election polling numbers and what a Trump presidency might mean for economies and markets. We also look towards the coming ECB meeting, which should be a key highlight of the week ahead, along with China data. We are recording this ahead of critical US Payrolls data, which could well determine whether the Fed delivers a 25 or 50bp rate cut later this month. Chapters: US (01:47), Europe (07:11), Asia (09:41) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32940632

US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI 08/23/2024

US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Euro area and US inflation data should tee up central banks for more cutting in September. Chapters: US (02:40), Europe (06:36), Asia (11:29) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32710772

Some Do, Some Don’t, Some Will, Some Won’t 08/16/2024

Some Do, Some Don’t, Some Will, Some Won’t Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host & Australia Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and Charnon Boonnuch, Asia Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. New Zealand and the Philippines join the rate cut pack, while the Fed remains on track to deliver a first 25bp rate cut in September. Chapters: US (02:22), Europe (08:45), Asia (11:49) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32604457

US CPI, UK GDP and CPI and Norges Bank Meeting 08/09/2024

US CPI, UK GDP and CPI and Norges Bank Meeting Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, and Dominic Bunning, Head of G10 FX Strategy, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Market uncertainty is rife. Key data from the US and UK may set the record straight. Chapters: Week Ahead Key Themes with Dominic Bunning (01:12), US (05:11), Europe (09:38), Asia (13:41) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32511057

Divergence 08/02/2024

Divergence Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. The central bank divide widens, with a second rate hike in Japan, and a first cut in the UK. Chapters: US (02:29), Europe (11:12), Asia (14:57) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32396722

Powell Probably Won’t Excite, But Bailey Might 07/26/2024

Powell Probably Won’t Excite, But Bailey Might Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist, and Yusuke Miyairi, FX Strategist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. It's one of the busiest weeks on the podcast with the FOMC, BoE, BOJ, nonfarm payroll and top-tier data out of the Euro area. Chapters: US (02:20), Europe (07:53), Asia (12:00) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32303112

A Staggered Start 07/19/2024

A Staggered Start Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist, and Jeong Woo Park, Asia Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. The easing cycle has commenced, but central banks are running their own race. Chapters: US (01:13), Europe (06:14), Asia (09:08) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32211567

Crunch time in Europe 07/12/2024

Crunch time in Europe Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. Europe will be in focus this week with crucial UK data and ECB rate decision due. China is also likely to face continued economic pressure. Chapters: US (01:30), Europe (04:14), Asia (9:10) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32110557

Let’s Get Political 07/05/2024

Let’s Get Political Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. Political events are moving fast in the UK, France and the US, but markets will probably move the most, as they typically do, on US CPI. Chapters: US (01:12), Europe (06:54), Asia (13:12) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/32020767

Election Time 06/28/2024

Election Time Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, and Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. The focus turns to elections over the coming week, but inflation still matters. Chapters: U.S. (01:15), Europe (05:34), Asia (10:41) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/31927667

Inflation Moderation? 06/21/2024

Inflation Moderation? Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Kohei Okazaki, Senior Japan Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Markets to seek confirmation that US inflation is moderating, with multiple Fed rate cuts now priced. /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/31835647

Decision Time in Europe and Asia 06/14/2024

Decision Time in Europe and Asia Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist and George Buckley, Chief UK and Euro Area Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets over the coming week. It’s decision time for central banks with three meetings in Europe and three in Asia, although ultimately most central banks are likely to remain on hold. Chapters: U.S. (01:14), Europe (07:06), Asia (14:09) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/31745287

The G7 Easing Cycle Begins 06/07/2024

The G7 Easing Cycle Begins Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior U.S. Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Kohei Okazaki, Senior Japan Economist as they discuss the key themes driving global markets over the coming week. After rate cuts in Canada and Europe, focus turns to the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Chapters: U.S. (01:28), Europe (05:29), Asia (10:29) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/31644422

US Labour Market Data Weaker For Longer? 05/31/2024

US Labour Market Data Weaker For Longer? Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Ruchir Sharma, US Economist and Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Markets eagerly await whether NFP will surprise to the downside for a second month and the ECB to deliver the worst-kept-secret cut. Chapters: U.S. (02:00), Europe (07:50), Asia (12:23) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/31546607

Inflation Moderation? 05/24/2024

Inflation Moderation? Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, George Moran, European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. US core PCE inflation data, out late next week, hold the key for markets. Chapters: U.S. (01:22), Europe (05:42), Asia (08:53) /episode/index/show/nomurapodcasts/id/31450912

Nomura – The Week Ahead

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