The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through a real estate lens.
A shifting economic order. Rising geopolitical risk. Capital on edge. In The Real Estate Market Watch, Dr. Adam Gower, author, academic, and commercial real estate veteran with over 40 years of experience, examines the macroeconomic signals reshaping the real estate investment landscape. This isn’t a show about deal hype or trend-chasing. It’s about what happens when confidence meets correction - and how investors and sponsors can respond with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Each episode features candid conversations with economists, multi-cycle real estate professionals, and respected market thinkers. The aim: to make sense of fast-moving events without partisan noise or clickbait headlines - only the real implications for real estate. There’s no fixed release schedule. Episodes are published in response to market conditions, not calendars. If you're trying to navigate uncertainty with a clear-eyed, capital-first approach, this podcast is for you. Newsletter: GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
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Affordability Is Now Structural, Not Cyclical
12/18/2025
Affordability Is Now Structural, Not Cyclical
Mark Zandi is one of the few economists who can do two things at once: explain what is happening in the data, and explain why households experience it so differently. He is the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, and in our conversation, the last of my podcast series this year and the second of two Holiday Specials, he connected inflation, affordability, market structure, and geopolitics in a way CRE professionals will recognize immediately. The theme was simple, but not comforting: affordability is no longer a “cycle” story - it is becoming structural. And the US economy is increasingly dependent on a relatively narrow slice of consumers continuing to spend. Zandi’s framing matters for sponsors and investors because it changes what “risk” looks like. If the top of the income distribution is carrying demand while the middle and bottom are constrained, the economy can keep moving - but it can also become unusually fragile if equity markets stumble or confidence shifts. He also made a point many people avoid saying plainly: even if AI is transformative, markets may be pricing in an adoption curve that is too fast. That is how you get corrections - not because the technology is useless, but because expectations got ahead of diffusion. Five questions we get into: Why has affordability re-emerged so forcefully in 2025 - and why does it feel like it is not going away? What does a “K-shaped economy” mean in practical terms for spending, jobs, and social stability? If the top 10% accounts for nearly half of spending, what breaks the expansion? Is today’s AI boom more like 1997 or 2000 - and what would cause a valuation reset? Why does deglobalization threaten America’s “exorbitant privilege,” and what does that mean for markets? If you are underwriting 2026 with a clean, mean-reversion narrative, you will want to hear this conversation. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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“This Time Is Different” – Yet Again
12/16/2025
“This Time Is Different” – Yet Again
Ken Rogoff does not trade in headlines or market timing. He trades in history. As Professor of Economics at Harvard and co-author of This Time Is Different, Rogoff has spent decades studying what happens when societies convince themselves old rules no longer apply. His latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, extends that lens to today’s economy – and to the quiet assumptions underpinning U.S. financial dominance. In our conversation, Rogoff unpacked why the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” still matters, why it is slowly eroding, and why the real risks facing the U.S. economy are not where most people are looking. This was not a discussion about panic. It was a discussion about probability. Among the questions Rogoff addresses: Why does dollar dominance lower borrowing costs for U.S. households and businesses – and what happens if that advantage fades? Why is the combination of high debt and higher interest rates historically dangerous, even for advanced economies? Why central bank independence matters more than most people realize – and why it is under pressure from both sides of the political spectrum. Why commercial real estate stress is serious but not systemic – and what risks matter more. Why AI could extend U.S. economic strength or trigger a sharp reversal – and why today’s low volatility is misleading. Rogoff’s core message is unsettling precisely because it is familiar. The United States has navigated debt, inflation, and institutional stress before. It did not escape unscathed. It adapted under pressure. The question is not whether adjustment comes. It is how – and under what conditions. If you care about macro risk, capital markets, or the long-term assumptions embedded in real estate and investment decisions, this conversation is worth your time. Tune in to hear it in full. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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A Family Office Playbook for Real Estate
12/16/2025
A Family Office Playbook for Real Estate
What do the most disciplined investors in real estate have in common right now? They’re not chasing themes. They’re not waiting for perfect headlines. They’re buying when pricing resets and protecting capital at all costs. That’s why my conversation with Onic Palandjian, partner at Group RMK, is worth your time. Onic helps steward a family office platform that has grown from $500 million to $2.5 billion by doing something increasingly rare in CRE: investing with patience, low leverage, and long-duration discipline. Their model is built on loss aversion, contrarian entry points, and a refusal to take operating risk without an exceptional basis. We covered a wide range of themes shaping 2026: the rise of family offices as agile allocators, the return of deep-value acquisitions, and why ground leases have become a compelling blend of yield, seniority, and inflation protection. Here are five questions we tackled: Why are family offices so well positioned for today’s distressed pricing? How do ground leases deliver seniority, inflation linkage, and zero operating exposure? What makes a low-basis acquisition fundamentally different from a thematic bet? How does discipline with leverage create multi-cycle durability? Which opportunities are emerging as zoning, refinancing pressures, and capital scarcity converge? Onic’s perspective is refreshingly unemotional: you only make money when you buy, and you only buy when the basis protects you. In an environment defined by volatility, scarcity of liquidity, and fractured sentiment, this mindset is not just conservative. It’s strategic. If you want to understand how patient capital is positioning for the next phase of the market, this episode is a strong place to start. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Tax Certainty in an Uncertain Market
12/15/2025
Tax Certainty in an Uncertain Market
In this week’s episode, I spoke with Lisa Knee, Managing Partner of Real Estate Services at EisnerAmper, one of the largest tax and advisory firms serving institutional owners, funds, developers, and family offices across the country. Lisa works with clients who “touch dirt, own dirt, work with dirt” and her view is clear: the tax landscape has stopped moving, but the real estate market hasn’t found its footing. She breaks down what the One Big Beautiful Bill actually settled (199A permanence, 100 percent bonus depreciation, renewed Opportunity Zone rules), and why none of it has thawed capital or clarified pricing. Capital is cautious, lenders prefer extend-and-amend, and investors still don’t trust projected rents, expenses, or cap rates enough to lean in. We discuss topics that matter to serious operators, including: Which tax provisions now permanently shape deal economics for partnerships, REIT investors, and developers. How Opportunity Zones 2.0 works and what the 2026 “blackout” means for capital flows. Why B and C assets are under the most pressure even as A and D properties continue to lease. Why adaptive reuse is a specialist’s game, not a market-wide solution for office. What lenders are actually doing behind the scenes and how extend-and-amend is shaping distress. If you’re underwriting deals, raising capital, or making hold-sell decisions in 2025 as we head into 2026, this conversation gives you a clear, steady framework for understanding how tax incentives, lender behavior, and pricing uncertainty are interacting right now. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Winning Big in Retail
12/09/2025
Winning Big in Retail
Jeff Rosenberg brings a multi-generation perspective to open-air, retail shopping centers, a sector most investors once wrote off. His family built and operated supermarkets and the centers around them starting in the 1940s. Big V Property Group grew out of that platform and today controls a $2.5 billion, 9 million square foot national portfolio of open-air shopping centers anchored by the likes of Target, TJX brands, Ross, HomeGoods, Sierra Trading, and others. That background matters: Big V understands how retailers actually make money, how store-level performance drives traffic, and why certain locations survive every cycle. A few insights stood out in our conversation: • Physical retail never died (online shopping, Covid etc) it evolved. Retailers now use stores as omnichannel infrastructure: showroom, warehouse, and last-mile all at once. • Power-center retail is effectively an ecosystem. A Target anchor drives demographic analysis, infrastructure improvements, credit co-tenancy, and consistent foot traffic for the rest of the center. • Supply discipline is doing the heavy lifting. Two decades of minimal development plus 96–97% occupancy make today’s retail fundamentally different from overbuilt asset classes. • Lenders are leaning back in. Big V recently rolled eight core assets, about $1.1 billion, into a single fund and closed a $765 million on-balance-sheet bank loan, the largest retail financing in the country in 2025. • Underwriting today requires humility. Big V assumes no cap-rate compression. All value has to come from NOI growth and execution, not financial engineering. Here are five questions we covered: Why did retail survive when everyone predicted structural decline? How does a Target anchor change a center’s economics? What does today’s capital stack look like for high-quality retail? How do you underwrite exits when cap-rate compression is off the table? Where are the real risks in a sector that looks “safe” on the surface? If you want a grounded view of where the next leg of the retail cycle is heading and how an operator with a decades-long track record has never lost investor capital, this conversation is worth your time. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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What RIAs Really Want From Real Estate
12/02/2025
What RIAs Really Want From Real Estate
Jeff Brown has spent the last 15 years building exactly the kind of platform most sponsors say they want and very few actually execute: niche, disciplined, and trusted by the wealth-management channel. As founder and CIO of T2 Capital Management, he’s grown a $1bn platform focused on three things: bridge lending, student housing, and B/C multifamily ‘on the banks of the Mississippi.’ Most of his capital comes from RIAs – a channel many sponsors talk about but rarely crack. In our conversation, we talked about what it really looks like when investors are bruised, liquidity is scarce, and the opportunity set is quietly improving. Here are five questions Jeff answered that matter for anyone raising or allocating equity today: What separates a real bridge lender from the “tourists” who entered the space in the last cycle? How do you underwrite B/C multifamily and workforce housing when markets are working through a supply glut from the ZIRP era? What’s actually happening inside student housing? Why have RIAs made T2 their real estate allocation? How should investors think about 401(k) access to private assets? If you’re trying to make sense of where capital will actually move in the next phase of this cycle and what it will reward, this episode is worth your time. Jeff is candid about the scars, clear about the opportunities, and refreshingly sober about what it takes to earn and keep investor trust. Tune in to the full discussion with Jeff Brown of T2 Capital Management to pressure-test your own thesis for the next leg of the market. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Retail Capital Is Rewriting CRE
11/25/2025
Retail Capital Is Rewriting CRE
My guest today, Tim Bodner, doesn’t just analyze capital markets - he helps shape them. As Partner at PwC and Global Leader of its Real Estate Deals business, Tim advises some of the world’s largest investors – pensions, sovereign wealth funds, REITs, private capital firms - on transactions exceeding $300 billion. He also is a contributor to PwC’s Global Real Estate and Real Assets Deals Outlook, giving him a uniquely panoramic view of how capital, policy, and real assets now intersect. In our conversation, Tim explains why the capital stack is being redrawn. Retail savings and annuities are moving from the periphery to the core of capital formation. Private credit, powered by insurers, is filling the vacuum left by banks. And the definition of “real estate” is expanding fast into “real assets” like data centers, senior housing, manufacturing facilities, sports or entertainment venues and infrastructure. It’s not just about what’s being built, it’s about who’s funding it, and how. Here are five questions Tim and I discuss that every serious investor or sponsor should be asking right now: 1. How will retirement-plan capital change the equity landscape for real estate? 2. What does the rise of insurer-backed private credit mean for developers and borrowers? 3. Why are institutions shifting from “real estate” to “real assets” and what falls inside that new perimeter? 4. How should sponsors navigate co-invest and direct-deal demand from pensions and sovereigns without slowing execution? 5. Is the “fog” of uncertainty finally lifting and where is capital rotating back into traditional sectors? If you want to understand where capital is truly flowing, how policy and product design are reshaping investor access, and why operating capability is emerging as the new alpha, this episode is worth your time. Listen to my full conversation with Tim Bodner of PwC, a rare, clear-eyed look at how capital formation in real assets is changing beneath the surface. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Why Small Shops Beat Big Boxes
11/18/2025
Why Small Shops Beat Big Boxes
Richard Tucker has seen every phase of retail, from enclosed malls to mixed-use, and still chooses the least glamorous corner of the sector: small-bay, necessity-driven strip centers. As CEO of Tucker Development, a 10MM square foot development company, he’s now systematizing that playbook into a Midwest portfolio with modest leverage, steady cash, and an exit designed for institutions. In a market obsessed with timing the rate cycle, this is an operator’s strategy: buy centers with proven tenancy, fix physical frictions (depth, access, service lanes), keep leverage low (60–65%), hedge rates, and let small rent steps compound at the portfolio level. It’s less about shiny anchors and more about durable local habits. Richard and I discuss: Why unanchored strips now. What is WALD and how does it drive resilience and investor returns? Best practices for taking on debt. How ‘boring’ can yield a 9% current pay. Why taxes matter and what not to look at. If you’re underwriting the next two years as an operator, not a speculator, Tucker’s checklist is a useful filter for deal flow you can own through volatility. His team spends more time on downside than upside and builds something a bigger buyer can actually absorb. That discipline is scarce. Tune in to hear how Richard separates cosmetic “retail” from real, necessity-based demand and why “good real estate with good business plans always wins out.” *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Building Multifamily When Others Pause
11/12/2025
Building Multifamily When Others Pause
Michael Procopio runs a fourth-generation, vertically integrated ground up multifamily development company, Procopio Companies, that’s active across the Northeast, Carolinas, Texas, and Florida, 10–12 ground-up projects at a time, from entitlement through construction and hospitality-style management. In other words: he’s shipping when many sponsors can’t. In my conversation with Michael, we talked about how to get deals done in a market where institutions say they’re “active” but still hesitate, why capital structure, not just cap rates, decides feasibility, and where the next leg of multifamily growth may come from (hint: the Northeast, but not how you think). Here are five questions Michael answers that matter if you’re deploying real dollars in 2025–26: How should sponsors weigh institutional equity vs. family offices vs. syndicated HNW? Why are institutions “skittish” on development even in top markets and what can sponsors do about it? What’s the real cost impact of tariffs and immigration enforcement on ground up construction? Where is Procopio putting shovels in the ground now? What’s the case for build-to-rent in the Northeast? We also cover why OZs remain underused by family offices despite flexible timing and the ability to refi out capital mid-hold while keeping cash flow. If you’re serious about building, and owning, the levers that create feasibility, you’ll find this one useful. Tune in to hear how Michael is aligning capital, costs, and city hall to move 10–12 projects while the herd watches the headlines. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Cautious Optimism for Multifamily
11/04/2025
Cautious Optimism for Multifamily
Sean Burton runs one of the most integrated multifamily platforms on the West Coast. As CEO of Cityview, he oversees development, construction management, and property management across ~40 assets in supply-constrained markets. That full-stack view matters right now because capital is moving—and underwriting discipline will separate winners from passengers. Theme: Debt is back, development capital is selectively returning, and OZ 2.0 arrives in 2027. But the only rate that really matters for valuations is the 10-year, not the headline cut. If you build your thesis on structure, not dirt, regime changes will find you out. Five questions Sean answers: What’s actually happening in debt? Why are private-credit spreads at cycle lows and banks re-entering, and how should sponsors lock terms without over-betting on near-term policy cuts? Where is equity leaning now? Why are insurance companies and bulge-bracket managers warming to development in true supply-constraints—and why are coastal markets back in the conversation? Do tariffs and immigration enforcement change cost and schedule? What did a 17-sub deep-dive reveal about hard costs (+2.7%) vs. headline noise—and how should you interrogate your supply chain? How should investors think about policy-driven liquidity (Basel relief, rate cuts) vs. the cap-rate anchor at the long end? Where’s the line between stimulus and a “sugar-rush” that lifts the 10-year? What can cities do—practically—to attract capital? Why San Diego’s timeline certainty (with real affordability requirements) is winning 1,000-unit pipelines while LA’s political risk still prices deals wider. If you’re underwriting 2025–27, this episode is a field guide: fundamentals over financial engineering, explicit policy-risk pricing, a 2027 OZ relaunch plan, and a daily read on the 10-year. Capital is available; discipline is scarce. Tune in for the full conversation with Sean Burton, CEO of Cityview—and pressure-test your next IC memo against his playbook. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Capital Freeze Meets Market Thaw
10/29/2025
Capital Freeze Meets Market Thaw
My podcast guest this week is Chris Garner, CEO, Avanti Residential, an owner-operator with thousands of units across seven states, who has four decades in the trenches. Garner explains how the multifamily market is bottoming – with local nuance. The past two years weren’t a demand recession, he says, so much as a supply shock in growth metros. Concessions did the absorbing. Now we’re approaching the peak of deliveries in places like Nashville, Denver, and Phoenix but investment committees are still anchored to five-year IRR math and negative-leverage scar tissue. His take on timing is blunt – “We’re at the bottom of the multifamily cycle, if not the beginning of the recovery,” but the irony is that capital is still sidelined. Investment committees remain cautious, waiting for “clear evidence” that fundamentals have turned, even though the best returns are made before that clarity arrives. As Garner put it, everyone talks about not following the herd, “but everybody’s part of the herd.” When deals finally reprice and capital moves, the easy money is gone. “That’s when the best deals get missed because you couldn’t raise capital when it was actually the right time to buy.” Five questions Chris and I discuss: Where are we in the cycle? What does an efficient operating model look like now? How should value-add evolve? What’s the realistic path to transacting again? What hold period wins from here? Tune in for the full conversation with Chris Garner, CEO, Avanti Residential - a masterclass in operating discipline, market selection, and underwriting in the real world. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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A Rolling Loan Gathers No Loss
10/23/2025
A Rolling Loan Gathers No Loss
When workout specialist Norman Radow sat across from a developer who'd just lost a half-billion-dollar condo project in LA and asked what he'd change, the developer pounded the table, "I wouldn't change a thing. I did everything right!" That's when Norman knew exactly why he was there. Norman Radow is CEO of The RADCO Companies, an Atlanta-based opportunistic real estate firm that has acquired, invested in, and operated over 30,000 multifamily units across 15 markets and completed more than 100 deals totaling $3.3 billion over the past decade. But his story begins earlier – as Lehman Brothers' off-balance-sheet workout specialist, where he earned the title "workout king" from The New York Times in 2009 after unwinding some of the most complex distressed assets in modern real estate history. In this conversation, Norman shares battle-tested wisdom from three decades of buying buildings nobody else wanted – from the savings and loan crisis through the GFC to today's market paralysis. Five questions answered: Why did Norman wait three years to get back into the distress game – and what finally triggered his return? What do ALL failed condo projects he studied have in common? (Hint: it's not what you think.) Why are banks giving free extensions to sponsors with "unclean hands" instead of bringing in fresh operators? Where is institutional capital flowing right now – and why non-institutional investors shouldn't compete there. What's the real story behind "extend and pretend" 2.0? If you're trying to make sense of today's multifamily market – the disconnect between debt and equity, why distressed deals aren't trading, and where smart money should position for the next 24-36 months – this delivers hard-earned pattern recognition from someone who's seen this movie before. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Real Estate's Banquet of Consequences
10/15/2025
Real Estate's Banquet of Consequences
My guest today is David Lynn, PhD — CEO of Unity Investment Management, a private-equity real-estate firm with nearly $1 billion AUM across 74 medical outpatient buildings nationwide. A London School of Economics PhD and MIT MBA, David cuts through macro confusion with a steady, data-driven view of where capital and demographics are really pulling the market. Driving Thesis: America’s aging population and the rise of personalized medicine, longevity science, and AI diagnostics are reshaping health-care real estate. Telehealth doesn’t kill in-person visits — it creates more of them. And as construction costs rise and MOB supply stays tight, low-beta sectors like medical outpatient buildings are poised to outperform high-volatility multifamily and office assets. Why it matters: We’re entering a post-banquet cycle — after 15 years of ultra-cheap debt and compressed cap rates. David argues that the “easy-money era” is over, but patient investors still win through cash-flow discipline and blend-and-extend lender relationships. Medical tenants are non-discretionary and financially stable; that stability will anchor returns as rates ease and capital markets thaw. Five questions David answers: Why MOBs held their value while multifamily stumbled. How telemedicine actually drives physical visits. What AI and genomics mean for future space demand. Where we are in the cap-rate cycle (and why this may be the bottom). How tariffs, immigration, and Fed policy feed through to CRE pricing. Takeaways for sponsors & LPs: • Favor low-volatility sectors with durable cash flow. • Shorter leases can beat inflation without adding risk. • Blend and extend — don’t panic-sell distress. • Watch employment and energy as deflationary signals. • AI and aging will drive demand more than interest rates. If you believe steady beats speculative, this episode maps how to navigate the new cycle with a scientist-investor’s lens — one rooted in data, discipline, and durable demand. David Lynn is that rare voice who bridges macro economics and boots-on-the-ground real estate with clarity and calm. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Labor, Not Inflation, Drives CRE Cycles
09/30/2025
Labor, Not Inflation, Drives CRE Cycles
My guest today is Ryan Severino, Chief Economist & Head of Research at private equity real estate shop, BGO ($89 billion of AUM), who cuts through the macro noise with a practical roadmap for real estate sponsors and their investors. Driving Thesis: A new administration: slower immigration, volatile trade policy, and accelerating AI. These three forces are reshaping growth, hiring, space demand, and cap rates. If you’re waiting for “inflation down → all clear,” you’ll miss the real drivers. Why it matters: The biggest hit was capital-markets math. If the Fed guides toward neutral (where the Fed’s actions neither stimulate nor restrains economic growth) and the long end eases (10/30 year treasury yields come down), origination, transactions, and pricing can recover faster than fundamentals. Durable investment returns still come down to labor, not inflation headlines. Five questions Ryan answers: Today’s savvy investors should be looking at what? What is the cleanest macro signal for CRE? Tariffs vs. uncertainty; what’s worse? Rate cuts: boon or “sugar rush”? Where will AI hit property first? Takeaways for sponsors & LPs: Underwrite to jobs, not CPI (inflation) chatter. Get hyper-local; this is a geography-led cycle. Favor durable demand pools (workforce housing). Expect a capital-markets thaw before a fundamental boom. Treat uncertainty as baseline; build flexibility into debt and expand equity capital sources. If you’re separating signal from noise, this episode re-anchors the playbook: watch payrolls, heed forward guidance, underwrite locally, own real demand. According to ChatGPT’s analysis of Ryan’s historical predictions, he has ‘called the cycle's shape better than most; no overreaction to inflation, no premature recession warnings, and consistent recognition of labor market strength and capital flow dynamics. That’s a rare track record, especially in a market where even top-tier macro shops have missed big turns.’ Ryan’s the real deal – hardly any wonder he’s Chief Economist at an $89 billion AUM shop. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Trust and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
09/25/2025
Trust and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Erica Groshen knows what’s behind the numbers. She served as the 14th Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a Vice President at the New York Fed. The BLS is rarely in the headlines but political assaults on its independence have suddenly made its work front-page news. At stake: whether the data that guide trillions in investment and policy decisions can still be trusted. In our conversation, Erica and I explored five questions that matter not just for CRE professionals, but for anyone trying to make sense of today’s economy: What happens to markets when political leaders undermine trust in official statistics? How would a politicized Fed and BLS reshape the cost of capital and risk across the economy? How is the nation’s labor data actually gathered? Why does the BLS’s data matter so much for the business and CRE cycle? How does the Fed use labor data to set interest rates? This isn’t an abstract debate. For commercial real estate, cap rates, borrowing costs, and deal structures all trace back to the business cycle - and that cycle is measured first and foremost by BLS data. If you want to look beyond today’s headlines and hear why institutional trust translates directly into your cost of capital — this is the episode to listen to. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Why Affordable Multifamily Outshines Luxury
09/22/2025
Why Affordable Multifamily Outshines Luxury
Greg MacKinnon is Director of Research at the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA), where he updates the world’s largest institutional investors on portfolio construction, risk, and strategy. His is a vantage point most sponsors never get to hear directly. In this conversation, Greg and I revisited our conversation from two weeks ago to drill deeper into the housing market. His thesis is simple but surprising: the capital flows and risk assessments at the very top of the pyramid are being reshaped by renter bifurcation and the economics of affordability. Here are five questions Greg answered that every serious CRE professional should consider: Why does the 10-year Treasury matter more than the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut last week? How fragile is today’s economy, and what does that mean for institutional portfolio construction? How can understanding the “barbell” of renter demand help you make better investment decisions? Why has naturally affordable multifamily historically outperformed luxury on a risk-adjusted basis? Where are institutions actually deploying capital today and why? Greg’s insights are drawn from the institutional world, where the stakes are measured in billions and the lens is long-term risk management. For sponsors and operators, listening in offers a rare chance to see how these investors are evaluating markets - and to align your own strategies accordingly. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Distress Is Coming - Slowly, Then All At Once
09/15/2025
Distress Is Coming - Slowly, Then All At Once
Reid Bennett knows multifamily. As National Council Chair of Multifamily at SVN and a 24-year broker across market-rate, workforce, and affordable housing, he’s completed hundreds of transactions and advised lenders on more than 450 broker opinions of value (BOV) in just the past 18 months. In my recent conversation with him, Reid cuts through the noise to explain what’s really happening in multifamily and why sponsors and investors need to pay attention. Here are five big questions he answers: Are the 450+ BOVs a sign that distress is about to hit multifamily, or just lenders marking time? Why are occupancies still in the mid-90s when everything else in the economy feels shaky? What’s crushing NOI faster - insurance, property taxes, or payroll? How should investors think about workforce housing as a long-term hedge against oversupply at the top end? Why do Class A buildings show concessions while B and C rents remain sticky, and how does new supply really solve affordability? This isn’t 2009, but it isn’t 2021 either. Reid explains why today’s market feels like a slow-motion reset and what signals to watch if you want to stay ahead. Tune in to hear Reid’s unvarnished take. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Community Banks, Conservative Debt, Real Returns
09/14/2025
Community Banks, Conservative Debt, Real Returns
A Banker’s Memory Is a Sponsor’s Edge Brad Andrus isn’t just another operator in today’s market. He’s the co-founder of Northbridge Commercial Real Estate and a former community-bank lender who cut his teeth during the 2008 crisis. That experience shaped the conservative, cash-flow-first discipline he brings to self-storage, office, and industrial deals across DFW today. In this episode, Brad lays out why sponsors who master operating discipline—not market timing—win when capital is cautious and debt is expensive. Here are 5 questions he answers that every sponsor and investor should be paying attention to right now: How do you structure debt so it survives a cycle—even if growth underwhelms? Why are community banks still the hidden edge for sponsors, even in today’s tighter credit regime? What’s the new investor mindset after 2021–2023’s write-downs and capital calls? How do you play offense in self-storage when household mobility (and move-ins) slows down? What really earns sponsors repeat checks from equity investors in 2024–2025? Brad’s through-line is refreshingly clear: lower leverage, cash-flow bias, relationship banking, and transparent communication. For anyone raising capital or allocating into deals right now, his insights are a blueprint for surviving—and compounding—across market cycles. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Institutional Capital’s New Real Estate Playbook
09/09/2025
Institutional Capital’s New Real Estate Playbook
Institutional CRE investing: A market run by allocation math – and uncertainty My podcast/YouTube guest today is Greg MacKinnon, Director of Research at the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA). PREA represents the institutional real estate community - think pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and other fiduciaries managing hundreds of billions on behalf of millions of beneficiaries. These are the investors who typically allocate to real estate as part of their overall investment portfolios and who set the tone for how capital flows through the entire real estate market. Greg explains how while institutional real estate remains a roughly 10% sleeve in diversified institutional portfolios, the number matters less than the mechanics behind it. When equities rally and private values fall, the real estate slice shrinks—creating a theoretical bid to “rebalance” back to target. In practice, that bid has been clogged by a fund-recycling problem: closed-end vehicles haven’t been returning capital as quickly because exits have slowed, which leaves investors waiting for distributions before recommitting. Until that dam breaks more broadly, new capital formation into private real estate remains inconsistent across strategies and managers. Office: price discovery by compulsion Institutional portfolios built in a world where office was a core holding are still working through the repricing. Unlevered office values are down on the order of ~40% from pre-COVID peaks nationally; with leverage, many positions are effectively wiped out, explaining why owners resist selling and why trades are scarce. That stasis is ending as lenders tire of “extend and pretend,” loan maturities arrive, and forced decisions accelerate. The practical question for CIOs isn’t simply “hold or sell” but how fast to harvest, return, and re-underwrite risk elsewhere. Expect more office volume but much of it distress-driven rather than conviction buying. The rate cut mirage: CRE runs on growth and the 10-year Market chatter obsesses over the next Fed move. Institutional capital takes a broader view. The cost of capital that matters for underwriting – term debt, cap-rate anchoring, discount rates – is tethered more to the 10-year Treasury than the overnight Fed funds rate. A policy cut can coexist with a higher 10-year if inflation risk re-prices, blunting any “cuts are bullish” narrative. More importantly: CRE performance tracks the real economy’s breadth and durability. Historically, rising interest rates often coincide with strong growth and healthy real estate. Falling rates tend to arrive with deceleration, which is why “cuts” are not automatically good news for NOI or values. Underwrite your forward cash flows, not the headline. Policy risk is now an underwriting line item Global capital has long treated the U.S. as the default safe harbor. That advantage compresses when macro policy feels unpredictable – tariffs one week, reversals the next, and public debate over central-bank independence. Some non-U.S. allocators have simply chosen not to live with the noise premium, shifting incremental dollars to Europe. Domestic institutions aren’t exiting the U.S., but the signal is clear: political-economy volatility now shows up as a higher hurdle rate, more conditional investment committee approvals, and a stronger preference for managers who can navigate policy in both research and structuring. Where the money is actually going Facing actuarial return targets and a cloudy macro, institutions are tilting toward “where alpha lives now”: Digital and specialized industrial: data centers; cold storage; and industrial outdoor storage (IOS) – think secured yards for heavy equipment – where supply is constrained and tenant demand is need-based. Housing adjacencies: single-family rental, manufactured housing, student housing, and seniors housing, plus targeted affordable strategies that can layer policy incentives with operating expertise. Selective core logistics and resilient multifamily: still investable but crowded; institutions need an edge in submarket selection, cost basis, or operations to meet return hurdles. Themes in common: operational complexity that deters industry tourists, local expertise that differentiates underwriting, and cash flows less correlated to the office cycle. The portfolio is changing: from “real estate” to “real assets” Many large investors are reorganizing how they bucket risk. Instead of a hard 10% “real estate” sleeve, they’re adopting either a broader real assets mandate (real estate + infrastructure + sometimes commodities) or a private markets sleeve (real estate + private credit + private equity). The goal is flexibility: tilt to where relative value is best without tripping governance wires each time. This structural shift makes it easier for a head of Real Assets to move dollars from, say, mid-risk equity in apartments to long-duration infrastructure when spreads and growth argue for it, and to rotate back when underwriting improves. It’s a quiet change with large implications for which managers get funded and when. “Institutional quality” is a culture, not a class of building Too many sponsors use “institutional quality” as shorthand for a gleaming asset. Institutions define quality as process: governance, repeatability, controls, reporting cadence, and audit-ready data, plus the discipline to say “no” when the numbers don’t clear the bar. That’s why a best-in-class niche specialist (e.g., Southwest self-storage or cold-chain) can attract blue-chip LPs without owning a single skyline trophy. Conversely, a sponsor with a glossy deck but ad-hoc reporting will struggle to cross the institutional threshold even in “prime” locations. What to do now (operators and allocators) Own the 10-year, not the headline. Build your assumptions around the 10-year Treasury and the yield curve, not the Fed’s short-term rate projections. Stress cash flows under slower growth. Lean into complex operations. Data centers, IOS, cold storage, seniors housing, where capability barriers protect yield. Be distribution-aware. If you’re raising from institutions, understand their recycling constraints; design pacing and structures that fit their liquidity reality. Institutionalize the back office. Reporting, controls, and data pipelines are capital-raising assets. Treat them as such. Bottom line: allocations still want to be filled, but the bar is higher and the path is narrower. Those who combine operating edge with institutional process will take disproportionate share when the dam finally breaks. n.b. Greg and I take a detailed look at what ‘institutional’ real estate really means; how it’s defined, structured, and operates. It’s worth tuning in so you can separate fact from fiction the next time you see the term in a pitch deck. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Tariffs, Trust, and the Cost of Capital
08/20/2025
Tariffs, Trust, and the Cost of Capital
The Signal Beneath the Noise Serious operators obsess over the next print, but my podcast/YouTube guest this week, Bankrate senior economic analyst, Mark Hamrick, argues the industry is missing the structural signals that actually set the cost of capital and shape demand. Start with this premise: Data credibility is a macro variable. When the quality of national jobs and inflation statistics is questioned, it is not just an esoteric Beltway quarrel; it becomes a pricing input for Treasuries and, by extension, mortgages, construction loans and exit cap rates. As Hamrick puts it, the path to good decisions for households, enterprises and policymakers ‘is lined by high quality economic data, most of which is generated by the federal government.’ Hamrick’s concern is not theoretical. He links the chain plainly: if markets doubt the numbers guiding the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, you can ‘envision a scenario where there’s less demand for our Treasury debt,’ forcing higher yields to clear supply – an economy‑wide tax that lifts borrowing costs from mortgages to autos and narrows the Fed’s room to maneuver. What Happens If Trust Erodes? The near‑term catalyst for this anxiety is unusual: the Labor Department’s head statistician was fired after unfavorable revisions, and an underqualified nominee has floated ideas as extreme as not publishing the data at all. Hamrick’s advice for investors and executives is simple: pay attention. This may not break the system tomorrow, but it introduces risk premia where none previously existed. Through a real estate lens, the translation is straightforward. Underwriting already contends with volatile inputs on rents, expenses and exit liquidity; add a credibility discount on macro data and your discount rate moves against you. Prudent sponsors should stress‑test deals for a modest upward shock in base rates – an echo of Hamrick’s ‘economy‑wide tax’ – and consider how thinner debt markets would propagate through construction starts and refis. Housing’s Lock‑In: Inventory, Not Prices, Is the Release Valve The ‘lock‑in effect’ remains the defining feature of U.S. housing. Owners sitting on sub‑3% mortgages are rationally immobile, starving resale inventory and suppressing household formation mobility, a dynamic Hamrick equates with today’s ‘no hire, no fire’ labor market: stable but sluggish churn. Builders fill some of the gap, but affordability remains constrained by national price firmness and still‑elevated mortgage rates relative to the pandemic trough. What happens if mortgage rates dip to 6.25% or even 5.5%? Don’t expect a binary ‘unlock.’ Hamrick argues for incremental improvement rather than a light switch: lower rates would expand qualification and appetite gradually, and, crucially, free inventory. He is less worried that cheaper financing simply bids up prices; the supply response from would‑be sellers is the more powerful margin effect. For operators underwriting for‑sale housing (build to rent or single-family home developments), the tactical read is to focus on markets where latent move‑up sellers dominate and where new‑home concessions currently set the comp stack. He also reminds us of the persistent, national‑level truth: prices have been unusually firm for years; in the U.S., homeownership is still the primary path to wealth – advantage owners, disadvantage non‑owners. Wealth Transfer: Inequality In, Inequality Out The widely cited $84 trillion Boomer‑to‑GenX/Millennial wealth transfer via inheritance won’t repair the middle class. It will mainly perpetuate asset inequality: assets beget assets, and the recipients most likely to inherit are already nearer the ‘have’ column. That implies continuing bifurcation in housing demand (prime school districts, high‑amenity suburbs) alongside a renter cohort optimizing for cash‑flow goals rather than equity growth. For CRE, that supports a barbell: high‑income suburban nodes + durable rental demand where incomes grow but deposits lag. Renting Without Shame and the Budget Reality Check Hamrick is refreshingly direct: there is no shame in renting as, perhaps, there used to be. For many households, renting is a rational bridge to other financial goals; build emergency savings, avoid surprise home maintenance expenses, and keep debt service from getting ‘too far out over your skis.’ For CRE owners, this fortifies the case for professionally managed rental product with transparent total‑cost‑of‑living and flexible lease options. For lenders, it argues for cautious debt-to-income ratios and expense reserves in first‑time buyer programs. Tariffs, Inflation, and the New Dashboard Hamrick closes with a monitoring list to stay on top of dominant economic trends: labor market strength (monthly employment; weekly jobless claims), the inflation complex (Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE)), and the full housing tape (mortgage rates, existing/new sales, builder confidence, starts) plus, of course, one political‑economy input now impossible to ignore: tariffs, with the effective rate at the highest level since the Great Depression. For CRE, tariffs are not an abstract: they seep into materials costs, fit‑out budgets, and the headline inflation path that steers the Fed. Sponsors should build tariff scenarios into Guaranteed Maximum Price (GMP) contingencies and model procurement alternates. Actionable Takeaways for CRE Professionals Price a credibility premium: Run sensitivities for higher Treasury yields if data trust wobbles; Pay attention to how easily the government can sell its debt and the extra yield investors demand on longer bonds. Both shape interest rates, which then filter into real estate cap rates. Underwrite inventory elasticity, not sticker shock: As rates ease, model inventory release ahead of price spikes; focus on submarkets with pent‑up sellers. Lean into renting’s rationality: Product that aligns with household cash‑flow priorities will capture durable demand while affordability resets. Track tariffs as a construction line‑item and macro tailwind to inflation: Feed this into budgets and hold periods. My conversation with Mark really brought home how connected real estate is to the bigger capital markets picture. If you want a sense of where cap rates are heading, keep an eye on the bond market – because that’s where the story starts. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Hope Certificates and Hidden Distress
08/05/2025
Hope Certificates and Hidden Distress
Calm on the Surface, Distress Below: Joe Blackbourn on the State of Sunbelt Multifamily The Eye of the Storm? When my podcast guest this week, Joe Blackbourn, president and founder of Everest Holdings, stepped in front of a room of ULI members in late 2024, he titled his multifamily market forecast “An Underdressed Weatherman Gets Sent Into a Hurricane.” The image was evocative – and accurate. Multifamily investors, developers, and lenders had been navigating gale-force winds of rising rates, inflation shocks, and structural cost resets. And yet, as Blackbourn noted in my conversation with him, today the industry still appears eerily calm. “There’s a lot of stormy weather on the horizon, and, like a hurricane, we don’t know quite where it’s going to land or how bad it’s going to be.” The Invisible Cost of ‘Calm’ Core inflation may be retreating, but the real story, Blackbourn argues, is not about the rate of change. It’s about the baseline shift. “Even if we’re at just over 2% now, it’s still a 30% increase in a very short period of time,” he said, referring to food prices, but with implications for housing as well. Home prices in many U.S. markets, particularly across the Sunbelt, have surged by 30–50% since 2020. That repricing is likely to stick. “It’s really difficult to give that pricing back,” he added. “Short of some real economic calamity, the best we can manage is slower growth, not a decline in consumer pricing.” That same principle is locking up real estate deals. Rent growth has slowed, but operating expenses have not. The result is compressed margins, sluggish NOI, and a widespread inability to transact or refinance. Multifamily: Where Distress Hides Quietly On paper, the multifamily sector looks surprisingly stable. Cap rates for high-quality assets remain in the 5.0%–5.25% range, and transaction volume is beginning to pick up in select markets. But beneath the surface, stress is mounting. “There’s a lot of stress at the balance sheet level,” said Blackbourn. “And it’s not being helped by property-level performance.” In many Sunbelt markets, especially those with pandemic-era construction booms, organic NOI growth is flat or negative. Rent collection is delayed, staffing is inconsistent, and delinquencies are rising. “We’re seeing situations where it’s taking all month to get the rents collected,” he noted. “You’d be at the 15th of the month with less than 50% of rents in the door.” Yet distress sales remain rare. Why? Blackbourn offers two reasons: Lender tactics: Debt funds are “hope-certificating” properties, granting extensions, persuading sponsors to inject capital, and delaying the inevitable. Human psychology: “There’s a survival instinct at work,” he observed. “People will do whatever they can to stay in the game.” What Keeps Deals Frozen? Everyone is waiting. Borrowers, lenders, and investors are all betting on falling interest rates to solve their problems. But Blackbourn remains skeptical. “I don’t think it’s inevitable that rates come down,” he said. “And yet, it’s within the debt fund’s interest to persuade borrowers that they will.” Many current valuations are premised on that hope. But even if rates do drop, the bid-ask spread remains wide. In his words, “It feels like this really taut balloon; fragile.” Why Aren’t Cap Rates Rising Faster? One of the stranger dynamics in today’s market is that cap rates haven’t risen much, despite the Fed holding policy rates above 5%. High-quality assets are still trading at 5%–5.25% caps. How is that possible? “If you have the right basis, you can sell into that,” Blackbourn explained. “The pricing for high-quality assets hasn’t jumped that much.” But for vintage assets, pricing capitulation is coming. Lenders are forcing assets to market when no other solutions are viable. And while buyers are circling, few are pouncing. Supply, Demand, and the Surprise of Absorption Another surprise: absorption is holding up remarkably well. “We’re seeing absorption that’s about keeping up with supply,” Blackbourn noted. “In some markets, we’re about to hit the point where we’re absorbing more units than we’re adding.” This matters. Historically, once net absorption overtakes new deliveries, rents begin to recover, often before occupancy hits 95%. And that could happen sooner than expected in markets like Phoenix. “We’re modeling that inflection point this year,” he said. But again, bifurcation matters. New Class A developments are attracting high-income renters, people who once would have bought homes. Meanwhile, vintage B and C properties are seeing tenants who are increasingly rent-burdened. “In new projects, we’re seeing a higher-income demographic than we’ve ever seen,” said Blackbourn. “But in older assets, collections are way down. Rents are up 30%, but incomes aren’t.” The Forecast: Q3 and Q4 2025 Looking ahead to the rest of the year, Blackbourn sees a mixed bag. More volume is expected from both opportunistic buyers and forced sellers. Permits are collapsing, setting up an eventual rebound in pricing power. Selective outperformers will emerge in submarkets with favorable rent-to-income ratios. “We could see surprising outperformance in the asset class sooner than people think,” he said. “But it will be bifurcated by quality, by tenant income, and by geography.” In short, the underdressed weatherman may not be in the eye of the storm just yet – but the wind is shifting.
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The New Real Estate Cycle Begins
07/22/2025
The New Real Estate Cycle Begins
A Mild Ending, A Fresh Start: Richard Barkham’s Post-CBRE View of the CRE Market The End of a Cycle - Without the Crash After 40 years in the field and a distinguished final act as Global Chief Economist at CBRE, Richard Barkham’s take on the state of commercial real estate is disarmingly calm. “This has been the mildest end of cycle that we've seen in 40 years – in fact, in my whole career,” he says. Unlike previous downturns - 1989, 2000, 2008 - which were accompanied by macroeconomic crises, today’s cycle-end feels strangely undramatic. Vacancy rates have risen, prices have declined 25-30%, and capital markets activity has bottomed out, but there’s been no systemic financial collapse. Why? In Barkham’s view, the macro cycle hasn’t ended. “We've got the end of a real estate cycle, but no end of the macro cycle.” Yet. This divergence - CRE in a correction, the economy still growing - frames his optimistic outlook for real estate. Stimulus, Not Stability The recent U.S. tax bill has added short-term fuel to the macro picture. Barkham describes it as a “stimulatory” package: it injects fiscal stimulus into an already resilient economy, even if the longer-term consequences include rising national debt and pressure on Treasury yields. "There’s a degree of stimulus in that bill… which will allow a certain amount of certainty, confidence and stimulus to boost growth.” But not all stimulus is equal. Barkham worries that “the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio goes, the more upward pressure there is on the ten-year Treasury,” which forms the basis for CRE pricing. He sees an elevated 10-year yield, anchored in the 4–4.5% range, as a likely headwind for valuations, particularly for highly levered deals. Still, he believes the U.S. economy can absorb this, at least for now. “The U.S. isn’t going to fall over,” he says. “The tax bill will boost growth, but it will also keep the ten-year Treasury elevated.” Banks Are Lending Cautiously Contrary to headlines about a $950 billion wall of maturities and doom-laden refinancing cliffs, Barkham is sanguine about debt markets. He credits both the structural health of CRE and the Fed’s deft handling of last year’s banking turbulence. “Banks have been very, very unwilling to take loans back,” he explains. “Where assets can still service loans, banks have been willing to extend… There might have been some cash in refinancing, but the wall of debt is a non-issue, frankly.” Even deregulation in the new tax bill could loosen credit conditions further. Barkham predicts larger banks will expand their share of real estate lending as capital requirements ease. “That just broadens the source of debt, which is good for market liquidity,” he says. The Start of a New Real Estate Cycle While macro conditions may be mid-to-late cycle, CRE is in Barkham’s view at the start of a new cycle. The real estate cycle that began in 2014 has ended, and signs of early recovery - vacancy stabilization, limited new construction, and a flight to quality - are evident. “You’ve got all the inventory from the last cycle… people are moving into newer, better assets,” he says. “Eventually, when that runs out, new development resumes. But we’re not there yet.” He sees real estate as “very investable right now,” particularly for those concerned about inflation. “If we are in a higher inflation environment - with the stimulus, with the pressure on the Fed politically to bring down interest rates - then I think it’s a good time to invest in real estate.” Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Fed’s Delicate Dance Barkham’s macroeconomic outlook is nuanced. While he acknowledges the Fed may eventually ease, trade tariffs and domestic manufacturing policies could delay rate cuts by adding inflationary pressure. “It’ll take a while for the Fed to make sure tariffs don’t feed into second and third round inflation,” he notes. He pays special attention to real interest rates - the difference between nominal rates and inflation expectations - as a signal of latent financial stress. If inflation surprises to the downside, as it has recently, real rates rise and that can squeeze assets across the economy. But he tempers this with perspective. “Real estate tends to do quite well over the long term. Not necessarily in the six- or 12-month period, but over time.” Sectors to Watch: Healthcare, Digital, and Travel Demographics and technology shape Barkham’s long-term sector views. He sees aging as a structural tailwind but cautions against oversimplifying it. The boomer generation, now in their 60s and early 70s, are not just healthcare consumers, they’re also travelers. “Those are prime-age travelers,” he notes. “If you're looking for sectors that are going to benefit from boomer retirement, look at travel… everything from Airbnb to different hotel types.” Healthcare and digital economy trends also feature prominently. He encourages investors to monitor how people are working, living, and consuming services. Hybrid work and digital delivery models are reshaping occupier demand and investors must follow these patterns, not just macro charts. Final Advice: Keep Leverage Low, Go Prime For those looking to deploy capital now, Barkham’s advice is clear and grounded: “Keep your debt low. Focus on prime grade assets. Invest in the sectors that have the tailwinds of demographics and technology.” The key is to remain alert to tenant exposure and the consumer's vulnerability in any upcoming recession. “Just watch the sensitivity of your real estate to a consumer downturn,” he warns. With policy uncertainty, an aging population, and structural change across industries, Barkham offers a final reminder: real estate is both cyclical and structural. The best strategies pay attention to both. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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CRE’s Next Threat: Uninsurable Assets
07/15/2025
CRE’s Next Threat: Uninsurable Assets
The Uninsurable Future: How Climate-Driven Insurance Risk is Reshaping Real Estate The Canary in the CRE Coal Mine If insurance is the canary in the coal mine for climate risk, then the bird has stopped singing. That’s the warning from Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and current Director of the Climate Risk Initiative at UC Berkeley. In a conversation that touches on reinsurance markets, mortgage delinquencies, lender behavior, and regulatory dysfunction, Jones laid out the most sobering climate-related CRE risk analysis to date: we are already living through a systemic insurance crisis—and commercial real estate is not exempt. “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable areas in this country,” Jones warns. From Homeowners to High-Rises: What the Data Shows Much of the early distress has been observed in the residential and small business markets, where data is more publicly available. A study by the Dallas Fed, cited by Jones, found a direct correlation between areas hardest hit by climate events and surging insurance premiums, non-renewals, and mortgage delinquencies. But commercial real estate isn’t insulated. While pricing data is less transparent due to looser filing requirements, Jones states, “everything that I’ve seen indicates that those [commercial] rates are going up too,” particularly in regions where catastrophic climate events are becoming more frequent and severe. Take Florida. One of our clients’ office tower's premiums jumped from $300,000 to $1.2 million in a single renewal cycle. That’s straight off the bottom line. The hit is entirely non-accretive; it’s pure cost. The Feedback Loop: Insurance, Lending, and Liquidity As insurance availability shrinks and prices soar, lending dries up. Lenders want to see that there is property and casualty insurance yet, as it becomes harder to get, that has implications in credit markets… and flow-through implications to the real economy. It’s not just anecdotal. Jones references studies showing that banks are offloading loans insured by lower-rated, higher-risk insurers to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, effectively shifting the risk onto taxpayers. That means if a hurricane hits and the house is knocked down, there isn’t insurance available, potentially because the insurance company went insolvent. The trend is clear: insurance stress is bleeding into credit markets and weakening the foundations of the entire real estate financing stack. The “Deregulation” Illusion Some states, like Florida, are trying to respond by loosening regulatory constraints to attract insurers. Jones is skeptical. “Florida rates are four times the national average,” he says. The state has adopted taxpayer-funded reinsurance schemes, weakened litigation protections, and allowed less-robust rating agencies to operate. Still, “the national branded home insurers are not writing in Florida… they can’t make a profit,” says Jones. “So even with all these changes, the background risk is too great.” In short: deregulation cannot solve a fundamentally unprofitable underwriting environment driven by climate volatility. Adaptation Isn’t Being Priced In - Yet Jones is more optimistic about resilience measures. Home hardening, defensible space, and forest management, especially in wildfire-prone states like California, can materially reduce losses. Commercial insurers often have engineering staff to assess and recommend these strategies. But the industry hasn’t kept pace. “Insurers, by and large, are not accounting for property, community, and landscape-scale adaptation and resilience in their models,” Jones says. One exception is Colorado, which passed a law requiring insurers to factor in proven risk mitigation. This could prove to be a model for commercial markets, but it’s early and insurers remain price takers in the face of mounting losses. From Reinsurance to Municipal Bonds: Signals to Watch What market signals should CRE investors monitor? Jones suggests: Insurance pricing and non-renewals: leading indicators of distress. Reinsurance costs: though recently softening, they’ve trended upward for years. Lender behavior: especially offloading risky loans to agencies. Rating agency downgrades: particularly for municipalities facing severe climate risk. Housing market mispricing: First Street Foundation estimates as much as $1 trillion in residential overvaluation due to underpriced climate risk. Any of these could tip the balance in specific markets or signal a broader inflection point. A Slow Collapse or a Sudden Shock? Is this a long-term crisis or a fast-moving one? “It’s happening in real time now,” says Jones. “It’s more likely that this will be a steady glide into uninsurability… as opposed to one catastrophic event that brings the whole house of cards down.” Still, the metaphor is chilling. The systemic risks posed by climate-driven insurance failure are already manifesting across sectors. Whether the collapse is gradual or sudden, the endpoint is clear. “There is no place in the United States where you have a ‘get out of climate change free’ card,” Jones warns. For CRE professionals, that means a hard reckoning is ahead – not just with climate, but with underwriting, capital access, and portfolio risk in a fundamentally altered landscape. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy
07/02/2025
Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy
Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy: A Data-Centric View on U.S. Housing with Chris Nebenzahl Locked-In America: The Housing Market’s Great Stall The U.S. housing market isn’t just tight, it’s inert. As Chris Nebenzahl, Housing Economist at John Burns Research and Consulting, puts it, America is experiencing a “lock-in effect” where millions of homeowners, beneficiaries of sub-3% mortgages from a prior era, have no incentive to move. Transactions, both in the for-sale and rental segments, are stalling. Inventory is constrained by economic rationality, not lack of demand. “The housing market thrives on constant moves,” Nebenzahl says. “But right now, across the housing spectrum, people are locked in.” The result: record-low turnover in single-family and multifamily rentals, with occupancy propped up by immobility rather than expansion. In such a frozen ecosystem, prices remain surprisingly buoyant despite high rates – a divergence from textbook supply-demand dynamics. The 5.5% Mortgage Threshold: A Reopening Trigger? The most actionable insight from Nebenzahl’s research: housing won’t truly unfreeze until mortgage rates return to a “magic number” of approximately 5.5%. That’s the psychological and financial line at which the lock-in effect starts to meaningfully ease, based on historical demand models and borrower behavior. With mortgage rates stuck between 6.5% and 7.5%, this still feels a long way off. Until that number is achieved, or until housing prices decline significantly, mobility will remain stifled. Notably, certain regions such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Tennessee are already seeing modest price declines, indicating that some pressure is starting to break through. But Nebenzahl is clear: this isn’t a repeat of 2008. “Nationwide, I think we’ll see maybe a 1–2% decline in home values. We’re nowhere near GFC territory,” he says. The real estate crash of yesteryear was a systemic event; today’s stalling is more friction than fissure. Bifurcation in Geography and Performance The story of U.S. housing is increasingly one of regional divergence. “It’s a tale of two markets,” Nebenzahl observes. Northeast, Midwest, parts of the West Coast: Supply remains tight, pricing is stable or even rising, and rent growth is positive particularly in cities like Boston, Chicago, and San Francisco. Sunbelt metros like Austin, Dallas, Denver, Nashville: Facing ongoing rent declines and incentives as a wave of multifamily supply catches up with (and briefly outpaces) demand. What’s driving this? In one word: inventory. “Austin, for example, has seen the most supply as a percentage of existing stock. That’s softened rents, even though demand remains strong.” The Quiet Strength of Rentals Despite oversupply in some markets, multifamily is holding up. Rents have stabilized, absorption remains healthy, and rent-to-income ratios are generally favorable. Nationwide, that ratio sits around 25%, well below the 30% threshold for ‘rent burden.’ Even in supply-saturated markets like Austin, ratios hover near 20%, laying a foundation for recovery. Why this resilience? A few reasons: Affordability gap: With for-sale housing out of reach for many due to both price and interest rates, renting becomes the only viable option. Mobility hedge: In uncertain economic times, the flexibility of a 12-month lease is more appealing than a 30-year mortgage. Demographic tailwinds: New household formation, though potentially threatened by labor market softness, is still skewing towards rentals. “The lion’s share of household formation is going into rental,” Nebenzahl says. “Because of affordability challenges, and because people are hesitant to make long-term commitments.” Cracks in the Foundation: Where Distress May Surface Still, there are stress points, especially in assets underwritten in the froth of 2021. “I’d be watching older vintage assets in oversupplied markets,” he says. “Many of those were acquired with floating rate debt and pro formas that didn’t anticipate interest rates going from 0% to 5.5% overnight.” These deals are now colliding with debt maturities, declining rents, and underwriting models that assumed permanent appreciation. That said, he does not forecast widespread defaults – more likely, selective distress in marginal players. Risks on the Horizon: Immigration, Labor, and Fragility Beyond rates and rent rolls, Nebenzahl highlights three structural risks that CRE professionals should monitor closely: Immigration policy: Rental demand and construction labor both depend heavily on immigrant populations. Recent restrictions, including H1-B visa tightening and deportations, have had a measurable cooling effect. “Immigrants rent across the income spectrum,” he notes. “A slowdown hits both the demand side and the build (supply) side.” Aging trades workforce: With fewer young workers entering skilled trades, the industry faces a slow-burning capacity problem. The average age of electricians, plumbers, and roofers is steadily rising, and backfilling this labor pool remains an unsolved challenge. Tariffs and supply chain volatility: Tariffs on building materials could push up construction costs 2–3%, and as Nebenzahl notes, those costs would disproportionately impact steel-heavy high-rise multifamily more than low-rise SFR or garden-style. Monetary Fog: The Fed, Rates, and Global Perception Much of the future, however, depends on interest rates and here Nebenzahl expresses qualified caution. While he believes we are “above neutral” levels now, he doesn’t expect a return to near zero interest rates. “Even in a mild recession, I don’t see the 10-year Treasury falling below 3–3.5%,” he says. But more troubling is what he calls the “qualitative fog”: rising geopolitical tension, politicization of monetary policy, and eroding investor trust in American stability. “We’re hearing less ‘there is no alternative’ about the U.S.,” he says. “Foreign capital is pausing. Not exiting – but pausing.” That loss of automatic confidence in U.S. housing and Treasuries could ripple through cap rates and investment demand far more than a 25-basis-point Fed decision. What to Watch: Nebenzahl’s Key Indicators For professionals managing exposure in this market, Nebenzahl advises watching: Job growth – Still the most reliable proxy for household formation. Household formation – Where people are forming new households, rentals are likely to benefit. Treasury market confidence – A real-time referendum on U.S. economic credibility. Final Thoughts: Where He’d Put $1 Million Today Asked how he’d allocate $1M today, Nebenzahl doesn’t hesitate: “I’d split it between Midwest and Sunbelt rentals, multifamily and build-to-rent.” He’s not holding cash. He’s not forecasting a crash. He’s betting on rental fundamentals and long-term demographic logic. “There’s dry powder waiting to be deployed,” he concludes. “And multifamily is still one of the most institutionally resilient plays in U.S. real estate.” *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty
06/25/2025
Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty
Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty: Barry Ritholtz on Investing in a Volatile World In my conversation with Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management and host of Bloomberg’s “Masters in Business” podcast, we explored market and real estate cycles, caution, and capital allocation in today’s increasingly unpredictable economic environment. Below are the most actionable and provocative takeaways for real estate investors, both passive and professional, drawn from Barry’s decades of lessons and market observations. Origins of Insight: From Blog to Bloomberg Ritholtz didn’t set out to run a multi-billion-dollar firm. What started as daily trading notes eventually evolved into a blog, a book, Bailout Nation, and a platform that positioned him to correctly call both the top and bottom of the 2008 financial crisis. This journey, grounded in curiosity and behavioral finance, shaped the contrarian and data-driven approach he still employs today. "I just wanted to know why some people made money while others didn’t doing the same thing." The 2008 Playbook: Behavioral Edge Over Economic Models Ritholtz attributes his early warning of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to non-traditional thinking and real estate roots (his mother was a real estate agent). Observing abnormal refinancing activity and "cash-out mania" led him to investigate securitized debt and derivative risk, well before it was mainstream. He reverse-engineered risk from Reinhart & Rogoff’s crisis research and famously predicted the Dow’s decline to ~6,800—earning mockery initially, then vindication. Echoes of 2008? Why This Time Feels Precarious While he stops short of predicting a crisis, Ritholtz allows for a 10–15% probability of a self-inflicted depression – a worst-case scenario rooted not in structural weakness, but political mismanagement. “It [is an] asymmetrical risk to take one bullet, put it in a six shooter, spin the wheel, and put it up against your head with a $28 trillion economy.” From tariffs to immigration policy to fiscal gamesmanship, Ritholtz sees signs that the U.S. may be eroding the long-standing trust that underpins reserve currency status and global capital flows. Cash Isn’t a Plan, Discipline Is When asked whether it makes sense to sit in cash and wait out the next downturn, Ritholtz counters with behavioral caution. Historically, those who “go to cash” rarely reenter at the right time and often miss the rebound entirely. “If you're going to sit out in cash, do you have the temperament, the discipline to get back in?” Instead, he recommends building resilience: modest leverage, long-term focus, and capital efficiency – hallmarks of legends like Sam Zell, who Ritholtz holds up as a model of disciplined real estate investing. A Word on Leverage: Use with Extreme Care High leverage is the common thread in stories of ruin. Ritholtz referenced the downfall of the Peloton CEO, who borrowed heavily against inflated stock. The same caution applies to over-leveraged real estate investors, especially those who haven’t endured a full cycle. “Market crashes are where capital returns to its rightful owners.” For CRE sponsors, now is the time to refinance where possible, preserve cash, and maintain flexibility, even if that means lower IRR projections. How to Filter the Noise: Create an Information Diet Ritholtz emphasized the need to tune out “financial candy from strangers” – the firehose of social media, Substacks, and hot takes by unvetted commentators. “They don’t know your zip code, your goals, your tax bracket. Why would you trust them?” He recommends identifying a shortlist of credible voices with defined, rational processes and a record of sound judgment. “Build your A-Team,” he advises. “Then ignore the rest.” Real Estate Today: Not Monolithic, but Multifaceted Unlike equities, real estate behaves very differently depending on location, asset class, and capital structure. While some sectors (e.g., Class B office) remain distressed, others (e.g., data centers, multifamily in select markets, industrial) are faring relatively well. “Literally, there are properties [Zell] held for half a century. He was long term… used modest amounts of leverage, and he bought great properties at even better prices.” Ritholtz warns against painting real estate with a broad brush and urges nuanced thinking about cycles, risk-adjusted return, and operator quality. Sentiment vs. Signals: What to Watch Now While he downplays the predictive power of investor sentiment, Ritholtz monitors: Three-month moving averages of non-farm payrolls Rounded tops in S&P earnings trends Residential real estate supply conditions in key metros Dollar strength (as a proxy for confidence and capital flows) “If the dollar keeps falling and supply starts rising in housing markets, it’s time to pay attention.” Dollar, Debt, and the Doomsayers Ritholtz is blunt about the debt debate. He finds most public discourse alarmist and often wrong. With the U.S. still enjoying reserve currency privileges, he sees no imminent collapse but warns against complacency. “We’ve been hearing the deficit will destroy America for 50 years. It hasn’t. But bad policy could.” He is more concerned with underinvestment in infrastructure and human capital than with rising debt levels per se. Closing Counsel for Investors For those sitting on fresh capital, say $1 million, Ritholtz advises: Clarify your goals (retirement, education, housing). Max out tax-advantaged accounts. Build a core of low-cost index exposure. Don’t chase alpha before securing beta. Avoid overcomplexity: “Two dozen funds is not a portfolio.” His parting message? Discipline beats prediction. And humility is a superpower. Final Thought “Everyone is faking it to some degree. The real danger isn’t what you don’t know – it’s not knowing what you don’t know.” In an age of volatility and noise, Ritholtz’s framework stands out: stay informed, stay skeptical, and invest like risk is real – because it is. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Bracing for the Real Estate Bang
06/10/2025
Bracing for the Real Estate Bang
The Looming Crisis Few Want to Confront Paul Daneshrad, CEO of StarPoint Properties and author of Money and Morons, is sounding the alarm: the United States is barreling toward a sovereign debt reckoning – and real estate professionals are not nearly prepared. Citing economists Reinhart and Rogoff, along with voices as diverse as Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell, and Ray Dalio, Daneshrad warns that the U.S. has not only crossed the 100% debt-to-GDP threshold, widely viewed as a critical danger zone, but has kept accelerating. "We're at 120 to 140% on-balance-sheet," he notes. "If you include off-balance-sheet liabilities, we're at 300%." While the exact timing of the crisis is unknowable, Daneshrad argues that its inevitability is not. “It’s not a question of if – it’s when.” Politics, Populism, and Normalcy Bias Daneshrad is quick to dismiss the conventional partisan narrative. The deficit is no longer a left-right issue, it’s a bipartisan affliction. Both political parties, he argues, are fueling structural imbalances. Worse, the electorate, while voicing concern, refuses to vote for hard choices. This disconnect is the heart of his book’s provocative title: Money and Morons. “86% of Americans say they’re worried about the debt,” he says. “But they won’t vote for politicians willing to solve it, because that solution involves pain.” The result is what psychologists call “normalcy bias” – an instinct to ignore looming threats and retreat into the comfort of the familiar. Fixed-Rate Fortresses: Real Estate’s First Line of Defense If the debt crisis triggers hyperinflation and a spike in interest rates, as Daneshrad expects, the implications for real estate will be seismic. His response? Radical preparation. StarPoint has already begun shifting its portfolio into 20+ year fixed-rate debt and is moving toward 30-year structures. “It’s painful. It’s more expensive. But if the crisis comes in eight years, and you’ve got two years left on a 10-year loan, you’re vulnerable.” He emphasizes that this is not a fringe view. “Even Powell, whose mandate doesn’t include the deficit, felt compelled to warn the public. That’s how serious it is.” Deleveraging with Purpose Debt levels at StarPoint are also coming down – fast. The firm is targeting 40% leverage, down from a peak of 70%. They currently sit at 54%, and the journey continues. The rationale is clear: when interest rates jump from 6% to 15%, the re-pricing of real estate will be brutal. “That’s trillions in lost value,” says Daneshrad. “You have to de-risk now.” The Forgotten Asset: Cash Cash, often derided for its lack of yield in boom times, plays a central role in Daneshrad’s playbook. “The Rockefellers, Kennedys, Guggenheims – they had cash when it mattered. They bought at two cents on the dollar.” Berkshire Hathaway’s record cash holdings reinforce this strategy. “Buffett sees limited opportunity right now and high risk. That should tell you something.” Daneshrad recommends targeting cash reserves as a percentage of either AUM or annual free cash flow, steadily building them over time. "Public companies get punished for it. Private firms like ours have more flexibility and we’re using it." Why He’s Not Buying (Yet) Despite market dislocation, Daneshrad says StarPoint is mostly sitting on the sidelines. Cap rate spreads don’t justify the risk, and few deals offer the deep value he’s targeting. “We’re looking for rebound plays where sellers are on their third buyer and need certainty of close. That’s where the discounts are. But those opportunities are rare.” Asked whether the mispricing stems from short-term underwriting or optimism bias, he shrugs. “We’ve flooded the system with liquidity. Asset prices are artificially propped up.” Diversification and the Limits of Real Estate Daneshrad is not betting the farm on U.S. real estate. He’s pursuing modest geographic diversification abroad and expanding into non-real estate asset classes. “Historically, real estate hedges inflation well but a debt crisis changes everything.” He’s candid about the difficulty: “We’re not that smart. Timing a crisis is hard. But we can prepare for one.” The Aging America Conundrum One of the more nuanced points Daneshrad raises is the intersection of demography and fiscal sustainability. Aging, he agrees, is inevitable. But the care infrastructure it requires is not financially supported. “The trustees for Social Security and Medicare, not politicians, say the funds go bankrupt in under ten years. That’s $90 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities.” Senior housing? “A great idea if the elderly can pay. But with savings rates at historic lows, I’m not optimistic.” Market Signals That Matter Daneshrad watches for three early signs of crisis: A gradual rise in interest rates – not driven by Fed hikes but by market demands for higher risk premiums. Breakdown of the flight-to-safety dynamic – if equities fall but bond yields rise, that’s a red flag. The ‘bang moment’ – as coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, when confidence evaporates overnight. As Hemingway once said about bankruptcy, it happens "gradually, then suddenly." What He’d Do with $1 Million Today If handed an extra million in cash, Daneshrad says he’d hold 80% in cash and invest the rest. “Protect the capital. Diversify over multiple asset classes. Liquidity is opportunity.” Final Word Paul Daneshrad’s message is sobering but clear: “Protect. Prepare. Don’t pretend.” He doesn’t claim to predict the future. But if you accept the warnings from the smartest voices in finance and economics, the case for defensive posturing is overwhelming. And if they’re wrong? You lose a few basis points. But if they’re right you survive the bang. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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The Crash You Won’t See Coming — Because It’s Already Started
06/05/2025
The Crash You Won’t See Coming — Because It’s Already Started
The Real Estate Cycle: A Warning for 2026 Insights from Phil Anderson on the Coming Real Estate Market Crash In my conversation with renowned economist Phil Anderson, you will gain unprecedented insight into the mechanics of real estate cycles and why we are right on the precipice of the next major real estate market crash. Anderson, author of "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking," presents a compelling case that combines economic theory with historical precedent to paint a picture of where we stand today – and where we’re headed tomorrow. The Foundation: Understanding Economic Rent The Law That Economics Forgot To understand the thesis, here’s a powerful analogy: just as we accept the law of gravity dictates that a dropped pencil will fall to the ground, there exists an equally immutable economic law that has been largely forgotten. Anderson calls this the "law of economic rent" and it’s the principle that all of society's gains and benefits will ultimately gravitate toward land prices. This fundamental concept explains why we experience predictable real estate cycles. When society allows land earnings to capitalize into prices (typically representing 20 years of earnings), and banks are permitted to extend credit based on those inflated prices, a real estate cycle crash becomes inevitable. It's not a possibility – it's a mathematical certainty. The Erasure of Land from Economics Anderson reveals a crucial historical shift that occurred after World War I. Prior to 1907, economists universally recognized three factors of production: labor, capital, and land. However, as land reform movements gained momentum and threatened established interests, there was a deliberate effort to remove land from economic textbooks entirely. Today's economists learn only about labor and capital, treating land as merely another form of capital. This fundamental misunderstanding, Anderson argues, is why virtually no mainstream economists saw the 2008 financial crisis coming, nor will they recognize the signs of the coming downturn. The Cycle Mechanics: Why 18-20 Years? Historical Reliability The 18-20 year real estate cycle has been remarkably consistent throughout American history, documented back to 1800. Anderson traces this pattern through every major economic downturn: the 1920s, early 1970s, 1991, and 2008. In each case, the proximate cause wasn't what most economists claimed – it was the deflation of land prices. The current cycle began in 2012, marking the bottom of the last downturn. We are now in year 13 of the cycle, approaching the critical 14-year mark that historically signals the beginning of the end. Here’s how it works: The Anatomy of a Cycle Anderson explains that real estate cycles run like this: The cycle is 18.6 years on average - "14 years up and 4 years down" 2012 was the bottom - Land prices peaked in 2006-2007, then had approximately 4 years down to the 2012 bottom 2026 is the projected peak - As Anderson states: "14 years up from there [2012] takes you to 2026. It really is that simple." We're currently in year 13 - From 2012 bottom + 13 years = 2025, approaching the 14-year peak in 2026 Years 13-14 are the "Winner's Curse" - The final speculative phase when "animal spirits are truly unleashed." Current Position in the Cycle This precise timing explains why Anderson identifies us as being in "the last couple of years of the cycle." All the current signals he observes - housing stocks rolling over, banking deregulation beginning, frenzied speculation in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency - point to our approach toward the 2026 peak rather than suggesting we've already arrived there. The critical insight is that we're in the dangerous final speculation phase right now. We're experiencing what Anderson calls the "Winner's Curse" period of years 13-14, when speculation reaches fever pitch and "animal spirits are truly unleashed." The peak is expected in 2026, which would then trigger the inevitable 4-year down phase running from 2026-2030. This timeline explains why Anderson emphasizes the urgency of preparation - we're not looking at some distant future event, but rather a cyclical turning point that's rapidly approaching and may have already begun. Presidential Patterns: The Republican Connection A Striking Historical Correlation One of Anderson's most intriguing observations concerns presidential politics. Since Abraham Lincoln's era, every final phase of a real estate cycle has coincided with a Republican president taking office. These aren't coincidences but reflect the political dynamics that emerge during speculative bubbles. Anderson notes the historical bookend: George Washington, the first president and America's largest landowner at the time, and now Donald Trump, the 47th president and a prominent real estate developer, both representing the connection between land ownership and political power. The Deregulation Imperative Following a predictable pattern, Republican administrations at cycle peaks immediately begin dismantling banking regulations. Anderson emphasizes this isn't partisan commentary but historical observation: "The very first thing they do is get rid of all bank regulation." This deregulation serves a specific function in the cycle – it allows banks to engage in the aggressive lending that characterizes the final speculative phase, ultimately setting the stage for the inevitable crash. Current Signals: Reading the Tea Leaves Housing Stocks as Leading Indicators Anderson employs the analytical methods of legendary trader W.D. Gann to read market signals. Housing stocks – companies like Lennar, Toll Brothers, and D.R. Horton – serve as the canary in the coal mine. These stocks historically peak 1-2 years before the broader market, as analysts recognize that rising land costs will eventually squeeze builder profits. During a brief banking scare in early 2023, while some worried about contagion, housing stocks actually made new highs - but have since peaked and rolled over and are now trending downward – a classic signal that the cycle is approaching its peak. The Dollar Dilemma For the first time in American history, we may face a scenario where the Federal Reserve cannot lower interest rates during a recession. This stems from growing concerns about the U.S. federal deficit and potential challenges to the dollar's reserve currency status. Anderson explains that while other countries have often faced this constraint – they cannot simply print money to solve problems – America has enjoyed "exorbitant privilege" of the dollar. However, current policies may be eroding international confidence in U.S. fiscal responsibility. The Speculation Frenzy: Bitcoin and Beyond Modern Manifestations of Ancient Patterns Every cycle's final phase features a speculative vehicle that captures public imagination. In the 1960s, it was oil and Boeing 747s. In the 1980s, real estate itself. In 2005-2007, it was mortgage-backed securities and subprime lending. Today's vehicle appears to be cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin. Anderson points to concerning developments like MicroStrategy's strategy of borrowing money to buy Bitcoin, which supports the stock price, enabling more borrowing for more Bitcoin – a classic pyramid structure. The involvement of political figures in similar cryptocurrency ventures only amplifies the speculative fervor that characterizes cycle peaks. The Psychology of Peaks Anderson describes the cycle as behaving like "a living entity" that must draw absolutely everyone in before it can peak. The market cannot top until there's no more money or credit available – until everyone is "all in." This psychological dynamic explains why peaks often coincide with maximum optimism and minimum skepticism. Strategic Positioning: Preparing for the Inevitable The Million-Dollar Question When asked how he would deploy $1 million today, Anderson's advice reflects the cycle's current stage: Immediate Actions: Keep funds liquid and in banks rather than rushing into investments Avoid taking on additional debt, especially at potentially rising interest rates Prepare for property values to decline 20% or more Positioning for Opportunity: Maintain an exemplary financial profile to secure credit during the downturn Prepare to be a buyer when others are forced sellers Focus on cash preservation and credit access rather than current yields Timeline Expectations Based on historical patterns, Anderson expects the downturn to begin around 2026, with the bottom likely occurring around 2031-2032 (years ending in "1" have historically marked recession bottoms in America). This suggests a 4-6 year period of adjustment, similar to the 2008-2012 cycle, presenting significant opportunities for those positioned correctly. Implications for Commercial Real Estate Reading Between the Lines For commercial real estate professionals, Anderson's analysis suggests several critical considerations: Traditional metrics like cap rates, rent projections, and employment growth may be misleading at this cycle stage. The fundamental driver – land values – is approaching a cyclical peak that transcends these conventional indicators. The deregulation of banking, combined with potential Federal Reserve constraints, could create a uniquely challenging environment for real estate financing. Unlike previous cycles, the usual monetary policy responses may not be available. The Contrarian Opportunity While Anderson's analysis paints a sobering picture of the near-term outlook, it also illuminates tremendous opportunity for those who understand and prepare for the cycle. The next 2-3 years may offer the last chances to position defensively before the inevitable adjustment. The key insight is that real estate cycles are not random events but predictable phenomena driven by fundamental economic laws. Those who understand these patterns can navigate them successfully, while those who ignore them risk being caught unprepared when the cycle turns. Anderson's message is ultimately one of empowerment through knowledge: understand the cycle, respect its power, and position accordingly. The pencil will fall – the only question is whether you'll be ready when it does. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Real Estate's Margin for Error is Gone
06/04/2025
Real Estate's Margin for Error is Gone
The Margin of Error Has Vanished: What CRE Investors Should Be Watching Now Commentary on a conversation with John Chang, Senior Vice President and National Director, Research and Advisory Services, Marcus & Millichap The New CRE Investment Mandate: Survive First, Then Thrive “The margin of error has narrowed to virtually zero.” This was John Chang’s stark assessment of today’s commercial real estate environment – an era marked by fragile capital markets, rising Treasury yields, policy instability, and speculative hangovers from a decade of cheap money. According to Chang, the headline playbook hasn’t changed: keep leverage low, maintain reserves, underwrite for downside. But the stakes have changed. What used to be prudent is now required. Those who forget that, particularly those lulled by the long post-GFC bull run, risk extinction. Cap Rates, Treasury Yields, and the Compressed Spread A central theme of our conversation is the vanishing spread between borrowing costs and asset yields. Cap rates have risen 100–200 bps depending on asset class and geography, but Treasury rates have risen more. That’s compressed spreads, rendering most acquisitions reliant on a value-creation story or an eventual rate reversal. Investors are still transacting, says Chang, but only if they believe they can bridge the spread gap through operational improvements i.e. leasing, renovation, management upgrades. Passive cap-rate arbitrage is no longer viable. “The potential for something to go wrong is high,” Chang warns, especially in a policy environment that remains erratic. The Treasury Market’s Imminent Supply Shock Chang outlines why he expects upward pressure on Treasury yields for the balance of the year – contrary to the market's general expectations of rate cuts. Key reasons: Federal Deficits: With a delayed budget, Treasury issuance has been running below historical norms. That’s about to reverse, with $1–1.5 trillion in supply expected by October. Shrinking Buyer Base: The Fed is reducing its balance sheet. Foreign holders, especially China and Japan, are net sellers. Even traditional allies are showing less appetite, driven partly by frictions over U.S. trade policy. Trade Tensions: Tariffs of up to 145% on imports from China, EU saber-rattling, and a broad retreat from globalization are alienating the very buyers of U.S. debt. “People don’t want to do us any favors right now,” Chang says. “That uncertainty alone elevates risk premiums.” Normalcy Bias and the Myth of the Perpetual Up Cycle Chang pulls no punches on the market psychology underpinning risky underwriting in recent years. He describes a bifurcated investor landscape: Those who entered post-GFC and think 2–3% interest rates and infinite rent growth are normal. Veterans of the 1990s S&L crisis, the dot-com bust, or the GFC, who know better. What’s striking is the lack of long-term data. Even Marcus & Millichap, he notes, only has robust CRE data going back to 2000. Without context, many have mistaken the tailwind-fueled 2010s as a standard baseline. “We’re back to old-world real estate,” Chang says. “Where you have to actually understand the property, the tenant mix, the microeconomics of location. The era of pure financial engineering is over.” Lessons from the Pandemic and GFC: Underwrite for Downside, Not for Hype Chang recounts closing on an investment in April 2020 at the very onset of pandemic uncertainty. “What if we rent at breakeven?” he asked. If the answer was yes, he proceeded. That conservative approach worked then and still applies today. The biggest blow-ups, he says, came from sponsors who: Modeled double-digit rent growth. Over-leveraged. Used floating-rate debt without hedges. Ignored capex and reserves. By contrast, Chang praises sponsors who locked in fixed debt, kept leverage under 65%, and stayed humble. “They’re embarrassed to be earning 7% IRRs,” he jokes, “but in this climate, that’s a win.” Washout in the Syndication Space: Good Riddance? Perhaps most damning is Chang’s commentary on the wave of underqualified syndicators who entered during the boom years. “Thousands came in with no operating experience,” he says, pointing to the proliferation of coaching programs offering checklists instead of expertise. These new entrants mimicked industry language – AUM figures, fund manager titles – but often had no institutional track record or risk management skills. Many of them, Chang believes, are now out or on their way out. And while some may return with hard-earned wisdom, he expects the flow of “tourists” into the syndication world to dry up for the foreseeable future. Tailwinds Still Exist: But Only for the Well-Prepared Despite the short-term risks, Chang sees multiple long-term tailwinds: Demographics: Millennials are delaying homeownership, renting into their 40s and fueling demand for multifamily. Inflation Resistance: Assets like multifamily, self-storage, and even select retail have pricing power in inflationary environments. Constrained Supply: Rising costs (e.g., lumber, steel tariffs) are slowing new construction, which will support existing asset values over time. He also flags tax policy as a positive surprise: The “BBB” tax bill, now working its way through the House, offers accelerated depreciation and expansion of Opportunity Zones particularly in rural areas. This could buoy returns in an otherwise challenging environment. On the Aging of America: A Selective Case for Healthcare-Adjacent Assets Chang views medical office and senior housing through a bifurcated lens: Medical office: Attractive if tenants are stable, young, or anchored by heavy equipment. Long leases. Minimal turnover. Durable income. Assisted living: Demographic tailwinds are real, but operators matter more than ever. The Achilles heel? Labor. “About 30% of healthcare workers in the U.S. are foreign-born,” he warns. “And immigration policy, especially under restrictive regimes, will constrain the labor supply.” No staff, no NOI. Final Signals: What He’s Watching Closely If you want to forecast CRE performance, Chang suggests watching: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A leading indicator of retail sales and housing trends. Currently falling. Inflation-adjusted Retail Sales: Shows how real consumption is holding up. Trade Policy & Supreme Court Rulings: The potential invalidation of Trump-era tariffs could reset inflation and Treasury outlooks but introduces a new kind of uncertainty. “We’re not facing one black swan,” he concludes. “We’re facing a whole flock. Pick your bird.” Bottom Line This is not a time for heroic assumptions. It's a time for competence, humility, and discipline. If you must deploy capital, do so with sponsors who have been through a major downturn GFC style, and focus on those who didn’t make capital calls, who still generate yield, and who underwrite to reality, not to hope. The next 2–3 years may be rocky. But the long term still belongs to those who survive the short term. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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Real Estate's #1 Rule: Don't Lose Money!
06/02/2025
Real Estate's #1 Rule: Don't Lose Money!
Leyla Kunimoto brings a rare and unfiltered perspective to today’s commercial real estate conversation: that of a full-time individual LP who writes publicly about her investment decisions. She’s not a sponsor, a capital raiser, or a fund manager; she’s an investor allocating her own capital and speaking candidly about what she sees in the market. Through her newsletter Accredited Investor Insights, Leyla connects with hundreds of other LPs and GPs, giving her a uniquely well-informed view of how sentiment is shifting, how sponsors are adapting (or not), and why many individual investors, herself included, are taking a more cautious, capital-preserving stance in the current environment. Track Records Are the New Credentials Leyla made one thing immediately clear in my conversation with her: experience across market cycles matters more than ever. Sponsors who lived through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and made it out intact, view the world differently. “There’s a certain level of conservatism they develop,” she said, that translates into more disciplined underwriting, more thoughtful pacing, and fewer emotionally driven decisions. This stands in sharp contrast to what Leyla observed in 2020, when billboards at Dallas airports advertised real estate masterminds promising to teach people how to raise capital fast. She watched sponsors pile into deals with razor-thin margins, driven more by optimism than fundamentals. Some of those same players are now facing tough questions from investors. Tariffs Are Already Affecting CRE in Two Big Ways While many LPs focus on interest rates, Leyla highlighted tariffs as a macro driver that’s beginning to affect commercial real estate, particularly in development. First, tariffs are raising costs on imported materials, like lumber, pushing construction budgets higher. Second, she’s watching what tariffs could mean for demand in the industrial sector. “If trade with Mexico declines, what happens to logistics facilities near the border?” she asked. Conversely, if reshoring takes off, we may see demand rise for inland warehouse space. It’s a nuanced picture and one that sponsors in ground-up deals can’t afford to ignore. Equity Is Cautious. Retail Capital Is Now in Play. Another shift Leyla is tracking is on the capital side. Institutional equity has pulled back in many corners of the market, and some sponsors are turning to retail LPs for the first time. But this isn’t an easy pivot. “Retail investors are expensive to reach,” she said. They also tend to ask more questions – and now, they’re more skeptical. Many LPs are sitting on deals that aren’t performing. As a result, the bar for new allocations is much higher. “There’s a sense of caution,” she noted. “LPs aren’t allocating blindly anymore.” Floating Rate Debt Divides the Market Leyla sees a bifurcated sponsor landscape: those who are still dealing with the aftermath of floating-rate debt, and those who have the capital and flexibility to transact but can’t find deals that pencil. Sponsors with legacy floating-rate loans are focused on rate caps and marginal cash flow. They’re rooting for the Fed to cut rates. Others are hunting for acquisitions, but the math isn’t working. “Without aggressive assumptions, most deals don’t pencil,” she said. The IRR Illusion: What LPs Should Actually Be Watching Many sponsors still lead with IRR projections, but Leyla has shifted her mindset. “I don’t screen for how much money I’m going to make. I don’t screen for the IRR probability,” she told me, “the only thing I’m laser beam focused on when I evaluate private placement deals is the probability of losing money.” That loss-aversion lens changes everything. She believes LPs are better off compounding modest, positive returns over time than chasing double-digit IRRs that come with a real chance of loss. “Making 3-4% positive IRR for 10 years straight outperforms hitting 20% on some deals and going to zero on others,” she said. Stress Tests Are Private. Optimism Is Public. Behind closed doors, sponsors are more conservative than they let on, she says. The real pros run multiple models – best, worst, and most likely scenarios. “I always ask for stress test scenarios underwritten to the GFC,” she says, continuing that she used to hear sponsors saying such scenarios were never going to play out because the underwriting is too stringent. “I’m hearing a little bit less of that now,” she says. Still, she’s skeptical of any deck that doesn’t acknowledge the possibility of a rent decline. Of course deals won’t pencil if you underwrite to a 10% rent drop but, in some markets, that’s exactly what’s happening. Cash Is a Position. Waiting Is a Strategy. When I asked what she’d do if handed a $1 million windfall today, Leyla didn’t hesitate: “I’d keep it in cash and I would try to get very narrow on what my buy box is,” not because she’s fearful but because she wants to be surgical when she deploys. She encourages LPs to be patient and wait for opportunities that fit tight criteria. In an environment where you can make 4.5%+ tax and risk-free, “there’s no harm in waiting,” she says. She also shared stories of seasoned sponsors that sold early, sat in cash through the entire 2021 run-up, and are still waiting because they can’t find deals that pencil – that are still too expensive for prudent investors. What Leyla’s Watching Now Leyla doesn’t try to predict markets. But she does monitor signals: The 10-Year Treasury yield Local supply pipelines Investor sentiment from her network of LPs And her biggest piece of advice? Focus on not losing money. That alone will make you a better investor. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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How to Survive the Coming Real Estate Storm
05/30/2025
How to Survive the Coming Real Estate Storm
How to Survive the Coming Real Estate Storm – What Sean Kelly-Rand Learned at Lehman For the experienced real estate investor or sponsor, this is a masterclass in what really matters. When Lehman Brothers unraveled in 2008, it exposed a truth that many in the real estate world still prefer to ignore: even the most sophisticated capital structures can implode when the cost of capital and access to liquidity are misunderstood – or worse, taken for granted. My podcast/YouTube show guest today, Sean Kelly-Rand, didn’t just watch that collapse unfold; he lived through it from inside and the playbook he uses today as the managing partner of RD Advisors is shaped, in part, by that early, formative experience. His approach offers a deeply pragmatic framework for anyone navigating real estate in today’s uncertain climate. In an era of overpromised alpha and fragile capital stacks, Kelly-Rand's doctrine is a study in restraint, structure, and staying power. From the Heart of Lehman to the Edges of Risk Kelly-Rand joined Lehman Brothers in 2006, just before the implosion, drawn by its dominance in the bond markets which he saw, even then, as the true engine behind real estate. While most looked to equity investment banks for leadership, he understood that the debt markets were where real decisions were made. His work centered on real estate financing and syndication, with a front-row view of a business model that was, in hindsight, structurally doomed. Lehman’s capital stack had been stretched too far – built on short-term funding to support long-term positions. As the firm accumulated assets, expanding its real estate exposure from $5 billion to over $36 billion, it did so with virtually no cushion. Liquidity was cheap and ubiquitous, but inherently unstable. When securitization markets seized up, those long-term assets could not be offloaded without catastrophic discounts to book value. And because any sale would have forced a full repricing of the entire book, no sale could be tolerated. Lehman was stuck – and the system broke. That lesson remains central to Kelly-Rand’s thinking today. The real issue wasn’t the quality of the assets; it was the fragility of the structure behind them. Risk wasn’t in the deal. It was in the funding. Rebuilding from the Ground Up In the years that followed, Kelly-Rand transitioned from the institutional capital markets to operating in the private lending space. He co-founded RD Advisors not just to chase yield, but also to build a firm capable of weathering downside scenarios – starting with a clean-sheet design of its capital strategy. The fund today focuses exclusively on senior secured debt, kept short in duration and conservatively underwritten. The business avoids the artificial stability of interest reserves or payment-in-kind structures that mask actual performance. Instead, it emphasizes cash-paying borrowers and short-term duration to preserve optionality and liquidity. Leverage is kept modest by design, with loan-to-value ratios structured around exit values that tolerate declining markets. Crucially, every deal is evaluated with a focus on capital preservation. Underwriting is done not with optimism, but with contingency: would the fund be comfortable owning the asset if they had to should a borrower walk? If the answer is anything but a clear yes, the deal doesn’t proceed. This mentality isn’t just prudent, it’s essential. The goal is to never rely on someone else’s execution for one’s own capital security. And that institutional memory from the GFC sits the core of the process. Avoiding the Illusion of Alpha Much of what passes for outperformance in today’s real estate environment is simply leverage in disguise. Sponsors show high IRRs, but beneath them is a capital structure dependent on favorable refis or asset appreciation that may no longer be achievable. That’s not skill, it’s exposure. Kelly-Rand’s fund’s returns, by contrast, are deliberately boring. They are stable, predictable, and quarterly. It’s a feature, not a bug. In fact, Kelly-Rand views volatility as a symptom of poor underwriting or misaligned structure, not a badge of aggressive performance. He’s wary, too, of the growing interest in ‘loan-to-own’ strategies, particularly among opportunistic capital looking to buy defaulted notes in the hopes of acquiring assets at a discount. While technically accurate – private credit can convert into equity when things go wrong – he emphasizes that building a business around that premise introduces operational complexity, execution risk, and volatility that neither he nor his investors are seeking. Today’s Market Echoes the Last Crisis What concerns Kelly-Rand most now is how little has changed in institutional behavior since the last crisis – and how closely today’s market echoes that of 2007. There is the same creeping complacency in the banking system. Institutions are holding loans at par that would clear far below face value if sold today. Marking one loan down would trigger writedowns across the portfolio, and many banks simply can’t handle that. Instead, they hold and wait, even as rates rise and deposits become more expensive than the loans on their books. This, too, is unsustainable and, like last time, it's a question not of credit risk, but of duration mismatch and funding fragility. Depositors have not yet realized en masse that their money could be earning 4.5% elsewhere. But when they do, the cost of capital for banks could spike rapidly and the system isn’t ready. Worse still, foreign capital, the marginal buyer that has helped sustain U.S. real estate valuations for decades, may be losing interest. If geopolitical or currency instability weakens demand for U.S. treasuries or assets, long-term rates could drift higher, even if the Fed cuts short-term rates. That shift would have a profound impact on real estate pricing, permanently resetting cap-rate expectations – and values. A Framework for the Informed Investor The takeaway for sponsors and investors is stark but empowering: you don’t need to predict the next crash, but you must be structurally prepared for it. Kelly-Rand’s fund is an expression of that principle. It’s structured to be resilient, not just profitable. Its margins are modest but consistent. Its leverage is low by design. And its underwriting focuses on the downside – not because of fear, but because of discipline. His experience at Lehman Brothers gave him a visceral understanding of how quickly capital evaporates when confidence is lost. What makes his insights so valuable today is not just that he’s survived a cycle but that he’s operationalized that survival into a repeatable, durable framework. In a world where risk is increasingly hidden behind optimism and spreadsheets, Sean Kelly-Rand offers a different kind of edge: memory. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: Call: 213-761-1000
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