The Rate Guy
The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.
info_outline
15 Years Flies When You're Having Fun
04/29/2024
15 Years Flies When You're Having Fun
Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team. If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 32 minute mark. Thanks to everyone for your support. Here's to the next 15!
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/31029163
info_outline
Premature Pivot 2.0
04/22/2024
Premature Pivot 2.0
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending. Check out the for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite Site. Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30931338
info_outline
Premature Pivot
04/15/2024
Premature Pivot
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact. For those that want to check out more about SF Fed official Adam Shapiro's graph illustrating demand vs supply components of inflation... To view the graphs referenced, check out the latest .
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30825328
info_outline
Labor Market Strength or Just Different?
04/08/2024
Labor Market Strength or Just Different?
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE! We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Chief U.S. Economist could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about job openings versus unemployment. We explore Fed Chair Powell's latest comments, the role of immigration and part-time work in today's economy, and the looming question: Is the current economic strength sustainable or just a sugar rush from stimulus spending? To check out the graphs referenced, read the .
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30728133
info_outline
I Change My Mind
04/01/2024
I Change My Mind
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong. Want to read as well? Check out his .
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30622018
info_outline
Fed Primer
03/18/2024
Fed Primer
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We’ll break down this week’s keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we’re setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we’re at and where we might be heading. Want to subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter? - Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 21st, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30417818
info_outline
Lies, Damned Lies and Jobs
03/11/2024
Lies, Damned Lies and Jobs
For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't seen since the financial crisis) To read the newsletter in all it's graph laden glory click
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30319073
info_outline
Bunch of BLS
03/03/2024
Bunch of BLS
On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30208958
info_outline
January Data A Trend Does Not Make
02/26/2024
January Data A Trend Does Not Make
On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation. We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data. To subscribe to JP's weekly Pensford newsletter, click
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30108588
info_outline
CPI - WTF?
02/18/2024
CPI - WTF?
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/30002198
info_outline
Lower But Slower
02/12/2024
Lower But Slower
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landscape, analyze financial indicators, and assess the implications of tightening banking standards and global disinflation trends.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/29903403
info_outline
Houston, We Have A Liquidity Problem
02/05/2024
Houston, We Have A Liquidity Problem
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP shares an experience from his first day on the Wachovia trading floor, highlighting the stress of betting $5 when you have $2 in your pocket. We discuss the impact of large Treasury issuances and the Fed's balance sheet reduction, the Treasury's new buyback program, and the effects of the Term Funding Program's conclusion on bank liquidity and Treasury investments. Then we look ahead to fewer data points this week, but numerous Fed speeches that may impact rates. To read more or to see graphs check out the Pensford Newsletter : https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/houston-we-have-a-liquidity-problem
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/29802623
info_outline
Have The Banks Brushed Their Teeth This Morning?
01/29/2024
Have The Banks Brushed Their Teeth This Morning?
On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw an interesting parallel between the challenges of parenting and the Federal Reserve's decision to end the Bank Term Funding Program. We analyze the latest inflation data, discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and the rationale behind what the Fed might do next.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/29687188
info_outline
Treasurys Don't Always Fall When The Fed Cuts
01/22/2024
Treasurys Don't Always Fall When The Fed Cuts
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP stays on brand taking jabs at the NFL's latest dramas, with a special nod to the Cowboys' decisions that bring him so much joy. We analyze the latest on treasury rates, Fed-speak, and what consumer sentiment reports reveal about inflation expectations. We also take a look at potential inflation scenarios and what they may mean for our economy.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/29590658
info_outline
The Fed Could Cut in March, But Why Would They
01/15/2024
The Fed Could Cut in March, But Why Would They
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/29490848
info_outline
Fool Me 13x, Shame On Me
01/08/2024
Fool Me 13x, Shame On Me
Happy 2024! On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about last week's jobs reports and the impact that is going to have on Fed policy this year, a few fun facts around jobs reports, like how many we need to add each month to keep pace with population growth and we explain a possible reason for the consistent monthly revisions that we're seeing.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/29385558
info_outline
Pivot Party!
12/18/2023
Pivot Party!
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP lists his lead pipe locks for 2024...spoiler alert, there's no such thing as a soft landing and we will have a recession. We also take a look back at his lead pipe lock predictions for 2023 and grade him on how those panned out.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/29126073
info_outline
Inflation Data Should Confirm The Fed Is Done
11/27/2023
Inflation Data Should Confirm The Fed Is Done
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss some alarming data about consumer behavior, inflation expectations, what to look for in this week's inflation data and possible good news for interest rate caps.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/28797683
info_outline
No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys
11/13/2023
No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys
This episode of The Rate Guy Podcast is titled, "No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys". We had a better title, but Harbaugh stole it. (You know JP can't resist making some digs) This week we discuss the latest headlines about China selling Treasurys. The reasons they would sell, why they wouldn't sell and we get an expert's take on what the global data REALLY looks like. Thanks Brad! This is graph heavy, so you may want to check out the to view them and the amazing photoshop job of Harbaugh as a Pulp Fiction character. This podcast is chalk full of JP angst, Chicago sirens and data that may leave you questioning the headlines. Link to Brad Setser's .
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/28613108
info_outline
What the 2024 Rate Cutting Cycle Might Look Like
11/06/2023
What the 2024 Rate Cutting Cycle Might Look Like
On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thread to emerge from the flurry of Fed speeches lined up this week—we'll tell you what we think that will be. As promised, Ken/Barbie photo, the Sphere ad and the Birth/Death graph. Birth Death adjustments continue their suspicious upward trend. Remember, this is the government’s estimate of jobs created out of the “birth or death” of businesses…but it’s a total guess. Is it weird to anyone else that this fudge factor keeps going up month to month? We are becoming overly reliant on this estimate to maintain positive job gains so the headlines can scream “tight labor market!”
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/28526588
info_outline
2 GOATs, 1 Week
10/30/2023
2 GOATs, 1 Week
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about GOATs, in sports, in comedy...in interest rates. We also analyze economic conditions and determine which inflation cycle fromt the past are we repeating and why, this week's Fed meeting, how governtment spending is impacting treasury yields, and the biggest contributing factors to a 5% 10Y Treasury and what will need to happen for it to move back toward 4%.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/28459796
info_outline
I Quit
10/10/2023
I Quit
On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast, we dive into the "gangbuster" jobs report and what details to pay attention to in this week's inflation data. Curious about the Fed's game plan and how it might impact 2024 rates? We've got some theories...but definitely not the conspiracy kind! Numbers reference if the podcast. For more info check out the .
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/28274705
info_outline
Inflation Is Already at 2%
10/02/2023
Inflation Is Already at 2%
On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs report and more importantly, JP will get his JOLTS report that he so loves! If you missed our Q3 Interest Rate webinar here is the link!
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/28197587
info_outline
Inflation Hammocking
09/18/2023
Inflation Hammocking
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, Inflation trends, the influence of foreign central banks on the 10 Year Treasury and JP creates the seamingly impossible parallel between economic conditions and prime time tv. We have our quarterly webinar this Thursday! Register here : For graphs referenced : https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/inflation-hammocking
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/28063341
info_outline
Inflation Falling Like the Bengals Super Bowl Odds
09/11/2023
Inflation Falling Like the Bengals Super Bowl Odds
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the unexpected outcome of the Texas vs. Bama game and take a look at the job market nuances and how they are coming up with the data that The Fed is so dependent on. We also talk about this week's anticipated inflation data and its implications.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/27997365
info_outline
Labor Day Labor Update
09/04/2023
Labor Day Labor Update
On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/27939933
info_outline
Why Are We Using The Stars To Navigate?
08/28/2023
Why Are We Using The Stars To Navigate?
On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and economic insights, as JP weaves it all together to challenge some traditional views on monetary policy. Links Referenced: 1. The research paper itself: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2787193 2. The indices they created as a result of the research: https://sites.psu.edu/inflation/ Graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter on the homepage under "Latest Newsletter" https://www.pensford.com/
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/27866397
info_outline
The Tightening Will Continue Until Morale Improves!
08/14/2023
The Tightening Will Continue Until Morale Improves!
On this episode of The Rate Guys Podcast we dissect San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's views on inflation and rate hikes. With modest Core CPI increases, is the Fed truly data-driven? Delve into inflation dynamics, housing costs, and global economic markers, like China's CPI. We explore market forecasts and debate the Fed's next steps: will the tightening actually continue to 'improve morale'? For graphs referenced check out the .
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/27745062
info_outline
CPI Will Go Up This Week - Flippa Inte Ut
08/07/2023
CPI Will Go Up This Week - Flippa Inte Ut
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the bias for higher rates, last week's labor report, the lesser talked about underemployment rate, the outlook for this week's inflation data and a little Swedish lesson delivered beautifully by JP.
/episode/index/show/rateguy/id/27679185