The Rate Guy

The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.

I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning 11/09/2025

I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP’s love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38969190

Quick Fed Meeting Take Aways 10/29/2025

Quick Fed Meeting Take Aways On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead. See you on 11/10! Here is the in the Pensford Newsletter. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38833310

The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026 10/26/2025

The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026 On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA’s “thorough investigation” didn’t find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps and caps. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38784560

What Pushes the 10T to 3.62% 10/19/2025

What Pushes the 10T to 3.62% On this epidode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down this Thursday’s CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it’s full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won’t cut rates at the next meeting. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38638185

The Fed Will Cut Even if the Govt is Still Shut Down 10/13/2025

The Fed Will Cut Even if the Govt is Still Shut Down On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38561375

Introducing the PLS…Pensford Labor Statistics! 10/06/2025

Introducing the PLS…Pensford Labor Statistics! On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen. For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38480960

The Aftermath of the Fed Meeting 09/21/2025

The Aftermath of the Fed Meeting On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38296555

7 Fed Members Thought They Wouldn't Be Cutting This Week 09/15/2025

7 Fed Members Thought They Wouldn't Be Cutting This Week On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed’s credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren’t) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important. As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from our website. https://www.pensford.com/resources/cap-and-floor-pricer /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38221325

Friday's Jobs Report Means The Fed is Already Behind the Curve 09/07/2025

Friday's Jobs Report Means The Fed is Already Behind the Curve On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38119840

The Fed's Real Focus 08/31/2025

The Fed's Real Focus On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed’s watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn’t the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.’s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/38036080

Special Jackson Hole Edition 08/22/2025

Special Jackson Hole Edition On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37927575

Revision Chickens Come Home to Roost 08/03/2025

Revision Chickens Come Home to Roost This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday’s shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We also unpack the growing odds of a rate cut in September, what to watch for in the search for a new Fed Governor, and how this all sets the stage for a chaotic lead-up to Jackson Hole. It’s a week without major data releases, but the calm may not last. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37651545

Put Your Hard Hats On, It's Going to be a Crazy Week 07/27/2025

Put Your Hard Hats On, It's Going to be a Crazy Week We take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?! This week on The Rate Guy, we’re unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond. Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia definitely took a hit. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37568095

Bond Buying Baby 07/14/2025

Bond Buying Baby On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37397720

The Big Beautiful Job Market 07/06/2025

The Big Beautiful Job Market On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025. Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37293905

Wall Street Meet Socialism 06/30/2025

Wall Street Meet Socialism On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37216785

The Uncertainty Bends Continue 06/22/2025

The Uncertainty Bends Continue On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37106385

What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months) 06/15/2025

What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months) On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37017820

Jobs, Schmobs 06/08/2025

Jobs, Schmobs On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn’t reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36908920

The Tail That Wagged The Dog 05/26/2025

The Tail That Wagged The Dog On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36716605

The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues 05/19/2025

The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36622180

Fed Meeting Primer 05/05/2025

Fed Meeting Primer On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin? We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. Mohammed El-Erian said it in the nicest way possible, "Markets are underestimating the depth and duration of this trade reset.” If you want to see the graphs referenced, you can see this week's newsletter . And you can easily . /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36437945

Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview with J Mo 04/27/2025

Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview with J Mo On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36330810

WTF is a Basis Trade Unwind? 04/14/2025

WTF is a Basis Trade Unwind? On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it’s probably not about deficits or de-dollarization. From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP’s career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and reminds us: reducing exposure isn’t the same as betting against the U.S. To check out the graphs referenced - check out the /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36126580

Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln? 04/07/2025

Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln? This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36034905

The Uncertainty Bends 03/24/2025

The Uncertainty Bends This week’s episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability. We unpack: The latest on interest rates and consumer behavior Why sentiment may be flashing recession signals What’s driving economic uncertainty—and how long it could last Also, somehow this marks 5 years of podcasting unfiltered, occasionally accurate, and questionably useful economic insights. Thanks for listening (and surviving) with us! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35834815

Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water? 03/09/2025

Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water? On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think. Here is the that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35596065

DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR 03/02/2025

DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it’s contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it’s just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something we’ll be watching closely. Plus: The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast just fell off a cliff—from 4% growth to -1.5%. The culprit? Tariffs. Job market warning signs: layoffs, spending freezes, and consumer pullback. Treasury yields react post-Eagles Super Bowl win—are we headed back below 4%? It’s all in this week’s episode. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35502410

59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4% 02/23/2025

59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4% On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35393885

If Markets Played in The Superbowl 02/02/2025

If Markets Played in The Superbowl On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it’s a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury. What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amount of Philly bias. Go Birds! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35117705

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