The Rate Guy

The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.

Wall Street Meet Socialism 06/30/2025

Wall Street Meet Socialism On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37216785

The Uncertainty Bends Continue 06/22/2025

The Uncertainty Bends Continue On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37106385

What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months) 06/15/2025

What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months) On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/37017820

Jobs, Schmobs 06/08/2025

Jobs, Schmobs On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn’t reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36908920

The Tail That Wagged The Dog 05/26/2025

The Tail That Wagged The Dog On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36716605

The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues 05/19/2025

The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36622180

Fed Meeting Primer 05/05/2025

Fed Meeting Primer On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin? We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. Mohammed El-Erian said it in the nicest way possible, "Markets are underestimating the depth and duration of this trade reset.” If you want to see the graphs referenced, you can see this week's newsletter . And you can easily . /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36437945

Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview with J Mo 04/27/2025

Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview with J Mo On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36330810

WTF is a Basis Trade Unwind? 04/14/2025

WTF is a Basis Trade Unwind? On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it’s probably not about deficits or de-dollarization. From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP’s career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and reminds us: reducing exposure isn’t the same as betting against the U.S. To check out the graphs referenced - check out the /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36126580

Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln? 04/07/2025

Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln? This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/36034905

The Uncertainty Bends 03/24/2025

The Uncertainty Bends This week’s episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability. We unpack: The latest on interest rates and consumer behavior Why sentiment may be flashing recession signals What’s driving economic uncertainty—and how long it could last Also, somehow this marks 5 years of podcasting unfiltered, occasionally accurate, and questionably useful economic insights. Thanks for listening (and surviving) with us! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35834815

Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water? 03/09/2025

Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water? On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think. Here is the that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35596065

DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR 03/02/2025

DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it’s contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it’s just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something we’ll be watching closely. Plus: The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast just fell off a cliff—from 4% growth to -1.5%. The culprit? Tariffs. Job market warning signs: layoffs, spending freezes, and consumer pullback. Treasury yields react post-Eagles Super Bowl win—are we headed back below 4%? It’s all in this week’s episode. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35502410

59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4% 02/23/2025

59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4% On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35393885

If Markets Played in The Superbowl 02/02/2025

If Markets Played in The Superbowl On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it’s a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury. What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amount of Philly bias. Go Birds! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35117705

DJT, Jerry Jones, and The Real JP Walk Into a Bar... 01/26/2025

DJT, Jerry Jones, and The Real JP Walk Into a Bar... On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Birds! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/35011200

No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year 01/21/2025

No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/34939230

Rate Cuts Aren't Causing a Surge 01/13/2025

Rate Cuts Aren't Causing a Surge On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week’s inflation data and what it could mean moving forward. We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we’re holding LA, its residents, our friends and customers close in our thoughts and prayers during this horrific time. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/34832770

Lead Pipe Lock Guarantees for 2025 12/30/2024

Lead Pipe Lock Guarantees for 2025 On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss. Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our 5th season. Happy New Year! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/34660480

'Twas the Night Before FOMC 12/16/2024

'Twas the Night Before FOMC On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas. JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like to recieve that subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter . /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/34466625

The Economy Lost 355k Jobs Last Month 12/08/2024

The Economy Lost 355k Jobs Last Month On this episode of The Rate Guys we discuss the Jobs Report and.how it will affect the Fed Meeting. Also, what data point can you not trust right now. And we of course had to touch on the heartbreak of the Penn State loss. So if you want to skip the football, fast forward to about the 3:45 mark. For those that want to check out the the CME Fed Match link that JP discussed. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/34338490

DAYzed And Confused 12/02/2024

DAYzed And Confused On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/34221980

I Can Give You the Rate or the Timeline, But Not Both at Once 11/25/2024

I Can Give You the Rate or the Timeline, But Not Both at Once On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw a parallel between our family’s driving mishaps and the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. With inflation cooling and jobs slowing, the Fed is cautiously navigating an economic intersection, but are they pressing the brakes too hard—or not enough? Tune in to hear what’s ahead for rates. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/34131711

Will Deficits Push the T10 to 7%? 11/17/2024

Will Deficits Push the T10 to 7%? This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/33960607

Just How Inflationary Could Tariffs Be? 11/10/2024

Just How Inflationary Could Tariffs Be? Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump’s biggest obstacle. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/33870792

Gaslighting Doesn't Exist. You just Made It Up Because You're Crazy. 11/03/2024

Gaslighting Doesn't Exist. You just Made It Up Because You're Crazy. On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State’s repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile week with the election and Fed meeting on the horizon. /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/33765487

The Fed is Cutting and the T10 is Surging? 10/28/2024

The Fed is Cutting and the T10 is Surging? We're baaaaack! On this week’s episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can’t take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down. Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And what’s the Fed's next move? Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventure—stunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed. To see a few shots from our trip check out the . /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/33640902

The Fed is Still Cutting in November 10/07/2024

The Fed is Still Cutting in November On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November. FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click . /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/33356832

JMo Unmasked 09/30/2024

JMo Unmasked On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what’s next. Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity! /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/33259372

The Fed Should Cut 50bps This Week, but They Won't 09/15/2024

The Fed Should Cut 50bps This Week, but They Won't On this episode of The Rate Guy, we’re keeping it short and sweet. We’re prepping for Wednesday’s rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won’t go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We’ll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting. Here is the link to register for the that you won't want to miss! Topics of Discussion Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on September 19th, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT. This webinar will cover a variety of topics including: Fixed and Floating Rate Forecasts Rate Cuts Faster than Expected Whether Rate Cuts are too Late Labor Market Weakness Risk of Recurring Inflation Hedging Against Falling Rates /episode/index/show/rateguy/id/33063057

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