Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

In this podcast, John & Sam exchange perspectives on current events that are impacting our economy and influencing investment strategies. Trading Perspectives is hosted by Oakworth Capital Bank's Chief Economist, John Norris along with Sam Clement, Associate Managing Director. https://www.oakworth.com/ [email protected]

Government Inefficiency and Wildfires….The Chicken or the Egg? 01/16/2025

Government Inefficiency and Wildfires….The Chicken or the Egg? The recent wildfires in Los Angeles have been horrific to witness and even more so to live through. But could they have been avoided? If not avoided, could an effective governmental response mitigated the damage to the error? Was it climate change or government inefficiency which exacerbated an already bad situation? Are there any generational differences of opinion? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the wildfires in California and debate whether it had to be as bad as it has been. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34883650

The Transition to End All Transitions 01/09/2025

The Transition to End All Transitions The current transition of power from the Biden Administration to Trump Part 2 has been one for the books. The current president has been issuing pardons and making executive orders like has not been seen in recent memory. For his part, the new president has been acting like he is already in office and appears willing to alienate a good chunk of the world in the process. Are these good things? Are they the new normal? What do they mean for the smooth transition of power in the future? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the increasingly bizarre time between one Administration and the next. Are there any generational differences in how they feel about all of the weirdness? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34792825

Our Predictions for 2025: Part 2 01/02/2025

Our Predictions for 2025: Part 2 As we start 2025, a lot of people want to know what the upcoming year holds for them, the economy and the investment markets. So, what does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions, but what is the truth? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris go through the second half of Oakworth’s Investment Committee’s predictions for 2025. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34700805

Our Predictions for 2025: Part 1 12/26/2024

Our Predictions for 2025: Part 1 After another strong, if confusing, year in 2024, what can the US economy and financial markets do for an encore? What does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement, John Norris and special guest Ryan Bernal go through half of Oakworth’s Investment Committee’s predictions for 2025. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34623750

2024 In the Rearview 12/19/2024

2024 In the Rearview This year has been another wild one in the markets, economy, society and geopolitics. But what have we learned? What was most surprising about events throughout the rest of the world? What changes happened in our domestic society, for good or bad? How strong is the U.S. economy, really? Does anyone tell the truth anymore? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the year that was in 2024, and where they think everything is headed in the upcoming year. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34532615

What If They Threw a Revolution And No One Cared? 12/11/2024

What If They Threw a Revolution And No One Cared? Over the weekend, Syrian rebels overthrew the Assad dynasty, which had ruled the country for 5 decades. On Monday, the US stock market shrugged, and meaningful news coverage of the event was hard to find. Do American investors simply not care about the rest of the world? After all, there seem to be a lot of global problems and US stocks are at an all-time high. Further, what is it about the Middle East where just about all countries have a powerful king or some other form of strongman or junta calling the shots? Will it ever change? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Syrian Revolution, and why Americans ignored it almost as soon as it happened. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34395445

Silver & Gold for Christmas? Not So Fast. 12/05/2024

Silver & Gold for Christmas? Not So Fast. The global wholesale diamond market has essentially collapsed over the last several years. Publicaly traded jewelry companies have been struggling with softer revenue and earnings. With the exception of perhaps ultra-high end brands, the demand for fine jewelry has essentially stalled. Is this due to the consumer being strapped for cash? Or have consumer preferences changed? After all, the demand for fine china and antique wooden furniture also seems to have waned. Could it be generational preferences or is it purely economic? Has supply outpaced demand? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how problems in the jewelry sector have more to do with alternatives and supply than changing consumer preferences. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34305250

Is the Holiday Shopping Going to Be Merry? 11/25/2024

Is the Holiday Shopping Going to Be Merry? Last week, Target Corporation announced disappointing sales growth for its 3rd Quarter of 2024. This was just another hint at a broader U.S. consumer slowdown or cooling. While spending forecasts aren’t dire, how much fuel does the average American household have in the tank to propel the upcoming holiday shopping season? Will it be merry and bright for retailers? Or will Santa be leaving coal in their stockings? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcoming holiday shopping season, and whether the U.S. consumer can continue to spend money at the same pace it has. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34141881

Crypto Assets are Soaring... Again 11/20/2024

Crypto Assets are Soaring... Again Though November 20th, Bitcoin has more than doubled in value since the start of 2024. Since the end of 2022, it has more than quintupled. But why? Even the most passionate crypto investors have a difficult time explaining exactly what Bitcoin is in terms the average person can understand. It doesn’t pay dividends or interest. It doesn’t generate revenue or profits. You can’t hold it. Heck, you can’t even see it. So why do certain investors love it as much as they do? This asset class which exists out in the technological ether? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent rally in Bitcoin and wonder just how much longer can it last. After all, it seems like we have been through this previously. So, is this time different? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/34044196

With the Election Over, Is the USA Still a Good Investment? 11/14/2024

With the Election Over, Is the USA Still a Good Investment? Now that the U.S. elections are finally over, investors are looking at their portfolios and wondering if the United States is still worth the risk. Will it still be able to generate attractive rates of growth? Are its institutions still relatively stable? Is its currency still sound? Will the Republicans spoil a good thing? On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how the U.S. remains the most attractive investment market for the foreseeable future. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33933257

Stocks Soared After the Election. What's Next? 11/07/2024

Stocks Soared After the Election. What's Next? The U.S. stock market took off like a rocket the day after the election. Why did it rally as strongly as it did? Was it policy? Something to do with Trump himself? Relief the painful campaign process was finally over? Or could it be the next 2-4 years looks a little less cloudy than it did on Monday? After all, investors have already had 4 years of a Trump presidency. Or could it be some sort of combination? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the markets’ extreme reaction following the U.S. elections, and what to expect for the remainder of 2024 and moving into 2025. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33830302

A Minimum Wage or a Living Wage? 10/31/2024

A Minimum Wage or a Living Wage? Leading up to election, social media has been inundated with posts about minimum and living wages. However, what are they exactly? Do they actually work? Whom do they benefit and whom do they hurt, if anybody? Or, are they mostly political props candidate use to curry favor with voters? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the minimum wage and the concept of a living wage, and why they are difficult to enact, at best, across a nation the size of the United States. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33708537

Are Restaurants Really in Trouble? 10/23/2024

Are Restaurants Really in Trouble? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss trends in the restaurant industry and the likely causes for many of the recent closures. John also gives a huge shout-out to Current Charcoal Grill here in Birmingham. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33588372

End-of-Year Crystal Ball & Preparing for 2025 10/17/2024

End-of-Year Crystal Ball & Preparing for 2025 After another crazy year in the economy and markets, will there ever be a return to some sense of normalcy? Join John Norris, Sam Clement and David McGrath from our investment committee in this recorded webinar panel discussion on this topic and more: - How will the Fed rate cuts impact the economy? - Why the disconnect between the economic data & public perception? - What can the stock market do for an encore? - Will the U.S. be able to avoid a recession? - Will the presidential election have an impact on the markets? We'll talk through this and more! Plus, listen in on our Q&A session at the end. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33501522

The High Cost of Having Fun 10/09/2024

The High Cost of Having Fun To the outsider, American consumers must be a weird bunch. They will bemoan the cost of something insignificant, like a carton of eggs, while spending obscene amounts of money on concert tickets, sporting events and other types of activities. Undoubtedly, this change in consumer behavior will impact the economy moving forward. However, are the government agencies accurately capturing its impact using methodology they developed for a simpler time? What if our experiences are changing how we look at the economy? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the soaring cost of having fun and what it means for the economy on our daily lives. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33394902

Chinese Sunset 10/03/2024

Chinese Sunset Last week, The People’s Bank of China threw an unprecedented amount of stimuli on the Chinese banking system in order to spur the sluggish economy. The Chinese stock markets have soared in response. However, will it be enough? The Chinese economy and banking system are facing severe structural challenges which could take decades to repair. From declining demographics to the collapse in the residential real estate market to the Communist Party exerting control over the private sector, China is probably not the growth engine it once was. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris talk about the recent attempts to jumpstart the floundering Chinese economy. Will they work? Or will China be in for a decade of discontent? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33313352

Will Social Media Decide the Election? 09/26/2024

Will Social Media Decide the Election? In the United States, millions of people use some form of social media every second of every day. For many, it is their primary source of information. If so, just how accurate is it? Further, are they getting news from a number of different sources and voices? Or is it the same people saying the same thing over and over again? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the impact social media outlets will have on the upcoming elections? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33219177

The Fed Cut Rates! Now What? 09/19/2024

The Fed Cut Rates! Now What? After months of speculating when the Fed would cut the overnight rate, it finally did so this past Wednesday by 50 basis points. Further, Fed Chairman Jay Powell essentially said this was the first cut of potentially many, while reiterating the economy was still strong. So, what does this mean for the U.S. economy? What does it mean for the real estate sector? What does it mean for the American consumer? Will lower rates really be the cure for what we think ails us? Or, like sugar pills, are they psychosomatic? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the first Fed rate cut in 4 years and what it could mean for the economy. Will it be a magic bullet? Probably not, but it is probably better than nothing. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33128582

Is the Economy Really as Strong as Washington is Telling Us? 09/11/2024

Is the Economy Really as Strong as Washington is Telling Us? The Census Bureau recently reported the official Poverty Rate fell to 11.1% in 2023. Historically, this is a very low number. Further, median household income rose to an all-time high last year, and the current unemployment rate is a miserly 4.2%. Washington tells us the Consumer Price Index is a very manageable 2.5%, and real wages are going up. This is all very positive news, but why do so many people not believe it? Is the government’s methodology flawed or is it purposefully feeding the public false information? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the disconnect between the official economic data and the public’s perception of reality. Is the data an accurate reflection of what is happening? Or is a negative news cycle warping people’s perceptions? Inquiring minds want to know. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/33013242

Can You Trust An Antitrust Investigation 09/04/2024

Can You Trust An Antitrust Investigation The quickest way to grow an economy is to unfetter it. However, the Federal government has enacted over 200,000 pages of regulations in the Code of Federal Regulations. It also routinely investigates naturally occurring monopolies, usually in the tech sector, which is both time consuming and costly. Since regulations present a cost to doing business, and, therefore, slowing economic activity, why does Washington persists in increasing the regulatory environment. Again, already over 200,000 in the making and growing. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how the recent DOJ investigation into Nvidia is just another example of how Washington tacks on costs and oversight without any clear benefit for the consumer. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32898667

Collector's Items Which Aren't 08/29/2024

Collector's Items Which Aren't Baseball card collectors should beware. The same could be said of folks who have stamp and coin collections. China table settings? Antique furniture? Silver serving trays and tea sets? Any so-called collectors’ item you can buy off the television? Most of these things don’t have the true market value many think they do. That is to say, what people are actually willing to pay for an item, and not where someone is trying to sell it on Ebay. But why when these items seem to be so precious? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the real value of collections. You might not like what you hear. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32800157

Is the Top 1% Shopping at Walmart? 08/22/2024

Is the Top 1% Shopping at Walmart? Sometimes the official economic data doesn’t tell the whole story. So, when the data is in doubt, you have to go to corporate earnings releases to find the truth. Last quarter, it seems the truth was lower income households are feeling the pinch, and upper income earners are becoming more cost conscious. At least on somewhat generic goods and services. This makes perfect sense, as tickets for Taylor Swift and Beyonce cost a lot of money. So do international vacations and trips to the Gulf of Mexico. So, are the rich changing their spending patterns? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss recent consumer behavior, and question whether inflation is already coming down on its own thanks to these shifts. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32695727

Affordable Housing Isn't Very Affordable 08/14/2024

Affordable Housing Isn't Very Affordable Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been reporting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to increase at a decreasing rate. That is ordinarily a good thing for US consumers. However, don’t tell that to potential first-time homebuyers who still can’t find a decent house at a monthly payment which makes sense. This keeps them renting instead of owner, which makes sense in the short-term but doesn’t over time. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the US housing market and some of the reasons why young people are having difficulty buying a home. Unfortunately, things likely won’t get much better for a while. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32576767

So The Market Sold Off? What’s the Big Deal? 08/07/2024

So The Market Sold Off? What’s the Big Deal? After an incredibly easy go of it for the first seven months of 2024, the start of August was a rude awakening to U.S. stock investors. The market can and will go down, and no one is happy about it when it does. However, what was the real cause of this recent sell-off? Was it really a weak jobs report? Japanese monetary policy? Impending economic doom? Or was it a relatively normal reaction an unusual market? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market turmoil. Is this a temporary setback? Or are the bad times here to stay? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32484807

Another Cloudy Day in the Middle East 07/31/2024

Another Cloudy Day in the Middle East This week, Israel assassinated high ranking officials in both Hamas and Hezbollah. The world currently awaits Iran’s reaction and response to the killing of its allies. Will it lead to a greater escalation of hostilities in the Middle East? If so, just how involved with the United States get? With all of the anti-Israel protests happening in this country, will young Americans be willing to fight and die for U.S., Israeli and other western interests in the United States? Or will Generation Z question the validity of the interests after the last decades of American wars without a clear-cut objective? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the increasing tension in the Middle East. Will younger Americans step up to defend their long-time ally in the region, Israel? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32371767

Where Do We Go From Here? 07/25/2024

Where Do We Go From Here? The 2024 Presidential campaign has been nothing if not exciting. From the disastrous first debate to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to President Biden dropping out of the race, things couldn’t get more weird. Or could they? Kamala Harris will assuredly leave the Democratic Convention in Chicago as the party’s official nominee. However, who will be the Vice President on her ticket? Just how far to the left will the party platform go? On the other side of the aisle, what does JD Vance ultimately bring to the ticket? Is the GOP actually trying to win? There are too many questions and too few answers this close to the election. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcoming Presidential election and how bizarre the campaign, thus far, has been. Can it get worse between now and November? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32292762

China Has Peaked 07/18/2024

China Has Peaked The collapse in the real estate market in China, and subsequent banking crisis, haven’t attracted much media attention in the United States. However, it is a very real story to the average Chinese citizen and that country’s prospects for economic growth moving forward. Simply put, the incredible erosion of wealth due to falling housing prices will constrain consumer spending and investment for the foreseeable future. Numerous private sector bank failures will leave Beijing even more in control of the financial system. As a result, what the central government doesn’t outright own it can control through the access to credit. This will undoubted curtail innovation and entrepreneurialism. While China can continue to grow and remain a threat to the United States, its growth rates have peaked, probably permanently. What will that mean as the Chinese Communist Party tries to cling to power? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the ongoing real estate and banking crises in China, and how it will likely impact the global economy? Why is this such a secret? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32196182

NATO? I Barely Knew You 07/11/2024

NATO? I Barely Knew You What if NATO held a conference in Washington and nobody paid any attention? As far as most Americans are concerned, that is exactly what happened this past week. Regardless of the general public’s disinterest, NATO remains the United States’ primarily military alliance and commitment. Further, NATO obligates the U.S. to potentially fight and die for countries many Americans couldn’t find on a map. So, why don’t we care more than we do? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss NATO and our nation’s general apathy towards that organization. Are there any generational differences in opinion since John grew up during the Cold War and Sam didn’t? /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32100047

The Elephant In the Room 07/03/2024

The Elephant In the Room The recent U.S. Presidential debate has been a topic of discussion since one minute after it began. Is the current President capable of serving out another term? Is the former President capable of keeping his ego in check to run the country without malice? What does this do for the election? What does this mean for the perception of American power around the world? Will widespread concern about Joe Biden’s effort result in a new Democratic candidate? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris have a frank discussion about the debate, and try to determine to a probable case scenario for November’s election and what that means for 2025. /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/32004247

In Some Places, the More Things Change the More They Don’t. 06/27/2024

In Some Places, the More Things Change the More They Don’t. With China as the most notable exception, the world’s richest countries 25 years ago are still largely the richest. Similarly, the world’s poorest countries at the start of the century are still at the bottom of the list. The same could be said for U.S. states. Why is this? Why do some countries and economies continue to thrive and others languish? Why do some have spurts of growth before petering out? How do some economies without any natural resources perform so well while others with an abundance dramatically underperform? Why are the disparities a constant? Why do some areas embrace change and others don’t? After all, change is necessary for inclusive, sustainable growth. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss why rich countries seem to stay rich and poor countries remain poor. Is there a magic formula for success? And what is the anchor holding people back /episode/index/show/tradingperspectives/id/31913762

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

TOPICS