Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast
In this podcast, John & Sam exchange perspectives on current events that are impacting our economy and influencing investment strategies. Trading Perspectives is hosted by Oakworth Capital Bank's Chief Economist, John Norris along with Sam Clement, Associate Managing Director. https://www.oakworth.com/ [email protected]
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Are the Ivies Still Worth It?
04/24/2024
Are the Ivies Still Worth It?
The recent turmoil, protests and an apparent lack of accountability at many prestigious American institutions of higher learning have begged a question: is an Ivy League education still worth the cost? Does the rarefied air of these schools for the elite still impress the American public the way it once did, not so long ago? If not, why and when did it happen? What’s more, will it ever again. In this episode of Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing protests at numerous Northeastern colleges and universities and wonder whether these schools will return to position of prominence with the common man. The answer isn’t as simple as yes.
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Can the United States Win A Global War?
04/18/2024
Can the United States Win A Global War?
With all the turmoil around the world, and the subsequent drawdown on US stockpiles, just how prepared would the US be if the planet erupted in a hot war? Would the United States have enough ammunition, missiles, ships and planes to fight several different types of wars on several different continents? What’s more, is the American public ready for such a thing? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss about American military preparedness in what is increasingly a dangerous time.
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California Dreaming - Minimum Wage Edition
04/10/2024
California Dreaming - Minimum Wage Edition
Last week, the minimum wage for fast food workers in California went to $20. This will become the de facto minimum wage for unskilled labor across the state. While it might seem like a win for workers, what will be the likely end result? After all, someone will have to absorb this mandated cost increase, and it isn’t just going to be employers. Don’t tell anyone in Sacramento that, though. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the concept of the minimum wage and what its real impact is. If you took an Econ 101 class, you already know the answer.
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Is the Key Bridge Key to the Economy?
04/03/2024
Is the Key Bridge Key to the Economy?
Last week, a wayward container ship struck the Key Bridge causing it to collapse. This effectively closed the Port of Baltimore until the powers that be can clear the wreckage from the shipping channel. Will these delay derail the US economy? Will it cause supply chain issues up and down the East Coast? Will we have to wait months for our cars, our coal and our sugar? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent collapse of the Key Bridge and what the indefinite closure of the Port of Baltimore could mean to the US economy.
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Our Men & Women in Haiti?
03/28/2024
Our Men & Women in Haiti?
The recent turmoil in Haiti begs the question just what is the United States’ role in that fractured country? However, what should our role be in the Democratic Republic of Congo? Somalia? Myanmar? Gaza? Ukraine? The jungles of Colombia? Central America? And any other place which is suffering with internal strife, famine, civil war and worse, if that is possible? Should Washington spend taxpayer money and risk American lives meddling in other countries’ affairs? Are there any generational differences? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk what role the United States should play as police force to the world? Is that something Americans want us to be any longer? Will our younger generations even take up arms to do so?
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EV or Not EV? That is the Question.
03/21/2024
EV or Not EV? That is the Question.
This week the Administration restated tailpipe emission standards which will effectively end the American auto industry as we currently know it. The goal is simple: to have more Americans drive more electric vehicles in order to drive down harmful carbon emissions. However, as the old saying goes, for every action there is a reaction. Did the Administration really think through all of the probable consequences of its emissions mandate? At first blush, it wouldn’t appear so. On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recently announced tailpipe emission standards and how the US economy simply isn’t ready, willing and able to abide by them.
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Can't Buy Me Love?
03/13/2024
Can't Buy Me Love?
Everywhere you look, it seems people are doing better than you are. They drive nicer cars. Eat better food. Wear nicer clothes. Have cooler friends. Take fancier trips. You name it. However, the chances are someone is looking at you, and feeling the same way. This begs the question: can money really buy happiness in a society which consumes so much of it? At first blush, it would seem so. But can it really? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about whether money truly can buy happiness. Are there any generational differences? Or does it depend on everybody’s unique definition of what happiness means?
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Not So Super Tuesday
03/06/2024
Not So Super Tuesday
What if they threw an election and no one cared? After all, both Biden and Trump had pretty much locked up their party’s nomination long before this week. So, a lot of Americans didn’t even bother voting. How will the sense of resignation impact the consumer and markets over the long months to November? Is the recent rally in cryptocurrencies and precious metals due to this sour sentiment, this angst, or something else? How much longer can it last? On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent Not So Super Tuesday and what it could mean for the remainder of the year.
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To Spend or Not to Spend? That is the Question.
02/29/2024
To Spend or Not to Spend? That is the Question.
The government says the economy is growing rapidly and the U.S. consumer is alive and well. However, people don’t seem to believe this apparent good fortune, and complain about having to tighten their belts. So, just how strong is the U.S. consumer? And, what would you least be willing to cut out of your budget if worst came to worst? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about what they would chop and what they would keep in their budget if times really got tight. Are there any generational differences and Trading Perspectives?
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When Will Inflation Quit Inflating?
02/14/2024
When Will Inflation Quit Inflating?
This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher in January than analysts had been predicting. The markets didn’t like the news, much like consumers. The question remains: how much longer will inflation be a problem? If higher interest rates can’t do it alone, what must happen in the economy? And from what Washington has been telling us, the economy has been chugging along nicely. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent inflation and their thoughts on where prices are headed over the next twelve months.
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The Case Against Emerging Markets
01/31/2024
The Case Against Emerging Markets
There is little argument much of this century’s economic growth will come from emerging economies. However, that doesn’t mean there will always be money to be made in them for US investors. Growth is one thing, profit is another and the return of profit is yet another. Do the powers that be in places like Beijing, Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Hanoi, New Delhi and elsewhere have US investors’ best interests when at heart? That is a difficult question to answer in the affirmative. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss emerging market investments, some of the reasons why they have underperformed and why investing in these countries requires a lot more homework than the average US investor realizes.
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The Campaign is Already Wearing Thin
01/24/2024
The Campaign is Already Wearing Thin
The bickering, back-biting and name calling which we have come to expect from election cycles is already at a fever pitch. Although Donald Trump still has to get past Nikki Haley, the two political parties are wasting little time bad-mouthing each other. It is enough to make one tune down the volume or switch channels. How did we get to this point? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing political campaigns to determine if there are any generational differences to how the general public perceives them. Are the older folks wiser? Or can they learn something about processing all of this information from the kids?
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Crypto for Grandma
01/11/2024
Crypto for Grandma
This week, the SEC effectively approved Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency ETFs for retail investors. No longer will folks have to trade on some shadowy platform or even open up a Coinbase account. It is cryptocurrency for the masses, but is it a good idea? After all, can anyone effectively value, say, a Bitcoin? Is it really a currency? A method of exchange or store of value? Or is it a volatile asset class? If the latter, what happens when it becomes completely mainstream? When your grandmother can buy it? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss recent SEC rulings approving Bitcoin ETFs. Just how successful will they be? Who is going to buy them? Also, what is going to happen in the other SEC now that Nick Saban has retired?
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A Few Resolutions to Start the Year
01/04/2024
A Few Resolutions to Start the Year
While a lot of people make resolutions to start the year, few of them actually see them through to fruition. With that in mind, what should the planet’s most powerful people resolve to do this upcoming year? What will they actually resolve? The two don’t have to be the same. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John try to solve the world’s problems by guessing the new year’s resolutions of the world’s biggest leaders. Do you agree?
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A Look Into the Crystal Ball for 2024
12/27/2023
A Look Into the Crystal Ball for 2024
What will the stock market do next year? Will the economy go into recession? How many times will the Fed cut rates, if they do so at all? As always, there are so many questions leading into a new year. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John share their thoughts about what could be in store for 2024. Is it good news or bad? You will have to listen to find out.
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The End of Higher Rates - For Now
12/14/2023
The End of Higher Rates - For Now
This week, central banks across the world essentially said their collective fight against inflation was over. In the United States, the Fed’s own data suggested it would start cutting the overnight rate roughly 3 times in 2024. Couple that with Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments about inflation, and investors took it as the end of this tightening cycle. However, this begs the questions: 1) is inflation really dead, and; 2) did the Fed do the right thing? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the Federal Reserve’s non-action this past week and what it means for the economy and the markets heading into the new year.
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College Football Tomfoolery?
12/06/2023
College Football Tomfoolery?
This past weekend, the CFP Committee chose its Top 4 teams to participate for the national championship. But were they the best, let alone the most deserving teams? Is there any real difference between the best and the most deserving? Or did the committee simply make a business decision? After all, money talks, and it always has. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the upcoming college football playoffs, and ask the question: are the Top 4 teams participating or are the Top 4 most profitable?
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The Global Shift to the Right?
11/29/2023
The Global Shift to the Right?
After surprising right-wing victories in elections in Argentina and the Netherlands, pundits have noticed there seems to be a growing trend towards nationalism, especially in Europe. While some outlets blame record immigration levels for this change in sentiment, the causes could also be economic. After all, has globalism produced the economic benefits in Europe or South America that its supporters claimed it would? That is a good question. What if it is a combination of the two? After all, when times are already tight at your house and in your country, how does a flood of immigrants help? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the growth of nationalism in Europe, and to a lesser extent Argentina. Is it cause for concern? Or is it just the national reaction to the mixed results globalism has delivered on the continent?
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Bringing AI Back to the Front Page
11/22/2023
Bringing AI Back to the Front Page
This past week, the board of directors at OpenAI abruptly terminated co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This came as a shock to just about everyone but the board itself. However, it reopened the conversation about AI and its potential future impact on, well, everything. That it has the potential to fundamentally change our lives and conduct business is without question. However, who will benefit the most? Who will adapt the quickest? Who won’t adapt at all? Are there any generational differences? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the potential impact AI will have on business. Which one do you think is the most scared of AI? Are either?
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Is America's Influence Declining?
11/15/2023
Is America's Influence Declining?
Depending on to whom you are talking, America’s global influence is either plummeting or slowly decreasing. Regardless, it seems no one feels the US is in ascendency. How did this come about and what are the reasons? Further, what does it mean for the US economy, if anything at all? Does it matter if the US is no longer the world’s policeman, but is still a major economic force? Are there any generational differences of opinion? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John welcome Sidney Fry to the podcast to discuss the changing face of America’s global power, and if there is anything to be done about it?
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When Will the Consumer Quit Complaining?
11/08/2023
When Will the Consumer Quit Complaining?
Although analysts keep saying inflation is coming down, prices at the store certainly aren’t. This is the difference between relativity and absolutism. Although prices have been elevated for a while, consumers continue to have sticker shock. So, how much longer will it be before the average U.S. consumer accepts higher prices are here to stay and move on? While it be next year, 2025 or never? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss higher prices and when the U.S. consumer will quit complaining about them. One says next year and the other thinks it will be 2025. Can you guess which?
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How Are We Going to Buy for Everything?
10/25/2023
How Are We Going to Buy for Everything?
As everyone knows, Washington is already running eye-watering deficits. What happens when the U.S. has to significantly increase defense expenditures in order to fulfill our global promises? Couple that with an apparent unwillingness to address runaway entitlements programs, and how is the Treasury going to pay for it all? At least at current interest rates? Simply put, it isn’t. At some point in the not so distant future, the Federal Reserve is going to have to stop reducing its balance sheet and start doing some YCC (yield curve control). It isn’t a question of if, it is a question of when. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss Washington’s profligacy and its ability to finance it moving forward. The low-hanging fruit is getting the Fed involved, again, but when? John and Sam bet a beer on it. Who will win?
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How Weight Loss Impacts the Economy
10/19/2023
How Weight Loss Impacts the Economy
Recently, consumers have been using drugs approved to treat diabetes to lose weight. Depending on the person, the results can be significant. Further, it seems people using these drugs for weight loss often change their consumption patterns, at least to some degree. While this is obvious great news for a country struggling with obesity, what does it mean to companies and economic sectors which depend on Americans being fat? There is real money at stake. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the recent spike in the use of weight loss drugs and what it means for the US economy.
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Turmoil in the Middle East
10/12/2023
Turmoil in the Middle East
Last weekend, Hamas unleashed a coordinated military attack against southern Israel, catching the latter off guard. While the world’s leaders have condemned the attack, social media message boards and websites aren’t anywhere close to being one-sided for the Israelis. Far from it. Since young people are more apt to use social media, is there a generational divide in public support for Israel? If so, what has caused it and what does it mean if the situation escalates? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the conflict in southern Israel and the Gaza Strip. How does Gen Z feel about it relative to Gen X?
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How Much Higher Will Rates Go?
10/05/2023
How Much Higher Will Rates Go?
Long-term interest rates have climbed dramatically over the last two months. This has negatively impacted bond and stock investors. However, many people fear they have higher still to go. After all, Washington keeps running massive deficits. The Federal Reserve and foreign investors aren’t buying as many Treasuries securities, and domestic investors want a high real rate of return. Then there is the current mess in Washington. So, just how much higher will rates go before people start gobbling them up? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent increase in interest rates and the political turmoil in Washington. Is there any reason for rates to go down? If not, how much higher will they go?
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Are EV Dreams a Nightmare?
09/27/2023
Are EV Dreams a Nightmare?
This week, Ford announced plans to pause production on an electric vehicle battery assembly plant in Michigan. This was due to political pushback stemming from the realization that Ford was going to license the necessary technology from the Chinese firm CATL. However, given how far behind the US is in EV battery technology and supply-chain sourcing, is it realistic to imagine the Big Three expanding its EV production without technical assistance from China? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the current state of the EV market in the United States and what changes the Big Three have to make in order to compete without help from the Chinese.
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How Many Strikes Are In An Out?
09/21/2023
How Many Strikes Are In An Out?
The division between labor and management seems to be growing around the world. From railway workers in Sri Lanka to doctors in the U.K. to screenwriters in Hollywood to autoworkers in the Midwest. Does it make sense? Or do those on strike not fully understand the bigger picture, even if they might have a legitimate grief? After all, telephone operators probably had gripes too. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss various strikes around the world, but focus on those closer to home. Are the strikers truly bargaining from a position of strength? Does management fully comprehend the future of its various industries?
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Will Inflation Eat Your Wallet?
09/14/2023
Will Inflation Eat Your Wallet?
Recent sharp increases in energy prices have caused pain at the pump and pushed the inflation gauges higher. Couple this with student loan repayments, and what, then, is the state of the U.S. consumer heading into the holiday shopping season? When things get tight, what gets the ax? Is it travel? The movies? Restaurants? Or is everyone different? Further, what impact would this have on overall U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Basically, how much will this recent uptick in inflation drive down real economic growth? Should we be worried? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss recent, unexpected increases in inflation and what they could mean for the U.S. economy. Are there generational differences about the probable cause scenario?
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Student Debt Payback Blowout!
09/06/2023
Student Debt Payback Blowout!
After years of pandemic-related moratoriums on the repayment of student loan debt, the clock has finally stopped ticking. Unless something dramatic happens, people will have to start paying back what they have borrowed. Have they budgeted for it? Not likely. If they haven’t, what expenditures get the ax? Essentially, what can younger people cut out of a monthly budget when there is a serious need for cash? In this week’s Trading Perspective’s, Sam and John welcome another member of Generation-Z to the podcast, John’s daughter Annie Norris. With two Gen-Z’s with which to contend, will John be able to wax nostalgic about how much cheaper things were back in his day?
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COVID. Come Again?
08/30/2023
COVID. Come Again?
It seems COVID is rearing its ugly head again. As a result, more and more people are wearing masks in public and consciously keeping their distance from others. It begs the question: what would the public’s response be to future mask mandates, economic shutdowns and shelter in place orders? Would we acquiesce as quickly as we did in 2020? Or will people push back on the government this time around? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the potential for a return of pandemic restrictions. Would the government try such a thing? Would people comply? Are there generational or regional differences? Regardless, next time should be different.
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