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Russia's Nudol Anti-Satellite Missile Test

Arms Control Wonk

Release Date: 05/01/2020

The CAT I is Out of the Bag show art The CAT I is Out of the Bag

Arms Control Wonk

Ukraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that's raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines  Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally address, and the whole host of problems associated with figuring out what a destabilizing cruise missile really looks like.  Support us over at !

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The Washington Declaration show art The Washington Declaration

Arms Control Wonk

President Yoon of South Korea recently visited the United States to talk nukes and Don McLean with President Biden. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through what the Declaration actually covers, how much was material and how much was fluff, and the moonwalking capabilities of the D5 SLBM.  Support us over at !

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FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18 show art FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18

Arms Control Wonk

FINALLY.  After almost a decade of hinting and teasing and parading fake empty canisters, North Korea has debuted its long-awated solid propellant ICBM. And the team have some questions about where the construction and testing sites were...   Jeffrey, Scott, and Dave descend upon the CNS DC offices for a rare in-person podcast to commemorate the event we've been waiting on for years. Support us over at !

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Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom show art Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom

Arms Control Wonk

The IAEA is doing a great job with the s**t we're handing them. A very jetlagged Jeffrey joins Aaron to talk about the IAEA and the very positive role that Director General Rafael Grossi has played in trying to hold together the nuclear situation with Iran. JCPOA-holdover cameras, discontinuity in footage, and a bunch of suddenly friendliness from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia all make for a tense and confusing situation.  Support us over at !

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The Actual Demise of New START show art The Actual Demise of New START

Arms Control Wonk

New START has been in peril for years. The first episode of the pod was about the INF Treaty being in danger, and here we are, 8 years later, with almost no arms control treaties left. Maybe it is time to rename the pod Arms Race Wonk, because the next few years are going to be scary.  Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the Era Without (Bilateral) Arms Control, the immanent two-front deterrence challenge, and how being scared as **** is the only way we know deterrence is working.  Support us over at !

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Another North Korean Missile Parade show art Another North Korean Missile Parade

Arms Control Wonk

Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott say the unthinkable: we're a little tired of the parades. But we're glad the youthes are still ordering pizza and crowding around the computer to watch.  North Korea paraded at least 15 ICBMs, including 4 that were clearly meant to look like solid-propellent ICBMs. We've been down this road before, they've played with our hearts. But now we're in the era where a solid ICBM is very possible, and a solid ICBM test is expected.  The team talks about what got paraded, what the solid propellant ICBMs mean, the end of several long-running ACW threads, and Scott...

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One of Them is Wrong About That show art One of Them is Wrong About That

Arms Control Wonk

Both plan on going first, but... President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little). In the face of increasing pressure to respond to North Korea's nuclear posture, South Korea is realistically pursuing capabilities for rapid, precision strikes. North Korea feels similarly.  As Jeffrey always says: both plan on going first in a conflict, but one of them is going to be wrong.   Jeffrey and Aaron walk through President Yoon's statements, the complexities of the...

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Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances show art Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances

Arms Control Wonk

Tyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data.  In one of the most fascinating and technically complex episodes of the ACW pod, Tyler and Mike join Jeffrey to talk about their wild new open-source intelligence tool, how it works, and what it means for missile and rocket observation.    A visualization of their work can be seen here: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1593452159365918722?s=20&t=hAI_EJvR8zCRMqj9u36yuw And, of...

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How Sting Likes to Test show art How Sting Likes to Test

Arms Control Wonk

Jeeze that was a big missile. North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un's Bring Your Daughter to Work Day, and the incredible Missile Launch Detection tool that @tylerni7 and @michaelnute have spearheaded in the ACW Slack channel.  Support us over at !

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New New START or New Finish? show art New New START or New Finish?

Arms Control Wonk

The Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you restart heavily managed talks in an era of COVID restrictions? How do you do on-site inspections during a conventional conflict?  Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the rough state of international nuclear arms control, the increasingly-complex balance of nuclear forces globally, and the core aspects of what makes deterrence actually work.    Support...

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More Episodes

In mid-April, Russia tested a direct ascent anti-satellite missile (DA ASAT), the Nudol/PL19, against a point in space.

Anti-satellite weapons are an old favorite of the pod, so Anne, Aaron, and Jeffrey meet to discuss the history of anti-satellite weapons, the U.S. negotiating strategy that led to the spread of hit-to-kill and anti-satellite weapons, and the hypocrisy of certain PR statements. They also gush over open-source collection and analysis of NOTAMs, which allowed Michael Thompson to predict the ASAT test ahead of time.

Check out previous Arms Control Wonk episodes about Hit-to-Kill and Anti-Satellite Weapons:

2019's Mission Shakti: The Indian Anti-Satellite Test

2016's China's HQ-19 Hit-to-Kill Interceptor

2014's Satellites Under Threat: The Spread of Hit-To-Kill

 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!