Arms Control Wonk

The nuclear weapons, arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation podcast. Companion to the popular Arms Control Wonk blog (www.armscontrolwonk.com)

Iran's October Missile Raid 10/03/2024

Iran's October Missile Raid Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we're still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at what we can learn about the state of the Iranian offensive missile arsenal, weight what Iran's options for next steps are, and dive into the internal nuclear politics of both Israel and Iran. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/33307882

Busting the Burevestnik 09/18/2024

Busting the Burevestnik Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite imagery. It appears to be about 300 miles north of Mosco, near a national-level nuclear storage facility. Decker and Jeffrey talk through Decker's methodology for identifying the storage facility, why Russia may deploy such a dangerous system so close to major cities, and the bureaucratic politics that could be driving the development of this bizarre weapon. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/33115187

TYPHON, FATHER OF MONSTERS 06/24/2024

TYPHON, FATHER OF MONSTERS Jeffrey and his team have been OSINT'ing the heck out of the deployment of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) ((Typhon Smurf?)) to the Philippines, and tracked down the airport and deployment zone. Recently the U.S. Army deployed the new Typhon SMRF system to the Philippines as part of an exercise, raising the ire of both the Russian and Chinese governments. The Army seemed to try and keep it relatively low profile initially but the Philippines just....tweeted it out basically. As the Pacific continues to bristle with missiles, Jeffrey and Aaron talk about regional escalation dynamics, who is buying what missiles, and who they are (or aren't?) actually pointed at... Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/31874492

Russian Entanglement 06/24/2024

Russian Entanglement Tom Schelling described escalation as a "curved slope" where you won't be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down at the intersection of "legitimate conventional military target" and "direct cause of nuclear escalation" to talk about the risks and justifications for bringing EW systems into a conflict, and discuss James Acton's idea of modern entanglement, and the connection between modern conventional and nuclear operations. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/31874147

Iran and Israel's Missile War 05/18/2024

Iran and Israel's Missile War We have data! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through the new primary source data to figure out if either Iran's missile raid or Israeli's missile defense efforts were effective. This appears to be the first time that successful wartime ballistic missile defense intercepts can be validated via open source means, which is a major step forward for open source missile and BMD analysis. Jeffrey and Aaron also talk about the relative impact of conventional ballistic missiles, and what secondary effects must be considered when assessing the value of interceptors vs. offensive missiles. This one gets wonky. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/31366057

Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment 04/17/2024

Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask yourself "Well, how did I get here?" Letting the days go by, politics will hold you down Letting the days go by, heavy water underground Into Fordow again, maybe to Isfahan Once in a lifetime, realignment all around Same as it ever was, Same as it ever was Jeffrey and Aaron go through the current state of play in Iranian politics (just prior to its massive missile strike on Israel), particularly around the nuclear program and what the bomb genuinely means for security and Iranian internal politics, and review how we got here over the past 20 years of Arms Control Wonkery. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/30862288

Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque 04/10/2024

Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque William joins Jeffrey for a friendly and deep debate about the Russian Navy nuclear documents leaked to FT, covered in our . This is a fascinating discussion not only on the documents themselves, but what they imply for Russia's view of its own territorial integrity, what it needs to convince its soldiers to go to bat for, and the eternal issues of "self-deterrence". Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/30768698

Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 03/10/2024

Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times Max Seddon and Chris Cook with the Financial Times have on leaked Russian Naval documents that FT saw, focused on thresholds for Russian nuclear use, especially in a war scenario with China. Jeffrey and Aaron go through what the documents reveal and debate if they're generally consistant with what is understood about Russian nuclear doctrine or, as FT states, indicate that the threshold is lower than previous understood. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/30311428

Jeffrey Visits the Test Site 02/19/2024

Jeffrey Visits the Test Site Road trip to Vegas. As part of an NGO transparency visit, NNSA opened up the Nevada Test Site to a group of international nuclear weapons experts, including one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. Jeffrey goes through what he saw: P Tunnel, The BEEF, and the crown jewel, U1a. This was an NNSA exercise in transparency, aimed at showing the community and world that the U.S. stockpile stewardship and treaty verification exercises are separate from nuclear explosive tests. It was also, and we cannot underline this enough, extremely cool. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/30016133

Russia Buys North Korean Missiles 01/17/2024

Russia Buys North Korean Missiles Shoigu went shopping. Russia is buying KN-23 and KN-25 missiles from North Korea and launching them in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Imagery from on the ground clearly shows North Korean style solid-propellant missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what this means for global ballistic missile proliferation, possible South Korean responses, and the continued rise of North Korea as a ballistic missile exporter. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/29521218

North Korea's New Satellite 11/28/2023

North Korea's New Satellite North Korea finally got a reconnaissance satellite into orbit, after several failed prior attempts! While it is a little rough around the edges, every program has to start somewhere. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the implications of the DPRK's reconnaissance satellite, the relationship of the DPRK missile and space programs, and the importance of high fashion for the spacelaunching elites. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/28817913

The Reason We're all Still Here 10/14/2023

The Reason We're all Still Here Take a listen to the latest season of Jeffrey Lewis's podcast, Far too often, governments behave like toddlers. They’re fickle. They don’t like to share. And good luck getting them to pay attention to any problem that isn’t directly in front of them. They like to push each other to the brink, and often do. But when they don’t, it’s usually because other people enter the proverbial room. Private citizens who step up and play peacemaker when their governments won’t or can’t. People who strive for collaboration and understanding, and sometimes end up finding it in unlikely places. Those people and the work they do, they’re the reason we’re all still here. This season, we’ll hear from scientists, analysts, and idealists who have gone to crazy lengths just for a shot at making peace and building understanding From smoke-filled rooms in North Korea to secret labs in the Soviet Union… to the lawless seas, and even to the depths of outer space (or, at least, the conference rooms where they talk about the depths of outer space). This podcast tells the stories about the people holding us back from the brink. Hosted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a professor and scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies on the Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies faculty. Previously, he served as Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation and Executive Director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He is the founder of ArmsControlWonk.com, a leading resource on disarmament, arms control and nonproliferation issues. Produced by Gilded Audio and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/28316471

Shenanigans in Novaya Zemlya 10/11/2023

Shenanigans in Novaya Zemlya Looks like everyone is preparing for a party. Between Russia's potential un-signing of a nuclear test treaty, threats to test "if the United States does," and refurbishments at Novaya Zemlya, things aren't looking great for the longevity of nuclear test ban norms. China and the U.S. have been modernizing too, though the U.S. has offered to allow monitors on-site to verify U.S. lack of testing. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down to talk about the recent developments in Russia, and the likelyhood that there will be a return to explosive nuclear testing in the future. The Era Without Arms Control continues, and threatens to deepen. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/28293824

Kim Jong Un's Excellent Adventure 08/17/2023

Kim Jong Un's Excellent Adventure Sam Lair joins the podcast to talk about Kim Jong Un's recent whirlwind tour of the North Korean Defense Industrial Base with Jeffrey and Scott. If you're into missiles, geolocation, and machine tools (and, if you listen to this podcast, you probably are), you're going to want to tune in. Sam and Jeffrey have been mapping out the DPRK DIB, including plant managers, machine tool lineages, production lines, and evolutions over time. Kim's visit to these plants, and the accompanying KCNA imagery storm, unlocked a trove of new information about where nuclear delivery systems are produced and maintained, and updated our ideas for how big the arsenal may be. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/27783354

Oppenheimer 08/07/2023

Oppenheimer Jeffrey is joined by the illustrious Kelsey Atherton to discuss Christopher Nolan's film Oppenheimer, as well as the history and legacy of the titular man himself. Kelsey and Jeffrey dive into the choice to focus on Oppenheimer's own security legacy and bypass the direct and indirect horrors affected upon the Congolese miners, New Mexicans, and Japanese civilians, as well as the intentional rendering of power politics and personal animus within the U.S. security apparatus. Kelsey penned a , talking about the wider related experience of watching Barbie and Oppenheimer in the same day. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/27686544

Hiroshima 2023 08/05/2023

Hiroshima 2023 Jeffrey is back from Hiroshima, where he participated in a Track 2 nuclear dialogue. The outlook for near-term arms control is still grim. Jeffrey and Aaron unpack the G7 statements on disarmament that the Japanese representatives wanted to re-affirm, the tacit condemnation of Russian and Chinese contained within, and the global theater around narrative control of arms control. Russian, US, and third party interpretations of CTBT and disarmament discussions create significant friction, but the discussion is well moderated by the traditional 5:00 happy hour. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/27667803

What the F*** Do They Think the Russians are Going to Shoot at Them?! 07/18/2023

What the F*** Do They Think the Russians are Going to Shoot at Them?! Germany has a gap that needs to be filled in the face of Russian threats. But this time it isn't Fulda, it is....the exoatmospheric layer of ballistic missile defenses? Jeffrey and Aaron try to understand Germany's decision to buy the very fancy Israeli/American Arrow-3 exoatmospheric BMD system, in absense of a specific Russian missile system and despite two Aegis Ashore sites coming online in Europe. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/27503532

Failure to Launch 07/06/2023

Failure to Launch Jeffrey is back from Japan and North Korea's satellite-turned-submarine is back from the bottom of the ocean! North Korea's failed Chollima-1 space launcher and its payload, the Malligyong-1, failed to reach space on May 30. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the Japanese response to the launch, the North Korean reponse to the failure, and whether or not people are tacitly starting to accept North Korean space capabilities. Are the DPRK's space capabilities overlapping with their missile capabilities? How far have their technological arcs diverged, and where are they still overlapping? And is the Chollima-1's second stage a stolen Ukrainian design, or something new and domestic? Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/27393705

Shangri-la Dialogue with Ankit Panda 06/12/2023

Shangri-la Dialogue with Ankit Panda Ankit Panda joins Jeffrey by the every so fancy pool at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where they talk about competing speeches and messaging, the views on US-China competition from Southeast Asia, and about how Jeffrey didn't make any new friends in the PLA this year. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/27129573

The CAT I is Out of the Bag 05/21/2023

The CAT I is Out of the Bag Ukraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that's raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally address, and the whole host of problems associated with figuring out what a destabilizing cruise missile really looks like. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/26905461

The Washington Declaration 05/06/2023

The Washington Declaration President Yoon of South Korea recently visited the United States to talk nukes and Don McLean with President Biden. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through what the Declaration actually covers, how much was material and how much was fluff, and the moonwalking capabilities of the D5 SLBM. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/26762493

FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18 04/15/2023

FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18 FINALLY. After almost a decade of hinting and teasing and parading fake empty canisters, North Korea has debuted its long-awated solid propellant ICBM. And the team have some questions about where the construction and testing sites were... Jeffrey, Scott, and Dave descend upon the CNS DC offices for a rare in-person podcast to commemorate the event we've been waiting on for years. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/26552190

Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom 03/21/2023

Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom The IAEA is doing a great job with the s**t we're handing them. A very jetlagged Jeffrey joins Aaron to talk about the IAEA and the very positive role that Director General Rafael Grossi has played in trying to hold together the nuclear situation with Iran. JCPOA-holdover cameras, discontinuity in footage, and a bunch of suddenly friendliness from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia all make for a tense and confusing situation. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/26298306

The Actual Demise of New START 03/09/2023

The Actual Demise of New START New START has been in peril for years. The first episode of the pod was about the INF Treaty being in danger, and here we are, 8 years later, with almost no arms control treaties left. Maybe it is time to rename the pod Arms Race Wonk, because the next few years are going to be scary. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the Era Without (Bilateral) Arms Control, the immanent two-front deterrence challenge, and how being scared as **** is the only way we know deterrence is working. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/26172456

Another North Korean Missile Parade 02/10/2023

Another North Korean Missile Parade Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott say the unthinkable: we're a little tired of the parades. But we're glad the youthes are still ordering pizza and crowding around the computer to watch. North Korea paraded at least 15 ICBMs, including 4 that were clearly meant to look like solid-propellent ICBMs. We've been down this road before, they've played with our hearts. But now we're in the era where a solid ICBM is very possible, and a solid ICBM test is expected. The team talks about what got paraded, what the solid propellant ICBMs mean, the end of several long-running ACW threads, and Scott gets real excited about big trucks. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/25895199

One of Them is Wrong About That 01/16/2023

One of Them is Wrong About That Both plan on going first, but... President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little). In the face of increasing pressure to respond to North Korea's nuclear posture, South Korea is realistically pursuing capabilities for rapid, precision strikes. North Korea feels similarly. As Jeffrey always says: both plan on going first in a conflict, but one of them is going to be wrong. Jeffrey and Aaron walk through President Yoon's statements, the complexities of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, and the instabilities that result from mutual pre-emptive strike postures. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/25625499

Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances 12/21/2022

Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances Tyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data. In one of the most fascinating and technically complex episodes of the ACW pod, Tyler and Mike join Jeffrey to talk about their wild new open-source intelligence tool, how it works, and what it means for missile and rocket observation. A visualization of their work can be seen here: https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1593452159365918722?s=20&t=hAI_EJvR8zCRMqj9u36yuw And, of course, shout out to the ACW Slack Channel, wherin Tyler and Mike started this project. Tyler and Mike can be found on twitter at: and Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/25391088

How Sting Likes to Test 12/03/2022

How Sting Likes to Test Jeeze that was a big missile. North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un's Bring Your Daughter to Work Day, and the incredible Missile Launch Detection tool that @tylerni7 and @michaelnute have spearheaded in the ACW Slack channel. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/25210170

New New START or New Finish? 11/13/2022

New New START or New Finish? The Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you restart heavily managed talks in an era of COVID restrictions? How do you do on-site inspections during a conventional conflict? Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the rough state of international nuclear arms control, the increasingly-complex balance of nuclear forces globally, and the core aspects of what makes deterrence actually work. Support us over at ! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/24991398

The Lake-Bed Missile 11/10/2022

The Lake-Bed Missile Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Aaron and Jeffrey talk about North Korea's record-setting number of missile launches and what the North Korean launch authorities look like. A new(?) ICBM, a new Hwasong-12 variant, the bizarre reservoir-bottom lake-missile, and a whole lotta rocket artillery are all keeping the community *very* busy... Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! /episode/index/show/armscontrolwonk/id/24962004

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