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Russia's Nudol Anti-Satellite Missile Test

Arms Control Wonk

Release Date: 05/01/2020

Iran's October Missile Raid show art Iran's October Missile Raid

Arms Control Wonk

Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we're still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at what we can learn about the state of the Iranian offensive missile arsenal, weight what Iran's options for next steps are, and dive into the internal nuclear politics of both Israel and Iran. Support us over at !

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Busting the Burevestnik show art Busting the Burevestnik

Arms Control Wonk

Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite imagery. It appears to be about 300 miles north of Mosco, near a national-level nuclear storage facility.  Decker and Jeffrey talk through Decker's methodology for identifying the storage facility, why Russia may deploy such a dangerous system so close to major cities, and the bureaucratic politics that could be driving the development of this bizarre weapon.  Support us over...

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TYPHON, FATHER OF MONSTERS show art TYPHON, FATHER OF MONSTERS

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Jeffrey and his team have been OSINT'ing the heck out of the deployment of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) ((Typhon Smurf?)) to the Philippines, and tracked down the airport and deployment zone. Recently the U.S. Army deployed the new Typhon SMRF system to the Philippines as part of an exercise, raising the ire of both the Russian and Chinese governments. The Army seemed to try and keep it relatively low profile initially but the Philippines just....tweeted it out basically.  As the Pacific continues to bristle with missiles, Jeffrey and Aaron talk about regional escalation...

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Russian Entanglement show art Russian Entanglement

Arms Control Wonk

Tom Schelling described escalation as a "curved slope" where you won't be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down at the intersection of "legitimate conventional military target" and "direct cause of nuclear escalation" to talk about the risks and justifications for bringing EW systems into a conflict, and discuss James Acton's idea of modern entanglement, and the connection between modern conventional and nuclear operations. Support us over at !

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Iran and Israel's Missile War show art Iran and Israel's Missile War

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We have data! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through the new primary source data to figure out if either Iran's missile raid or Israeli's missile defense efforts were effective. This appears to be the first time that successful wartime ballistic missile defense intercepts can be validated via open source means, which is a major step forward for open source missile and BMD analysis.  Jeffrey and Aaron also talk about the relative impact of conventional ballistic missiles, and what secondary effects must be considered when assessing the value of interceptors vs. offensive missiles.  This one...

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Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment show art Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment

Arms Control Wonk

not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask yourself "Well, how did I get here?"    Letting the days go by, politics will hold you down  Letting the days go by, heavy water underground  Into Fordow again, maybe to Isfahan Once in a lifetime, realignment all around   Same as it ever was, Same as it ever was   Jeffrey and Aaron go through the current state...

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Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque show art Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque

Arms Control Wonk

William joins Jeffrey for a friendly and deep debate about the Russian Navy nuclear documents leaked to FT, covered in our . This is a fascinating discussion not only on the documents themselves, but what they imply for Russia's view of its own territorial integrity, what it needs to convince its soldiers to go to bat for, and the eternal issues of "self-deterrence".   Support us over at !

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Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times show art Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times

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Max Seddon and Chris Cook with the Financial Times have on leaked Russian Naval documents that FT saw, focused on thresholds for Russian nuclear use, especially in a war scenario with China.  Jeffrey and Aaron go through what the documents reveal and debate if they're generally consistant with what is understood about Russian nuclear doctrine or, as FT states, indicate that the threshold is lower than previous understood.   Support us over at !

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Jeffrey Visits the Test Site show art Jeffrey Visits the Test Site

Arms Control Wonk

Road trip to Vegas. As part of an NGO transparency visit, NNSA opened up the Nevada Test Site to a group of international nuclear weapons experts, including one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. Jeffrey goes through what he saw: P Tunnel, The BEEF, and the crown jewel, U1a. This was an NNSA exercise in transparency, aimed at showing the community and world that the U.S. stockpile stewardship and treaty verification exercises are separate from nuclear explosive tests. It was also, and we cannot underline this enough, extremely cool. Support us over at !

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Russia Buys North Korean Missiles show art Russia Buys North Korean Missiles

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Shoigu went shopping.  Russia is buying KN-23 and KN-25 missiles from North Korea and launching them in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Imagery from on the ground clearly shows North Korean style solid-propellant missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what this means for global ballistic missile proliferation, possible South Korean responses, and the continued rise of North Korea as a ballistic missile exporter. Support us over at !

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More Episodes

In mid-April, Russia tested a direct ascent anti-satellite missile (DA ASAT), the Nudol/PL19, against a point in space.

Anti-satellite weapons are an old favorite of the pod, so Anne, Aaron, and Jeffrey meet to discuss the history of anti-satellite weapons, the U.S. negotiating strategy that led to the spread of hit-to-kill and anti-satellite weapons, and the hypocrisy of certain PR statements. They also gush over open-source collection and analysis of NOTAMs, which allowed Michael Thompson to predict the ASAT test ahead of time.

Check out previous Arms Control Wonk episodes about Hit-to-Kill and Anti-Satellite Weapons:

2019's Mission Shakti: The Indian Anti-Satellite Test

2016's China's HQ-19 Hit-to-Kill Interceptor

2014's Satellites Under Threat: The Spread of Hit-To-Kill

 

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