137 - Expand Your Time Horizon
The DIY Investing Podcast
Want Investing Research Directly to your Inbox? Sign-up for my Free Substack: Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Delayed Gratification Time Horizon Personal Responsbility Compounding
info_outline
136 - Selling Stocks for Value Investors (Part 1: Strategy Matters)
The DIY Investing Podcast
Want Investing Research Directly to your Inbox? Sign-up for my Free Substack: Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Second-Order Effects Mean Reversion Factor Investing Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Show Outline Selling Series A lot of time is spent on buying stocks. Yet, almost just as important, if not more is knowing when to...
info_outline
135 - Investing in the Face of Uncertainty
The DIY Investing Podcast
Want Investing Research Directly to your Inbox? Sign-up for my Free Substack: Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Second-Order Effects Mean Reversion Factor Investing Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Show Outline Today’s podcast will focus on a single precept: You can’t predict the future First and Second Order Effects ...
info_outline
134 - Dollar Cost Averaging into Individual Stocks
The DIY Investing Podcast
Want Investing Research Directly to your Inbox? Sign-up for my Free Substack: Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Look-Through Earnings Dollar Cost Averaging Earnings Yield Opportunity Cost Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel:
info_outline
133 - How to Solve the Dead Money Problem?
The DIY Investing Podcast
Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Dead Money Opportunity Cost Time is Money Intrinsic Value Compounding Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Show Outline The Dead Money Problem and Solution “If you remember only one thing today: Time is Money” What is Dead Money? Any asset you own that is not growing intrinsic value...
info_outline
132 - Is it better to pay management fees or performance fees?
The DIY Investing Podcast
Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Incentives Skin-in-the-Game Accredited vs non-Accredited Investors Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Show Outline Key Concepts for thinking about compensating a Portfolio Manager Management Fees Management Fees are priced a percentage of the assets under management. A 1% management...
info_outline
131 - How to choose an Investment Manager?
The DIY Investing Podcast
Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Opportunity Cost Alpha Superpower of Incentives Competitive Advantages Process vs Results Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Show Outline Key Concepts for selecting a Portfolio Manager Choosing an investment manager is a lot like choosing a stock Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand...
info_outline
130 - How to invest during a crisis?
The DIY Investing Podcast
Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Stress Testing Time Horizon Stoicism Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Show Outline The full show notes for this episode are available at Key Concepts for Investing during a Crisis Stress Testing - Bankruptcy Risk? Goal: Survive Stress test businesses not stocks Focus on Fundamentals ...
info_outline
129 - What is the role of a Catalyst in Value Investing?
The DIY Investing Podcast
Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Catalyst Activation Energy Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Support the Podcast on Patreon This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at . Show Outline...
info_outline
128 - Key Investing Ratios: P/E, P/S, ROA, ROE, Gross Margin
The DIY Investing Podcast
Mental Models discussed in this podcast: Investing Ratios Break Points Please review and rate the podcast If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience. Follow me on Twitter and YouTube Twitter Handle: YouTube Channel: Support the Podcast on Patreon This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at . Show...
info_outlineMental Models discussed in this podcast:
- Deflation
- Inflation
Please review and rate the podcast
If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience.
Follow me on Twitter and YouTube
Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger
YouTube Channel: DIY Investing
Support the Podcast on Patreon
This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at DIYInvesting.org/Patron.
You can find out more information by listening to episode 11 of this podcast.
Show Outline
The full show notes for this episode are available at https://www.diyinvesting.org/Episode103
The Deflation Myth
Deflation is considered bad because economists assume that consumers will hold off making purchases with the expectation that prices will decline in the future.
My rebuttal: This just doesn't happen.
The "rational consumer" doesn't exist. This is why you have a whole field called 'behavioral economics.'
For whom is deflation bad?
Deflation is bad for debtors (Those in Debt)
- Governments (because they are all debtors)
- Leveraged Companies
- Companies with pricing power
For whom is deflation good?
Creditors (Those who lend money to others)
Those without debt (Whether people or companies)
Companies without pricing power. (Simply holding prices stable will lead to increasing profits)
The Myth of "Stable Pricing"
Stable is 0% inflation, not 2% inflation as the US Federal Reserve would like you to accept.
Summary:
The Deflation Myth has been accepted primarily because economists have used false assumptions in their analysis and because debtors, namely world governments, tend to hold massive political and cultural power. It is in their best interest to convince you that deflation is bad so that they can inflate away their debts. Yet, most investors are harmed more by inflation than they would be by deflation.