107 - Investing Goals for 2021
The DIY Investing Podcast
In this episode, I outline my top investing goals for the new year. I aim to identify 2 new companies worth buying and my goal is to attain a 20%+ annual return for 2021. I also cover process-based goals relating to how to go about investing research. Finally, I would like to pass the Series 65 exam so that I can begin managing money for outside clients.
info_outline
106 - When to Sell Stocks
The DIY Investing Podcast
Many value investors lack a clear strategy on when to sell stocks in their portfolio. This decision ought to be based on opportunity cost, potential investment mistakes, intrinsic value, and return differential between old and new companies.
info_outline
105 - Investing vs Speculation vs Gambling
The DIY Investing Podcast
An investment is any investment operation that utilizes a margin of safety, provides an adequate return of 10% or more, earns that return from fundamental cash flows, is a positive-sum game, and bounded by a range of prices and terms.
info_outline
104 - Terminal Value and Why Intrinsic Value grows over time
The DIY Investing Podcast
Terminal Value is the net present value of all future cash flows discounted back to a specific year in the future. Intrinsic value is fixed, but your estimate of intrinsic value will change over time.
info_outline
103 - The Deflation Myth
The DIY Investing Podcast
The Deflation Myth has been accepted primarily because economists have used false assumptions in their analysis and because debtors, namely world governments, tend to hold massive political and cultural power. It is in their best interest to convince you that deflation is bad so that they can inflate away their debts. Yet, most investors are harmed more by inflation than they would be by deflation.
info_outline
102 - Don't use Enterprise Value - Here's Why
The DIY Investing Podcast
Be conservative when valuing companies. Don't give managers credit where they don't deserve it. Enterprise value should only be used when companies hold debt. Yet, you should only buy companies with net cash.
info_outline
101 - How to find good stock ideas (FAQ)
The DIY Investing Podcast
The best way to identify good stock ideas is to copy a watchlist of investors you trust and respect. Their best ideas can form a strong foundation for your watchlist.
info_outline
100 - Special Edition: Reflecting after 100 episodes
The DIY Investing Podcast
As I reflect on my first 100 episodes of The DIY Investing Podcast, I want to hear from you my audience. Share your thoughts and feedback so the next 100 episodes are even better.
info_outline
99 - OTC Manual Database with Jan Svenda and David Flood
The DIY Investing Podcast
I interview two guests in today's show: Jan Svenda of SvendaManual.com and David Flood of ElementaryValue.com. We discuss their new product, an OTC Manual database for finding stock ideas.
info_outline
98 - Value Stock Geek Interview: Wonderful Companies at Wonderful Prices
The DIY Investing Podcast
In my third interview with Value Stock Geek, we discuss his effort to transform his investing process in light of COVID-19 and recognition of past mistakes. His new goal is to buy wonderful companies at wonderful prices. No compromises.
info_outlineMental Models discussed in this podcast:
- Deflation
- Inflation
Please review and rate the podcast
If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience.
Follow me on Twitter and YouTube
Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger
YouTube Channel: DIY Investing
Support the Podcast on Patreon
This is a podcast supported by listeners like you. If you’d like to support this podcast and help me to continue creating great investing content, please consider becoming a Patron at DIYInvesting.org/Patron.
You can find out more information by listening to episode 11 of this podcast.
Show Outline
The full show notes for this episode are available at https://www.diyinvesting.org/Episode103
The Deflation Myth
Deflation is considered bad because economists assume that consumers will hold off making purchases with the expectation that prices will decline in the future.
My rebuttal: This just doesn't happen.
The "rational consumer" doesn't exist. This is why you have a whole field called 'behavioral economics.'
For whom is deflation bad?
Deflation is bad for debtors (Those in Debt)
- Governments (because they are all debtors)
- Leveraged Companies
- Companies with pricing power
For whom is deflation good?
Creditors (Those who lend money to others)
Those without debt (Whether people or companies)
Companies without pricing power. (Simply holding prices stable will lead to increasing profits)
The Myth of "Stable Pricing"
Stable is 0% inflation, not 2% inflation as the US Federal Reserve would like you to accept.
Summary:
The Deflation Myth has been accepted primarily because economists have used false assumptions in their analysis and because debtors, namely world governments, tend to hold massive political and cultural power. It is in their best interest to convince you that deflation is bad so that they can inflate away their debts. Yet, most investors are harmed more by inflation than they would be by deflation.