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Forget Oil! Matt Warder Says Coal Is the Real Play!

In it to Win it

Release Date: 07/26/2025

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More Episodes

Matt Warder of Sea Wolf Research joins Steve Barton to deliver a sharp update on the coal market’s evolving macro landscape. He explains how summer demand, LNG export growth, and rising U.S. power prices are shaping met and thermal coal pricing. Warder notes how Chinese steel production and potential capacity cuts are critical catalysts that could drive prices further, especially as restocking season approaches.

Key companies discussed include Warrior Met Coal (HCC), Core Natural Resources (CNR), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), and Ramaco Resources (METC). Warder also shares his current positioning and views on equity performance, short interest, and risk strategies in the sector. He flags the importance of shareholder returns and highlights recent developments in the BTU–Anglo deal and the potential re-rating of Glencore.

The episode touches on junior coal plays like Colonial Coal and Forge Resources, the return of Mongolian miners, and the unexpected conversation around restarting U.S. coal plants amid rising energy demand. Warder’s analysis is deeply rooted in real-time data, technicals, and supply-demand fundamentals.

 

Connect with Matt Warder!

Twitter: https://x.com/mfwarder

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mfwarder/

Substack: https://substack.com/@seawolfresearch

 

🔥 Key Topics Discussed

✅ Joe Mazumdar’s transition from geologist to mining analyst

✅ Argentina's improving investment climate for mining

✅ Pan American and Abra Silver project outlooks

✅ Top commodities: gold, silver, copper, uranium

✅ M&A activity in Mexico and Latin America

✅ Benefits of royalty and streaming models

✅ Exploration strategy and risk for new investors

✅ Origin Royalty’s growth and market success

✅ What’s inside the Exploration Insights newsletter

 

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Chapters:

00:00 Welcome back with Matt Warder from Sea Wolf Research 

05:46 LNG exports and U.S. natural gas impact on coal 

07:14 Thermal coal demand and oil price connection 

07:49 China steel exports and met coal implications 

15:29 Warrior Met Coal macro and chart breakdown 

18:07 Coal stock trend analysis and market sentiment 

19:31 Warrior vs AMR outlook and Blue Creek update 

21:46 NRP capital returns and shareholder expectations 

23:20 BTU macro outlook and asset deal discussion 

30:28 BTU valuation scenarios with and without Anglo assets 

31:09 Whitehaven and Australian coal stock perspectives 

35:31 Colonial Coal sale outlook and valuation 

37:09 AMR acquisition speculation and buyer hesitation 

37:59 Forge Resources intro and strategic role 

41:44 Junior coal exploration landscape and prospects 

42:56 Emerging market coal players and national strategy 

46:31 Glencore positioning and Elk Valley earnout 

48:45 U.S. coal plant restarts and electricity supply 

54:03 Best coal stock pick for retail investors 

56:43 LNG exposure and energy sector plays 

59:35 Alliance Resource Partners investment view 

01:02:40 Final thoughts and coal market outlook 

 

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.

WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.

AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning, at NO additional cost to you, the show may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, this does not impact my opinion. I recommend them because they are helpful and useful, not because I am looking for the small commission. Thank you for using the links.

 

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