ARGS SPRING 2026 -Powerd by AI

Trying to predict the outlook for commercial
aviation is a fool’s game. The only real
certainty, is that there will be uncertainty.
And so it has proved again. The backdrop to this year had looked relatively encouraging for the aviation industry, albeit with the
headwinds that have clipped growth in the sector
remaining. These include disruption to trade flows amid tariffs and countermeasures, ongoing aircraft and engine availability issues, and continued pockets of conflict and geopolitical disruption – not least the war in Ukraine, which has now entered its fifth year.
Yet these were challenges airlines and the air travel market had adapted to, learnt to live with and – for the aircraft and engine shortage at least – had reason to believe the industry might be over the worst. However, the Israeli and US air strikes on Iran and the latter’s subsequent retaliatory action has caused
another rupture in the aviation industry, notably
reaching points in the Gulf that had previously
seemed immune when problems previously flared in the region. Such has been the growth of the Gulf carriers and their hubs, that their closure – even if only temporarily – is felt across the global industry. In the near-term, airline network planners have swiftly adapted to the resulting new traffic flow trends, be they positive or negative, as travellers adjusted their
plans and sought alternatives to the Gulf hubs for eastwest routings. It remains to be seen how long these short-term adaptions will last.
The related pressure on fuel costs weighs heavy on airlines, too. Oil prices have surged since the Iran hostilities began; the barrel price of Brent crude oil passing the $100 mark for the first time in three and a half years. It was partly the benign price of oil which helped fuel airline profits last year. Any protracted rise in fuel costs
will likely result in greater capacity caution ahead.
The fuel price also intersects with the ongoing
aircraft and engine supply chain issues, in that one of the mitigating actions to offset delayed deliveries and increased engine maintenance requirements was to keep operating less fuel-efficient older aircraft for longer.
Higher fuel costs mean the economics of this solution may no longer add up for some carriers.
The crisis, then, is a reminder of how connected
the aviation industry remains, even in areas relatively removed from the crisis flash points. Routes Americas was held in Brazil at the start of March and Latin America felt about as “business as usual” a part of the world as it was possible to find. Latin America’s airline industry largely thrived in 2025, increasing passenger numbers 7% and returning to a collective profit. Notably, Brazil’s big three carriers have now all completed financial restructurings and are eyeing profitable growth ahead. The extent to which they can do so this year may yet, though, depend on how events in the Middle East play out.