A Pod of Dynamite
Arms Control Wonk
Jeffrey and Scott watched the new Kathryn Bigelow movie "House of Dynamite" and they both have opinions. The crew talks through both the artistic choices as well as the wonky details. "House of Dynamite" is an interesting take on missile defense and decisionmaking that doesn't quite commit enough to any philosophical or strategic camp, but ultimately may be the lens through which a lot of non-wonks view or interact with missile defenses, conceptually, as we move towards a potential major expansion of US missile defenses. We should do a watch party. Support us over at !
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A Return to Nuclear Testing
Arms Control Wonk
Donald Trump directed "the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" with other countries. The Department of War doesn't test nuclear weapons, the Department of Energy does all the time in lots of different ways. Some people worried this meant a return to explosive testing, others seemed to think it was about delivery systems. Subsequent statements by the Vice President and the Secretary of Defense didn't clarify things. Aaron and Jeffrey sit down to try to make some sense of it all. Support us over at !
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Pentagon Blocks Ukraine Strikes
Arms Control Wonk
Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn't, and what it all mean. Hint: Allies should stand up their own targeting capabilities. Watch the video episode ! Support us over at !
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Fly Burevestnik Fly!
Arms Control Wonk
The Slack channel noticed that Russia was gearing up to test the SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile (aka Burevestnik), which Jeffrey and co. confirmed with satellite images. Reuters picked it up, noting how awkward all this was coming, as it did, just as Putin flew to Alaska to meet with Donald Trump. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the OSINT and the political implications. Watch the video episode ! Support us over at !
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Iran’s Pathway to the Bomb
Arms Control Wonk
Aaron and Jeffrey finally deconflict their schedules to talk about the outcome of the Israeli-Iranian war, Iran’s pathway back to the bomb, and why they’re both irritated with the “fix it or nix it crowd.” Support us over at !
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Israel Strikes Iran
Arms Control Wonk
Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest new from Iran, where Israel has been launching strike on leadership, nuclear, and missile targets. Support us over at !
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The Pahalgam Panic
Arms Control Wonk
In what seems like clockwork, India and Pakistan fought an “almost war” recently, prompting concerns about the risk of nuclear war. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to talk about the crisis, the meaning of deterrence, and how it worked during this recent flare up. Watch the video pod over on ! Support us over at !
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Don't Say JCPOA
Arms Control Wonk
The Trump administration appears to be willing to return to the JCPOA, so long as you do not call it the JCPOA. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest back and forth with Iran and what’s at stake with the return to nuclear negotiations. Watch the video pod over on Support us over at !
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Brilliant Swarms
Arms Control Wonk
Aaron and Jeffrey sat down for their first video podcast to discuss the cost of Brilliant Swarm, the name du moment of Brilliant Pebbles, aka space based missile defense. Watch the video pod over on Support us over at !
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Orbital Collisions
Arms Control Wonk
Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest news about anti-satellite warfare and why bumping and grinding in the cosmos is back en vogue. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
info_outlineNo one has better sources in the U.S. government when it comes to North Korea's missile program than the Diplomat's Ankit Panda.
He joins Jeffrey and Scott to discuss the Hwasong-12, Hwasong-14, a very strange North Korean concert, and Ankit shares some never-before-released data on the Hwasong-12 and some KN designations.
This podcast is a joint release with The Diplomat's Asia Geopolitics Podcast.
New KN-17/Hwasong-12 Data:
Now we know the KN-17 has been tested at least 4 times with 3 failures. Two shots out of Sinpo, one of which failed during flight and one of which tipped over and exploded. One came from Pukchang Airfield and appears to have crashed in the DPRK.
Early reports of DPRK missile ‘pinwheeling’ during a failed test. The details led a lot of analysts (ourselves included) to assume this was the MaRV/Terminally Guided Scud, and thus continue to believe that the KN-17 was said Scud. However, the KN-17 is now known to be the Hwasong-12. The pictures below include some stills that may come from the pinwheel launch.
Designations we discuss:
KN-12: 122mm MRLS
KN-15: Pukguksong-2
KN-16: 240mm MRLS
KN-17: Hwasong-12 IRBM
KN-18: MaRV/Terminally Guided Scud
KN-19: KM-3 Coastal Defense Cruise Missile (Ground Based)
KN-20: Hwasong-14 ICBM
Links of Note:
Ankit Panda’s Twitter Feed
Joshua Pollack’s two articles on aging Russian Early Warning systems and the launch events they have missed.
South Korean lawmaker says ROK intel service doubts that the Hwasong-14 reentry vehicle was successful.
Images of Note:
The new MRLS designations
That nosecap that is bothering Scott so much, posted originally by Joseph Dempsey:
Hwasong-12 launch footage shown at the concert:
