Episode 1 - The Market: Where We Are and How We Got Here

In this introductory episode, Michael and Brad discuss why they decided to create this podcast, to cut through some of the noise and bad information, and to provide local, insightful perspectives on Maryland real estate. They also discuss the recent few years since just before Covid-19 and how the pandemic and other factors influenced what happened in the real estate market.

Episode Highlights

• Brad realizes he's wearing rose-colored glasses
• Is there going to be a housing crash?
• Crystal Ball vs. Magic 8-Ball
• How the local real estate market differs from the national market
• How Covid-19 impacted real estate
• How interest rates and inventory affect affordability
• Why mortgage loans are more stable now
• The difference between 2008 and today
• How employment levels impact the housing market
• How Maryland's job market is a bit more stable than the national market
• How the lack of housing supply is keeping values up
• Why you shouldn't read headlines
• Buy within your budget
• The Long and Winding Road was our high school class theme song
• The 2019 market - our last "normal" benchmark
• Maryland's relative good fortune after Covid-19 hit
• The correlation between the 10-year Treasury rate and mortgage rates
• Quantitative easing versus quantitative tightening
• Covid changed the way we think about work and about home
• Covid also made us crazy about what we were willing to do to buy a home
• How the market made it very difficult especially for first-time home buyers
• How investors, and particularly institutional investors, impacted the market
• How increasing inflation turned the market around
• Increasing rent is a big part of inflation
• The rapid increase of mortgage interest rates in 2022
• Why the gap between the 10-year Treasury and rates is a little wider than where it's typically been
• How important CPI has become
• Hopefully interest rates have hit their height and may moderate by the end of 2023
• Life should get a little easier for homebuyers

Quotes

• "The only thing I know about Boise, Idaho, is Napoleon Dynamite."
• "Not only is [real estate] localized, it's hyper-localized."
• "With regard to home equity, it seems like we've learned a collective lesson."
• "In 2021, 64% of first-time homebuyers had some form of regret."
• "Just because your lender says you can afford X, doesn't mean that you have to spend X. You have to spend within your budget, where you feel comfortable, and don't subject yourself to eating Ramen Noodles (with no disrespect to the fine makers of Ramen Noodles)."
• "Rates stayed low until the last day of 2021. As soon as 2023 began...we saw bonds selling off, and it almost continued unstopped through the first five months of the year. It was not an easy time to be a loan guy."

Hosts

Michael Becker, Sierra Pacific Mortgage
NMLS #200085
[email protected]
[phone] (m) / [phone] (office)

Brad Cox, The Vesta Group of Long & Foster Real Estate
MD Lic #652795
[email protected]
[phone] (m) / [phone] (o)

Links

Michael Becker, Sierra Pacific Mortgage
Brad Cox, The Vesta Group of Long & Foster Real Estate
@berealmdpod