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112: Fulcrum's Suhail Shaikh – Absolute Return Investing, Market Timing and The Role of Luck

Conversations with Institutional Investors

Release Date: 04/29/2025

113: FCLT's Eduard van Gelderen – Long Term Investing, Concentrated Portfolios and Decarbonisation show art 113: FCLT's Eduard van Gelderen – Long Term Investing, Concentrated Portfolios and Decarbonisation

Conversations with Institutional Investors

Eduard van Gelderen is Head of Research for Focusing Capital on the Long Term (FCLT), an organisation that was established in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, or Great Recession as it is known in the US, to move away from a so-called “quarterly capitalism”, which arguably contributed to the crisis, and towards a true long-term mind-set.

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112: Fulcrum's Suhail Shaikh – Absolute Return Investing, Market Timing and The Role of Luck show art 112: Fulcrum's Suhail Shaikh – Absolute Return Investing, Market Timing and The Role of Luck

Conversations with Institutional Investors

Suhail Shaikh is Chief Investment Officer of Fulcrum Asset Management and is the portfolio manager of Fulcrum’s Discretionary Macro and Diversified Absolute Return strategies. In today’s incredibly volatile environment of tariff wars and deglobalisation, investors tend to be more sensitive about the level of their absolute returns, than their performance against the benchmark. In this episode, we delve into the philosophy of absolute return investing, we talk about the role of skill versus luck, the use

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Conversations with Institutional Investors

In episode 111 of the [i3] Podcast, we speak with Michael Weaver, who is the Head of Global Real Assets with the Australian Retirement Trust. We discussed the role of real assets in the context of a multi-asset, pension portfolio, the ever-lurking threat of inflation, the return of office property and more. Please enjoy the show!

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110: Allspring Global Investment's Jamie Newton – Is Now The Time to Add Duration? show art 110: Allspring Global Investment's Jamie Newton – Is Now The Time to Add Duration?

Conversations with Institutional Investors

In episode 110 of the [i3] Podcast, we speak with Jamie Newton, Head of Global Fixed Income Research and Deputy Head of Sustainability at Allspring Global Investments. We discuss why now is a good time to add duration to fixed income portfolios, concerns over the lack of experience with high default rates in private credit and opportunities in data centres and other digital assets. Enjoy the Show!

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109: Is DeepSeek What It Promised To Be? – Will Liang Explains New AI Model show art 109: Is DeepSeek What It Promised To Be? – Will Liang Explains New AI Model

Conversations with Institutional Investors

In episode 109, we are back with Will Liang, Executive Director at MA Financial, to discuss the introduction of DeepSeek and the impact on the future development of artificial intelligence and the global economy. Are tech firms going to scale back their investments due to this low cost model, or is it all a bit of a hype? Enjoy the Show!

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108: Victory Park Capital's Brendan Carroll – Private Credit, Asset-backed Lending, ChatGPT show art 108: Victory Park Capital's Brendan Carroll – Private Credit, Asset-backed Lending, ChatGPT

Conversations with Institutional Investors

Private credit has evolved significantly since the global financial crisis, and Brendan Carroll, Senior Partner at Victory Park Capital, has been at the forefront of that transformation. In this episode, we explore how private credit investments are adapting to meet the needs of insurers, the growing role of asset-backed lending, and why insurance companies are becoming the fastest-growing investor base in the space.

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107: Scott Donald on Governance and Member Meetings show art 107: Scott Donald on Governance and Member Meetings

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In episode 107 of the [i3] Institutional Investment Podcast, we speak with Scott Donald, Associate Professor at the School of Private and Commercial Law of the University of New South Wales, about his research into governance and the now mandatory annual member meetings of superannuation funds.

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106: Tuckwell Family Office's Craig Dandurand show art 106: Tuckwell Family Office's Craig Dandurand

Conversations with Institutional Investors

In episode 106 of the [i3] Institutional Investment Podcast, I speak with Craig Dandurand, Chief Investment Officer of the Tuckwell Family Office. Craig has an impressive career in the investment industry that spans time with US pension fund CalPERS and Australia's the Future Fund. We talked about his background in credit investing, setting up a hedge fund program and the world of private wealth. Enjoy the show!

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105: T. Rowe Price's Jessica Sclafani show art 105: T. Rowe Price's Jessica Sclafani

Conversations with Institutional Investors

In episode 105 of the [i3] Institutional Investment Podcast, we speak with Jessica Sclafani, a Global Retirement Strategist with US fund manager T. Rowe Price, which manages $1.6 trillion in total assets on behalf of clients. Retirement is a more complex phase than wealth accumulation and it needs a more sophisticated approach to deliver good outcomes. Sclafani discusses a 5 dimensional approach to retirement and the tradeoffs that come with choosing a suitable approach

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104: State Super's John Livanas show art 104: State Super's John Livanas

Conversations with Institutional Investors

John Livanas is the Chief Executive Officer of State Super, the $37 billion superannuation fund for public service and public sector workers in NSW. In this episode, we talk about the use of defensive overlays, dealing with the COVID drawdown and machine learning in investments. Enjoy the show!

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More Episodes
Suhail Shaikh is Chief Investment Officer of Fulcrum Asset Management and is the portfolio manager of Fulcrum’s Discretionary Macro and Diversified Absolute Return strategies. In today’s incredibly volatile environment of tariff wars and deglobalisation, investors tend to be more sensitive about the level of their absolute returns, than their performance against the benchmark. In this episode, we delve into the philosophy of absolute return investing, we talk about the role of skill versus luck, the use of Nowcasting, learnings from the COVID-19 pandemic and the ever controversial topic of market timing. Enjoy the show! 02:00 Started off working on the intranet and taught myself HTML 02:30 Internship at Goldman Sachs 03:30 A lot of well-known global macro traders made their money during equity market crashes 05:00 If you are constantly looking for the next accident, then 90 per cent of the time you are wrong. It is important to make money while the sun is still shining 10:00 Crisis risk offset and momentum during COVID 13:30 Leaving the model aside 15:00 Using Nowcasting for analysis 18:30 AI has been more useful to us in portfolio construction, risk management, scenario analysis and stress testing. I’m more sceptical about AI being helpful in alpha generation. 22:30 Behavioural finance and Fulcrum paper: ‘Don’t Bet the Ranch’ 23:30 To determine whether someone is skilled or lucky, look at the number of views they take over time 31:30 Sizing [trades] is a complex topic 33:00 The role of dynamic asset allocation 34:00 “The biggest accidents in asset management happen when, in a draw-down, people don’t know whether they are benchmarked or absolute return” 35:00 “Dynamic asset allocation is market timing” 40:00 Global Macro and the Magnificent Seven 42:00 Bitcoin and momentum strategies 44:30 Some clients explicitly prohibit us from investing in Bitcoin The paper "Don't Bet The Ranch: Hit ratios, asymmetry and breadth" can be found at: https://fulcrumasset.com/insights/investment-insights/dont-bet-the-ranch-hit-ratios-asymmetry-and-breadth/