Reduced Speed Ahead: Outlook for the US Economy
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
Release Date: 06/07/2025
Reduced Speed Ahead: Outlook for the US Economy
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive, we're sharing highlights from our US macroeconomic webinar on May 20, featuring expert commentary from our economics team at S&P Global Market Intelligence. We dive deep into the forecast for the US economy, which faces a slowdown. Projected growth is expected to average just 0.8% per quarter in 2025, raising questions about the potential for a recession. We explain the anatomy of a recession, walking through recent examples, and share our outlook. Our economists also discuss the implications of elevated tariffs, which are contributing to inflationary...
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Drilling Down Into Sector-Specific Tariffs
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam explores the complex landscape of tariffs under the current administration, focusing on the implications of Section 232 reviews. Joined by experts and , the conversation covers the nuances of industry-specific tariffs that impact a wide range of sectors, from steel and aluminum to electronics and pharmaceuticals. Listeners will gain insights into the ongoing tariff negotiations, the potential ramifications for supply chains, and the strategic decisions companies must make in response to these economic shifts. With a keen eye on...
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What's at Stake in Tariff Negotiations
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive podcast, experts from S&P Global Market Intelligence explore the complexities of global trade negotiations and their profound impact on geopolitical relationships. The panel discusses the objectives behind U.S. trade policy, including the implementation of tariffs as negotiation tools and their implications for job markets and elections. Gain a comprehensive understanding of how countries in Southeast Asia and members of the European Union are navigating the dynamic trade environment, striving to maintain economic growth while advocating for reform in the...
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PMI in Focus: Tariff Impact in Asia, UK Labor Market Trends
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's is joined by fellow economists and to explore the latest findings from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. The discussion focuses on the significant impact of recent tariff announcements on the global economy, with a particular emphasis on Asia. Listeners will gain insights into the current state of global goods trade, which has seen a notable decline in manufacturing new export orders—the largest month-on-month reduction since August 2023. The episode also explores the mixed manufacturing output trends...
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How AI Is Influencing Shipping and Supply Chains
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives into the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the shipping and logistics industry. Joined by industry experts and , the discussion covers the distinctions between AI and automation, the current applications of AI in shipping, and the challenges companies face in leveraging this technology. The conversation also touches on future trends, the evolving workforce landscape, and the potential for AI to reshape traditional roles within the industry. Tune in to gain insights on how AI is a tool as well as a...
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Domestic Discontent: Election Aftermath and Upcoming Polls
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
Join host Kristen Hallam and a panel of experts as they discuss the growing concerns of domestic instability impacting countries around the globe. With a focus on the repercussions of the 2024 election cycle, the conversation explores how economic inequality, technological disruptions, and political polarization are reshaping social contracts between governments and citizens. Listeners will gain valuable insights into the political landscape of key regions, including Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The experts analyze the implications of recent elections, the...
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Tariff Impact: Trade Relations, Supply Chains, Prices and Economies
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this insightful episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam moderates a discussion on the potential impacts of the April 2 tariff announcements and their implications for global trade. Featuring expert analyses from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Ken Wattret, Aries Poon, Eric Oak, and Thomas McCartin, the episode explores how tariffs are reshaping supply chains, affecting domestic industries, and influencing economic forecasts. Listeners will gain a comprehensive understanding of the current state of tariffs, including section 301 duties and section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum,...
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PIERS Review: Anchoring Decisions in Trade Data
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives deep into the intricacies of PIERS, the Port Import-Export Reporting System, with Brendan Neary, Product Manager in S&P Global's trade portfolio. Together, they explore the evolution of PIERS data, its historical significance, and its vital role in understanding global trade flows. Brendan explains how the dataset has adapted to modern challenges, including the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Listeners will gain an understanding of how various industries leverage PIERS data for procurement, compliance, and...
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Trade Tensions: How the EU Could Respond to U.S. Tariffs
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam engages in an insightful discussion with S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Shuchita Shukla and Dijedon Imeri about the implications of potential U.S. tariffs on the European Union's economy. Recorded shortly after significant tariff announcements by the US government, the episode delves into how these measures could reshape trade dynamics, impact growth forecasts, and influence the EU's decision-making process. The conversation also explores historical context, comparing current challenges to past trade disputes during...
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Global Macroeconomic Themes: Navigating Policy Changes in a Dynamic World
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
The episode of The Decisive, taken from a March 20 webinar, features insights from experts including , , , , , and The panel of economists discusses evolving economic and trade policies and their implications across various regions. Listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the current economic policies in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Germany, the European Union, China and India, particularly the impact of tariffs on GDP growth, inflation and monetary policy. Our experts explore the interconnectedness of global economies, the risks posed by trade uncertainties, and the strategic responses...
info_outlineIn this episode of The Decisive, we're sharing highlights from our US macroeconomic webinar on May 20, featuring expert commentary from our economics team at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
We dive deep into the forecast for the US economy, which faces a slowdown. Projected growth is expected to average just 0.8% per quarter in 2025, raising questions about the potential for a recession. We explain the anatomy of a recession, walking through recent examples, and share our outlook.
Our economists also discuss the implications of elevated tariffs, which are contributing to inflationary pressures and reshaping business investment decisions. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach amid policy uncertainty is also explored, with expectations for a pause in rate adjustments until late 2026.
Listeners will gain valuable perspectives on the rising federal budget deficit, projected to increase from 6% to 7% over the next decade, and its effects on the US dollar, which is anticipated to weaken in the coming years.
Join us for this informative episode as we unpack these critical economic trends and equip you with the knowledge to navigate the evolving landscape. Stay curious and stay informed with The Decisive Podcast.
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Credits:
- Host: Alyssa Grzelak
- Guests: Juan Turcios, Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Mike Konidaris
- Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
- Edited By: Marz Marcello
- Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun