The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

Whether you're a business leader, investor, or simply curious about the forces shaping our world, The Decisive podcast is here to provide you with the knowledge you need to stay ahead. Join our team of seasoned Market Intelligence analysts as they explore the ever-changing landscape of maritime, trade and supply chain, economics and country risk.

PMI in Focus: High Frequency Signals for an Uncertain Business Environment 07/18/2026

PMI in Focus: High Frequency Signals for an Uncertain Business Environment In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by senior economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith to discuss the latest signals from the global Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) data and what they reveal about the direction of the world economy. The conversation revisits key themes from the previous PMI episode, including stockpiling, uncertainty, supply chain disruption and inflation risks linked to the tensions in the Middle East and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The economists explain how recent PMI data suggest some easing in inflation pressures and uncertainty, although both remain elevated compared with historical norms. The episode also explores why high-frequency PMI data can be especially valuable during periods of economic volatility, helping businesses, policymakers and forecasters assess turning points before slower-moving official data becomes available. Paul discusses how PMI signals can be combined with broader macroeconomic projections to provide a clearer view of both near-term conditions and longer-term trends. Other topics include the outlook for the eurozone economy, global export conditions, the continued impact of tariffs, and the divergence between weaker PMI export readings and stronger official export data driven in part by AI-related demand. Phil and Andrew highlight how the AI boom is showing up in semiconductor prices, manufacturing performance and capital expenditure intentions, particularly in the US. The episode closes with a look ahead to future PMI research on AI adoption and its impact on the workforce. This is the final episode before the summer break, with The Decisive returning in August for more insights and analysis. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: to learn how the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the World Economic Service (WES) help corporate planners interpret shifting global growth signals For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Credits: Host: Guests: , Produced By: Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/42092940

Frequently Asked Questions: Oil Shocks, Economic Resilience and Risks to Growth 07/11/2026

Frequently Asked Questions: Oil Shocks, Economic Resilience and Risks to Growth In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, vice president of global economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about frequently asked client questions on the recent oil shock, the conflict in the Middle East and the possible implications for the global economy. The conversation was originally recorded on May 12 and considers how the jump in crude prices compares with past oil shocks, why the length of the disruption is critical, which economies appear most exposed, and what indicators can help track the effects on growth, inflation and monetary policy. Ken explains that the increase in Brent crude prices following the start of the Middle East conflict was unusually large, with the monthly rise exceeding 40%. He cautions that the shock is still unfolding and that shortages, if they develop, could intensify the negative effects on global growth. Although S&P Global Market Intelligence’s base case still points to continued global expansion, Ken says the global real GDP growth forecast has been revised down markedly since February. Ken says global growth surprised to the upside in 2025 despite extreme uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, repeated tariff announcements and fears of retaliation, suggesting economies have adjusted to repeated shocks in recent years. Key risks discussed in the episode include a failure to reach an agreement to end the conflict, a resumption or spread of hostilities, more persistent disruptions to energy production and supply, higher-for-longer prices, possible shortages, stronger inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and asset-price problems. Listen to the full episode for Ken Wattret’s perspective on how the oil shock could affect global growth, inflation and monetary policy — and what indicators may signal where the risks are headed next. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Credits: Host: Guest: Produced By: Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/42026555

The Age of Agility: Midyear Signals for 2026 - Part 2 07/04/2026

The Age of Agility: Midyear Signals for 2026 06/27/2026

Uneven Demand, Tight Supply: Navigating the Next Procurement Challenge 06/20/2026

DRAMageddon: What AI Demand Means for Gaming Hardware Supply Chains 06/13/2026

DRAMageddon: What AI Demand Means for Gaming Hardware Supply Chains AI is reshaping more than software — it’s putting intense pressure on the global semiconductor supply chain. In this special cross-post from , The Decisive brings you a timely conversation on how surging demand for AI infrastructure is driving a shortage of DRAM memory, raising costs across consumer technology, and forcing companies to rethink production, pricing, and inventory strategy. Host Neil Barbour speaks with Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the “DRAMageddon” unfolding across markets — from AI data centers and gaming hardware to smartphones, VR headsets, consoles, tariffs, and global trade. Key takeaways include: How AI accelerators are absorbing semiconductor capacity and pushing DRAM prices higher Why consumer electronics — including smartphones, VR headsets, and gaming consoles — are facing rising memory costs and supply constraints What the DRAM shortage means for the gaming market ahead of major launches like Grand Theft Auto VI How companies are shifting hardware production from mainland China to Vietnam amid tariff uncertainty Why inflation, component shortages, and macroeconomic pressures could delay the next generation of consoles until 2028 What today’s memory squeeze reveals about the broader intersection of AI, supply chains, global trade, and technology strategy For listeners of The Decisive, this episode offers a sharp look at how disruption moves through industries in real time — turning a technical bottleneck in semiconductor memory into a wider story about pricing power, production strategy, and the future of consumer technology. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Credits: Hosts: Guest: Produced By: Neil Barbour, Edited By: Neil Barbour, Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/41589395

From Free Trade to Managed Trade: The Next Phase of USMCA 06/06/2026

From Free Trade to Managed Trade: The Next Phase of USMCA In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, we examine the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement at a moment of heightened political uncertainty and rising strategic tension across North America. With trilateral trade reaching roughly $1.8 trillion in the 12 months to August 2025, the stakes are high for governments, investors, and manufacturers alike as the 2026 review process unfolds. Drawing on insights from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Country Risk team, the discussion explores why North American supply chains have remained broadly resilient since the USMCA took effect, even through the pandemic and recent tariff shifts. Mexico continues to benefit from regionalization and reshoring trends, while the US is increasingly focused on trade deficits, investment screening, and the role of mainland Chinese firms using North America as a production platform. Canada, meanwhile, faces a more difficult negotiating environment, shaped by tariffs, political friction, and growing divergence with Washington on industrial policy, data rules, and trade alignment. The conversation also revisits four possible paths for the agreement’s future, with a growing emphasis on annual renewals and incremental changes rather than a single long-term resolution. That approach could preserve US leverage over both Mexico and Canada, but it would also prolong uncertainty for businesses seeking predictability in cross-border investment and sourcing decisions. The experts assess where the toughest disputes are likely to emerge, including automotive rules of origin, labor standards, agriculture, energy policy, and data regulation. They also point to lower-risk areas such as trade facilitation and regulatory harmonization where technical progress may still be possible. A central theme is the shifting nature of the agreement itself. Rather than a traditional free trade framework, the experts describe the USMCA as evolving into a form of managed trade, one in which tariffs remain part of the landscape and negotiations increasingly serve broader strategic and political objectives. Trade policy is now intersecting more visibly with security concerns, domestic politics, and geopolitical competition, especially in the US-Mexico relationship. The episode closes with a look at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the security landscape across the US, Canada, and Mexico. The experts assess terrorism, cartel violence, and protest risks around the tournament, concluding that while major disruptions are not the baseline expectation, authorities are preparing for a wide range of threats and operational challenges across all three host countries. If you're looking for a clear, forward-looking view of where North American trade talks may be headed — and what the next phase of USMCA negotiations could mean for supply chains, investment strategy, and regional stability — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Credits: Host: Guests: , Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/41549135

Resilience Tested: What's at Stake for the US Economy 05/30/2026

How AI Investment Is Influencing Labor Dynamics 05/25/2026

How AI Investment Is Influencing Labor Dynamics Artificial intelligence is no longer a future story — it is already shaping how companies invest, how governments respond, and how labor markets evolve. But adoption is unfolding unevenly, with major differences across sectors, firm sizes, and regions. In this episode, taken from a May 13 client webinar, we take a global look at the realities of AI adoption and its economic consequences. The discussion spans developed markets such as Germany, the UK, and Spain, where adoption is more advanced and often tied to productivity gains and workforce consolidation, as well as emerging economies including Brazil, India, and countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, where AI is more likely to complement labor and support output growth. Our experts also explore the widening gap between large enterprises and smaller firms. Larger companies are better positioned to deploy tailored, enterprise-wide AI strategies, while smaller businesses tend to adopt off-the-shelf tools more gradually and for narrower use cases. At the same time, the labor-market effects remain nuanced: routine tasks are being automated, demand is rising for roles in AI development, software engineering, data analytics, and operational support, and AI-driven layoffs remain limited relative to broader macroeconomic pressures. A key focus is the infrastructure and execution challenge facing frontier markets. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, unstable power grids, reliance on diesel generation, foreign-exchange liquidity constraints, and elevated operating costs are limiting the productivity gains that AI and data-center investment might otherwise deliver. In some markets, operating costs are inflated by 30% to 40%, underscoring the gap between AI ambition and implementation reality. The discussion concludes with a forward-looking assessment of AI’s long-term impact: near-term efficiency gains are likely to outpace workforce displacement, but over time AI could reshape labor demand more fundamentally, with significant implications for growth, competitiveness, and job creation. If you're looking for a data-informed, globally comparative view of how AI is being adopted in practice — and what business leaders, investors, and policymakers should watch next — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: to read our full report on 2026 strategic themes For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Credits: Host: Guests: , , Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/41308865

PMI in Focus: Stockpiling and the Shadow of Stagflation 05/16/2026

Fake IDs on the High Seas: How Bad Actors Evade Detection 05/09/2026

State of Shock: Economic Impacts of Middle East Conflict 05/02/2026

State of Shock: Economic Impacts of Middle East Conflict The global economy is facing its weakest growth outlook since 2009. What happens when geopolitical conflict collides with an already fragile energy market? In this episode of The Decisive, we examine the cascading macroeconomic impacts of recent global disruptions and the resulting negative supply shocks that have forced economists to revise their forecasts. With global real GDP growth downgraded to just 2.4% and inflation projections rising due to energy and food prices, the economic divide between oil-exporting and oil-importing nations is becoming ever more pronounced. What You'll Learn: The Macro Outlook Discover why growth forecasts have been lowered and what our base-case assumption of $100/barrel oil means for the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession. The Great Divide Explore the stark contrast in economic fortunes: Energy exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weathering the storm, while highly vulnerable importers such as India, Egypt, and the Philippines face more acute macroeconomic pressures. Central Bank Dilemmas Understand how major central banks worldwide are navigating the difficult choice between taming persistent inflation and preventing an economic downturn—and why their responses could determine the trajectory of the global economy. Beyond the Barrel Uncover the hidden vulnerabilities in global supply chains, from refined fuels and fertilizers to the unexpected fallout in non-oil sectors like tourism, logistics, and real estate across the Middle East and Asia Pacific. Regional Deep Dives Get detailed analysis of how the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) regions are experiencing these shocks differently, with vulnerability indices revealing which countries face the greatest macro-financial risks. Join our experts for a comprehensive, data-driven breakdown of vulnerabilities, inflation dynamics, and macroeconomic risks defining the global economy today. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: to hear our economists speak in Paris to hear our economists speak in Frankfurt For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Credits: Host: Ken Wattret Guests: Ralf Wiegert, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Diego Iscaro, Ben Herzon Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/41004340

Governance Stress Tests: Key Elections in 2026 04/25/2026

How Supply Constraints Are Defining Electronics Pricing 04/18/2026

How Supply Constraints Are Defining Electronics Pricing In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Yan Hoong for an outlook on the electronics and semiconductor landscape through 2026—taken from a March 12 client webinar. Yan explains why memory remains a big source of procurement and pricing anxiety, with tightness persisting in both advanced and conventional memory as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-end products. Yan unpacks how this constraint is already spilling into downstream categories like computers and communications equipment, and why price pressure could linger until new capacity meaningfully comes online in late 2027 to 2028. The conversation also broadens beyond AI hype: while AI and data centers continue to pull demand (especially for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM), Yan points to a gradual recovery in the broader electronics cycle, with mixed signals across end markets. Aerospace and defense and AI-led infrastructure stand out as growth areas, while consumer electronics and automotive remain softer, reinforced by slowing light vehicle production and divergent PMI new order trends. Finally, Yan breaks down the January 2026 Section 232 tariff announcement, outlining how its pricing impact on US semiconductors may be limited due to narrow scope and broad exemptions for domestic use, with exposure more concentrated in re-export pathways. The episode closes by connecting pricing dynamics across regions—highlighting how memory-heavy supply chains are driving sharper producer price escalation in places like South Korea—while legacy components remain comparatively stable. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices to access our webinar on powering AI infrastructure in a volatile world to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): (full report) Credits: Host: Guest: Yan Hoong Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/40877970

Risk On: The Macro Environment for Moving Metals Prices 04/11/2026

Logistics Finds a Way: Lessons in Supply Chain Resilience 03/28/2026

Critical Minerals at a Crossroads: Navigating Supply, Demand, and Geopolitics 03/21/2026

Critical Minerals at a Crossroads: Navigating Supply, Demand, and Geopolitics As the global transition to clean energy, advanced technology, and artificial intelligence accelerates, the demand for critical minerals—including copper, lithium, and rare earth elements—is reshaping supply chains and intensifying geopolitical competition. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam leads a discussion with S&P Global Market Intelligence experts to examine the evolving landscape of critical minerals. The panel explores how changing definitions, trade flows, and strategic stockpiling are influencing both businesses and governments worldwide. Senior Supply Chain Analyst Eric Oak discusses the complexities of critical mineral classifications and shifting global trade patterns. Senior Economist Jason Kaplan provides insight into the tightening supply-demand balance for copper, price volatility, and procurement strategies. Carla Selman, Head of Latin America Country Risk, analyzes Latin America’s strategic role in the minerals sector and the impact of regional politics and alliances with the US and China. Economist David Vagenknecht offers a European perspective, focusing on the EU’s ambitions for strategic autonomy, challenges in domestic processing, and the balance between environmental leadership and resource security. This episode delivers actionable insights for business leaders, investors, and policymakers on building resilient supply chains, anticipating market shifts, and navigating the geopolitical dynamics shaping the future of critical minerals. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): (full report) Credits: Host: Guests: , Jason Kaplan, , Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/40412685

PMI in Focus: Turning Timely Economic Signals Into Strategy 03/14/2026

Cooling, Not Crashing: Analyzing the US Labor Market 03/07/2026

Ballots and Balance: Asia's Shifting Political Map 02/28/2026

Ballots and Balance: Asia's Shifting Political Map A wave of landmark elections across Japan, Thailand, and Bangladesh is reshaping the political map of Asia—and creating new signals for investors, multinationals, and supply-chain decision-makers. In this episode, we break down what the results mean for regional security, economic strategy, and the business operating environment over the next 12–24 months. We start in Japan, where Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi’s LDP delivers a sweeping lower-house win, strengthening policy stability while enabling more ambitious moves on defense spending, industrial policy, and potential constitutional change. The discussion explores how Tokyo’s deeper alignment with the US on security could influence corporate risk planning, advanced manufacturing, and strategic technology investment. Next, we turn to Thailand, where Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party emerges as the dominant force and is positioned to lead a coalition government. We examine the implications for border tensions with Cambodia, the role of the military and establishment politics, and how continued cost-of-living measures, debt relief, regulatory simplification, and public-private partnerships could reshape opportunities for SMEs, retailers, and large infrastructure players. Finally, in Bangladesh, a decisive BNP win and a reform agenda centered on deregulation and digitization raise questions about implementation capacity, investor confidence, and the direction of foreign policy. We close with what this could mean for key sectors including garments, energy, and pharmaceuticals, and how political dynamics with the opposition may affect the pace of reform. Listen now to learn how these geopolitical developments could impact your business. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Credits: Host: Guests: Jeffery McElroy, Aiman Othman, Smrithi Premjeet Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun /episode/index/show/83931ea7-c794-4ba1-a9c9-fff46b1e2cea/id/40166855