Forecasting the US Economy in Uncertain Times
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
Release Date: 10/11/2025
Top 10 Insights Shaping the 2026 Economic Outlook
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In our final episode of 2025, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence economists Ken Wattret, Ben Herzon, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, and Thea Fourie to unveil the top 10 economic insights shaping the outlook for 2026. Discover how moderating inflation, shifting fiscal policies, and global trade dynamics are creating a delicate balance of tailwinds and headwinds across major economies. From the US avoiding recession and Western Europe’s subdued growth, to China’s pivot to domestic demand and India’s resilience amid tariffs, this episode delivers actionable...
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It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like... the Economic Outlook for US Consumer Spending
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives into the intricacies of U.S. consumer spending as the holiday season approaches. Joined by Michael Zdinak, Ph.D., a director in S&P Global's U.S. economics team, Kristen explores the current economic landscape following a recent government shutdown and its impact on vital economic data. Kristen and Michael discuss the resilience of consumer spending—despite low consumer sentiment—highlighting the factors driving spending behaviors among different income groups. They analyze retail sales trends, the significance of Black...
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Optimism and Uncertainty: The 2026 US Economic Outlook
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of the Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam engages with economists from S&P Global Market Intelligence to unpack the U.S. economic outlook for 2026. The discussion explores key themes influencing growth, including the economic impact of artificial intelligence, evolving labor market dynamics, and the ongoing effects of tariffs on inflation and investment. Listeners will gain insights into the team's optimistic projections for 2026, driven by reduced policy uncertainty and consumer spending bolstered by recent tax cuts. The economists also address potential headwinds to...
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The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
If 2025 was a year of seismic shifts, 2026 will be a year of recalibration to both the aftershocks and the new disruptions we expect to trade patterns, the economy and the geopolitical landscape. In this episode of the Decisive podcast, we set out our key strategic themes for 2026—adapting to trade realities, shaky economic foundations and shifting asymmetric power in geopolitics. Experts from our multidisciplinary research team unpack the ongoing economic uncertainties, evolving trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics we expect to characterize the year ahead. ...
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PMI in Focus: Global Business Outlook and AI Sentiment
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
Host Paul Smith is joined by senior economists Pollyanna de Lima and Andrew Harker to explore the latest trends in Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) and their implications for the global economy. They discuss the resilience of global economic growth in 2025 in the face of challenges such as low business confidence, tariffs, and trade uncertainties. The team analyzes the mixed performance across Latin America, with notable expansions in Colombia contrasted by contractions in Brazil and Mexico. As they shift focus to the future, they explore the findings of the recent Global Business Outlook...
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Frequently Asked Questions About the Global Economy
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode, our experts answer your most frequently asked questions about the global economy, analyzing key trends as we approach 2026. Host Ken Wattret, vice president of global economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, leads a panel representing the US, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America to provide a glimpse into our expectations for the rest of 2025 and beyond. From the optimistic outlook for U.S. GDP growth, driven by recent tax cuts and government spending, to the challenges posed by high inflation and tariffs, we unpack the factors shaping the economic landscape....
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Charting a New Course for Asia's Shipbuilding Powerhouses
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
The shipping industry has faced a seismic shift following the U.S. Trade Representative's finalization of port fees targeting Chinese-built, operated and owned vessels. Such changes in trade and tariff policy are reshaping order books for bulk carriers and specialized cargo vessels and the competitive landscape of Asian shipbuilding. Ongoing physical disruptions are affecting global shipping routes, and shipowners are balancing the urgent need for fleet renewal with the long-term imperative of adhering to tightening environmental regulations. To unpack these developments, host is joined by ...
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Reshoring Potential: Indonesia and Malaysia in Global Supply Chains
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
As we approach the end of 2025, companies are starting to move beyond calculating tariff rates and to think develop long-term strategies for their supply chains. Reshoring — moving some or all of your sourcing from one region or territory to another — has reemerged as a strategic option. S&P Global Market Intelligence Head of Supply Chain Research Chris Rogers joins host Kristen Hallam to discuss reshoring, focusing on two key Southeast Asian markets: Indonesia and Malaysia. They explore the current global supply chain positions of both countries, highlighting Indonesia's...
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Mapping Political Volatility: Elections, Unrest and Instability in Key Regions
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of the Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam leads a compelling discussion on the rising political volatility across various regions, including Asia Pacific, Europe, and Latin America. Joined by experts Carla Selman, Bibianna Norek, and Jeffery McElroy, the panel explores the factors driving instability in countries like Japan, Peru, Argentina, France, and the UK. Listeners will gain insights into the implications of recent leadership changes, the impact of civil unrest, and the role of immigration policies in shaping political landscapes. The experts also discuss the upcoming...
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Forecasting the US Economy in Uncertain Times
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam engages in an insightful discussion with Ben Herzon, co-head of US Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence. They explore the complexities of economic forecasting in turbulent times, focusing on how to differentiate between signal and noise in economic data. Ben shares his expertise on the significance of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) as a leading indicator for economic trends, particularly its role in predicting industrial production and GDP. The conversation also explores the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic...
info_outlineIn this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam engages in an insightful discussion with Ben Herzon, co-head of US Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence. They explore the complexities of economic forecasting in turbulent times, focusing on how to differentiate between signal and noise in economic data. Ben shares his expertise on the significance of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) as a leading indicator for economic trends, particularly its role in predicting industrial production and GDP.
The conversation also explores the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth, highlighting the resilience of the US economy amid recent challenges. Ben discusses the factors contributing to the growth outlook, including recent budget legislation, federal spending, and inventory management by businesses.
Additionally, they address the risks to economic growth, such as potential increases in tariffs, inflation surprises, and the implications of a government shutdown. The episode concludes with a look at how scenario analysis is used to navigate uncertainties in economic forecasting, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current economic landscape.
Tune in for a deep dive into the dynamics shaping the US economy and the tools used to forecast its future.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
- Global Economic Outlook: September 2025
- Picture This: Company Sentiment on Tariffs Turns More Negative in Earnings Calls
- The US Home Improvement Market: Trends and Challenges Ahead
Credits:
- Host: Kristen Hallam
- Guest: Ben Herzon
- Produced By: Kristen Hallam
- Edited By: Marz Marcello
- Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun