Stop Using Forecast Models Wrong

Gabriel Harber is joined by Coach Kyle Gillett to uncover the most common ways storm chasers misuse forecast models—and how to fix them. From misinterpreting updraft helicity tracks to pulling flawed soundings, they offer practical tips to improve your forecasting right away.

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00:00 Why Numerical Models Matter for Storm Chasing 

03:00 Misuse of Updraft Helicity Tracks 

07:45 How to Properly Pluck Soundings 

14:00 Forecasting Decisions Become Your Chase 

16:50 NAM 3km Model: Overconvecting Issues 

22:30 Future of Weather Models & Final Thoughts

In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching Podcast, Gabriel Harber is joined by Coach Kyle Gillett to tackle one of the most misunderstood topics in storm chasing: forecast model interpretation. Together, they break down three of the most common mistakes chasers make when using numerical weather prediction models—and offer clear, actionable tips to avoid them.

First, they explore the frequent misuse of updraft helicity tracks. While UH tracks are often shared on social media with alarming visuals, Kyle explains they simply indicate mid-level rotation—not tornado potential. The duo emphasizes that many chasers mistakenly assume these tracks are tornado predictors, which leads to unnecessary hype and misinformed forecasting.

Next, Kyle outlines how to properly “pluck” soundings from model data. Many chasers unknowingly pull soundings from areas contaminated by simulated convection, leading to inaccurate readings that can dramatically distort a forecast. Kyle stresses the importance of selecting soundings from clean, undisturbed areas—preferably southeast of developing convection—to ensure the environment being analyzed is actually representative of what a storm will encounter.

Finally, the conversation takes a critical look at the NAM 3km model. Kyle explains its notorious cold and moist bias, which leads to overly strong cold pools and the overdevelopment of squall lines in simulations. He urges chasers to understand model limitations and biases, and to use each model selectively based on the scenario.

With humor, clarity, and deep expertise, Kyle and Gabriel deliver a must-hear episode that will help storm chasers make smarter, more reliable forecasting decisions. For those ready to go deeper, Kyle’s full training module on weather models is available inside Chaser Academy.