Moving from Uncertainty to Action

Show Notes:

• [0:00:57] Intro | Timely Topics
  • Radio voices are a go.
  • Wear sunscreen!
  • A brief recap of the previous episode.
• [00:03:00] Leaving Behind Analysis Paralysis
  • Punished by choice, leaving uncertainty to chance, and overconfidence
    • All of them exhibit a lack of knowledge/experience/data.
  • Gaining information when under the thumb of uncertainty.
    • Iterative action/s through uncertainty.
      • Understanding pieces at a time.
  • "Put one foot in front of the other...and soon..."
    • You can't overestimate the value of action.
  • The scientific method is your friend!
    • You make observations and you ask questions. That's the start.
      • "What does this uncertainty/opportunity afford to us as a company?"
      • "Then what?" *what's next?*
      • "So what?" *measuring worth & magnitude*
• [00:12:20] Important Aspects of Moving from Uncertainty to Action
  • "Where is the opportunity in the uncertainty?"
    • Using the trend of distributed work culture as an example.
  • Forming a testable explanation to get you to the next stage.
  • "What are the limiters to growth?"
  • "What are the things that good organizations do continually?"
  • Financial capability can undoubtedly fuel growth, but ultimately people (and their experience/talent) are the finite resource that limits growth.
  • You HAVE to make a prediction.
    • You want to come out of your experiment with more knowledge than you had going into the hypothesis.
    • Informing the prediction.
      • Expected outcomes vs the reality.
  • Control your variables...as best as you can.
    • An example using seasonal discounts/sales.
    • Isolate individual actions.
  • Results HAVE to be repeatable.
    • Because you will have to repeat your results, likely sooner than later.
  • Moving from one experiment to another too quickly is dangerous.
    • One at a time is best if possible.
  • Iterate, and repeat the processes.
    • Insert new variables, new predictions.
  • Patience is so very important.
    • We often give up on things too quickly.
      • Stop it.
• [00:24:50] Wrapping Up with Parting Words & Takeaways
  • Things to keep in mind:
    • A failed experiment: a hypothesis PROVEN WRONG is a SUCCESS as long as you learned a lesson!
    • Everything moves you toward success.
    • To quote Adam Savage of Mythbusters, "Failure is always an option."
      • The truth is that failure doesn't have to be negative.
    • When you're dealing with uncertainty, decisions are riskier than experiments.
      • It's ok to be uncertain, but it's also ok to be certain...as long as you're right.
        • This is why it's a lot safer to admit when you're uncertain and create experiments than it is to double down on your pride/ego with decisions that come from false certainty.
        • Commitments are dangerous in experiments.
    • Action is okay, but experimental action is the best way forward.