JL-3, You know me.
Arms Control Wonk
China has conducted a test of its JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile into the open ocean — a departure from its usual practice of lobbing missiles into the desert or splashing them down in domestic waters. Jeffrey and Aaron Stein sit down to talk about why China would test this way: what an open-ocean flight test actually demonstrates, how it mirrors the way the United States, Russia, France, and other nuclear powers have long tested their sea-based deterrents, and what it tells us that China is increasingly behaving like a normal nuclear weapons state. They also dig into what the...
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MOU 404
Arms Control Wonk
The US-Iran MOU is humiliating, it was signed at Versailles, and its still not on any government website. In fact, if you try a .gov keyword search for Iran's commitment to not build nuclear weapons, the top result is Obama's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Aaron and Jeffrey work through why Trump was right to quit while he was behind, why continuing the fight wouldn't have changed a single comma, and why, weeks later, you still can't find the thing on . Support us over at !
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Let the Uploading Begin
Arms Control Wonk
Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the Trump administration’s review of nuclear strategy, the case for uploading, and what it all means for the looming arms race. Support us over at !
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From Satan to Sarmat
Arms Control Wonk
Russia tested the RS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM, which will replace the SS-18/RS-36M Satan. What's it for? Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the role of heavy ICBMs, the foundational assumption for counterforce, the rise of orbital bombardment systems (FOBS!!!!!!!!), the collapse of the ABM Treaty and the future of space-based interceptors. Support us over at !
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An Iran War Vibe Check
Arms Control Wonk
It's been a long time, we shouldnt have left you, but we got a dope pod to step too. Or at least we think so. After a brief hiatus, Aaron and Jeffrey return to discuss the latest from the Iran war and what it means for arms control. It ends with Jeffrey geeking out on Dark Eagle, the missile CENTCOM wants and Jeffrey is obsessed with Support us over at !
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Conscious Decoupling
Arms Control Wonk
U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about seismic monitoring of nuclear tests, the role of hydronuclear testing, and what might be going on. Support us over at !
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(Just Like) New START is Over
Arms Control Wonk
The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end of New START, the prospects for and constraints on a looming arms race, and why even bother with arms control treaties at all. Support us over at !
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Oreshnik Again
Arms Control Wonk
Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test. Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile. Support us over at !
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A Pod of Dynamite
Arms Control Wonk
Jeffrey and Scott watched the new Kathryn Bigelow movie "House of Dynamite" and they both have opinions. The crew talks through both the artistic choices as well as the wonky details. "House of Dynamite" is an interesting take on missile defense and decisionmaking that doesn't quite commit enough to any philosophical or strategic camp, but ultimately may be the lens through which a lot of non-wonks view or interact with missile defenses, conceptually, as we move towards a potential major expansion of US missile defenses. We should do a watch party. Support us over at !
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A Return to Nuclear Testing
Arms Control Wonk
Donald Trump directed "the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" with other countries. The Department of War doesn't test nuclear weapons, the Department of Energy does all the time in lots of different ways. Some people worried this meant a return to explosive testing, others seemed to think it was about delivery systems. Subsequent statements by the Vice President and the Secretary of Defense didn't clarify things. Aaron and Jeffrey sit down to try to make some sense of it all. Support us over at !
info_outlineMatt Korda and Hans Kristensen with the Federation of American Scientists have tracked down what appears to be a second field of missile silos near Hami, Xinjiang.
Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott gather up to discuss the rapidly increasing number of missile silos, what this means for the shell game theory, how many missiles and warheads could be in the PLARF's ICBM arsenal, and how China strategically responds to U.S. ballistic missile defenses.
Links of Note:
Our first episode on the first field of silos: https://armscontrolwonk.libsyn.com/nuclear-silos-in-the-chinese-desert
Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!