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Wasted Opportunities with the JCPOA

Arms Control Wonk

Release Date: 08/27/2021

American ASAT Controls show art American ASAT Controls

Arms Control Wonk

The U.S. has unilaterally committed to not conducting destructive anti-satellite missile tests! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through what the U.S. has actually normatively committed to, what this means for potential future attempts at arms control in space, and some of the institutional hurdles the U.S. must overcome for a long-lasting commitment to space-based arms control. Support us over at !

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Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century show art Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century

Arms Control Wonk

and join Jeffrey to talk about their new book: The group sits down to talk through China's DF-21D and DF-26 missiles. Do they work? What do they do? What can they actually accomplish? How do navies adapt to the new threat environment?  The group talks through the realities and the puffed up hype around these systems, and how they actually impact strategy and naval operations. Support us over at !

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Test Three Missiles... show art Test Three Missiles...

Arms Control Wonk

...get a pod.  North Korea has conducted three (and, as I'm typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as "satellite" system tests.  Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests, BAD OSINT claiming that some agricultural fields were missile support areas, and then more good OSINT in the form of Jeffrey's talented class of missile modelers.  Jeffrey also predicts a Hwasong-17 test is coming, and as this episode is being published, he is proven right.  Next episode: North Korean Test Bingo...

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The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence show art The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence

Arms Control Wonk

Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics.  Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence, wherein an individual actor's rationality can be gauged by the company they keep.  Support us over at !

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Deterrence in Ukraine show art Deterrence in Ukraine

Arms Control Wonk

Russia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could've deterred Russia "if it had never given up nuclear weapons." But they never "had" nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during the Cold War, and the "return" of those weapons to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Support us over at !

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Nuclear Security for Who? show art Nuclear Security for Who?

Arms Control Wonk

Jasmine Owens, Lead Organizer and Policy Coordinator at the Physicians for Social Responsibility, joins Jeffrey to discuss social justice and nuclear weapons. Jasmine and Jeffrey attack the tough issues facing culture within the nuclear security field, embedded bias, and the disproportionate impact these weapons have on minority and oppressed communities.  Support us over at !

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Networked Nonproliferation with Michal Onderco show art Networked Nonproliferation with Michal Onderco

Arms Control Wonk

Dr. Michal Onderco, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam, joins Jeffrey to talk about his new book, Dr. Onderco and Jeffrey talk about the history of the NPT extension, interpersonal relationships in diplomacy, and the methods and study of diplomacy in nuclear treaty-making.  Support us over at !  

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Gimme Shelter show art Gimme Shelter

Arms Control Wonk

After North Korea tested its new MaRV twice, a bunch of weird news stories suddenly started breaking about U.S. responses. Flights were grounded in parts of the West Coast, there was a shelter in place order up at the missile defense site in Alaska, and it seemed like someone may have mistook the North Korean test for an ICBM launch. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the U.S. early warning and ballistic missile defense system, pressures of decisionmaking, and what happens when missile warnings are misunderstood in high-pressure environments.  Support us over at !

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North Korea's MaRV show art North Korea's MaRV

Arms Control Wonk

North Korea tested what appears to be a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), which could support a tactical nuclear mission and subvert ballistic missile defenses. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the difference between a MaRV and a hypersonic glide vehicle, discuss the development of the DPRK missile industry, and walk through North Korea's tactical nuclear ambitions.  Other Episodes of Interest: : When the DPRK tested what appears to be a hypersonic glide vehicle : Jeffrey visits our friends on the War on the Rocks Warcast to talk about Iran's recent space launch attempt. Support us over...

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North Korea's Small SLBM show art North Korea's Small SLBM

Arms Control Wonk

North Korea seems to be taking its new, small, solid propellant missiles to the sea, after taking them to the show. Perennial friend of the pod and aficionado of all things submarine of the International Institute of Strategic Studies returns to talk to Jeffrey about what it is that the DPRK tested this time, whether it is the same missile that the DPRK showed off at its recent military expo, and what their submarine program is looking like in 2021. Previous Episodes with Joseph Dempsey:     Support us over at !

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More Episodes

Bad news abounds for Iranian and US returns to JCPOA compliance.

Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the frustration around breakout time requirements, the timidity of the Biden administration, and the shortfalls of the wait-and-see approach. 

 

Links of Note:

The Economist article on OSINT, including Arms Control Wonk and the Slack channel, which is filled with only the most brilliant and beautiful of people, whom all listeners should aspire to emulate: 

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/08/07/open-source-intelligence-challenges-state-monopolies-on-information

 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!