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Test Three Missiles...

Arms Control Wonk

Release Date: 03/24/2022

The Wizards of Armageddon show art The Wizards of Armageddon

Arms Control Wonk

Jeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on the same core tenets, decades after the initial events.  Support us over at !

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Waiting for the Boom show art Waiting for the Boom

Arms Control Wonk

After a brief hiatus due to Jeffrey's house catching on a lil' bit of fire, the Arms Control Wonk team is back to take a look at North Korea's triple missile launch and looming possible nuclear test.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the North Korean nuclear testing schedule, the expectations of precision that open source intelligence has generated, and what it means when half of the attendees at a nuclear conference all simultaneously leave... Support us over at !

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American ASAT Controls show art American ASAT Controls

Arms Control Wonk

The U.S. has unilaterally committed to not conducting destructive anti-satellite missile tests! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through what the U.S. has actually normatively committed to, what this means for potential future attempts at arms control in space, and some of the institutional hurdles the U.S. must overcome for a long-lasting commitment to space-based arms control. Support us over at !

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Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century show art Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century

Arms Control Wonk

and join Jeffrey to talk about their new book: The group sits down to talk through China's DF-21D and DF-26 missiles. Do they work? What do they do? What can they actually accomplish? How do navies adapt to the new threat environment?  The group talks through the realities and the puffed up hype around these systems, and how they actually impact strategy and naval operations. Support us over at !

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Test Three Missiles... show art Test Three Missiles...

Arms Control Wonk

...get a pod.  North Korea has conducted three (and, as I'm typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as "satellite" system tests.  Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests, BAD OSINT claiming that some agricultural fields were missile support areas, and then more good OSINT in the form of Jeffrey's talented class of missile modelers.  Jeffrey also predicts a Hwasong-17 test is coming, and as this episode is being published, he is proven right.  Next episode: North Korean Test Bingo...

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The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence show art The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence

Arms Control Wonk

Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics.  Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence, wherein an individual actor's rationality can be gauged by the company they keep.  Support us over at !

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Deterrence in Ukraine show art Deterrence in Ukraine

Arms Control Wonk

Russia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could've deterred Russia "if it had never given up nuclear weapons." But they never "had" nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during the Cold War, and the "return" of those weapons to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Support us over at !

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Nuclear Security for Who? show art Nuclear Security for Who?

Arms Control Wonk

Jasmine Owens, Lead Organizer and Policy Coordinator at the Physicians for Social Responsibility, joins Jeffrey to discuss social justice and nuclear weapons. Jasmine and Jeffrey attack the tough issues facing culture within the nuclear security field, embedded bias, and the disproportionate impact these weapons have on minority and oppressed communities.  Support us over at !

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Networked Nonproliferation with Michal Onderco show art Networked Nonproliferation with Michal Onderco

Arms Control Wonk

Dr. Michal Onderco, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam, joins Jeffrey to talk about his new book, Dr. Onderco and Jeffrey talk about the history of the NPT extension, interpersonal relationships in diplomacy, and the methods and study of diplomacy in nuclear treaty-making.  Support us over at !  

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Gimme Shelter show art Gimme Shelter

Arms Control Wonk

After North Korea tested its new MaRV twice, a bunch of weird news stories suddenly started breaking about U.S. responses. Flights were grounded in parts of the West Coast, there was a shelter in place order up at the missile defense site in Alaska, and it seemed like someone may have mistook the North Korean test for an ICBM launch. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the U.S. early warning and ballistic missile defense system, pressures of decisionmaking, and what happens when missile warnings are misunderstood in high-pressure environments.  Support us over at !

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More Episodes

...get a pod. 

North Korea has conducted three (and, as I'm typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as "satellite" system tests. 

Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests, BAD OSINT claiming that some agricultural fields were missile support areas, and then more good OSINT in the form of Jeffrey's talented class of missile modelers. 

Jeffrey also predicts a Hwasong-17 test is coming, and as this episode is being published, he is proven right. 

Next episode: North Korean Test Bingo Cards.  

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!