Skyscrapers and Storefronts: Insights on the Commercial Real Estate Market in 2024 | EP165
Release Date: 08/29/2024
Customizing the Last Mile: AI, Innovation, and Mawer’s Tech Evolution | EP 192
Art of Boring
In this episode, Justin Anderson, Mawer’s Chief Technology Officer, sits down to discuss the evolving “build-in vs. build-out” technology framework. Justin explains how Mawer approaches technology decisions—balancing vendor solutions with in-house customization—and shares practical examples from the firm, including proprietary solutions such as trade&MAWER and M42. The conversation explores how advances in AI and large language models are accelerating the shift toward more tailored, efficient solutions. He also offers insights for investors on what to look for in management teams...
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Energy, Gold, and Growth: Current Insights on Canadian Markets | EP 191
Art of Boring
Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer’s Canadian large cap strategy, discusses the ongoing volatility in oil, the unique role of gold, the outlook for Canadian banks, and the potential impact of recent political changes. Mark also shares how the Mawer team is leveraging AI to enhance their investment process and decision-making. Key Takeaways: • Oil Market: Global demand is rising, driven by economic growth and higher incomes, while supply is shaped by geopolitics, OPEC, and technology. • Canadian Banks: Loan growth is slow and provisions are higher amid uncertainty, but banks remain...
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Finding Hidden Gems in Emerging Markets | EP 190
Art of Boring
Join Peter Lampert, Portfolio Manager of Mawer's Emerging Markets strategy, as he takes you on a journey from Polish meat counters to UAE boardrooms, revealing how a disciplined bottom-up approach uncovers extraordinary opportunities in overlooked markets. Key Takeaways: • Mawer’s bottom-up philosophy is consistent across markets, but emerging markets require a nuanced focus on the macro and geopolitical environment. • Emerging markets are highly diverse and less efficient, often offering more opportunities for disciplined, active investors. • On-the-ground research—such as recent...
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Navigating Uncertainty: Global Small Caps, Process Innovation, and AI at Mawer | EP189
Art of Boring
In this episode, Karan Phadke, Portfolio Manager for Mawer’s global small cap strategy, shares insights on how small caps are navigating trade policy volatility, the importance of proactive management, and Mawer’s unique approach to process improvement and AI integration in investment research. Key points from this episode: • Small caps’ local focus provides insulation from global trade volatility. Importance of proactive management teams in uncertain environments. • Mawer’s “ant model” drives continuous process improvement and collaboration. • Systematic thesis...
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The Long View: Global Equity Positioning in Uncertain Markets | EP188
Art of Boring
In this episode, global equity co-manager, Manar Hassan-Agha, examines how tariff policies have created uncertainty for businesses, particularly impacting capital deployment decisions and supply chains. Manar explains how a focus on asset-light, service-oriented businesses with recurring revenue provides resilience during volatile periods, with limited direct exposure to tariff-vulnerable exports. Through specific company examples like Admiral Group, UnitedHealth, and a beauty products business, he illustrates how the team evaluates short-term price movements versus long-term intrinsic value,...
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Investment Opportunities in a Changing Military Landscape | EP187
Art of Boring
In this episode, we discuss the defense industry's evolution with equity analyst Joshua Samuel. He highlights the historical underinvestment in European defense, the recent increase in defense spending, particularly Germany's program, and the strategic importance of land systems. The conversation highlights how the current geopolitical environment has transformed defense from an underperforming sector to an investment opportunity, though valuations for companies like Rheinmetall now reflect much of this potential. Key Takeaways: Historical Underinvestment: European military spending dropped...
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Finding Silver Linings: International Investing Through Trade Policy Turbulence | EP186
Art of Boring
In this episode, portfolio manager, Peter Lampert discusses international equities and the impact of tariffs on portfolio management. He provides insights into how his team has been preparing for potential tariffs since Trump's campaign, explaining that most of their international portfolio companies have limited export exposure to the U.S. and instead operate primarily in domestic markets across various regions. He highlights their strategic decision to exit positions that are heavily dependent on global trade, while maintaining confidence in businesses with resilient management teams capable...
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Quarterly Update | Q1 2025 | EP185
Art of Boring
In this Quarterly episode, Crista Caughlin, lead portfolio manager for Canadian bonds, and Jeff Mo, lead portfolio manager for U.S. midcaps, discuss market performance through Q1 2025 and the significant volatility that followed in early Q2—particularly after "Liberation Day" when the Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs, followed by retaliation from other countries, and then a partial pause. The discussion explores how these trade tensions have created uncertainty affecting business confidence, consumer spending, and investment decisions. Crista explains that the growth outlook has...
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Market Update: April 8, 2025 | EP184
Art of Boring
Mawer President and portfolio manager, Jim Hall, discusses the current market environment and the team's approach to risk management. The conversation covers what triggered the vast volatility and uncertainty seen in markets, potential scenarios to come, and what the team at Mawer is doing about it. He emphasizes the importance of staying calm, being prepared, and diversifying portfolios to manage risks. Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Jim Hall, CFA, MBA, President, Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get...
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When Tariff Waves Crash: Maintaining Course in Volatile Markets | EP183
Art of Boring
In this episode, U.S. mid cap equity portfolio manager, Jeff Mo, discusses the market's sharp sell-off following President Trump's announcement of widespread tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. He provides both short and long-term perspectives on potential economic impacts, including reduced business investment and consumer spending, while explaining that Mawer's investment approach during this volatility remains focused on preparation as opposed to prediction. Key Takeaways: "Liberation Day" Tariffs - Trump administration announced widespread tariffs (10-40%) on most trading...
info_outlineIn this episode of the podcast, credit analyst Curtis Elkington provides a comprehensive overview of the $50 trillion global commercial real estate market. He covers the current headwinds facing various property sectors, such as pandemic-induced challenges in the office sector and touches on the surprising resilience of the retail segment. Elkington sheds light on the complexities of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market and details the credit analysis process his team uses to evaluate potential investments with examples.
Key points from this episode:
• Over the past four years, commercial real estate as an asset class has faced potentially the most significant of headwinds, most notably the pandemic and the rise in interest rates.
• While the pandemic had a different impact on each property sector within commercial real estate, higher rates had a much more uniform impact across the various industries.
• The overall size of the commercial real estate market, which includes multifamily, office, retail, and industrial properties, is massive. In 2023, Savills estimated the total global property value was $50 trillion, of which the U.S. is the largest component.
• Vacancy and capitalization rates are the two primary metrics used to assess the health of the commercial real estate sectors. In office, both vacancy and capitalization rates have increased significantly since 2019.
• According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the 25 largest commercial banks have ~$860 billion in commercial real estate loans, which is only 6% of their collective assets. All the other banks outside of the top 25 have $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans, but that accounts for 30% of their total assets.
• Over the past six months, the risk-reward on the credit side for several real estate companies was unattractive in all scenarios.
• Some market participants believe that upwards of $100 billion, or 15%, of U.S. CMBS is currently mis-rated.
• The credit team does two main things in its intensive analysis credit review. They assign a Mawer credit rating that's tied to valuation, and they establish a margin of safety that's tied to downside production.
• With commercial real estate, just like any potential investment, the team reviews each issue and issuer on a case-by-case basis following a thorough and rigorous process before committing investor capital.
Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Curtis Elkington, CFA, Mawer Credit Analyst
For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/skyscrapers-and-storefronts-insights-on-the-commercial-real-estate-market-in-2024-ep165
This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.
Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.
Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.
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