U.S. Mid-Cap Resilience: Beyond the Headlines | EP 204
Art of Boring
U.S. mid-cap equities are often overlooked, but beneath the headlines of consumer weakness and market volatility, there’s a more nuanced story. Portfolio manager Jeff Mo shares a bottom-up perspective on resilient—though bifurcated—consumer spending, margin surprises, and a capital expenditure boom that extends beyond AI. The discussion explores how company fundamentals, competitive advantages, and valuation opportunities are shaping portfolio decisions, with insights into sectors like defense and industrials. Jeff also addresses the impact of macro trends on stock selection, the...
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Credit Markets: Caution, Compression, and Opportunity | EP 203
Art of Boring
On this episode of The Art of Boring, Global Credit Portfolio Manager Brian Carney unpacks what he believes are some of the most pressing issues in credit markets today. He explores whether recent private market bankruptcies signal deeper systemic concerns, how to position for sovereign bond issuer risk in a sticky inflation world, and the impact of the AI-driven debt wave on credit spreads. He also discusses regulatory rollbacks in the lending markets, credit risk premium mispricings, and concrete portfolio actions for late cycle markets. Key Highlights Recent private market...
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International Equity: AI Enablers, Competitive Strength, Portfolio Resilience | EP 202
Art of Boring
In this episode, portfolio manager Peter Lampert discusses the evolving landscape of international equities, with a special focus on the portfolio’s exposure to AI enablers—companies powering the semiconductor supply chain, from power supply units to memory makers. Lampert explains the importance of distinguishing between firms merely riding the AI investment wave and those whose competitive positions are fundamentally strengthening as a result. The conversation also explores attractive valuations outside the U.S., the growing role of Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT...
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Global Equity Update: Collaboration, Diversification, and Staying in the Middle of the Net | EP 201
Art of Boring
Paul Moroz returns to share an update on our global equity strategy. We dig into what's changed since Paul resumed the lead portfolio manager role, how the team's collaboration has evolved, and why a more diversified and resilient portfolio is the result. Listen for Paul's take on why optionality and humility matter more than ever. Key highlights: Enhanced team collaboration through structural changes leading to better cross-team idea generation Improved portfolio diversification with holdings expanding to over 70 securities: reduction of consumer staples and discretionary...
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Quarterly Update | Q3 2025 | EP 200
Art of Boring
In this episode, we sat down with our Director of Research, Vijay Viswanathan, and Institutional Portfolio Manager, Kevin Minas, to talk through their observations this past quarter. We talk macro, micro, and everything in between, touching on changing market dynamics, central bank policy, how the portfolios are doing in this environment, and, finally, how we're positioning ourselves as we move forward. Key highlights: Three major macro themes dominated the quarter—trade policy tensions (though somewhat cooling), continued fiscal stimulus despite near-capacity economies, and AI-driven...
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The Canadian Bond Balancing Act: Trade Policy, Central Banks, and Economic Growth Impacts | EP 199
Art of Boring
In this episode, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin breaks down the macro forces driving bond markets in 2025. From trade uncertainty to central bank policy shifts, Crista explains how these themes are shaping Canadian fixed income performance and where she sees opportunities ahead. Key highlights: Trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, and tighter financial conditions have been key macroeconomic themes shaping global and Canadian bond markets, with U.S. trade actions and paused tariffs reducing some volatility but still weighing on Canadian growth and exports. Central...
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Patience and Progress: Navigating Japan’s Investment Terrain | EP 198
Art of Boring
Equity analyst Ian Turnbull shares insights from his latest trip to Japan, highlighting the unique aspects of Japanese society and corporate culture. From surplus and stakeholder capitalism to why you might get more than you pay for at a 7-Eleven convenience store, Ian reflects on the value of on-the-ground research, the trade-offs involved in capital allocation decisions, and pockets of real opportunity within Japan's evolving business landscape. Key Takeaways On-the-ground research in Japan reveals unique cultural and corporate dynamics that are difficult to capture from afar; direct...
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From Invisible Hand to Heavy Hand: Government Stakes, AI, and the Shifting CapEx Cycle in U.S. Markets | EP 197
Art of Boring
In this episode, U.S. Equity Portfolio Manager Grayson Witcher explores the evolving intersection of government policy, innovation, and capital expenditure (CapEx) in U.S. markets. The discussion unpacks how public spending and strategic government stakes—especially in sectors like semiconductors and defense—are reshaping the investment landscape. Grayson reflects on the unique blend of complacency and optimism in today’s markets, the uncertain returns on massive AI-driven CapEx, and the importance of management quality and adaptability in navigating this new era. Key highlights: U.S....
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Convergence and Complacency: Today's Credit Markets | EP 196
Art of Boring
Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the global credit opportunities strategy, explores the current credit market environment characterized by tight spreads and low defaults despite global uncertainties. He discusses the concept of "convergence and complacency"—where large pools of capital chase lower-quality borrowers while markets overlook serious warning signs including political pressure on central banks and hidden leverage. The conversation covers key crisis indicators, the weakening of credit covenants over the past decade, and the risks associated with private credit. He outlines...
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From Inventory to Innovation: Canadian Small Caps in Focus | EP 195
Art of Boring
In this episode equity analyst Dominic Drzazga discusses the current state of Canadian small caps, highlighting how geopolitical volatility creates both challenges and opportunities. The conversation covers recent portfolio additions including Sprott's precious metals trust and Kraken's underwater robotics technology, while reflecting on the bittersweet exit of long-time holding Andlauer. Dom also shares insights into how the research team is utilizing AI tools within their process. Key Takeaways: How the Canadian Small Cap team navigates market volatility and geopolitical...
info_outlineIn this episode, we discuss 2024's economic landscape and what to expect in 2025, with Crista Caughlin, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Canadian bond strategy. Crista highlights U.S. and Canadian growth trends, central bank rate adjustments, housing market dynamics, equity and fixed-income performance, and political uncertainties. She also discusses Mawer’s asset allocation strategy, balancing risks with opportunities amidst shifting fiscal policies, trade tensions, and global economic developments heading into 2025.
Key Takeaways:
- The year 2024 saw resilient U.S. growth despite headwinds, while Canada faced weaker growth and higher unemployment. Q4 showed modest improvements in Canadian growth and employment, but inflation trends potentially shifted upward in both regions late in the year.
- In 2024, the Bank of Canada aggressively eased rates, cutting 175 basis points, responding to weaker growth and target-level inflation. The Fed eased more gradually, cutting 100 basis points, as robust U.S. growth supported higher rates. Both central banks aimed to shift from restrictive to less restrictive policies.
- Political changes in Canada and the U.S. have created uncertainty for fiscal policies and trade dynamics. Tariffs pose risks to Canadian growth and inflation. Central banks remain cautious, awaiting policy clarity while navigating trade and economic interdependencies.
- The Canadian housing market faces reduced pressure due to Bank of Canada rate cuts and proactive bank measures like extended amortization. However, 2025's higher mortgage renewals at elevated rates pose ongoing risks to household spending and economic growth.
- Equity markets posted strong 2024 returns, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, AI growth, and financial sector strength. Fixed-income returns were flat in Q4 but solid annually, with tightening spreads and rising Canadian 10-year rates prompting a defensive portfolio stance.
- The asset mix committee maintained a neutral equity stance, underweight bonds, and overweight cash in 2024, balancing hard landing concerns with market momentum. Key 2025 themes include fiscal policy uncertainty, global deficits, higher neutral rates, and opportunistic portfolio adjustments to enhance diversification.
Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guest: Crista Caughlin, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income
For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-
This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.
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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.
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