Credit Markets: Caution, Compression, and Opportunity | EP 203
Release Date: 11/26/2025
Art of Boring
Private equity is opening up to individual investors, and the line between public and private markets is blurring. In this episode, private investments portfolio manager Peter Lieu and institutional portfolio manager Kevin Minas break down secondaries and continuation vehicles, the difference between IRR and distributions, and how Mawer built institutional-quality private equity access through fund commitments, co-investments, and vintage-year diversification, including a new mutual fund trust for registered accounts like RRSPs and TFSAs. 0:00 - Introduction: Private Equity Beyond Endowments...
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AI CapEx is on track to reach roughly $700 billion at the four largest hyperscalers this year, and equity analyst Irena Petkovic breaks down where all that money is going and what has to be true for it to earn a return. She explains how data centers turned from cost centers into revenue-producing AI factories, the four ways hyperscalers monetize compute, and how the token economy actually works. She then weighs the early evidence of returns against the risks around token pricing, debt financing, and public backlash, and describes how the team positions the portfolio around it. 0:00 -...
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How do you value a memory semiconductor stock like SK Hynix when no one can predict DRAM prices? Equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo walks through the team’s Monte Carlo valuation framework: a discounted cash flow run through thousands of scenarios that prices the business on a distribution of returns rather than a single forecast. He also explains how two-times leveraged single-stock ETFs have been amplifying SK Hynix’s daily price swings, why regulators and Korean brokers are responding to retail leverage, and why flow-driven volatility can be a gift for long-term investors. The through-line:...
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Memory has been one of the strongest corners of the semiconductor industry, and strong returns invite hard questions. In the second part of this series, equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo examines the main risks to the memory thesis: rising competition from China's CXMT and YMTC, the technologies that could reduce AI's appetite for memory, and the wave of capacity investment that could eventually tip the industry back into oversupply. He weighs each risk against the constraints holding it back, from equipment export controls to limited EUV supply, and notes that memory companies already trade at...
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One of the defining market stories of the past 12 months has not been AI chips that compute, but the chips that remember. Equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo explains how memory works, from DRAM and NAND to high bandwidth memory, and how an industry that destroyed wealth for four decades became disciplined after consolidating to three players in 2013. He then walks through what changed: AI inference has made memory the key bottleneck, memory content is climbing with each new generation of GPUs, and new supply takes three to four years to build. With prices up sharply and customers signing long-term...
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Canada has spent a generation underinvesting in the infrastructure and resources that underpin its economy, and that may be starting to change. Canadian small cap equity analyst Dominic Drzazga examines the Build Canada theme: what it actually means beyond the headlines, and what has shifted since the federal election. He walks through the legislative groundwork, from the Building Canada Act to a fast-tracked pipeline of named projects, and explains why the clearest near-term opportunities potentially sit in the middle of the value chain rather than with the eventual asset owners. Above all,...
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Canadian equities gained in the second quarter of 2026 even as the economy tripped the technical definition of a recession and an oil shock sent crude toward $120 before it fell back. Institutional portfolio manager Kevin Minas and investment counsellor Stu Morrow review the quarter, from the gap between the Canadian market and the Canadian economy to the case for holding commodity exposure as geopolitical risk becomes a recurring feature rather than a one-off. They also discuss what a narrow, AI-led rally means for a diversified portfolio, record hyperscaler bond issuance in Canada, and how...
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Investment teams increasingly build and rely on their own AI tools, but the payoff depends on how deliberately a team reinvests the time that AI frees up. Emerging markets portfolio manager Wen Quan Cheong walks through how his team puts believability-weighted decision making into daily practice, and where AI has genuinely enhanced the process. He closes with a tour of the emerging-market themes he is watching most closely, from reshoring and clean-room capacity to physical AI, low-earth-orbit satellites, and businesses winning simply by putting the customer first. Above all, he returns to the...
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AI portfolio construction in global equity markets (memory semiconductors, mega IPOs, and how to manage concentration risk) is the focus of this conversation with Mawer’s global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz. Drawing on Homer's Odyssey, he explains the discipline the team applies when navigating themes that are moving quickly: from trimming SK Hynix systematically as the position grew, to sizing up what a wave of large IPOs means for cost of capital, to the central trade-off between underexposure and overconcentration in the AI complex. He also puts numbers around the portfolio's AI...
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Canada’s stock market has set repeated record highs in 2026, even as the domestic economy feels soft. Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford explains the gap between the two, and why a large weight in financials can represent more diversification rather than less. He walks through how the team rotated within the sector as the banks re-rated, and the discipline behind trimming a gold position that had run. As indexes themselves have grown more concentrated, the conversation lands on a simple idea: knowing what you own matters more than ever. Key takeaways • The...
info_outlineOn this episode of The Art of Boring, Global Credit Portfolio Manager Brian Carney unpacks what he believes are some of the most pressing issues in credit markets today. He explores whether recent private market bankruptcies signal deeper systemic concerns, how to position for sovereign bond issuer risk in a sticky inflation world, and the impact of the AI-driven debt wave on credit spreads. He also discusses regulatory rollbacks in the lending markets, credit risk premium mispricings, and concrete portfolio actions for late cycle markets.
Key Highlights
- Recent private market bankruptcies may signal broader, systemic credit market weakness rather than isolated events, with deteriorating lending standards and rising delinquencies warranting caution.
- Growing sovereign debt and persistent inflation are challenging the traditional “safe haven” status of U.S. Treasuries, prompting a preference for shorter duration and higher-quality credit exposure.
- The surge in AI-driven capital expenditures is fueling a wave of debt issuance by large tech companies, likely putting upward pressure on credit spreads and shifting market dynamics in favour of lenders over time.
- Regulatory rollbacks in the U.S. are reducing transparency and increasing risk-taking, especially in unregulated and private markets, raising concerns about financial stability and corporate behaviour.
- Credit risk premiums remain compressed, with investors often inadequately compensated for lower-quality credit risk; opportunities are limited, and selectivity is critical.
- Defensive positioning—focusing on capital preservation, short duration, and high-quality issuers—remains key, with readiness to deploy capital quickly when market dislocations create attractive opportunities.
Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guest: Brian Carney, CFA, Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.
Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.
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