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Property Market Crash 2026: Iran, Interest Rates and Irish Supply | BTF 272

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

Release Date: 04/20/2026

How the Iran War Will Hit Your Mortgage, and the Housing Crisis in Spain | BTF 281

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

LEARN MORE - YouTube Channel - *** Oil prices and property seem unrelated. They are not. In this episode I trace how the Iran war and oil above $100 a barrel will find its way into your wallet. It starts with the obvious first-order effects, fuel and heating bills. Then come the second-order effects most people miss, because oil and gas feed into around 500 products, from tyres and paint to fertiliser and insulation. Finally there are the third-order effects: inflation, higher interest rates, tighter mortgage approvals and developers being squeezed until projects stop being viable. That is...

Subject to Creative Financing with Chris A Williams | BTF 280

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

LEARN MORE - YouTube Channel - *** What if owning a property has nothing to do with getting the mortgage? My guest this week, Chris A Williams, buys houses in Virginia without applying for a new mortgage. He uses a creative financing strategy called "subject to": he takes over the seller's existing mortgage payments, takes the deed, and gets into each deal for under $20,000 all in. It won't work the same way here in Ireland, but the thinking behind it will change how you look at any deal that seems out of reach. First, the property news. Mortgage approvals hit record levels,...

Is Now the Right Time to Buy? (The 2026 Market Clock) | BTF 279

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

Is now a good time to buy property? It's the question Gavin gets more than any other, so in this episode he answers it properly. Using the market clock, he shows where sentiment actually sits (almost everyone says 11pm) and why "peak of the market" means nothing until you ask "peak of what?" Residential, office, industrial, data centres, hotels and medical are all moving differently. From there he breaks down the three forces that decide where prices go next: the bond market and rising interest rates, the AI bubble and whether it bursts like the dotcom crash, and the 18-year property cycle...

$11 Million From 50 Investors: How Syndication Works | BTF 278

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

Kyle McGee has raised $11 million from 50 investors. He is in his early thirties, and almost none of that money came from institutions. It came from aunts, uncles, family friends, and people who have sat in the same church as him for 30 years. This week I am breaking down syndication: the model where you raise money from a group of investors to buy an asset far bigger than you could buy on your own. It is not new. Irish partnerships were doing it in the early 2000s, including the syndicate that outbid a Saudi prince for the Savoy Hotel Group. Kyle is doing it at a more modest scale on the...

277: The Interest Rate Ladder | How It Affects Mortgage Payments

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

My father died in November 1993. When we finally opened the pile of post he had left behind, one letter showed the interest rate on the family home mortgage. It was 16%. In this episode I build what I am calling the Interest Rate Ladder. Every rung of ECB policy since the bank was created in 1999, priced against the same loan so you can see exactly what each rate does to a real monthly payment. The loan: €300,000, 25-year term, tracker at ECB plus 1%. We start where we are now, at a main refinancing rate of 2.4% and a payment of €1,486 a month. Then we climb down through the cutting...

276. Irish Property News Roundup for Week Ending 12.06.26

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

REGISTER FOR WORKSHOP - *** BTF Episode: 276. Irish Property News Roundup for Week Ending 12.06.26 All the news impacting the Irish property market in one place. If you enjoyed this episode please leave a review! *** Support for the podcast: Buy me a Coffee: Learn more about my Accelerator:

275. From Six-Pack to Seven Figures with Rob Lipsett

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

LEARN MORE 👉🏼 *** BTF Episode: 275. From Six-Pack to Seven Figures with Rob Lipsett Rob Lipsett has built Ireland's biggest fitness brand from his iPhone 5 and a few hours of grind after a 9-to-5. But this conversation isn't about health and fitness, it's about what comes after you've built your audience. We sat down in Marbella to talk business, property, and what it really takes to turn a personal brand into a long-term asset. Rob is one of the sharpest operator-creators I've come across — and his journey from college dropout to Villa Lipsett has lessons that go...

274. Is the 5x Income Mortgage a Dangerous Sign?

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

LEARN MORE 👉🏼 *** BTF Episode: 274. Is the 5x Income Mortgage a Dangerous Sign? Ireland’s mortgage market is shifting again, with Nua Money now offering up to 5x income borrowing. In this episode, we break down the history of Ireland’s lending rules and explore the potentially dangerous second-order effects of expanded credit colliding with rising construction costs and housing shortages. If you enjoyed this episode please leave a review! *** Support the channel:

273. Where Next for UK Property with Charlie FitzGibbon

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

LEARN MORE 👉🏼 *** My guest this week is Chalie Fitzgibbon who built a construction and development business in Edinburgh, Scotland, scaled it to a staff of 110 before grappling with some serious challenges that drove him to the decision to sell the business. All before his 30th birthday - this episode will open your eyes. If you enjoyed this episode please leave a review! Thank you *** Support the channel:

Property Market Crash 2026: Iran, Interest Rates and Irish Supply | BTF 272

Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

Is a property market crash coming in 2026? After a five-month break from the podcast, Gavin J Gallagher returns to make the case that we have just entered year one of a new 18-year property cycle, and that year one historically starts with a downturn. The episode opens with a personal story. In January, Gavin and his family stayed in the Fairmont on the Palm in Dubai, in a city-view room overlooking the car park. Weeks later that exact spot was the first impact site of the Iranian drone attack on Dubai. What followed has reshaped the risk picture for property investors in Ireland, the UK and...

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The episode opens with a personal story. In January, Gavin and his family stayed in the Fairmont on the Palm in Dubai, in a city-view room overlooking the car park. Weeks later that exact spot was the first impact site of the Iranian drone attack on Dubai. What followed has reshaped the risk picture for property investors in Ireland, the UK and across Europe.

Gavin breaks the market into two opposing forces. On the risk side: geopolitical conflict across Iran, Russia and Ukraine, and the US and China AI arms race; interest rates pushed higher for longer by energy-driven cost inflation; a debt overhang spanning government balance sheets, roughly three trillion in private credit, and AI and data centre overbuild; and the fragmentation of NATO and the Western alliance. Any one of these is manageable in isolation. The argument is that they are converging.

On the counterbalance side: a structural housing supply shortage. Ireland is delivering around 30,000 units a year against a requirement closer to 80,000, with a population up roughly one million since 2006, a planning system that slows delivery, and a construction labour market still hollowed out by the 2008 crash. Rent controls and the six-year rule have pushed landlords out and tightened rental supply further. Scarcity is holding the market up.

Gavin also covers continuity bias, the cognitive trap that makes investors assume the current system will simply persist, and the Dubai contrast, where 120,000 units are landing into a market that has just seen high-rise towers emptying out into low-lying villas.

He closes with who is positioned to win: developers, planning gain specialists, commercial-to-residential conversion operators, affordable housing providers, and anyone structuring capital conservatively across multiple funding sources. The message is not to get out of property. It is that luck no longer works, and downturns are where mispriced assets and distressed sellers create the best deals for investors who know what they are doing.

Chapters

(00:00) Straits of Hormuz reopened, then closed again
(02:04) Back after five months, and the question: is a crash coming?
(03:14) Dubai, the Fairmont, and the room that became a drone target
(04:57) When European airlines started cancelling Middle East flights
(06:19) The two-week ceasefire, and why it may not hold
(08:32) Continuity bias and why investors miss the turn
(09:32) The 18-year property cycle: 1990, 2008, 2026
(11:51) The four risks: geopolitics, rates, debt, fragmentation
(12:52) The US and China AI arms race
(15:04) Hormuz controls 20% of world oil and gas
(16:03) How energy costs feed inflation and interest rates
(17:53) Government debt, US debt servicing, and private credit
(19:22) AI overinvestment and the data centre five-year problem
(21:05) NATO fragmentation and what it means for Europe
(25:15) The counterbalance: structural supply shortage
(27:10) Irish planning delays and the missing construction labour
(29:11) Population up one million, housebuilding down
(30:05) Rent controls, the six-year rule, and landlord exit
(32:08) Dubai: 120,000 units into a nervous market
(33:55) Who wins in this cycle
(38:01) Why luck is finished and deliberate investing starts
(38:58) The cycle map: 2026 to 2029, 2030 to 2036

Mentioned in this episode

The 18-Year Property Cycle episode
Episode 271 with James Askew

Elite Property Accelerator is open for its next intake. Learn more: https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/

Behind The Facade is hosted by Gavin J Gallagher, a Dublin-based property investor and developer with 30 years in the Irish and international market, and first-hand experience of three property crashes.

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Support the channel: https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher

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