The Price of Policy: Taxes, Tariffs, and Capital Flows
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
Release Date: 09/09/2025
When Nobody's in Control: AI, Cyber Risk, and the Economics of Digital Trust
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
AI has the potential to bring a host of benefits to society and the global economy. It has fueled optimism around productivity, disinflation, and debt sustainability. But like many innovations that came before it, AI also brings a new set of challenges. The same technology that might boost economic growth and lift people out of poverty could also serve as a tool for cyberwarfare and fraud. Using AI, digital crimes could become faster, cheaper, and more scalable. AI is also becoming a new chokepoint in geopolitical competition: The discussion explores whether control of digital verification...
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The Visible Hand: Marketcrafting from AI to the Price of Money
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
Adam Smith introduced his concept of the “invisible hand” in the 18th century, offering a metaphor for how self-interest and competition guide a free-market economy. The case could be made that government policy is an increasingly crucial force in shaping markets today, particularly amid heightened geoeconomic competition and a resurgence in industrial policy. In this way, individuals and entities in both the private and public sectors can be “marketcrafters.” PGIM’s Daleep Singh is joined by Chris Hughes (Facebook co-founder, Chair of the Economic Security Project, and author of...
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Chip Craze: Framing Industrial Policy for the AI Era
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
The AI-driven capex cycle might be the biggest investment story of the past century. The five largest hyperscalers were on track to spend around $800 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, and as a share of U.S. GDP, AI capex has already eclipsed the dot-com boom of the 1990s. Chips are at the center of the AI frenzy – the same chips that also guide precision munitions and power satellite communications. In pursuit of a strategic advantage, nations are racing to shore up critical supply chains and achieve dominance in the economic arena. How will industrial policy’s reemergence influence...
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The Power Play: Is Fusion Nearing a Kitty Hawk Moment?
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
In an era of AI, data centers and electrification, rising power demand presents a range of challenges and investment opportunities across the energy sector. Bottlenecks in the supply chain, such as the backlog in gas turbine production, have grabbed headlines while the power-hungry digital infrastructure buildout lifts energy consumption. With the grid increasingly strained, commercial-grade fusion power is one innovative solution emerging in a rapidly evolving energy landscape. PGIM’s Daleep Singh visits Commonwealth Fusion Systems CEO Bob Mumgaard for a conversation inside the facility...
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Warsh’s Opening Act: Inside the Fed’s Regime Shift with James Bullard
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
The arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve marked a regime shift. At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dropped its easing bias, opening the door to interest rate hikes as supply shocks collide with hotter demand. The Fed also announced five new task forces to evaluate key priorities, from inflation frameworks to AI’s impact on productivity and the labor market. Under Warsh, the central bank sent an unmistakable message: This is just the opening act for a very different Fed. James Bullard, former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St....
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Strategic Stalemate: What Investors Miss About U.S.-China Competition
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
The military concept of escalation dominance posits that the side controlling the pace and pain of a conflict determines the outcome. For most of the Cold War era, the U.S. had escalation dominance—militarily, technologically, and economically—but the use of economic statecraft was limited. That era is over. As great power competition intensifies, the relationship between the U.S. and China offers a view into where competition is headed and what it means for global stability. While the U.S.-China summit resulted in an effective truce, there are deeper takeaways that investors and other...
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Beyond the Battlefield: Chokepoints in the Age of Economic Warfare
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
Global conflicts are increasingly playing out in the economic arena, not just on the battlefield. The war in Iran represents a collision of both. Physical and financial chokepoints can be used for strategic leverage; they also raise potential vulnerabilities. To unpack how and why economic warfare is reshaping the macro landscape, Daleep Singh speaks with Edward Fishman, author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare” and Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. The discussion explores...
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The Old Normal: Macro Shocks Amid War, AI, and Economic Rivalries
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
Marc Sumerlin, Managing Partner at Evenflow Macro and former Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush, joins Daleep Singh for a conversation about economic transformation on this episode of PGIM’s The Outthinking Investor. Daleep and Marc talk about macro shocks stemming from the Iran war, how U.S. budget deficits will influence policy rates and the economy, and the relationship between monetary and fiscal authorities in a new age of economic competition. The discussion...
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Second Order Effects – From Iran to China: A Live Conversation with Dr. Kurt Campbell
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
Daleep welcomed Kurt for an in-depth look at the U.S.-China relationship and the Iran war’s implications for Asia-Pacific. Speaking in front of a live audience, they also discussed how geopolitical shifts are reshaping economies, strategic leverage lurking in critical supply chains, and the outlook for Japan.
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Follow the Money: Inside the World’s Financial Plumbing
The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh
Daleep Singh catches up with Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former senior adviser to the U.S. Trade Representative, to gather his perspectives on how entrenched imbalances are translating into strategic leverage between economic powers. They explore the world’s financial plumbing, changes in trade and capital flows, and the implications for global markets. In this episode, Daleep and Brad also discuss: Why the world may be...
info_outlineFiscal policy shifts, from taxes to tariffs, are steering global capital and trade flows. The US, for instance, is attracting investments despite the tariff headlines—illustrating how the impact of these policies continues to evolve. In a dynamic policy environment, taxes and tariffs could create new implications for asset classes, sectors, and market structures.
This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores macro implications from taxes and tariffs, how policy changes are shaping the way investors allocate capital, and why economic growth could be more resilient against higher tariffs than in the past.
Our guests are:
- Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office
- Kimberly Clausing, professor of tax law and policy at UCLA School of Law and former lead economist in the US Treasury’s Office of Tax Policy
- Jeffrey Young, Head of Investment Strategy for PGIM’s quant team
Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.
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