The Outthinking Investor
In this environment of uncertainty, it's more important than ever for investors to think outside the box. Welcome to The Outthinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM that examines past events, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities across global capital markets. In Season 4, hosted by Toby Ricketts, experts from PGIM and the investment world bring unique perspectives as we explore a fast-changing landscape of investment opportunities and risks. Join us as we take a deep dive into the portfolio implications of a changing world.
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Minding Your Blind Spots: Investment Strategies for a New Regime
04/09/2024
Minding Your Blind Spots: Investment Strategies for a New Regime
The stock market crash of 1929 was a pivotal event that rippled across the globe. The Great Crash rocked financial markets, not to mention the world economy, and proved to be a precursor to the Great Depression. The sudden selloff wiped out the fortunes of investors who were ill prepared to ride out a bear market. Today, investors must heed the lessons from volatile markets of the past and take stock of hidden risks that may reveal themselves as current market conditions evolve. What strategies can investors employ to mitigate downside risks in their portfolios? This episode of The Outthinking Investor examines risk through the lens of alternatives. Experts discuss the challenges investors face in making the right decisions for their portfolios, taking a holistic view of diversification, and the role that alts can play in both managing risk and capturing opportunities that emerge from volatility. Hear from Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of the wealth advisory firm Elm Wealth and co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management; Apostolos Katsaris, Senior Client Portfolio Manager for PGIM Wadhwani; and Ryan Kelly, Head of Special Situations for PGIM Fixed Income.
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Healthy Returns: Identifying Future Winners Amid Rapid Medical Innovation
03/19/2024
Healthy Returns: Identifying Future Winners Amid Rapid Medical Innovation
Some medical breakthroughs come from unexpected sources. The origins of new weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic—known in the industry as GLP-1s—can be traced back to 2005, when they were introduced as a treatment for diabetes. Two decades later, these drugs have seemingly burst onto the medical scene, gaining notoriety for their ability to help people lose weight and the potential implications for a variety of other business sectors. This “Ozempic effect” serves as an important lesson for investors: Healthcare innovations often have a cascading impact on the economy and their portfolios. With the healthcare industry working overtime on the next big breakthrough, identifying future winners in the medical field will lead investors to new opportunities. The Outthinking Investor gathered insights from experts in the healthcare space to dig deeper into the future of medical innovations and how consumer behavior could change with the rise of weight-loss drugs. Our guests in this episode are Daniel Matviyenko, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Jennison’s healthcare strategies; Scott Swanson, Principal and Credit Analyst at PGIM Fixed Income; and Tim Dall, a health economist and Executive Director at GlobalData.
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Forever in Your Debt: Investment Risks in an Era of Big Spending
02/12/2024
Forever in Your Debt: Investment Risks in an Era of Big Spending
A storm may be brewing off the coast. It is not a new concern for investors, but its intensity has grown. The US federal government owes more than $34 trillion—and counting. This level of debt has the potential to wreak havoc, even for the world’s largest economy. Government debt has grown in other parts of the globe as well, and debt held by consumers and businesses can also pose economic risks. With a tsunami of debt lurking in the distance, investors must take stock of the potential ramifications if it ever crashes onto the shore. This episode of The Outthinking Investor addresses the economic challenges associated with an increasing debt burden, the impact on inflation, interest rates and financial markets, and fiscal policy prescriptions that could help bring the debt under control. Randal Quarles, former Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve; Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; and Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist for PGIM Fixed Income, join the podcast to give a unique perspective on the intersection of debt, fiscal policy and financial markets.
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Industrial Policy’s Rebirth Is Reshaping the Economy
01/09/2024
Industrial Policy’s Rebirth Is Reshaping the Economy
Industrial policy is making a comeback in the West. The US, Europe and other governments have introduced new incentives to the private sector in hopes of bringing supply chains closer to home, boosting domestic industries, and building strategic advantages in key technologies such as semiconductors and EVs. But success is not guaranteed. Can governments pick winners and losers? Do the potential benefits of industrial spending, such as driving innovation and economic growth, outweigh the consequences of higher debt and interest rates? This episode of The OUTThinking Investor gathered insights from three experts on economics and fiscal policy to help investors assess how industrial strategies will affect financial markets and the global economy. Our guests are Paul Romer, economics professor at Boston College and former Chief Economist at the World Bank; Simon Johnson, professor at MIT Sloan School of Management and co-author of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity; and Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist at PGIM Fixed Income.
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S4 Trailer: The Outthinking Investor
12/22/2023
S4 Trailer: The Outthinking Investor
In this environment of uncertainty, it's more important than ever for investors to think outside the box. Welcome to The Outthinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM that examines past events, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities across global capital markets. In Season 4, hosted by Toby Ricketts, experts from PGIM and the investment world bring unique perspectives as we explore a fast-changing landscape of investment opportunities and risks. Join us as we take a deep dive into the portfolio implications of a changing world.
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Help Wanted: Four Forces Transforming Labor Markets
11/27/2023
Help Wanted: Four Forces Transforming Labor Markets
The invention of the spinning jenny in 1764 upended the textile industry—and the women who earned a living weaving cotton and preparing fabrics in their homes. Suddenly, these jobs became obsolete. Just as the industrial revolution had a profound impact on how people worked and lived, structural forces are transforming global labor markets today, from slowing globalization to the advent of generative AI. The evolution of labor markets is poised to reshape the macro landscape in the years to come, posing broad implications across the investment portfolio. In this episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor, we talk to three experts about the transformation of labor markets, the economic impact, and how investors can identify leaders and laggards as the world embarks on a new era of work. Our guests are Greg Wright, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at Merced and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Zeynep Ton, a professor at MIT Sloan and author of the book The Case for Good Jobs: How Great Companies Bring Dignity, Pay and Meaning to Everyone’s Work; and Jakob Wilhelmus, Director of Thematic Research at PGIM. For more on this topic, visit PGIM.com to explore our Megatrends report, .
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Risky Business: Taking a Long-Term View on Market Shocks
10/09/2023
Risky Business: Taking a Long-Term View on Market Shocks
In one of Rembrandt’s famous paintings, Storm on the Sea of Galilee, a ship’s crew struggles to navigate through an epic storm thrashing the ship. But toward the stern, Jesus sits calmly. This image graced the cover of Peter Bernstein’s classic book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. So what can investors take away from a classic piece of Renaissance art? Market shocks can emerge suddenly and in unexpected ways. Mitigating the impact of these risks is no doubt challenging when they are difficult to predict. Still, investors need a gameplan. This episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor delivers fresh perspectives on potential risks to financial markets and explores strategies that agile investors can employ to protect their portfolios against the known and unknown. Joining us to discuss this topic are Scott Patterson, Wall Street Journal reporter and author of Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis; Ethan Wu, Financial Times reporter and host of the Unhedged podcast; and Michael Dicks, Chief Economist and Deputy Head of Research at PGIM Wadhwani.
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The AI Boom: Investing in a New Age of Tech
08/08/2023
The AI Boom: Investing in a New Age of Tech
Fans of the long-running game show Jeopardy will remember that one famous contestant stood out from the rest. IBM’s supercomputer, named Watson, beat two human opponents in a 2011 competition that brought artificial intelligence into the spotlight. More than a decade later, AI has taken a giant leap forward. Generative AI, made popular by the launch of ChatGPT, has already made its impact felt on the investment world, and it appears poised to shake up the modern economy as businesses find new ways of utilizing the technology. The next generation of AI presents new possibilities for the way people live, work and invest. This episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor explores a future reimagined by generative AI, from its business applications and social impact to the investment opportunities and risks across sectors. Guests David Ferrucci, the former project lead for Watson and founder of Elemental Cognition; Gillian Tett, US editor-at-large for the Financial Times; and Erika Klauer, portfolio manager of the technology fund at Jennison Associates, bring their unique perspectives to the topic of AI and how investors can prepare for what is to come.
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The New Oil: The Geopolitical Battle for Chip Dominance
07/11/2023
The New Oil: The Geopolitical Battle for Chip Dominance
Ever since the oil crisis of the 1970s and the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the United States has held millions of barrels of oil in a stockpile to safeguard the country—and its economy—from future supply shocks. Just as oil has kept the world’s economic engine running, a new critical component has emerged: the microchip. Everything from satellites and missiles to cars and toasters are powered by chips, making the semiconductor industry a linchpin of both the global economy and national security. The recent chip shortage affected virtually every industry, revealing a new vulnerability that businesses and policymakers are scrambling to address. Chris Miller, associate professor at Tufts University and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, and Dennis Lockhart, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, join this episode of The OUTThinking Investor to examine the global competition to fortify supplies of semiconductors. They discuss the role of geopolitics in chip production, how artificial intelligence is driving innovation and demand, and macroeconomic implications for investors to consider. For more on the near-shoring of strategic industries, visit PGIM’s OUTFront report, .
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Future of Food: Vast Implications for Investors
06/13/2023
Future of Food: Vast Implications for Investors
From growing rice on Mars to developing new farming techniques here on Earth, the future of food is rapidly evolving. The global food system—spanning farms, factories, grocery stores and more—is a complex network that has far-reaching economic implications. It is also inefficient and increasingly unfit for purpose, encouraging innovation across the value chain that will give rise to attractive investment opportunities. In the newest episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor, we take a deep dive into the world of food and its portfolio implications—whether seeking opportunities or mitigating hidden risks. Three experts provide unique perspectives on technological efforts to make food production more sustainable and efficient, the impact of inflation and recent shocks to the food system, China’s role in the supply chain, and how a growing population is driving demand. Joining us are agricultural and development economist Chris Barrett from Cornell University, Council on Foreign Relations fellow Zoe Zongyuan Liu, and PGIM Head of Thematic Research Shehriyar Antia. For more on this topic, explore PGIM’s Megatrends research, Food for Thought, at .
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David Rubenstein: Investing with a Purpose
05/09/2023
David Rubenstein: Investing with a Purpose
Watch the video version of this episode by visiting . Private markets represent a fast-growing asset class with unique opportunities for investors. The growth of private equity in particular has transformed the investment landscape over the last several decades. Private equity assets more than doubled over the course of a decade to reach $11.5 trillion by 2021. David Rubenstein, co-founder of The Carlyle Group, has played a prominent role in the evolution of private equity. His work beyond Carlyle is just as monumental—from advocating for broader investor and civic education to preserving historical treasures and landmarks. In this episode, Rubenstein joins David Hunt, PGIM’s President and CEO, for a wide-ranging conversation about private equity and alternative investing, inflation and the probability of a recession, the future of globalization, and philanthropy. They also discuss traits that great investors share, including a propensity to go against conventional wisdom.
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Pt. 2 - Lessons from the Banking Crisis: What Risks Remain?
04/17/2023
Pt. 2 - Lessons from the Banking Crisis: What Risks Remain?
This is the final installment of a two-part episode in which we further examine what sparked the latest bank crisis and whether it was a canary in the coal mine. Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator and writer of Unhedged for the Financial Times, and John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, join us to discuss the implications of banking fragilities, keeping a long-term investment horizon amid market volatility, and how swelling government debts could set the stage for new market risks. For more on this topic, visit our to explore views from across PGIM.
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Pt. 1 - Lessons from the Banking Crisis: What Risks Remain?
04/11/2023
Pt. 1 - Lessons from the Banking Crisis: What Risks Remain?
Like a lighthouse surveying the waters for signs of distress, investors are challenged to shield their portfolios from potential turmoil in financial markets. But uncovering risks before they reveal themselves is a monumental task—even for the most savvy investors. Fault lines lurking in the banking sector came into view in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. As a consequence of the pivot from years of ultra-low rates to the sudden tightening of monetary policy, investors must be on the lookout for new cracks that may form. In the first installment of a two-part episode, we take a closer look at the fallout from the bank crisis and where other risks could arise. Rob Kaplan, former President of the Dallas Fed, and George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of PGIM Quantitative Solutions, discuss lessons learned from banking turmoil, the difficult path ahead for central banks, and where investors can find longer-term opportunities amid an uncertain environment.
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Upside Risk: Uncovering Investment Opportunities in an Uncertain Market
03/07/2023
Upside Risk: Uncovering Investment Opportunities in an Uncertain Market
The Hotel Lafayette in downtown Buffalo, New York, was the site of the first-ever meeting of the Optimist Club, which gathered during a tumultuous period for financial markets following the panic of 1910. Research has shown that optimism provides a sense of control. As uncertainty hovers over markets today, investors might seek to harness the power of optimism to overcome financial stress and make better decisions for their portfolios. Can investors remain optimistic while also surveilling markets for downside risks? Economist Brad DeLong, author of Slouching Towards Utopia, and the CFA Institute Research Foundation’s Laurence Siegel, author of Fewer, Richer, Greener, join PGIM Fixed Income’s Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, to discuss reasons for investors to be optimistic about the future, particularly as opportunities emerge in the bond market.
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Greying and Growing: The Investment Impact of Demographic Changes
02/07/2023
Greying and Growing: The Investment Impact of Demographic Changes
Labor markets around the world tightened during the pandemic, contributing to a rapid rise in inflation. Demographic changes could make tight labor markets a lasting characteristic of the global economy. Most of the world’s biggest economies are home to an aging citizenry, while their populations are growing at a slower rate overall. These trends have the potential to alter market dynamics in the decades to come. Katharine Neiss, PGIM Fixed Income’s Chief European Economist, and Charles Goodhart, Emeritus Professor at the London School of Economics and author of The Great Demographic Reversal, join us as we explore the inflationary effects of demographic changes, the implications for monetary and fiscal policy, and how aging populations could reshape the economy and the global investment landscape.
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S3 Trailer: The OUTThinking Investor
01/13/2023
S3 Trailer: The OUTThinking Investor
When the future becomes increasingly uncertain, investors need to cut through the noise and think beyond the obvious answers. In season three of The OUTThinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM, global thought leaders and PGIM experts will bring their unique perspectives for the year ahead and beyond. Is inflation finally on the retreat? Can labor markets withstand an economic slowdown and demographic headwinds? Will the tense geopolitical climate ease or escalate? What is the outlook for interest rates after the rapid hikes of 2022? Join us as we reexamine the past, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities in global capital markets — to help you spot opportunities when markets are stressed and uncover risks when markets are rising.
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Tail Risks and Protecting Against the Unknown with Sushil Wadhwani
12/12/2022
Tail Risks and Protecting Against the Unknown with Sushil Wadhwani
Investors are challenged to mitigate the impact of a variety of risks, from rising inflation to a global economic downturn. What about the risks that are harder to imagine? Recent events such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have altered the investment outlook in significant ways, turning a spotlight on the potential for new tail risks that may be on the horizon. In this episode, PGIM Wadhwani CIO Sushil Wadhwani, author and UC Berkeley lecturer Kevin Coldiron, and Columbia Business School professor Laura Veldkamp discuss recent liquidity crises, portfolio strategies for managing tail risks, and why tighter monetary policies could expose cracks in the financial system. For more on this topic, PGIM’s analyzes the results of our tail-risk survey, which canvassed 400 senior decision-makers whose firms have a combined AUM of more than $12 trillion.
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The New Dynamics of Private Markets with Josh Lerner
11/15/2022
The New Dynamics of Private Markets with Josh Lerner
The Canada Pension Plan has prospered by investing in alternative markets such as private equity and debt, becoming a model for institutional investors around the world. Today, global pools of private capital stand at over $12 trillion, doubling in just six years. In this episode, PGIM COO Taimur Hyat and economist Josh Lerner from Harvard Business School offer unique perspectives into the factors driving growth in private markets, current investment opportunities, and the outlook for private markets as interest rates rise.
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The Future of the Energy Transition with Tom Steyer
10/18/2022
The Future of the Energy Transition with Tom Steyer
The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has created opportunities to invest in a broad array of green technologies. However, this evolution will be decades in the making with plenty of twists along the way. As the emergence of green energy takes shape, how can investors tap into renewables as well as underinvested corners of the traditional energy sector? In this episode, environmental activist and investor Tom Steyer, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ James Henderson, and PGIM Private Capital’s Brian Thomas discuss the portfolio implications and challenges associated with the energy transition.
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The Price and Peril of a Low-Rate Regime with Edward Chancellor
09/20/2022
The Price and Peril of a Low-Rate Regime with Edward Chancellor
The first experiment in quantitative easing ended in failure for 18th-century France. Is this a lesson for modern times? After years of ultra-low interest rates, central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat rampant inflation - a shift that has ignited volatility and depressed asset prices. With a sea change in interest rates underway, where can investors turn to bolster their portfolios? In this episode, PGIM Quantitative Solutions' Ed Campbell and financial historian and author Edward Chancellor discuss the pitfalls of low rates and the investment outlook for a new era.
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Deglobalization in a Post-Pandemic, War-Torn World
08/23/2022
Deglobalization in a Post-Pandemic, War-Torn World
The economy has undergone a massive transformation in a short period of time. Global lockdowns and the policy response to the pandemic have rippled through labor markets and supply chains, while war in Europe has added fuel to inflation’s surge. As the economy continues to evolve, what investment opportunities lie ahead? How will recent trends in technology, energy and business play out? Rob Kaplan and Adam Tooze join PGIM Fixed Income’s Ellen Gaske to analyze how the global economy is changing and consider what the future might hold for investors.
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Larry Summers on Rate Hikes, Recession Fears and Stagflation
07/27/2022
Larry Summers on Rate Hikes, Recession Fears and Stagflation
America's factories were humming during World War II, churning out supplies for the military. After the war, as government spending faded and inflation spiked, macroeconomists were worried that the economy would stumble. Nearly eight decades later, a surge in prices during the U.S. economy's recovery from the pandemic has stoked similar fears. What can we learn from the post-WWII period? Are we headed for economic stagnation, or even 1970s-style stagflation? Larry Summers discusses the economic outlook and implications for central bank policy.
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The Evolution and Future of Private-markets Investing
06/28/2022
The Evolution and Future of Private-markets Investing
America's economy underwent massive change in the 1800s, a period when wealthy financiers like Carnegie, Vanderbilt and Rockefeller played crucial roles in driving the industrial revolution. Today, access to private markets is expanding, and savvy investors are embracing this evolution as part of a diversified portfolio. What are the advantages, challenges, and future opportunities for investors in private markets - from venture capital to real estate to private equity and beyond? And how are private markets changing as the era of low inflation and rock-bottom rates comes to an end?
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The Days of Disco May Preview Future Inflation
05/24/2022
The Days of Disco May Preview Future Inflation
Investors may be looking back at the days of disco with a sense of déjà vu. Surging inflation, rising energy prices and the prospect of higher interest rates have sent a ripple through global financial markets – just like they did in the 1970s. In the Season 2 premiere of The OUTThinking Investor, we talk to PGIM experts to better understand today’s inflationary shock and how it will play out for investors.
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S2 Trailer: The OUTthinking Investor
05/11/2022
S2 Trailer: The OUTthinking Investor
Pandemic. War. Inflation. Deglobalization. Investors around the world face one of the most uncertain and tumultuous periods in recent memory. The Ukraine invasion, a tightening labor market, and fragmented supply chains are driving rapid inflation, while rising interest rates will cause headwinds for growth. With global capital markets shifting faster than ever, investors need to keep their finger on the pulse of change. Are we on the verge of a wage increase spiral? How is private capital changing the landscape for small firms? Can investors avoid greenwashing in their ESG exposure? What are the signposts for deglobalization? Welcome to Season 2 of The Outthinking Investor – an award-winning podcast from PGIM. In upcoming episodes, we’ll speak with global thought leaders and PGIM experts to understand the current trends and forces reshaping global finance. We’ll bring unique perspectives to the underappreciated challenges – and overlooked opportunities – that face investors today.
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Can Black Gold Be a Social Good?
11/29/2021
Can Black Gold Be a Social Good?
The Surprising Transformation of Sovereign Wealth Funds: We look beyond the oil-rich lands of the Middle East to uncover the unexpected beginnings of sovereign wealth funds (in Texas, of all places) and examine the structure of the world’s largest (in Norway). As AUM in SWFs continue to surge, how will they exert greater influence—and possibly even promote sustainability—over global markets?
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From Overzealous Clergymen to Underfunded Benefit
11/10/2021
From Overzealous Clergymen to Underfunded Benefit
The Bizarre Journey of Pension Plans: They got their start as an ambitious plan to support the penniless Scottish widows. Now, retirement assets are the largest pool of money in the world—by far—and have pronounced structural differences depending on which country a pensioner calls home. How did this happen? And how can pension plans stay solvent as the global population ages?
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From the Gutters of London to the Toast of Wall Street
10/19/2021
From the Gutters of London to the Toast of Wall Street
The Rapid-Fire Growth of ESG Investing: ESG is the trendy star of today’s financial headlines, but it’s also a movement that stretches back centuries. We look at the rich history of values-based investing, from its religious origins to a bold housing experiment in Victorian England, charting the course ahead for ESG by learning how market solutions can help answer social problems.
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From High-Stakes Battles to Record-Low Yields
09/28/2021
From High-Stakes Battles to Record-Low Yields
The Fascinating Evolution of the Bond Market: In our current environment of low—or even negative—interest rates, what can the past tell us about what’s in store for the $120 trillion bond market? Join us as we examine the evolution of debt, where we’ll learn how private credit fueled a financial revolution that has changed the course of history—from 1600s England, to the go-go Wall Street of the 1980s, to today.
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Trailer: The OUTThinking Investor
09/10/2021
Trailer: The OUTThinking Investor
Modern capital markets move faster and are more complex than ever, bringing together participants with oftentimes clashing goals and constraints. But by gaining a richer understanding of the market’s ongoing evolution—from its remarkable origins to its tantalizing future—investors will be better equipped to navigate the changing dynamics of global financial markets.
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