Reinvesting High Dividends Deep Dive | Unemployment & the Fed | Option Time Value Explained | Shareholder Yield
Release Date: 05/05/2024
MicroStrategy Market Cap vs Bitcoin | Valuations Getting Frothy ? | Yields vs Fed Cuts | Second Inflation Surge? | US Dollar Problem | Nvidia Options
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron’s article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their...
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S&P 500 6000 | Bitcoin Strategic Reserve? | Why Bond Yields May Go Higher | Fed Rate Cuts Near All-Time Highs Bullish?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli decide who got the S&P 500 Index 6000 prediction right. Then they talk about Bitcoin running to new highs and some theories about a Bitcoin strategic reserve now that Trump is the President Elect. Later, they review some data pointing to bond yields remaining high (or going higher). Then discussing how investment banks S&P targets rise to follow the markets. All that plus a listener email. Small Cap fund flows into IWM TLT ETF bond flows Bitcoin makes new highs and ETF fund flows surge Hussman 12-year forward estimate nonfinancial market cap...
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Unemployment Bad News? | Markets After Elections | Earnings Beats | Trump vs. Harris Election Analysis
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported. Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they look at next week’s prediction for interest rates for the Fed Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the 10-year treasury and talk about what’s happened since the first Fed cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market concentration of the top 10 stocks, seasonality in the S&P 500 index, and looking at earnings...
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Goldman Makes News With 3% S&P Target | Markets Too Concentrated? | What If Mortgage Rates Don’t Fall? | Gold Returns Examined
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple’s options volatility pre-earnings. ...
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Small Caps Get Their Day | Buffett’s Apple Blunder? | Bull Market Length | Nvidia Cisco Comparison | Netflix Options Volatility
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are discussing what segments of the market are now working on in October plus whether new auto loan delinquencies are something to worry about. Then, reacting to Barron’s headline saying Warren Buffett selling Apple shares may have resulted in leaving $25 billion on the table. Later, they get into whether the comparisons of Nvidia today to Cisco in the late nineties is a fare comparison and if Nvidia is as overvalued as Cisco was in retrospect. Finally, they delve into the options action on Netflix and earnings, S&P 500 Index changes, and whether this...
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Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn’t around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX earnings and what the options market is saying plus a few other companies including United...
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VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli ask whether the VIX is too high given markets are at all-time highs and compare today to some previous periods. Then, they delve into the employment report which surprised in a positive way. Was good news good news for once? What this means for probabilities of future rate cuts by the Fed, the port strike that wrapped up, and a look at some individual tickers and markets from a technical analysis standpoint. Resistance, support, wedges and more on this week’s episode. Why is the VIX so high with the market at all-time highs VIX historically at market...
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S&P 500 Going to 7000? | NAV Erosion Myth | Fed HAS Cut Rates at All-Time Highs| China & Emerging Markets Surge | Answering Audience Questions
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli this week answer some audience questions plus comparing 1995 first Fed rate cut to today’s market and asking if the next year can be a repeat of the 1995-96 period. They also dispel the myth that the Fed has never cut rates when markets are at all-time highs. Later, they look at the China and Emerging markets surge after the Chinese government does a bunch of things to juice markets. In the questions Derek and Jay dispel some myths between NAV erosion and NAV decline. All this and more this week on the Broke Pie Chart Podcast. Similarities between 1995...
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Fed Goes Big | Market Performance After Rate Cuts | Election Volatility in VIX Futures Is a Crowded Trade | Year End S&P 500 Predictions
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to do a post Fed 50 basis point cut analysis. What typically happens a year later in markets after the first interest rate cut? Maybe there isn’t election volatility priced into the VIX and it’s all to do with interest rates. Plus, looking back at the S&P 500 year end 2024 predictions top investment banks made in December of 2023. Hint, it didn’t go the way they expected. How many new all-time highs have we had this year and how does that compare with past years? More all-time highs All-time highs by month Will the market go to 6000?...
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Fed Decision Primer | CPI Disappoints? | Market Breakout or Breakdown? | Market Pricing in Too Many Cuts?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore covers what you need to know going into the fed meeting. Plus, reviewing whether the Fed has ever cut rates with a forward price to earnings ratios this high? Then looking at potential technical analysis outcomes on the S&P 500 Index include a cup with handle, triple top, and more. Historical Forward PE ratios at Fed cuts VIX Index doesn’t go berserk during Wednesday’s CPI selloff and recovery Is the market pricing in too many future fed cuts Comparing CPI Supercore, CPI Core, and CPI from a month over month annualized basis Does CPI tell us anything about future Fed...
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Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial this week to discuss the Jay Powell Fed decision and the latest in employment and inflation. Then, they do a deep dive into dividend reinvestment. Specifically, analyzing the idea of acquiring more shares and can dividends reduce or eventually pay down your initial cost? They then do a deep dive into how the time premium works on options.
Lowest year over year wages since 2021
Unemployment ticks up.
High dividend stocks and dividend reinvestment deep dive
Acquiring more shares through dividend reinvestment
Compounding dividends through dividend reinvestment and increasing share count.
What is shareholder yield?
What is buyback yield vs dividend yield?
Fed higher for longer is now consensus.
What is time value of an option
Looking at option premium and time value through the market maker lens
Exploring the SPX 6000 Call option expiring Dec 31st, 2024, premium and time value
How options are priced
How market makers taking the other side of customer orders have to hedge their positions
Components of unemployment report labor force size vs employed and unemployed
Selling option premium to create high dividends
Mentioned in this Episode
Is it 1994 All Over Again? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306
Now Its 1 Fed Rate Cut? | Nvidia Options Volatility Implied Move at Earnings | Sell in May and Go Away in Election Years? | Inflation Higher Than 1970s? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/now-its-1-fed-rate-cut-nvidia-options-volatility-implied/id1432836154?i=1000653836218
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]