Broken Pie Chart
The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.
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MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500 Index Turnover Matters | Fed Does Nothing, but Should They Have? | Inflation Nowcast
05/12/2025
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500 Index Turnover Matters | Fed Does Nothing, but Should They Have? | Inflation Nowcast
Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wrong or not to keep rates steady. MSTR MicroStrategy potential to join the S&P 500 Index? Requirements for a company to enter the S&P 500 Index Why companies entering and leaving helps the long-term growth of the index Where to look for emerging candidates to enter the S&P 500 Index Vanguard Extended Market ETF Should the Fed have lowered rates? What is the Trueflation index? CPI inflation for April released this week Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Trueflation vs CPI Inflation Mentioned in this Episode Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Sam Ro article on S&P 500 Index company turnover Vanguards Extended Market ETF Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later
05/04/2025
Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later
Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk. Components of GDP Net exports calculation When markets have a near bear market how much on average is the market higher 1-year later? What is an almost bear market? Unemployment review after Friday’s release Will the Fed cut rates at the May meeting? Scott Bessent says the 2-year treasury is telling the Fed to cut Comparing various CPI inflation rates in March AAII investors still mega bearish Barrons polls market people who are most bearish in 30 years Is the Barrons cover a contrarian signal? Why the Fed didn’t end inflation in 2022, and their rate increases didn’t do anything Sell in May and go away? Best historical time periods for returns Mentioned in this Episode Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary says the Fed needs to cut Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500 Targets | Apple Earnings Implied Volatility Expected Move |
04/27/2025
Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500 Targets | Apple Earnings Implied Volatility Expected Move |
Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the media talks about ends of eras and more. Apple earnings implied volatility What is the implied volatility expected earnings move for Apple FMS manager survey shows fund managers were max bearish near recent bottom Distance off the low is now +10% after being down -18.90% All that said, the S&P is down -10% off the all-time high Investment banks start downgrading their year end S&P 500 Index targets Bear case for housing due to high mortgage rates Earnings have been good so far but what about the future? Comparing mortgage payments at low vs 7% rates Sentiment and VIX readings near contrarian lows like prior periods Container shipping container rates are down and that is not inflationary Container shipping volume and capacity are all down Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still
04/21/2025
Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still
Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even consider them? Finally, how fund managers were overly long US Equities in December but now after the selloff they are saying they may reduce US equities. A little late no and how even professionals may react, panic, or be influenced by prevailing sentiment. Gold all-time high US Dollar and US Treasuries get correlated with US equities and weren’t the safe havens The airport crowdedness indicator of recessions? Fundamental EPS estimates are down a little but not much so far so what are they waiting for? Big earnings week including Tesla and Google (Alphabet) Fund manager surveys show they were overly long US equities before the selloff Fund manager surveys also show as equities are in drawdown, they are thinking of selling High Yield spreads not showing recession levels of widening currently Typical high yield spread during recessions is 1000 basis points plus How economists tend to crowd together in their predicting recessions VIX Index implied volatility (expected) vs actual volatility (historical) Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow!
04/13/2025
Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow!
Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week. Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility Did the market bottom this week? Comparing volatility in March 2020 to tariff selloff today Context on how much market moved in a day to a normal year Intraday move was literally 2 ½ hours for a market to move 9% Biggest up days cluster around the biggest down days Bond yields surging is a problem Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen gets when tariffs are paused for 90 days The VIX Index wasn’t pricing the crazy daily moves we’ve seen in markets Why investors shouldn’t panic sell Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions
04/05/2025
Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn’t price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren’t high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement? What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and are we at max panic yet plus the continued case for hedging. When do we reach capitulation? The market is cheaper so will people step in and buy? The problem analysts have in making forecasts given the tariff landscape Explaining implied volatility vs historical volatility Why was the VIX higher after the first bad day Thursday Discussing how a VIX closes at 45 is significant Remembering sentiment at different inflection points in the market like 2020, 2015 2000 etc Markets are back to where they were in August when the Yen Carry trade unwound Why investors shouldn’t panic The case for using hedged equity strategies What does a bottom look like? Market is much cheaper on a forward valuation basis What are the economic risks? Unemployment was fine and the economy was adding jobs so what’s the problem? Atlanta Fed GDP Update Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility
03/31/2025
Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility
Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500 Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are? Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high Mentioned in this Episode Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model ECON PI Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots
03/24/2025
Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots
Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months AAII Bull Bear Spreads says way bearish still Fed dot plots Fed Funds Futures rate expectations Multiple Contraction is the reason for the drawdown not a reduction in earnings estimates LEI Leading Economic Indicator Mentioned in this Episode Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator . CME Fed watch Tool Federal Reserve Dot Plots Summary of Economic Projections March 2025 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion | Nvidia Rallies | Dollar Problem Solved? | Fear and Greed Index | Consumer Sentiment Indicator is Worthless
03/16/2025
Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion | Nvidia Rallies | Dollar Problem Solved? | Fear and Greed Index | Consumer Sentiment Indicator is Worthless
Derek Moore is back to break down the wild week including Nvidia rallying when against the bearish tide. How the US Dollar index pulling back might be bullish for earnings. Plus, have we reached max panic and max bearishness setting up for a near term bottom in markets? Later, looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the VIX Inversion and what that means for markets, and why people are now bullish or bearish based on politics. All that and more! Fear and Greed Index Drawdowns vs full year market performance US Dollar index US Trade Weighed Dollar Index University of Michigan Sentiment Indicator Republicans vs Democrats Nvidia was up close to 8% last week Micron earnings through Implied Volatility Readings Long Straddle cost before earnings VIX Futures curve inversion Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails
03/10/2025
Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails
Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they come back but this week we dig into everything markets and provide some historical context and whether there are bullish signs. Peter Lynch on corrections from 1994 Comparing this drawdown to all the others since 2009 Why investors shouldn’t panic Reminding everyone why it’s good to be hedged to ease your mind around corrections What are options markets saying via the implied volatility levels and the Vix Index Comparing 10 Day implied volatility on SPY options vs 90 Day implied volatility The S&P 500 Index forward PE ration vs earnings estimates Nvidia bear market territory despite earnings beats and falling Forward PE ratio Washington DC new unemployment claims in perspective The unemployment rate of 4.1 percent threads the needle 3 Fed Rate cuts now priced in 2025? Value of hedging your portfolio High yield has held up ok so far compared to the equity market Earnings estimates are still higher, but will analysts cut them due to tariffs? Uncertainty of Tariffs Why the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast went negative Balance of trade on exports minus imports due to tariffs gets really wide Trade deficit expands Mentioned in this Episode Peter Lynch 1994 video talking about corrections in markets frequency Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart
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Investors Get Bearish |Nvidia Earnings | Implied Volatility Broadcom | Effective Tariff Increase | Mag 7 Correction
03/03/2025
Investors Get Bearish |Nvidia Earnings | Implied Volatility Broadcom | Effective Tariff Increase | Mag 7 Correction
Derek Moore goes through last week’s pullback and Nvidia’s post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn’t made a new high since December but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down. Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total world stock market ETFs Forward PE levels drop as markets retrace while earnings estimates rise US Effective Tariff Rate impact of various potential tariffs according to Goldman Sachs AAII survey goes full bear but is it justified compared to prior periods? Broadcom earnings and what the implied volatility suggests a 1 standard deviation move is Did the options market get the post earnings Nvidia move correct? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Higher Jan & Feb Means Bull Continues? | Broadening Market Outside Mag 7 | Profit Margins Rising | International Outperforming | Nvidia Options & Earnings
02/24/2025
Higher Jan & Feb Means Bull Continues? | Broadening Market Outside Mag 7 | Profit Margins Rising | International Outperforming | Nvidia Options & Earnings
Derek Moore and Mike Puck talk about the resurgence of international stocks against the US. Plus, how the rest of the market has a similar performance to the Mag 7, indicating a broadening out of stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Later, they discuss what markets historically have done after being up in January and February. Profit margins are rising outside the Mag 7 names and looking at the expected Nvidia move around earnings based upon the implied volatility levels. S&P 500 Index 493 vs the Mag 7 year to date International stocks including emerging markets and developed markets shine against the US Profit margins continue to rise across the entire S&P 500 Index RSP vs SPY vs EEM vs EFA year to date performance relative to one another Average performance since 1950 for the S&P 500 Index after being up January and February Nvidia options before next week’s earnings announcement Calculate expected moves in Nvidia based on implied volatility Pricing the long straddle and short straddle on Nvidia pre-earnings Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Bond Rates Staying Higher | Forward PE Multiples | Implied Volatility During Earnings | Nominal GDP vs 10 Year Yield
02/17/2025
Bond Rates Staying Higher | Forward PE Multiples | Implied Volatility During Earnings | Nominal GDP vs 10 Year Yield
Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be up or down. Finally, most people look at Real Inflation adjusted GDP, but Nominal GDP growth may be correlated to the 10-year yield and what that means if we go back to pre-GFC nominal growth rates. All this and more. What is Nominal GDP Growth Rate? What is Real GDP growth? The US Dollar index and whether we are out of the zone of significance yet? Inflation in services remains sticky Why interest rates staying higher isn’t necessarily a problem for the stock market Quantifying sensitivity of the S&P 500 Index to small changes in the forward PE multiple 1994-95 vs 2024-25 update around treasury yields, S&P 500 returns Alibaba and Arista earnings this week and their option implied moves How to calculate expected move around earnings based on implied volatility levels Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Unemployment | MicroStrategy Volatility Too Low? | Tariffs Are Fine for Markets? | Inflation Expectations Shoot Up
02/10/2025
Unemployment | MicroStrategy Volatility Too Low? | Tariffs Are Fine for Markets? | Inflation Expectations Shoot Up
Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to react to the unemployment report. Was it good or bad for the markets and why? Plus, they review the last trade and tariff war from 2017-2018 and how the market actually did pretty well. Later, the latest survey on forward inflation expectations is now over 5%. Finally, they compare MicroStrategy’s implied volatility to Blackrock’s IBIT ETF and whether the options market is undervaluing MSTR’s IV. All that and more this week. Markets performance back in 2017-2018 when tariffs were enacted Inflation expectations shoot up due to tariffs Stock market performance during the 2017-2018 trade and tariff war MicroStrategy implied volatility Comparing MicroStrategy volatility to Blackrock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF Looking at the breakeven on a long MSTR straddle and the risks Reviewing the unemployment report Will unemployment go down due to new government strategic focus? AI mentions on S&P 500 earnings calls 83% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 6% US Non-Farm Payrolls consecutive positive months BLS forgot to fill in the monthly change on unemployment report? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Tariffs | Market Fragility | Mortgage Rate Spread to Treasuries | Analysts Estimates Are Pretty Accurate
02/03/2025
Tariffs | Market Fragility | Mortgage Rate Spread to Treasuries | Analysts Estimates Are Pretty Accurate
Derek Moore previews Palantir, Amazon, and Google earnings implied volatility expectations based on the option market. Plus, how currency movements may or may not mute new tariffs. Later, Derek answers a listener question on why mortgage rates (and bonds) have a spread between their rate and the 10 Year Treasury yield. Plus, digging into new data that shows analysts producing earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index are pretty accurate as it turns out. Finally, what is market fragility and are we in a fragility period right now? What is market fragility? Analyst estimates vs actuals show analysts might know what they are doing 30-year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury Why is there a spread above treasuries What is reinvestment risk on mortgage bonds? Tariffs impact on markets How currency moves on the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, and Chinese Yuan may blunt tariffs Will tariffs cause more onshoring and manufacturing in the US? Sentiment was tariffs would be used as a threat, then they’ll be short lived, so now what? Mentioned in this Episode Analysts are pretty good at predicting earnings from Sam Ro Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Downside Protection is for Suckers? | Big Earnings Week | Percent of Time in Recessions | Bacon Egg & Cheese Inflation Index | Implied Volatility & Earnings
01/27/2025
Downside Protection is for Suckers? | Big Earnings Week | Percent of Time in Recessions | Bacon Egg & Cheese Inflation Index | Implied Volatility & Earnings
Derek Moore previews Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft earnings by looking at the implied moves around earning by the options market. Plus, Bloomberg comes out with a new inflation gauge called The Bacon Egg & Cheese Sandwich index. Later, Derek talks about a new study which shows the percentage of time in recessions by decades. Oh, and reacting to a headline “hedging is for suckers” and why it’s wrong. Zero Hedge article headline “Downside Protection is for Suckers” reaction Percent of time in recessions Bacon Egg & Cheese Inflation Index from Bloomberg Implied volatility on major companies reporting earnings TSLA, MSFT, and AAPL How to easily calculate the options market implied 1-day 1-standard deviation move Why implied volatility moves higher pre-earnings Cost of a options Straddle trade around earnings Risks of a straddle trade both buying and selling the straddle Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Bitcoin Can’t Be This Easy? | S&P 500 Concentration Doesn’t Matter | Company Additions to S&P Performance | Implied Volatility Options Netflix Pre-Earnings
01/20/2025
Bitcoin Can’t Be This Easy? | S&P 500 Concentration Doesn’t Matter | Company Additions to S&P Performance | Implied Volatility Options Netflix Pre-Earnings
Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Mike Puck to talk markets including how people seem to think making money in Bitcoin is too easy and what that means. Plus, why the S&P 500 Index concentration may not be as big of a deal when looking at how the index changes. Comparing the top 10 market weighted stocks in 1997 to today. Later they discuss value vs growth performance, the dollar index, interest rates, and look at the implied volatility of Netflix options before earnings. Finally, they talk about how what seems obvious to all the CNBC talking head guests may not be the case. Concentration in the top stocks within the S&P 500 Index Comparing the top weighted companies today vs 1997 in the S&P 500 Index How today its all tech vs 30 years ago Why owning the S&P 500 Index is more active than you think Additions to the S&P 500 Index in 2024 and their performance Implied volatility in Netflix options pre-earnings Calculating the implied move around earnings based on implied volatility Looking at the ATM long straddle before earnings including the risk Dollar index and EPS in the S&P correlation Bitcoin believers are starting to think its too easy to make money Bitcoin maximalists have been rewarded, and Derek is still a skeptic Value vs Growth and why Value is a tough sell to money managers Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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It Matters When It Matters | Employment Too Good? | Interest Rate Problem? | Dollar Problem? | Earnings Still Good? | AI The 6th Great Innovation?
01/13/2025
It Matters When It Matters | Employment Too Good? | Interest Rate Problem? | Dollar Problem? | Earnings Still Good? | AI The 6th Great Innovation?
Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Spencer Wright to discuss the surge in bond yields, the surge in the US Dollar Index, and whether those two things might cause some near-term pain for equity markets. Plus, discussing whether AI Artificial Intelligence is a true next technological revolution and what it means for earnings. Then they talk semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI and do some technical analysis reviewing the patterns in the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq 100, Semiconductors and bond yields. Oh, and there was the unemployment report that markets didn’t like in the moment as it was “too good” because does it mean the Fed is done cutting? All this and more this week! Bond interest rates surge as 10-year treasury hits 4.7% UK Gilt Bonds surge to a higher rate than when the government had to step in Unemployment surprises at 4.1% but market reacts negatively Fed rate cuts not priced in until October 29th meeting and 1 cut at that AI Artificial Intelligence – is it the 6th great sea change revolution? Semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI Technical analysis triangle patters Technical analysis on NDX, SPX, and Semiconductors The trade weighted dollar index and impact to earnings due to currency exchange Are high rates bad or just the journey to get there first? Technical analysis book recommendations Mentioned in this Episode Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas N. Bulkowski Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?
01/06/2025
Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?
Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed? Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data MicroStrategy implied volatility S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500 Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move? Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers Mentioned in this Episode JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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2025 Predictions | Un-Inverted Curve | China Deflation Tariff Solution?| Bitcoin Quantum Problem?
12/30/2024
2025 Predictions | Un-Inverted Curve | China Deflation Tariff Solution?| Bitcoin Quantum Problem?
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli round out the year with some 2025 predictions on markets, rates, bonds, oil, bitcoin, the dollar, GDP, inflation, and gold. Plus, does Bitcoin have a Quantum Computing problem? What’s going on with deflation in China and is it the answer to potential tariffs? And news flash, the inverted yield curve is no more as the 10-year treasury yield rises above the 3-month treasury yield. All this and more! 2025 Predictions China Deflation including 10-year Chinese Government Bond yields falling China currency valuation, bond yields, and deflation a recipe to nullify US tariffs? Quantum computer by Google and can it mine Bitcoin? Will Quantum computers put Bitcoin wallets at risk? (part of our random predictions) The reversion or un-inversion of the 10 year and the 3-month treasury The inverted yield curve was the longest ever and didn’t cause a recession Will the un-inverted yield curve now cause a recession? VIX Index vs VIX futures spread Additions and subtractions to the S&P 500 Index Commodities including coffee, rubber, and cocoa rise Earnings season soon upon us Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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VIX Spikes as Market Has Tantrum | Fed Hawkish Cut| Inflation Not Getting to 2% | Dollar Index Breaks Out
12/23/2024
VIX Spikes as Market Has Tantrum | Fed Hawkish Cut| Inflation Not Getting to 2% | Dollar Index Breaks Out
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli react to the Fed meeting where people are calling it a hawkish cut and a reset of future expectations of where interest rates end up. Plus, the Dot Plots say long run PCE Inflation will only go to 3% not 2%. Later looking at the Trade Weighted Dollar Index breakout and if it will become a problem for earnings growth in 2025. Of course, the big news last week was the spike in the VIX as the market had a temper tantrum. Finally, they go into earnings expectation, price to forward sales ratio, real retail sales, and more and even a wacky (or not) Amazon prediction. Fed Hawkish Rate cut Fed PCE Inflation Dot Plot 3% long run target The Fed Pivot or Fed Reset in effect? The VIX Spikes as the market has a tantrum after Powell press conference Looking at current forward pe ratio for the S&P 500 Index now Earnings expectations and the strong US Dollar The US Dollar breaks out above resistance Forward Price to Sales ratio getting elevated? Goods vs services inflation PPI services is still elevated Would Amazon ever break out its business units to take advantage of AI and their chip? Greenspan fed vs Powell 1994 bull market vs this bull market and does it mean longer to run? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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S&P 500 7000 By Year End 2025? | Multiples vs Earnings Growth | Inflation Still Too High? | Probabilities Calculated Using Options | Fair Share on Taxes?
12/16/2024
S&P 500 7000 By Year End 2025? | Multiples vs Earnings Growth | Inflation Still Too High? | Probabilities Calculated Using Options | Fair Share on Taxes?
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli gather once again to discuss whether inflation is too high for the Fed to aggressively cut rates more. Then, they talk about the probability of the S&P 500 closing or getting to 7000 by year end 2025. Plus, is inflation still too high looking at Core CPI and CPI Supercore for the fed to cut rates as much as projected. Later, they go into some myths on the US debt and foreign ownership of treasuries, US Dollar Index against some resistance levels, what does paying your fair share in taxes mean, and more. How probabilities are calculated based on option prices Current probability of the S&P 500 Index hitting 7000 by year end 2025 Difference between probability of touching and probability of expiring in the money Looking at the current forward PE ratio and multiple for the S&P Calculating theoretical year end 2025 S&P price at different earnings and multiples Is the PE multiple too high? US Dollar moves higher but coming up against resistance? Looking at who owns the $34 Trillion US Debt Percentage of foreign countries who own treasuries Many people think China owns more treasuries than it currently does How much does the Fed own of outstanding US debt? What does paying your fair share in taxes mean? Income comparisons when including government transfer payments (benefits) and taxes Data from New York City points to a small number of people paying most of the taxes CPI Supercore CPI Core and the Fed targets Shelter inflation How big of a company would SpaceX be if it went public? Broadcom hits $1 Trillion in market cap today Mentioned in this Episode CBO report on Distribution of Household Income NYC Department of Taxation Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Hawk Tuah Crypto Scam? | United Healthcare CEO Single Stock Risk| Unemployment Breakdown | +29% S&P Years More Common| MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin
12/09/2024
Hawk Tuah Crypto Scam? | United Healthcare CEO Single Stock Risk| Unemployment Breakdown | +29% S&P Years More Common| MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli cover markets including the news on the CEO of United Healthcare, the Hawk Tuah meme coin alleged scam, unpacking the latest unemployment report, how markets go up 29% or more in a year more often than you’d think, and how the rotation of voting members of the FOMC might be hawkish in 2025. Plus, checking in on the ratio of returns of MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin. Plus, looking at the 53-month drawdown in the US Aggregate Bond Index and corresponding ETF. Hawk Tuah crypto meme coin alleged scam, pump and dump, rug pull etc (alleged) What is a pump and dump, or rug pull? Why would anyone buy a meme coin? Reacting to the news on United Healthcare’s CEO being murdered Understanding single stock risk and hedging Reviewing the components of the latest unemployment numbers Difference between the household and establishment employment survey Was there more unemployment or more new entrants that drove the number? US Aggregate Bond Index ETF AGG’s years long drawdown Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy relative performance since the recent all-time high in MicroStrategy Looking at the relative ratio of performance on the way up and since it’s retraced Who’s out and who’s in at the Fed FOMC voting committee in 2025 US Average Hourly Earnings Bloomberg’s AI program to identify how many S&P 500 companies mentioned job cuts Contribution to the US Unemployment rate Mentioned in this Episode US Unemployment report (the one with the unemployment rate percentage) Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Markets Getting Overvalued? | MicroStrategy Convertible Bonds| 1st Year Presidential Cycle | 2025 Year End S&P 500 Targets Lazy?| MicroStrategy Option Volatility
12/02/2024
Markets Getting Overvalued? | MicroStrategy Convertible Bonds| 1st Year Presidential Cycle | 2025 Year End S&P 500 Targets Lazy?| MicroStrategy Option Volatility
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli join up once again to talk about whether the forward PE ratio is getting overextended. Then, they discuss where we are in the 4-year Presidential market cycle, years with the most all-time highs, the US Dollar and interest rates, and PCE inflation numbers. Later, they get into the dynamics of the MicroStrategy convertible bonds and how they resemble options. Finally, they talk through the option dynamics on MicroStrategy include what the implied volatility is, what it is implying for a move over the next year, and what the breakeven levels would be on a 1-year option. Hint, it may be crazy! MicroStrategy convertible bonds explained MicroStrategy option implied volatility Price of the 1-year MicroStrategy straddle and breakeven levels 2025 Wall Street S&P 500 Index year end targets Looking at how many times the markets are average Inflation is still above the 2% Fed supposed target so what now? US Dollar index and interest rates Which year had the most intra-year all-time highs? 1st year of the presidential cycle and the market Forward PE ratios are extended so is that an issue? Makeup of the S&P 500 Index companies is different today than 40 years ago Checking in on earnings estimates Mentioned in this Episode Historical Market returns S&P 500, Tbills, Tbonds, gold, and housing since 1928 from Professor Aswath Damodaran and NYU Stern School of Business Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Nvidia Gets Cheaper?|Buying Bitcoin vs Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy | Dominos vs. Google | Historical Post Election Markets | Morgan Stanley Says 6500 SPX in 25’
11/25/2024
Nvidia Gets Cheaper?|Buying Bitcoin vs Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy | Dominos vs. Google | Historical Post Election Markets | Morgan Stanley Says 6500 SPX in 25’
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back on the big 300th episode to discuss whether Michael Saylor’s ‘Bitcoin Yield’ makes sense and looking at why people are buying MicroStrategy vs just buying Bitcoin. Then they talk Nvidia earnings and how it is getting cheaper on a forward 12-month PE ratio basis even as the price has moved higher. Plus, they look at the options action on Nvidia right before earnings. Speaking of semiconductors, they look at a potentially bearish pattern in the SOX Index, the Dollar Yen pair getting back to August levels, and ask the question if you could have bought Dominos Pizza or Google at their respective IPOs, which one would you have taken and how its worked out. MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Wall Street Journal Jonathan Weil article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy What is the Bitcoin Yield? Forward PE ratio of Nvidia vs its price Nvidia earnings options action Performance of Dominos Pizza vs Google since their respective IPOs Median S&P 500 Index historical performance post-election and after inauguration US vs international vs The Dollar post-election performance Argentia ETF post Javier Milei’s election victory bullish move The Dollar Yen pair moves back towards the old August highs, but does it mean anything? Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put a 6500 year end 2025 price target on the S&P 500 Mentioned in this Episode MicroStrategy’s Magical Bitcoin Machine article in WSJ by Jonathan Weil Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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MicroStrategy Market Cap vs Bitcoin | Valuations Getting Frothy ? | Yields vs Fed Cuts | Second Inflation Surge? | US Dollar Problem | Nvidia Options
11/18/2024
MicroStrategy Market Cap vs Bitcoin | Valuations Getting Frothy ? | Yields vs Fed Cuts | Second Inflation Surge? | US Dollar Problem | Nvidia Options
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron’s article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their options, 90+ days delinquent credit card debt rising, and comparing post-election rallies around close Presidential elections. MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Post election rallies around close Presidential elections 10-Year Treasury Yields acting different than normal post Fed cutting action US 2-year Treasury yield vs the Fed Funds target rate Probability of interest rate cut in December update US Inflation progress stalled in October? US Dollar Index pushing through resistance When the US Dollar strength matters and when it doesn’t Comparing where we are today with inflation against the 1970s chart S&P 500 Index risk premium (forward earnings yield minus 10-year treasury yield) Percentage of US credit card debt that is delinquent reaches highest level in over a decade S&P 500 Index forward EPS estimates Barron’s article evaluating MicroStrategy’s premium to its Bitcoin holdings Mentioned in this Episode Barron’s Article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy valuation Explanation of US sugar tariffs and the history of behind them Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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S&P 500 6000 | Bitcoin Strategic Reserve? | Why Bond Yields May Go Higher | Fed Rate Cuts Near All-Time Highs Bullish?
11/11/2024
S&P 500 6000 | Bitcoin Strategic Reserve? | Why Bond Yields May Go Higher | Fed Rate Cuts Near All-Time Highs Bullish?
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli decide who got the S&P 500 Index 6000 prediction right. Then they talk about Bitcoin running to new highs and some theories about a Bitcoin strategic reserve now that Trump is the President Elect. Later, they review some data pointing to bond yields remaining high (or going higher). Then discussing how investment banks S&P targets rise to follow the markets. All that plus a listener email. Small Cap fund flows into IWM TLT ETF bond flows Bitcoin makes new highs and ETF fund flows surge Hussman 12-year forward estimate nonfinancial market cap divided by gross value-added Goldman Sachs 12-month S&P Price Target Markets 12-month forward performance after Fed cuts rates near all-time highs 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Nominal GDP Growth Trump to stockpile Bitcoin in a strategic reserve? VIX and implied volatility collapse post-election Jay and Derek discuss who correctly called S&P 500 6000 by the end of the year Mentioned in this Episode Trump – Stockpile Bitcoin in strategic reserve Podcast where Jay and Derek predicted S&P 500 6000 back in mid June Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Unemployment Bad News? | Markets After Elections | Earnings Beats | Trump vs. Harris Election Analysis
11/03/2024
Unemployment Bad News? | Markets After Elections | Earnings Beats | Trump vs. Harris Election Analysis
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported. Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they look at next week’s prediction for interest rates for the Fed Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the 10-year treasury and talk about what’s happened since the first Fed cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market concentration of the top 10 stocks, seasonality in the S&P 500 index, and looking at earnings so far including whether companies are beating and what sectors are doing well. Then stay tuned as Spencer Wright joins Derek to review the data in the upcoming election. Are the polls accurate? How is Trump performing vs Biden and Clinton in previous races? The electoral college states that matter and even a potential election tie. Unemployment disappoints? How the predictions all missed except for Bloomberg survey that was closer Analyzing the jobs data and is it the bad news is good news again scenario ahead of the Fed? Earnings beats and evaluating the EPS and revenue by sector S&P 500 Index seasonality post elections and non-election years Housing starts minus completions and what it means if anything The stock markets current bullish streak Top 10 S&P stocks now 37% of the index US Federal government spending vs. tax revenue 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury go higher since 1st Fed cut What are fed funds futures predicting for rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting? Is bad weather to blame for low respondent rates to employment surveys? Trump vs. Harris based on the latest polling data Will the polls be accurate this time (correcting polling errors?) Predictions on who will win Comparing Trump’s numbers this year 2024 vs 2020 and 2016 in the swing states Mentioned in this Episode 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map https://www.270towin.com/ BLS October Employment release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage US Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US US Market Returns by Political Party Historical https://zegafinancial.com/blog/should-investors-be- worried-about-the-election-and-what-to-do-if-you-are Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek [email protected]
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Goldman Makes News With 3% S&P Target | Markets Too Concentrated? | What If Mortgage Rates Don’t Fall? | Gold Returns Examined
10/27/2024
Goldman Makes News With 3% S&P Target | Markets Too Concentrated? | What If Mortgage Rates Don’t Fall? | Gold Returns Examined
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple’s options volatility pre-earnings. Goldman Sachs base case of 3% annualized return next 10 years Vanguard’s June 2024 10 year forward annualized return estimates How market movement is attributed to EPS, Sales, Dividends, Margins, and Buybacks Historical 10-year constituent turnover for S&P 500 Index Touching on Meb Faber’s observation of both Gold and the S&P 500 above 25% return for year Small caps lowest bull market return covering 13 bull markets since 1949 Apple earnings and the option volatility Cost of the Apple straddle a week before earnings Uber’s implied volatility pre-earnings week Spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year treasury yield What if mortgage rates and long bonds go up not down? MBS bonds (mortgage backed securities) nuances Mentioned in this Episode Goldman Sachs forward baseline 3% annual return forecast next 10 years full report Vanguard June 30th 2024 10 year forward returns forecast Mortgage Spreads and The Yield Curve Economic Brief Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek 296
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Small Caps Get Their Day | Buffett’s Apple Blunder? | Bull Market Length | Nvidia Cisco Comparison | Netflix Options Volatility
10/21/2024
Small Caps Get Their Day | Buffett’s Apple Blunder? | Bull Market Length | Nvidia Cisco Comparison | Netflix Options Volatility
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are discussing what segments of the market are now working on in October plus whether new auto loan delinquencies are something to worry about. Then, reacting to Barron’s headline saying Warren Buffett selling Apple shares may have resulted in leaving $25 billion on the table. Later, they get into whether the comparisons of Nvidia today to Cisco in the late nineties is a fare comparison and if Nvidia is as overvalued as Cisco was in retrospect. Finally, they delve into the options action on Netflix and earnings, S&P 500 Index changes, and whether this bull market is young or really young depending on how you gauge the start of one. Russell 2000 Index vs S&P 500 Index vs Nasdaq 100 Index performance in October Auto Loan Serious Delinquent by 90 days move up to 2011 highs The age of the bull market and length of previous bull markets When do bull markets begin? CSCO Cisco Systems vs NVDA Nvidia comparisons Forward PE ratio of Nvidia today vs CSCO in 1999 and 2000 Net profit margins comparing NVDA today to CSCO in late nineties early 2000’s Barron’s article saying Berkshire left $25 billion on the table by selling Apple shares Amentum AMTM joins the S&P 500 Index while BBWI Bath & Body Works exits Netflix option volatility at earnings Would the long or short straddle have worked after earnings on Netflix? Mentioned in this Episode Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities Guggenheim info on Historical cycle trend periods Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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