Broken Pie Chart

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

US Dollar Purchasing Power | Yield Curve Recession Signal Failure? | Worst Treasury Returns in 100 Years | Midterm Election Year Sweet Spot for Equities? | Nike $NKE Chart Looks Like a Popped Bubble Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling returns in 100 years. Charles Schwab data shows Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% year-to-date as of October 1, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary lag. Are we entering the best part of the presidential cycle? Carson Investment Research says Q4 of the midterm year and Q1 of the pre-election year have historically been among the strongest quarters. Plus, Goldman Sachs on the S&P 500 forward P/E falling back to its 10-year average showing equities are cheaper? Finally, looking at the road up and back on $NKE Nike shares where the chart almost looks like a bubble that has burst. All this and more this week. Charlie Bilello: S&P 500 real total return of 863.7% over the last 30 years US consumer dollar purchasing power down 52.99% over the same period Bilello: Inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) and recessions since 1962 Average lead time of 24 months from first inversion to recession BofA: Worst 10-year rolling Treasury returns in the past 100 years Schwab: Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% YTD vs. the S&P 500 up 12% Utilities down 7% and Consumer Discretionary down 6% year-to-date Carson: Midterm year Q4 has been higher 84.2% of the time since 1950 Pre-election year Q1 averages +7.4% returns and has been higher 94.7% of the time Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 forward P/E has declined to its 10-year average Aggregate vs. median stock valuations: where is the value? Nike $NKE at $33.37: what happened to the swoosh? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek /episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/43183378

SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings 09/30/2026

SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to dig into a market that looks healthy on the surface but tells a very different story underneath. S&P 500 breadth, measured by the gap between the index and its median stock relative to 52-week highs, just hit its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, according to a Marlin Capital chart based on Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research data. Meanwhile, as Don Durrett pointed out on Twitter, 59% of S&P 500 Index constituents are already more than 20% below their all-time highs, and 17% are down more than 50%. Is this a warning sign for the market, or can a handful of leaders keep carrying the index higher? Oh, and checking in on implied volatility for Micron $MU and earnings. All this and more this week, including a look back at 1999-2000 and what concentration risk means for investors. Marlin Capital/Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 breadth lowest since Dot-Com Bubble The gap between the index and the median stock explained 82% of S&P 500 constituents are more than 10% below all-time highs Don Durrett: 59% of S&P 500 stocks are already in a structural bear market 41% are down more than 30% and 26% more than 40% from their highs 17% of constituents are more than 50% below their all-time highs The generals are leading while the soldiers fall behind Comparing today's narrow breadth to the 1999-2000 bubble Is narrow leadership a warning sign or just a concentrated bull market? Implied volatility of Micron $MU $SPCX SpaceX Starship 14 reaches orbit successfully but stock goes lower US Dollar Index is about to become a problem? Us 30 Year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury yield Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek /episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/43094223

Semis & Hyperscalers Rocking | AAII Surveys Bearish | Will Fed Cause Yield Curve Inversion? | MLB Baseball ETFs 09/23/2026

Fed Big Mistake? | AI Companies Regulatory Capture? | Is the Market Getting Cheaper? | Markets and Midterms 09/14/2026

Post Labor Day Market Stats | Growth vs Value Ratio at Key Level | Fed Interest Rate Probabilities | Oracle Earnings Options Implied Move | S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Ratio 09/09/2026

Post Labor Day Market Stats | Growth vs Value Ratio at Key Level | Fed Interest Rate Probabilities | Oracle Earnings Options Implied Move | S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Ratio Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week. S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going back to 1945. The index fell 0.45% the day after Labor Day this year. The day after Labor Day averaged -0.81% in the last 10 years and was positive only 10% of the time. Since 1945 the day after averages -0.14% and is positive 49% of the time. The rest of September after Labor Day averages -0.89% since 1945. The rest of the year after Labor Day averages 3.23% and is positive 73% of the time. Jeff Weniger's chart of S&P 500 Growth relative to S&P 500 Value back to 1980. Growth versus value failed again at the five-decade resistance line it last touched in 2021. What followed the 2021 touch when the market rotated hard into value in 2022. Oracle options into earnings and what implied volatility said about the expected move. Front week Oracle implied vols north of 120 with the stock near $162.52. Oracle trading around 18.4 times forward earnings on estimates of $8.82 a share. S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of $381.68 a share for a forward P/E near 20.2 times. Next year's S&P 500 estimate of $450.43 implies another 18% earnings growth. Nasdaq 100 forward earnings estimate of $1,288 a share at roughly 22.9 times. Why index multiples look different once you line them up against expected earnings growth. Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek /episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/42842090

September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion 09/01/2026

September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week. S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back to 1928. September is historically the weakest month, but midterm years have their own pattern. Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into September. What being on high alert actually means for someone already invested and hedged. Federal receipts and federal net outlays as a percent of GDP going back to the 1930s. Outlays keep running above receipts, and that gap is where the deficit comes from. The top individual income tax bracket has fallen from over 90% since the 1940s. Higher top tax rates have not reliably produced higher receipts as a share of GDP. Schwab data ranks 2026 performance and index contribution across the mega caps. Micron leads the group up 226.8% while Tesla is down 22.5% as of August 28, 2026. Apple at 17.6%, Nvidia at 16.6%, and Amazon at 15.4% beat the Nasdaq's 13.6%. Meta is down 12.4% and sits near the bottom on contribution to the S&P 500. Nvidia trades near 17 times forward earnings on estimates of $12.83 a share. Alphabet sits near 19 times forward earnings versus Apple at over 33 times. Tesla's forward P/E is above 180 while Costco holds near 41 times. The S&P 500 near 7,689 on forward earnings estimates of about $394 a share. That works out to roughly 19.4 times forward earnings for the index. SpaceX vs Tesla forward price to earnings ratio Are index level multiples reasonable when the leadership is this uneven? Mentioned in this Episode Santoli: Why investors should be on high alert heading into September Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek /episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/42684250

Big Oil's Raining Free Cash Flow | Gold Near Getting Flows | Where Did Homebuyers Go? | Midterm Year Seasonality | Nvidia Earnings 08/26/2026

Big Oil's Raining Free Cash Flow | Gold Near Getting Flows | Where Did Homebuyers Go? | Midterm Year Seasonality | Nvidia Earnings Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import drag on GDP, midterm year seasonality, and a housing market where buyers have gone missing while prices sit at records. All that and more this week. The top five international oil majors generated $70 billion in free cash flow last quarter. That tops the previous high set during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Tobias Carlisle credits cost discipline, portfolio high-grading, and capital restraint. Is record oil profitability without a price spike a sign of structural improvement? Luke Kawa flags the Citi global economic surprise index at 41.6, highest since April 2022. Weakness in long-term government bonds around the world may be a good news story. Term premiums in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have shifted since Warsh's first FOMC. Gold has climbed from the low $3,000s an ounce last August to near $5,500 today. Goldman Sachs data shows spot gold ETF flows turning positive again alongside performance. Liz Ann Sonders shows the AI capex boom driving imports while exports stay muted. Net exports remain a drag on real GDP even as fixed investment keeps growing. Seasonality shows the S&P 500's typical midterm election year path over 99 years. Schwab data breaks down which sectors have stocks at four-week and 52-week highs. The Daily Shot shows the housing buyer and seller mismatch has flipped since 2021-2022. The number of home buyers has fallen to a record low, widening the gap with sellers. Case-Shiller's national home price index hit a record 335.10 as of May 31, 2026. Charlie Bilello notes the median monthly mortgage payment went from $862 to $2,240. Mortgage rates went from 3.4% to 6.7% and median prices from $243k to $434k in a decade. Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek /episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/42567710

Mag 7 Valuation Gap Closes | Netscape Redux? | 32 NHL Team ETFs? | VIX Seasonality Setup 08/18/2026

Bad News is Good News? | SpaceX Shares Unlock Angle | Fed Hikes Off the Table? | There Aren’t 10% Pre-Tax US Treasuries 08/09/2026

Bad News is Good News? | SpaceX Shares Unlock Angle | Fed Hikes Off the Table? | There Aren’t 10% Pre-Tax US Treasuries Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor market, yet overnight index swaps still price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 — so are hikes really off the table? Plus, the US Dollar Index breakout, why there aren't 10% pre-tax US Treasuries, and how the SpaceX share unlock could lift its Nasdaq-100 weight from roughly 1.3% to 3.1%. Nonfarm payrolls added just 23,000 jobs in July versus 80,000 expected. The prior two months were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Private payrolls rose 30,000 and manufacturing added 5,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already hurting the labor market and hikes aren't justified. Labor force participation fell to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021 per Charlie Bilello. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year over year versus 3.5% expected. Overnight index swaps now price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 with the implied rate near 4.05%. Why is the market pricing hikes rather than cuts after a soft jobs number? J.C. Parets asks whether the US Dollar Index breakout is a big deal. What a stronger dollar means for multinationals and commodities. Eric Balchunas notes the Middle East oil shipping futures ETF is up 1,294% year to date Drewry's WCI container freight benchmark sits at 4,297.46 per 40-foot box What rising freight and shipping rates signal about goods inflation ahead. How Nasdaq-100 weighs an adjusted market cap: SpaceX at roughly $1.5 trillion with about 5% free float SpaceX has a 15% factor, or about $225 billion effective cap and roughly a 1.3% index weight. If free float jumps to 12%, the factor jumps to 36%, based on today’s price would raise weight to 3.1% Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking /episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/42394180

Warsh’s Fed Lets the Market Decide | SpaceX Earnings | Apple Sells Off | Payout Ratios Falling for Mag 7 | Earnings Surprises and Semiconductor Volatility 08/02/2026

Warsh’s Fed Lets the Market Decide | SpaceX Earnings | Apple Sells Off | Payout Ratios Falling for Mag 7 | Earnings Surprises and Semiconductor Volatility Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about the market tape defined by two things happening at once: a violent volatility shock concentrated in semiconductors, and an earnings season that is quietly the strongest in years. The Leopold liquidation drove SOX single-stock volatility to 75% much higher than the S&P 500 Index in general. With 305 of 498 S&P 500 companies reported for Q2 2026, sales are beating by 3.1% and earnings by 31.1%, and forward EPS is modeled to climb from trailing 294 per share to 374 per share, pulling the index P/E from 25.4 trailing to roughly 19.9 forward PE. Looking ahead to SpaceX earnings and discussing Kevin Warsh telling reporters let the market decide! Leopold liquidation pushed SOX single-stock volatility to 75%, only the third time ever per Warren Pies. The prior two 75% readings, March 2020 and April 2025, led to big gains per Warren Pies Semis inside the S&P 500 carry a median 30-day implied vol of 87.5% versus 36.1% for the index. Q2 2026 earnings season: 305 of 498 S&P 500 names have been reported. Aggregate earnings are beating by 31.1% and sales by 3.1%, the biggest surprise in recent quarters. Consumer Discretionary (+121%) and Communications (+99%) led the earnings surprises. Utilities were the only sector with a negative sales surprise, at -1.5%. S&P 500 forward EPS is estimated at 374 versus trailing 294 actual, up 27%. That earnings growth takes the index P/E from 25.4, trailing down to 19.9 on forward estimates. Apple traded down about $26 on the day to roughly $307.55. Apple's combination of falling price and slightly lowered guidance still compressing its P/E to 32.5. Jurian Timmer at Fidelity notes that the Mag 7 payout ratio has been falling and now sits at +17%. What is the payout ratio and how do buybacks plus dividends account for percent of EPS paid out Week 32 earnings include Palantir, Toyota, Caterpillar, AMD, Disney, Uber, Shopify and Airbnb. Also reporting: Lilly, Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, Pfizer, CVS, DoorDash, Lyft and Take-Two. Did Apple get cheaper? Is Apple sandbagging to help the new CEO? (a sarcastic take) Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart /episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/42290350