Broken Pie Chart
The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.
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Nick Magguilli NY Times Best Selling Author on the Wealth Ladder | The Fed Cuts So Now What?
09/22/2025
Nick Magguilli NY Times Best Selling Author on the Wealth Ladder | The Fed Cuts So Now What?
Nick Magguillia Interview – NY Times Bestselling Author on his new book The Wealth Ladder is our special guest this week. This wound up being a great conversation about personal finance, wealth, and looking at data differently. Later, Derek comes back on to discuss the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates, the historical spread between the 30-Yr Mortgage and the 10YR Treasury. Nick Magguilli Interview on The Wealth Ladder What are the different levels of wealth? What does each level of wealth mean for people? Does money buy happiness? Mobility across the wealth ladders Looking at data differently Checking in on Nicks 2020 blog post on future 10 yr returns vs prior 20 Yrs The Fed cut so now what? 30 Year Mortgager rates vs the 10 Year Treasury Yield Historical spread between the 30 YR Mortgage Rate and the 10YR Us Treasury Mentioned in this Episode Nick Magguilli The Wealth Ladder Nick Magguilli Just Keep Buying Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Would A Fed Rate Cut Matter? | Employment Revised Lower | Gold Reaches ATH | Inflation Expectations Drop | Largest 1-Day Single Stock Moves Higher
09/16/2025
Would A Fed Rate Cut Matter? | Employment Revised Lower | Gold Reaches ATH | Inflation Expectations Drop | Largest 1-Day Single Stock Moves Higher
Derek Moore, Shane Skinner, and Mike Snyder team up to discuss whether a Fed rate cut matters as much as people seem to think, especially given that most people have mortgages locked in lower. Plus, reviewing the revised lower employment numbers and whether the economy is truly slowing. ORCL moved 40% higher at one point in a single day, but what other large companies have moved that much? Later, based on U-Mich surveys, inflation expectations are dropping while Gold reaches a new all-time high even on an inflation adjusted basis. All this and more this week. ORCL single day move vs Volkswagen in 2008 University of Michigan inflation expectations survey Employment revisions Gold price vs Gold Mining Stocks Fed rate cuts are coming but what does it mean for housing? Bond PE ratios Market expectations for Fed Funds dip below 3% by end of 2026 Distribution of outstanding 30-year conventional mortgage borrower interest rates Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Recession Indicators | Gold Oil Ratio | Fed Cut Probabilities Jump | Net Profit Margins By Decade
09/07/2025
Recession Indicators | Gold Oil Ratio | Fed Cut Probabilities Jump | Net Profit Margins By Decade
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner talk about the rally in gold no one seems to care about and the gold oil ratio. Then, they go through the indicators used to determine recessions and note they don’t seem that bad, although nonfarm payrolls did disappoint. But private sector jobs are growing while the government jobs are falling, so are fed cuts greenlit? Later, looking at S&P 500 net income margin percentage average per decade. Yup, they’ve been rising each decade. Finally, looking at forward PE ratios against forward EPS and how some stocks like Broadcom got cheaper after last earnings. All this and much more! Next companies that are likely to join the S&P 500 Index Employment rate and non-farm payrolls Government vs Private Sector jobs Gold Oil ratio and what it means at these levels The rally in Gold over the past couple of years Central Banks buying gold AVGO Broadcom earnings and forward PE ratio and forward EPS estimates Recession indicators S&P 500 Index net profit margins by decade (they are rising) Why margins may not revert to the mean Fed rate cut probabilities jump after employment report Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Is Nvidia Getting Cheaper? | No Inflation | New Entrants to S&P 500 Index | Flows Into Ethereum ETFs
08/31/2025
Is Nvidia Getting Cheaper? | No Inflation | New Entrants to S&P 500 Index | Flows Into Ethereum ETFs
Derek Moore and Michael Snyder touch on Nvidia post earnings to see whether the options market go the expected moves right or not. Then, they explore Interactive Brokers replacing Walgreens in the S&P 500 Index and how new entrants are often a big, overlooked aspect of S&P earnings growth. Then, they once again check in on the Fed and PCE Inflation which while not dropping isn’t rising either. Later they look at how the Atlanta GDP Now model shows increasing growth while personal income is rising as well, so what could go wrong? Nvida post earnings options moves Why Nvidia long straddles before earnings didn’t’ work Personal Income is rising PCE Personal Consumption Index is flat Cumulative flows into Ethereum are driving price New entrants and drops from the S&P 500 Index Interactive Brokers replaces Walgreens in S&P 500 Index Vanguard VXF ETF Extended Markets Gives Potential S&P 500 Candidates The Fed and the interest rate probabilities for a cut through end of 2025 Atlanta Fed GDP Now Nvidia Forward PE Ratio vs Forward EPS Estimates vs Price Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Fed Gets Dovish? | Post Election Year Cycle | Option Vanna Rally? | In the End its Earnings
08/25/2025
Fed Gets Dovish? | Post Election Year Cycle | Option Vanna Rally? | In the End its Earnings
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner geek out on the second derivative option Greek Vanna to understand how implied volatility changes cause buying or selling in markets. Plus, does Powell and the Fed not care about inflation anymore? Later, examine the post-election year seasonality to see if we are entering a historically weak period. All that plus what happens historically in markets when the fed has long period between rate cuts, interest rate probabilities, how to understand why stocks go up or down (return attribution). What is Options Vanna? Why do implied volatility changes cause buying and selling in markets? How do option market makers hedge or offset option orders? Understanding how price to forward earnings (the multiple) and EPS estimates drive price What type of environment are we in currently? The Fed’s Jerome Powell Jackson Hole speech hints at dropping 2% inflation target Did the Federal Reserve just give the ‘all clear’ for a rate cut turning dovish? Why earnings estimates drive price in the S&P 500 index How implied volatility changes affect an option’s Delta How VIX Spikes and subsequent drop causes additional buyers to come in What historically happens August to October from a post-election seasonal standpoint? Data shows that when the Fed has time between interest rate cuts historically markets do well Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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MSTR vs Bitcoin (IBIT) | VIX Seasonality | No Tarif Inflation Yet | Stock Buyback Seasonality | Confusing PPI Report
08/18/2025
MSTR vs Bitcoin (IBIT) | VIX Seasonality | No Tarif Inflation Yet | Stock Buyback Seasonality | Confusing PPI Report
Derek Moore reviews the relative valuation between MSTR MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT, plus deconstructing the recent PPI report which may not be the inflation problem many people initially thought. The VIX Index has seasonal patterns, and we are going into the season for increased historical VIX levels, but will history repeat itself? What about corporate buybacks seasonality and what it means for the stock market over the next two months. Derek also reviews how railroad stocks were once a way bigger percentage of the US stock market than the top stocks in the index are today. It might surprise you just how much higher! Shipping container rates, mentions of stagflation, and some critiques of the Fed’s data dependence. US Corporate Buybacks at Records Buyback seasonality Seasonality of VIX Index prices Mentions of Stagflation PPI vs CPI numbers Comparing CPI month over month (MoM%) when the Fed last cut vs now Tariffs are not showing up yet in the inflation data Import Prices down -0.2% month over month US Export prices 2.2% month over month Spot shipping container rates WCI Shanghai to Los Angeles Container Freight Benchmark Index Mentioned in this Episode Trade PPI explanation from Richmond Fed Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Comparing Bull Markets | Employment Revisions | Nvidia Options Implied Moves | Wall Street Targets Get Bullish
08/10/2025
Comparing Bull Markets | Employment Revisions | Nvidia Options Implied Moves | Wall Street Targets Get Bullish
Derek Moore and Mike Snyder compare the 2009 bull market to today plus Wall Street year end estimates get bullish again. Plus, What Nvidia’s options market is forecasting for implied moves around earnings. Later, explaining (or trying to) the revisions to the employment data, historical perspective, and the low response rates. All that and more as markets try to make another all-time high. 2009 Bull Market vs 2022 Non-Farm Payroll Downward Revisions Average Differential Between Final Estimate and Initial Estimates 30 Consecutive Downward Revisions Market Cycles and Market Breadth Wall Street Forecasts Revert to Pre Tariff Turmoil Levels CPI Rent New Tenants collapses so what does it mean? Nvidia (NVDA) option implied volatility implied move through earning Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Can You Really Retire on High Dividend Paying ETFs? |What Investors Get Wrong on Premium Selling High Dividend ETFs and Income | Are Assets More Correlated Today? | Index Weighting Concentration Over the Years
08/04/2025
Can You Really Retire on High Dividend Paying ETFs? |What Investors Get Wrong on Premium Selling High Dividend ETFs and Income | Are Assets More Correlated Today? | Index Weighting Concentration Over the Years
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner get into how investors are looking at high dividend ETFs the wrong way as total return vs distribution yield is what matters. Plus, how to think about how much in dividends you can take out knowing its total return that drives the probability of assets lasting during distribution phase. Later, they look at correlations between different asset classes over the years and ask whether today they are way more positively correlated. They then delve into concentration today in stock indexes vs prior periods. You might be surprised by who were the highest waited stocks throughout the years. Dividend Yield vs Total Return Implied volatility in the options for Opendoor Sequence of return risks during withdrawals Tradeoff between premium selling and upside capture Ordinary income vs capital gains and losses Can investors really live off dividends? Understanding the risks of concentration in asset deployment Cross asset correlation Comparing correlations over different periods in history Have stocks and bonds become more correlated? Nvidia and Microsoft are the highest 2 stock concentration in the Dow Jones Index? Surprising companies that have been the highest weighted in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Indexes Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Opendoor Meme Stock Mania Gamma Squeeze? | Bull Market Has Legs? | FOMC Fed Dissents Coming? | Options and Mag 7 Earnings
07/27/2025
Opendoor Meme Stock Mania Gamma Squeeze? | Bull Market Has Legs? | FOMC Fed Dissents Coming? | Options and Mag 7 Earnings
Derek Moore and Mike Snyder get into why anyone was short Opendoor and how the options market is flashing crazy implied volatility. Plus, how volatility and price movement may cause market makers to buy shares known as a “Gamma Squeeze”. Later, they get into how the signs are there that this bull market might have more to run (or not). Oh, and let’s not forget to look at what the options market is forecasting for expected moves on Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple earnings next week. All this plus some recommendations this week. Short Interest on Opendoor Implied volatility in the options for Opendoor What is a gamma squeeze? Why market makers might be forced to buy more shares to hedge when people buy calls How implied volatility, price, and time impact how many shares market makers buy Looking at a monthly breakdown of when all-time highs are reached by month Analysts are forecasting the most dissents by FOMC members at a meeting in 30 years Looking at market breadth widening Comparing the RSP equal weight ETF vs the SPY ETF performance lately Median single family home prices are holding up Why Are Stocks Up? Nobody Knows WSJ article Median S&P 500 Index Performance after 60 days above the 20-day moving average Mentioned in this Episode WSJ Article Why are Stocks Up? Nobody Knows Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Powell vs. Trump | Crazy Inflation Survey Expectations | US Stocks Overseas Revenue | Options and Tesla Earnings
07/21/2025
Powell vs. Trump | Crazy Inflation Survey Expectations | US Stocks Overseas Revenue | Options and Tesla Earnings
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner give their thoughts on the Fed, interest rates, and the Trump vs. Powell situation. Plus, looking at new data on how much revenue US companies derive from overseas markets. Later the talk about what many get wrong about where their stock market returns come from year over year plus those crazy surveys and inflation expectations. Finally, they talk about what the option market is expecting around TSLA earnings How long are Fed Governor terms? How long is the term of the Federal Reserve Chair? Where returns come from changes in revenues, margins, EPS, buybacks, and dividends Q2 Earnings Season kicks off Will earnings beat by more than people expect? What percentage do S&P 500 Index companies revenues come from overseas? What about the Mag 7 percentage of foreign earnings? U of Michigan inflation survey still shows crazy disparity between democrats and republicans Trump vs Powell debate Fed interest rate probabilities Will the Fed lower interest rates in July? What the options market says about the TSLA earnings move this week TSLA implied volatility Mentioned in this Episode Semper Augustus 2021 letter talking about where returns come from over longer periods Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Does the Debt Matter? | Market Myth Busting | International Stocks Overbought? | Tax Rates Don’t Matter?
07/13/2025
Does the Debt Matter? | Market Myth Busting | International Stocks Overbought? | Tax Rates Don’t Matter?
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner examine some market myths. Does a weak dollar mean problems for the stock market? Looking at tax rates and the effect on government spending vs revenue. Plus, some international market ETFs are up huge so can they continue? Later, looking at the national debt and when it might matter. All that and more market musings. Best performing international markets Is the US Dollar weakness really that bad compared to other periods Government revenue as a percentage of GDP Government expenditure as a percentage of GDP Do higher tax rates really make a difference when it comes to revenues and debt? Looking at options market pricing of JP Morgan options ahead of earnings Implied volatility of options prior to earnings estimated expected one standard deviation moves How a weak dollar can raise earnings from multinational companies Comparing the change in the US Dollar to the change in the S&P 500 Index Are the US Dollar and the S&P 500 Index correlated? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Fallacy of Dollar Losing 90% of Value | Buy at All-Time Highs? | Gold Is More Volatile Than You Think | Fastest New High Post Bear Market Ever
07/07/2025
Fallacy of Dollar Losing 90% of Value | Buy at All-Time Highs? | Gold Is More Volatile Than You Think | Fastest New High Post Bear Market Ever
Derek Moore looks at some data showing that buying markets at all-time highs isn’t so bad. Plus, after years of listening to how the dollar has lost 90% of its value or more, let’s set the record straight about whether this is a fallacy or truth. You might be surprised by the data. Then, examine the volatility and drawdowns of gold prices. Yeah, they drawdown more than you’d have thought. Oh, and going long the F1 Movie! Comparing drawdowns in Gold, S&P 500 index, and 5-Year Treasuries over the last 18 years How to calculate the loss in purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar Inflation adjusted returns across 3-Month Treasury Bills, S&P 500 Index, and Gold Comparing putting your money under a mattress vs storing it in 3-month T-bills Why the dollar has lost almost all its value over time is a lazy statement Stock market returns after it reaches an all-time high Time to recover in the S&P 500 Index post a decline of -19% or more Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Hated All-Time Highs | Semis Gone Wild | Does Apple Buy Perplexity? | Inflation Adjusted Oil Prices
06/29/2025
Hated All-Time Highs | Semis Gone Wild | Does Apple Buy Perplexity? | Inflation Adjusted Oil Prices
Derek Moore is joined again by Spencer Wright from Halbert Wealth to talk about the market breaking out to another all-time high and how hated a rally this is. Then they discuss semiconductors finally catching up to their only July 2024 highs. Then they talk about Chamath Palihapitiya’s criticism of Apple and a Bloomberg report that Apple had talks about buying AI company Perplexity. Finally, some odds and ends like whether oil prices on an inflation adjusted basis are lower than in the 1970s and whatever else we covered. Back to all-time highs Semiconductors finally join the party Chamath Palihapitiya’s criticism of Apple Bloomberg report that Apple had talks about buying AI company Perplexity Crude oil inflation adjusted price Is this still a hated rally by the street? Odds and ends Mentioned in this Episode Bloomberg article talking about Apple potentially buying Perplexity Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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60/40 Portfolio vs Hedged Equity | CNBC Markets in Turmoil | Tired Fed Interest Rate Debate
06/23/2025
60/40 Portfolio vs Hedged Equity | CNBC Markets in Turmoil | Tired Fed Interest Rate Debate
Derek Moore looks to answer the question on whether Hedged Equity or the 60/40 stock bond portfolio is a better fit given where we are and why. How bonds had a 40-year bull market but is it likely that is possible again given where we are? Later, looking at market returns after CNBC does their ‘markets in turmoil’ specials when markets are selling off. Plus, why debate about should or shouldn’t the Fed lower rates is getting tired and does it even matter outside of housing? Debate around Fed lowering rates Impact of Fed rates on real estate housing market Spread between 10-year treasury yield and the 30-year treasury bond yield 60/40 portfolio vs hedged equity portfolio Dynamics of falling and rising interest rate environments Short interest on the high side on the total US market Contrarian indicators Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Geopolitical Risk | Most Volatile Decade? |Housing Is Cheap? | Gold & Oil Get a Bid
06/16/2025
Geopolitical Risk | Most Volatile Decade? |Housing Is Cheap? | Gold & Oil Get a Bid
Derek Moore examines markets around historical geopolitical events. Plus, the 2020s are trending to be the most volatile decade and by the way we are up over 80% so far. Then, looking at the pop in gold and crude oil this week and perspective on where those markets are. Plus, a contrarian take that housing is actually cheap. Later talking semiconductor stocks, the US dollar index, inflation, and useless sentiment surveys. 1-year forward inflation expectations U-Michigan survey Sentiment gets better Gold breaks out of its most recent range while crude oil breaks back into its prior range US Dollar bearishness is the prevailing opinion so is it too crowded of a view? Semiconductors 40%+ off the bottom but still sideways since their all-time high in July 2024 Markets 1-year later after geopolitical events Will the 2020s have the most 1% +/- days ever? S&P 500 Index earnings expectations forward 12 months update Price per square foot US Housing National average Is housing cheap when considering adjustments for inflation and average square footage? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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6000 Baby! | Market Breadth Narrows| Rolling 10 Year S&P 500 Returns | Tesla Elon vs. Trump
06/09/2025
6000 Baby! | Market Breadth Narrows| Rolling 10 Year S&P 500 Returns | Tesla Elon vs. Trump
Derek Moore looks at how companies in the S&P 500 are not correlated while the equal weighted S&P 500 is correlated closely with the weighted S&P 500 Index. Later, looking at historical rolling 10-year returns in the market and why it’s rare to have periods that are negative over longer time frames. Plus, touching on single stock risk a la Elon Musk, Tesla, and Trump public news hurts Tesla shares. Oh, and we are only 2.4% below the old all-time high. S&P 500 Index now only 2.4% from a new all-time high Market Breadth definition and how its narrowing currently Mag 7 performance dispersion Elon vs Trump Rolling 10-year returns in the S&P 500 Index Single stock risk vs diversified indexes Mentioned in this Episode ZEGA Concentrated stock and white paper on Concentrated Stock Hedging Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Wrong on Inflation | NVDA Earnings | PCE Inflation vs CPI Inflation | Sell in May Didn’t Work
06/02/2025
Wrong on Inflation | NVDA Earnings | PCE Inflation vs CPI Inflation | Sell in May Didn’t Work
Derek Moore explains how what sometimes seems obvious isn’t what happens as we can see with inflation numbers that continue to move lower despite consumer sentiment surveys expecting 6.6% inflation in the next year. Plus, NVDA had its earnings and the stock’ forward PE is lower due to the next 12-month analyst estimates being near all-time highs. Plus, sell in May would have been a mistake as markets recovered and are now back to within several percent of all-time highs. PCE Inflation vs CPI Inflation NVDA forward PE ratio and earnings EPS estimates Calendar Spreads vs Diagonal spreads explained Inflation continues to be lower University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey says 1-year inflation 6.6% Atlanta FED GDP Now EconPi Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Bond Yield Problem? | NVidia Options Implied Volatility | US Dollar Falls | Did 60/40 Save Investors Last 5 Years?
05/25/2025
Bond Yield Problem? | NVidia Options Implied Volatility | US Dollar Falls | Did 60/40 Save Investors Last 5 Years?
Derek Moore talks about seeing stories of exploding 30-year yields but what if they are low compared to historical relationships between the fed funds rate? Then, looking at how correlated the 60/40 portfolio has been over the last 5 years begging the question, did it do anything for investors? Later, looking at NVidia implied volatility ahead of its big earnings release this week to see what the options market is pricing in for a potential one standard deviation move? All this and more this week. S&P 500 Index net profit margins expected next 12 months The US Dollar index breaks below its trendline Nvidia earnings and the options market Forecasting expected 1-standard deviation moves using implied volatility Correlations between the S&P 500 Index and the 60/40 portfolio last 5 years Historical average of the spread between the 30 Year Treasury and the Fed Funds Rate Should the 30-year treasury yield be higher? Japan bond yields normalize reaching highest levels going back to 2007 Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Moodys Downgrades US Debt | Intra Year Drawdowns Are Common | S&P 500 Profit Margins Strong | Consumer Confidence Contrarian Indicator
05/19/2025
Moodys Downgrades US Debt | Intra Year Drawdowns Are Common | S&P 500 Profit Margins Strong | Consumer Confidence Contrarian Indicator
Derek Moore reflects on market reaction to the 2011 US debt downgrade and explains what S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s have for ratings. Plus, are markets poised for more positive returns based on several indicators? The bear case against the markets would be a reduction in profit margins. Later, Derek reviews some data of future 12-month returns when consumer confidence is low as a contrarian indicator. Finally, looking at several current indicators and random musing in markets for clues about the future. All that and more this week. S&P 500 Index net profit margins for Q1 2025 Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are low but is that a good thing? Looking at how often intra year lows on average are -14% but often markets end higher 12-month inflation expectations are now 7.3% highest since 1981 Hard vs soft data Velocity of M2 Money Stock What has been working asset class wise in 2025 YTD 15 biggest rallies since 1950 and subsequent forward total returns Atlanta Fed GDP Now Investment banks starting to reduce recession probabilities Attribution of earnings EPS growth DeGraaf and Zweig Breadth Thrusts occurring within 1 month of each other Explaining the difference between Moodys, Fitch, and S&P bond ratings Moodys downgrades US Debt Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500 Index Turnover Matters | Fed Does Nothing, but Should They Have? | Inflation Nowcast
05/12/2025
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500 Index Turnover Matters | Fed Does Nothing, but Should They Have? | Inflation Nowcast
Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wrong or not to keep rates steady. MSTR MicroStrategy potential to join the S&P 500 Index? Requirements for a company to enter the S&P 500 Index Why companies entering and leaving helps the long-term growth of the index Where to look for emerging candidates to enter the S&P 500 Index Vanguard Extended Market ETF Should the Fed have lowered rates? What is the Trueflation index? CPI inflation for April released this week Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Trueflation vs CPI Inflation Mentioned in this Episode Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Sam Ro article on S&P 500 Index company turnover Vanguards Extended Market ETF Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later
05/04/2025
Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later
Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk. Components of GDP Net exports calculation When markets have a near bear market how much on average is the market higher 1-year later? What is an almost bear market? Unemployment review after Friday’s release Will the Fed cut rates at the May meeting? Scott Bessent says the 2-year treasury is telling the Fed to cut Comparing various CPI inflation rates in March AAII investors still mega bearish Barrons polls market people who are most bearish in 30 years Is the Barrons cover a contrarian signal? Why the Fed didn’t end inflation in 2022, and their rate increases didn’t do anything Sell in May and go away? Best historical time periods for returns Mentioned in this Episode Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary says the Fed needs to cut Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500 Targets | Apple Earnings Implied Volatility Expected Move |
04/27/2025
Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500 Targets | Apple Earnings Implied Volatility Expected Move |
Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the media talks about ends of eras and more. Apple earnings implied volatility What is the implied volatility expected earnings move for Apple FMS manager survey shows fund managers were max bearish near recent bottom Distance off the low is now +10% after being down -18.90% All that said, the S&P is down -10% off the all-time high Investment banks start downgrading their year end S&P 500 Index targets Bear case for housing due to high mortgage rates Earnings have been good so far but what about the future? Comparing mortgage payments at low vs 7% rates Sentiment and VIX readings near contrarian lows like prior periods Container shipping container rates are down and that is not inflationary Container shipping volume and capacity are all down Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still
04/21/2025
Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still
Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even consider them? Finally, how fund managers were overly long US Equities in December but now after the selloff they are saying they may reduce US equities. A little late no and how even professionals may react, panic, or be influenced by prevailing sentiment. Gold all-time high US Dollar and US Treasuries get correlated with US equities and weren’t the safe havens The airport crowdedness indicator of recessions? Fundamental EPS estimates are down a little but not much so far so what are they waiting for? Big earnings week including Tesla and Google (Alphabet) Fund manager surveys show they were overly long US equities before the selloff Fund manager surveys also show as equities are in drawdown, they are thinking of selling High Yield spreads not showing recession levels of widening currently Typical high yield spread during recessions is 1000 basis points plus How economists tend to crowd together in their predicting recessions VIX Index implied volatility (expected) vs actual volatility (historical) Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow!
04/13/2025
Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow!
Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week. Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility Did the market bottom this week? Comparing volatility in March 2020 to tariff selloff today Context on how much market moved in a day to a normal year Intraday move was literally 2 ½ hours for a market to move 9% Biggest up days cluster around the biggest down days Bond yields surging is a problem Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen gets when tariffs are paused for 90 days The VIX Index wasn’t pricing the crazy daily moves we’ve seen in markets Why investors shouldn’t panic sell Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions
04/05/2025
Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn’t price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren’t high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement? What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and are we at max panic yet plus the continued case for hedging. When do we reach capitulation? The market is cheaper so will people step in and buy? The problem analysts have in making forecasts given the tariff landscape Explaining implied volatility vs historical volatility Why was the VIX higher after the first bad day Thursday Discussing how a VIX closes at 45 is significant Remembering sentiment at different inflection points in the market like 2020, 2015 2000 etc Markets are back to where they were in August when the Yen Carry trade unwound Why investors shouldn’t panic The case for using hedged equity strategies What does a bottom look like? Market is much cheaper on a forward valuation basis What are the economic risks? Unemployment was fine and the economy was adding jobs so what’s the problem? Atlanta Fed GDP Update Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility
03/31/2025
Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility
Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500 Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are? Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high Mentioned in this Episode Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model ECON PI Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots
03/24/2025
Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots
Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months AAII Bull Bear Spreads says way bearish still Fed dot plots Fed Funds Futures rate expectations Multiple Contraction is the reason for the drawdown not a reduction in earnings estimates LEI Leading Economic Indicator Mentioned in this Episode Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator . CME Fed watch Tool Federal Reserve Dot Plots Summary of Economic Projections March 2025 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion | Nvidia Rallies | Dollar Problem Solved? | Fear and Greed Index | Consumer Sentiment Indicator is Worthless
03/16/2025
Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion | Nvidia Rallies | Dollar Problem Solved? | Fear and Greed Index | Consumer Sentiment Indicator is Worthless
Derek Moore is back to break down the wild week including Nvidia rallying when against the bearish tide. How the US Dollar index pulling back might be bullish for earnings. Plus, have we reached max panic and max bearishness setting up for a near term bottom in markets? Later, looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the VIX Inversion and what that means for markets, and why people are now bullish or bearish based on politics. All that and more! Fear and Greed Index Drawdowns vs full year market performance US Dollar index US Trade Weighed Dollar Index University of Michigan Sentiment Indicator Republicans vs Democrats Nvidia was up close to 8% last week Micron earnings through Implied Volatility Readings Long Straddle cost before earnings VIX Futures curve inversion Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails
03/10/2025
Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails
Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they come back but this week we dig into everything markets and provide some historical context and whether there are bullish signs. Peter Lynch on corrections from 1994 Comparing this drawdown to all the others since 2009 Why investors shouldn’t panic Reminding everyone why it’s good to be hedged to ease your mind around corrections What are options markets saying via the implied volatility levels and the Vix Index Comparing 10 Day implied volatility on SPY options vs 90 Day implied volatility The S&P 500 Index forward PE ration vs earnings estimates Nvidia bear market territory despite earnings beats and falling Forward PE ratio Washington DC new unemployment claims in perspective The unemployment rate of 4.1 percent threads the needle 3 Fed Rate cuts now priced in 2025? Value of hedging your portfolio High yield has held up ok so far compared to the equity market Earnings estimates are still higher, but will analysts cut them due to tariffs? Uncertainty of Tariffs Why the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast went negative Balance of trade on exports minus imports due to tariffs gets really wide Trade deficit expands Mentioned in this Episode Peter Lynch 1994 video talking about corrections in markets frequency Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart
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Investors Get Bearish |Nvidia Earnings | Implied Volatility Broadcom | Effective Tariff Increase | Mag 7 Correction
03/03/2025
Investors Get Bearish |Nvidia Earnings | Implied Volatility Broadcom | Effective Tariff Increase | Mag 7 Correction
Derek Moore goes through last week’s pullback and Nvidia’s post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn’t made a new high since December but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down. Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total world stock market ETFs Forward PE levels drop as markets retrace while earnings estimates rise US Effective Tariff Rate impact of various potential tariffs according to Goldman Sachs AAII survey goes full bear but is it justified compared to prior periods? Broadcom earnings and what the implied volatility suggests a 1 standard deviation move is Did the options market get the post earnings Nvidia move correct? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking Contact Derek
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