GameStop Options Activity Prior to Roaring Kitty Reemergence | S&P 500 Makes New High | 90% of the Time No Recession or Stagflation | When Covered Calls Get Called Away Early
Release Date: 05/19/2024
MicroStrategy Market Cap vs Bitcoin | Valuations Getting Frothy ? | Yields vs Fed Cuts | Second Inflation Surge? | US Dollar Problem | Nvidia Options
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron’s article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their...
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S&P 500 6000 | Bitcoin Strategic Reserve? | Why Bond Yields May Go Higher | Fed Rate Cuts Near All-Time Highs Bullish?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli decide who got the S&P 500 Index 6000 prediction right. Then they talk about Bitcoin running to new highs and some theories about a Bitcoin strategic reserve now that Trump is the President Elect. Later, they review some data pointing to bond yields remaining high (or going higher). Then discussing how investment banks S&P targets rise to follow the markets. All that plus a listener email. Small Cap fund flows into IWM TLT ETF bond flows Bitcoin makes new highs and ETF fund flows surge Hussman 12-year forward estimate nonfinancial market cap...
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Unemployment Bad News? | Markets After Elections | Earnings Beats | Trump vs. Harris Election Analysis
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported. Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they look at next week’s prediction for interest rates for the Fed Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the 10-year treasury and talk about what’s happened since the first Fed cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market concentration of the top 10 stocks, seasonality in the S&P 500 index, and looking at earnings...
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Goldman Makes News With 3% S&P Target | Markets Too Concentrated? | What If Mortgage Rates Don’t Fall? | Gold Returns Examined
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple’s options volatility pre-earnings. ...
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Small Caps Get Their Day | Buffett’s Apple Blunder? | Bull Market Length | Nvidia Cisco Comparison | Netflix Options Volatility
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are discussing what segments of the market are now working on in October plus whether new auto loan delinquencies are something to worry about. Then, reacting to Barron’s headline saying Warren Buffett selling Apple shares may have resulted in leaving $25 billion on the table. Later, they get into whether the comparisons of Nvidia today to Cisco in the late nineties is a fare comparison and if Nvidia is as overvalued as Cisco was in retrospect. Finally, they delve into the options action on Netflix and earnings, S&P 500 Index changes, and whether this...
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Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn’t around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX earnings and what the options market is saying plus a few other companies including United...
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VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli ask whether the VIX is too high given markets are at all-time highs and compare today to some previous periods. Then, they delve into the employment report which surprised in a positive way. Was good news good news for once? What this means for probabilities of future rate cuts by the Fed, the port strike that wrapped up, and a look at some individual tickers and markets from a technical analysis standpoint. Resistance, support, wedges and more on this week’s episode. Why is the VIX so high with the market at all-time highs VIX historically at market...
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S&P 500 Going to 7000? | NAV Erosion Myth | Fed HAS Cut Rates at All-Time Highs| China & Emerging Markets Surge | Answering Audience Questions
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli this week answer some audience questions plus comparing 1995 first Fed rate cut to today’s market and asking if the next year can be a repeat of the 1995-96 period. They also dispel the myth that the Fed has never cut rates when markets are at all-time highs. Later, they look at the China and Emerging markets surge after the Chinese government does a bunch of things to juice markets. In the questions Derek and Jay dispel some myths between NAV erosion and NAV decline. All this and more this week on the Broke Pie Chart Podcast. Similarities between 1995...
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Fed Goes Big | Market Performance After Rate Cuts | Election Volatility in VIX Futures Is a Crowded Trade | Year End S&P 500 Predictions
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to do a post Fed 50 basis point cut analysis. What typically happens a year later in markets after the first interest rate cut? Maybe there isn’t election volatility priced into the VIX and it’s all to do with interest rates. Plus, looking back at the S&P 500 year end 2024 predictions top investment banks made in December of 2023. Hint, it didn’t go the way they expected. How many new all-time highs have we had this year and how does that compare with past years? More all-time highs All-time highs by month Will the market go to 6000?...
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Fed Decision Primer | CPI Disappoints? | Market Breakout or Breakdown? | Market Pricing in Too Many Cuts?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore covers what you need to know going into the fed meeting. Plus, reviewing whether the Fed has ever cut rates with a forward price to earnings ratios this high? Then looking at potential technical analysis outcomes on the S&P 500 Index include a cup with handle, triple top, and more. Historical Forward PE ratios at Fed cuts VIX Index doesn’t go berserk during Wednesday’s CPI selloff and recovery Is the market pricing in too many future fed cuts Comparing CPI Supercore, CPI Core, and CPI from a month over month annualized basis Does CPI tell us anything about future Fed...
info_outlineDerek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial start by looking at GameStop’s (GME) call option open interest and activity in the days prior to Roaring Kitty tweeting . They notice the increase in options activity ahead of the surge in the stock’s price and volume spike and whether the options market led the stock market on GME. Then they comment on another new all-time high by the S&P 500 Index and how according to a BofA chart 90% of the time markets are not in a recession or in stagflation since 1948. Later Derek and Jay bring up the CPI Supercore trending higher while car insurance rates are soaring. What does this mean for the Fed and rates? Finally explanation of when covered calls get called away early.
Roaring Kitty comes out of hibernation to tweet.
Looking at GameStop options activity prior to Roaring Kitty’s tweet
Did the options activity prior to the stock activity mean people knew the tweet was coming?
Are we in for a GameStop meme stock part 2?
Why retail investors should use caution in trading GameStop.
Looking at the implied volatility on GameStop options to understand expected volatility.
CPI Supercore continues to rise YoY and what that means for interest rates and the Fed
Car insurance rates are surging 20%+ and rising
How long it takes the S&P 500 to go up each 100 point increment
According to a Bank of America graph 90% of the time since 1948 no recessions or stagflation
Enough about the Fed and rates?
When do covered calls get called away early and assigned?
Understanding dividends vs time value in deciding when covered calls get assigned
Early assignment for options
What implied volatility says about what the options market expects a stock to move
GameStop 300% implied volatility is massive and how expensive the ATM straddle is
Mentioned in this Episode
PPI comes in hotter than expected click below to read the PPI report release
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]