#2: Riding the "A" Train of Cognitive Dissonance
Release Date: 07/07/2020
#2: Riding the "A" Train of Cognitive Dissonance
The Butler Financial Podcast
Cognitive dissonance is your friend. With a highly uncertain (if not bleak) macroeconomic outlook, and broadly elevated valuations, it’s tempting for even the seasoned investor to ditch the complex questions involved in crafting a long-term investment strategy for the much simpler question that appears easy to answer: "Will stocks likely go up or down?" In this episode, we argue for staying on the train of complexity rather than getting off at a stop that appears to offer comforting certainty.
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#1: Strange Facts to Keep in Mind Late in a Bull Market
The Butler Financial Podcast
Mark and Mikyo examine a prevalent narrative among investors today: after a long, powerful bull market, stocks can't go much higher, right? If anything, it seems likely that a recession will arrive soon. Given that, shouldn't one dramatically reduce exposure to growth/risk assets? Mark and Mikyo discuss the biases that cause investors to feel comfortable and confident making this kind of conservative bet, and dig into historical market data to quantify the potential cost of trying to miss recessions.
info_outlineCognitive dissonance is your friend. With a highly uncertain (if not bleak) macroeconomic outlook, and broadly elevated valuations, it’s tempting for even the seasoned investor to ditch the complex questions involved in crafting a long-term investment strategy for the much simpler question that appears easy to answer: "Will stocks likely go up or down?" In this episode, we argue for staying on the train of complexity rather than getting off at a stop that appears to offer comforting certainty.