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Logistically Speaking...What's the future of US Trade and Tariffs?

Logistically Speaking...

Release Date: 12/23/2024

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In this episode of Logistically Speaking, Scott Case and sit down with Brandon Fried, Executive Director of the , at in Dallas. Brandon shares his insights on the current state of the air cargo industry, critical challenges facing forwarders, and emerging opportunities in a changing global landscape. This episode was recorded on Sunday, March 2nd and at the conference, the imposition of Canadian, Mexican and Chinese tariffs were discussed, came into existence and then in the case of Canada and Mexico, were partially removed two days later on USMCA-qualifying goods. Key Topics: The evolution...

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Logistically Speaking...What's the future of US Trade and Tariffs? show art Logistically Speaking...What's the future of US Trade and Tariffs?

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In this episode of Logistically Speaking, co-hosts Scott Case and Cameron Roberts sit down with Paul Bingham, Director of Global Intelligence and Analytics, Transportation Consulting for S&P Global Market Intelligence, to dissect the potential impact of sweeping new tariff proposals following the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. The discussion centers on how proposed tariffs - ranging from a global 10% import duty to targeted levies of up to 200% on specific trading partners - could reshape international commerce and supply chains. Bingham reveals how S&P Global has...

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De minimis, originating from Section 321 of the Tariff Act of 1930, has evolved from its humble $5 threshold (equivalent to $85-90 today) to become a cornerstone of modern e-commerce imports. While the 2015 Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act's increase to $800 grabbed headlines, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) notes that the average de minimis shipment value remains around $55-60. The real story isn't the threshold increase, but rather how the pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, leading to an unprecedented surge in these shipments—from hundreds of thousands just a...

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If it's an election year, there are three certainties you can expect from Congress: 100% of House members are focused on getting re-elected. 33% of Senators are focused on getting re-elected. Probably less than 10% of the country has any belief they'll do something meaningful and significant for the country, other than getting out of DC to stump for their jobs. Increasingly, though, the two major parties are seeking to both contrast themselves to their opponents while simultaneously appearing unified on issues that are "American" (which feels like a code word for 'nationalist'). ...

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Despite having recorded episode 04 talking insurance, at the time we spoke no one could have imagined that a containership would strike and destroy bridge, essentially shutting off an entier port from commerce. Yet that is what happened when the Dali struck a support pillar of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, taking down the bridge and causing loss of life and billions of dollars in damage for cleanup and new bridge construction. One week on from the accident, the the investigation process is well underway and federal agencies are working around the clock to safely and quickly...

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Logistically Speaking...What Are Cargo Owners To Do About The Red Sea? show art Logistically Speaking...What Are Cargo Owners To Do About The Red Sea?

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If a butterfly flaps its wings in Asia, a wave crashes against the coastal United States some period of time later, or so the adage goes. Since the attack in Israel last October, besides what is transpiring inside of Gaza, all eyes have been on the Red Sea. The Houthi rebels, whose history in Yemen goes back much further than most people are aware, have made targeting shipping interests a means to gain the world's attention. The Houthis have said that the attacks on ships and seafarers will continue until such time as there is a cease fire. Most recently, the crew of a UK-flagged vessel was ...

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In this episode of Logistically Speaking, co-hosts Scott Case and Cameron Roberts sit down with Paul Bingham, Director of Global Intelligence and Analytics, Transportation Consulting for S&P Global Market Intelligence, to dissect the potential impact of sweeping new tariff proposals following the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. The discussion centers on how proposed tariffs - ranging from a global 10% import duty to targeted levies of up to 200% on specific trading partners - could reshape international commerce and supply chains. Bingham reveals how S&P Global has recalibrated their economic models to account for these dramatic policy shifts, offering insights into what businesses might expect in 2025 and beyond.

The conversation explores the ripple effects these tariff changes could have throughout the global economy, from consumer prices to fuel costs, and examines how different sectors might adapt to this new trade landscape. Cameron details the means by which the administration can promulgate some of these proposals on day one based on the power vested in the Executive Branch by Congress.

Bingham shares detailed analysis on how these policies could impact critical trade relationships, particularly with Mexico and Canada under USMCA, while also addressing concurrent challenges in global shipping, including Red Sea disruptions, evolving air cargo capacity, and the ongoing transformation of international supply chains. The discussion further examines the intersection of tariff policy with other key economic factors, including the CHIPS Act implementation, de minimis trade rules, and the potential responses from BRICS nations.

About Paul Bingham:
Paul Bingham serves as the Director of Global Intelligence and Analytics, Transportation Consulting for S&P Global Market Intelligence. With decades of experience in economic and transportation analysis, Bingham is a recognized expert in global trade patterns and supply chain economics. He regularly provides strategic guidance to both public and private sector clients on transportation and trade policy issues. His work at S&P Global includes leading teams that develop economic forecasts and analyze global trade trends, helping organizations navigate complex international market dynamics and policy changes. Bingham is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and events, including the recent WESCCON gathering of customs brokers and freight forwarders.

Relevant Links:

USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) https://ustr.gov/usmca

S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/

International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/sanctions-programs-and-country-information

CHIPS and Science Act https://www.commerce.gov/chips

Section 232 Trade Investigations https://www.bis.doc.gov/232

De Minimis Trade Rules & Section 321 https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-import-export/e-commerce/section-321-value-increases

Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) https://www.fmc.gov/

TIACA (The International Air Cargo Association) https://www.tiaca.org/

Suez Canal Alternative Routes https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/

BRICS Economic Coalition https://infobrics.org/