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S1/E56: Iranians Connect to the Internet by Starlink

Iran's Gambit

Release Date: 01/06/2025

S1/E74: Tehran Positions Itself for Renewed Talks with Washington show art S1/E74: Tehran Positions Itself for Renewed Talks with Washington

Iran's Gambit

As a prelude to potential diplomatic engagement with the United States, the Islamic Republic is strategically signaling both deterrence and openness to negotiation. The activation of Yemeni Houthi proxies and the controlled disclosure of the Revolutionary Guard’s subterranean missile infrastructure serve as calibrated demonstrations of Iran’s strategic depth and military resilience, aimed at reinforcing its bargaining position vis-à-vis President Donald J. Trump. Simultaneously, the of the U.S. flag from the facility’s floor, alongside Tehran’s formal diplomatic response,...

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S1/E73: Iran Celebrates 1404: New Year, Old Problems show art S1/E73: Iran Celebrates 1404: New Year, Old Problems

Iran's Gambit

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s March 20 New Year address was far from jubilant, conveying a tone of somber resilience rather than triumphalism. He acknowledged that Iranians had endured significant economic hardship over the past year, with further adversities likely in the year ahead. Regarding recent communications from President Donald J. Trump and other U.S. officials, Khamenei adopted a posture of defiance, though his rhetoric was not categorically intransigent:  Iran has no proxies in the Middle East region, he asserted, which may indicate Khamenei willingness to accommodate Trump's...

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S1/E72: In the Shadow of War & Negotiation show art S1/E72: In the Shadow of War & Negotiation

Iran's Gambit

As the Islamic Republic of Iran prepares for negotiations with the administration of President Donald J. Trump, the Islamic Republic finds itself in urgent need of expendable bargaining assets to safeguard the strategic core of its nuclear program. Yemen’s Houthis, a key force aligned with Iran’s regional ambitions, present an ideal sacrificial piece: First, Tehran escalates Houthi aggression against U.S. interests, using the Yemeni proxy as a tool to apply pressure and shape the regional security landscape. Then, at the negotiating table, Tehran offers de-escalation—promising to rein...

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S1/E71: Iran's Other Problems: Seismic Vulnerability, Energy and Water Crises show art S1/E71: Iran's Other Problems: Seismic Vulnerability, Energy and Water Crises

Iran's Gambit

Iran faces escalating environmental and infrastructural crises, exposing governance deficiencies. Tehran’s seismic vulnerability is critical, with accumulated tectonic stress indicating a high-probability magnitude 7+ earthquake. Rapid urbanization and inadequate disaster preparedness put millions at risk. Simultaneously, Iran’s energy crisis worsens as demand outpaces supply. Dr. Hashem Oraee highlights policy mismanagement, with heavy subsidies fueling excessive consumption. Prioritizing residential energy over industrial needs has led to economic stagnation, inflation, and public...

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S1/E70: Trump's Letter & Preconditions For Negotiations show art S1/E70: Trump's Letter & Preconditions For Negotiations

Iran's Gambit

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S1/E69: Khamenei's Distrust of Trump show art S1/E69: Khamenei's Distrust of Trump

Iran's Gambit

On the same day that former Emirati Foreign Minister Anwar Mohammed Gargash visited Tehran, to deliver an official communique from President Donald J. Trump to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei categorically dismissed the prospect of diplomatic negotiations with the United States.

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S1/E68: To Negotiate Or Not To Negotiate? show art S1/E68: To Negotiate Or Not To Negotiate?

Iran's Gambit

On March 7, during an interview with Fox Business, President Donald J. asserted that he had dispatched a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stating: "I hope you're going to negotiate because it's going to be a lot better for Iran... If we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing for them... The other alternative is we have to do something, because you can't let them have a nuclear weapon." Later that day, while addressing the press from the Oval Office, the president : "We're down to final strokes with Iran,... We can't let them have a nuclear...

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S1/E67: Russian Mediation Offer a Nonstarter show art S1/E67: Russian Mediation Offer a Nonstarter

Iran's Gambit

Today’s discussion is dedicated to Iran-Russia relations, with a particular focus on Moscow’s diplomatic overture to facilitate U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to broker nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic. First, I will analyze the strategic implications of Russia’s proposal, which was initially by Bloomberg News on March 4. Then, I will examine the reactions of Iranian political analysts to this development, assessing their perspectives within the broader context of Iran’s foreign policy and regional security dynamics.

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S1/E66: Pezeshkian Blames Khamenei For Lack of Negotiations With the U.S. show art S1/E66: Pezeshkian Blames Khamenei For Lack of Negotiations With the U.S.

Iran's Gambit

On March 2, a parliamentary majority impeached Dr. Abdulnaser Hemmati, minister of economy. Defending Hemmati, President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized to parliamentarians that Iran's economic problems will not be solved with the impeachment, and pointed at a different solution: Negotiations with the United States, in the hope of achieving sanction relief. However, he also added that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not allowing such negotiations. In other words, Pezeshkian is directly accusing Khamenei for the hardships Iranians suffer under the U.S. sanctions regime. But today's...

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S1/E65: No Direct Talks with the U.S. as Long as Maximum Pressure Persists show art S1/E65: No Direct Talks with the U.S. as Long as Maximum Pressure Persists

Iran's Gambit

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has recently conveyed contradictory signals regarding the prospect of direct diplomatic engagement with the United States. On January 28, his remarks suggested to such negotiations, whereas on February 7, he appeared to the possibility. Officials within the Islamic Republic have subsequently interpreted Khamenei’s statements through the lens of their respective institutional interests. In the latest demonstration of bureaucratic politics, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov,...

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There has always been a correlation, if not causality, between technological innovation and sociopolitical transformation: Gutenberg’s printing press catalyzed the Protestant Reformation, and from his exile in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini famously utilized cassette tape recordings of his sermons to galvanize the Iranian populace against the Pahlavi regime during the 1970s. BBC Persian's radio service too aided the Iranian revolutionaries. The Internet similarly embodies revolutionary potential, a reality that underscores the Islamic Republic’s systematic strategies to regulate and suppress it since Iran's initial connection in 1993. Following Israel, Iran became the second nation in the Middle East to gain access to the World Wide Web in 1993. However, during this nascent stage, Internet usage in Iran was confined to academic research within universities, rendering it inaccessible to the broader public sphere.

Concurrently, an increasing number of Iranians began to adopt satellite television as an alternative information ecosystem. In 1994, the Iranian parliament enacted legislation criminalizing the ownership and use of satellite receivers—colloquially referred to as "dishes"—which facilitated access to transnational satellite broadcasts. This legislative intervention was intended to preserve the monopoly of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) as the hegemonic apparatus for information dissemination and cultural programming within Iranian society. Nevertheless, despite state-enforced compliance mechanisms such as law enforcement raids to confiscate satellite equipment and the deployment of advanced signal-jamming technologies, a substantial segment of the population—including members of the political elite—circumvented these restrictions. Satellite television emerged as a parallel media domain, offering alternative narratives that undermined the state-controlled information architecture, thereby challenging the government's capacity to sustain informational hegemony.

Back to the internet, initially, Internet access in Iran was restricted to universities and research institutions. However, according to World Bank data, fixed broadband subscriptions in the country surged from 176 in year 2000 to nearly 11 million in 2021. Similarly, mobile cellular subscriptions grew from 9,200 in 1994 to almost 136 million in 2021. An increasing proportion of these mobile devices are Internet-enabled, granting users access to social media platforms. This exponential growth signifies a notable milestone for a developing nation but simultaneously presents profound challenges to an authoritarian regime intent on constraining personal and political freedoms.

To preserve its dominance over the digital information ecosystem, the regime has systematically imposed restrictions on widely used platforms, including YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and Telegram. Nonetheless, Iranian citizens have adeptly utilized Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to circumvent state-imposed censorship and access restricted content. From the regime’s perspective, this challenge has been further exacerbated by advancements in satellite Internet technology. Increasingly, Iranian users are bypassing government-controlled telecommunications infrastructure by connecting to global satellite networks, such as Starlink, provided by the international aerospace and telecommunications corporation SpaceX. This trend is extensively documented in the Tehran E-Commerce Association’s fourth report on the "State of the Internet in Iran.