Rethinking Natural Catastrophe Modeling: New Approaches for a Changing Climate
Release Date: 09/26/2024
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Hear from Judson Berkey, Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS, as we learn first-hand how banks are approaching nature risk. Within finance, nature is usually treated as background: important, but invisible. However, that is beginning to change. New frameworks, regulations, and expectations are emerging worldwide, and many firms are starting to measure their impacts and dependencies on nature. In this episode, we explore how that shift is happening from the perspective of someone inside one of the world’s largest banks. We discuss: Which lessons from climate...
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Hear from Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, as we explore the potential of positive tipping points in accelerating the transition to a net-zero economy. What happens when the conversation about climate change shifts from avoiding disaster to unlocking positive change? Suddenly, it’s not just about risk - it’s about momentum. Because while some systems may be close to dangerous tipping points, others – like clean energy, electric transport, and sustainable food – are tipping in the right direction. That’s why in this episode, we explore how to accelerate those positive shifts, including: ...
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From Basel to Biodiversity: An Ex-Central Banker’s Take on Nature Risk
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Hear from Hirotaka Hideshima, former central banker and member of the TNFD, as we explore the parallels between financial risk, nature risk and regulation. What happens when a central banker steps into the world of nature risk? Well, they can see parallels between financial risk and nature risk that aren’t obvious to others. For example, just as the global financial crisis exposed systemic vulnerabilities in banking, nature loss poses systemic risks that today’s models and disclosures struggle to capture. And although the Basel framework and the Taskforce on Nature-related...
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Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis
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Hear from Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, as we reconsider systemic risk in an increasingly interconnected world. When we think about climate risk, it’s easy to focus on individual threats - rising sea levels, extreme weather events, or biodiversity loss. But in reality, these risks are part of a larger, interconnected web of crises. Climate change interacts with geopolitical tensions, pandemics, food insecurity, and energy shocks, often creating feedback loops that can strain or even break the systems we depend on. That’s why in this episode, we explore...
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From the Archives: Revisiting the Tail Risks from Climate Change
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In this special episode, revisit this conversation with Prof. Tim Benton, as we remind ourselves of the devastating potential of the tail risks from climate change. Our regular listeners will know that we usually to take a break from the podcast in August. But every once in a while, in this fast-moving field of climate and sustainability, it’s helpful to pause and reflect on where we’ve been, what we’ve learned, and how far we’ve come. That’s why we’re re-releasing this episode from the archives, and revisiting a conversation that’s just as relevant today - if not more so -...
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Resilience and Retreat: What Insurability Tells Us About Climate Risk
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Hear from Rowan Douglas CBE, CEO of Climate Risk and Resilience at Howden Group, as we explore the vital role of insurance in the climate transition. When we talk about climate resilience, insurance often flies under the radar. But it’s one of the oldest and most powerful tools we have for managing risk: pooling resources, spreading losses, and crucially, sending signals about where risk is growing too great to bear. That’s why in this episode, we explore the vital and evolving role of insurance in supporting climate resilience. We discuss: How insurance acts as both a safety net for...
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Greening the Games: How Paris 2024 Delivered on Climate Ambition
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Hear from Georgina Grenon, Director of Environmental Excellence for the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, as we explore what it truly means to put sustainability first. Turning climate ambition into reality is a complicated process. Sustainability often requires systemic change, which is precisely why it can be so challenging. That’s why in this episode, we’re hoping to inspire and encourage our audience with the story of the greening of one of the largest and most watched events in the world: the Olympic and Paralympic Games. We explore: How clear targets and innovative...
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Why Food System Disruption Is the New Normal
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Hear from Stephanie Race, Founder & CEO of Earth Analytics Group, as we dive into the connections between physical climate risk, the global food supply chain, and systemic financial risk. As climate impacts intensify - from wildfires to water scarcity - these risks are no longer distant. They’re material, and they’re here to stay. This is most evident in our food system, where disrupted crop yields, shifting growing regions, and stressed supply chains are becoming the new normal. That’s why in this episode, we explore the vital and often overlooked links between climate...
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Beyond 1.5°C: How to Think About Our New Climate Reality
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Hear from Laurie Laybourn, Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risk Initiative, as we explore how climate risks change in a 1.5°C world. As we look increasingly certain to breach 1.5 degrees of warming, we are entering an era defined not just by extreme weather and policy uncertainty, but also by cascading disruptions, systemic instability, and the potential for tipping points in both the environment and society. That’s why in this episode, we take a hard look at how our understanding of climate risk needs to evolve. We explore: Why traditional climate risk frameworks may be...
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How to Make an Impact: Secrets to Climate Startup Success
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Hear from Alyssa Gilbert, Director of Innovation at the Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment, as we dive into the climate startup ecosystem. Innovation can provide powerful responses to environmental risks, from AI tools predicting the spread of wildfires in real time, to seaweed-based packaging replacing plastic at mass scale. But in fact, innovation means more than just inventing new technologies – it also means changing the ways we do business today, and helping connect these solutions with the people who can best make use of them. That’s why in today’s episode,...
info_outlineHear from three leading experts in natural catastrophe modeling, as we explore how climate change is causing the insurance industry to rethink their approach to modeling extreme weather.
In the previous episode, we discussed the challenges facing the insurance industry from climate change – so in this episode, we’re going to dive into some of the solutions.
Since natural catastrophe (Nat Cat) modeling was established in the late 1980s, the predictive power of their models has come from the statistical analysis of historical data. But as climate change continues to push the frequency and severity of extreme weather into uncharted territory, this approach begins to lose some of its potency.
In response to this, new ways of thinking about Nat Cat modeling and insurance have emerged, with a focus on better capturing the effects of the changing climate on extreme weather. In this episode, we’ll explore:
- The power of incorporating physics into the traditional Nat Cat modeling process;
- The recent explosion of earth system data and the role of machine learning in harnessing it; and
- How improved Nat Cat modelling can support innovative products, like parametric insurance, and what this means for closing the insurance gap.
To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr
For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate
If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com
Links from today’s discussion:
- Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Database: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/152/1/MWR-D-22-0317.1.xml
- Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/8/mwr-d-16-0429.1.xml?rskey=9h0SUA&result=2
- Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Rain Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/search?f_0=author&q_0=Thomas+Loridan
Speaker’s Bio(s)
Jamie Rodney, CEO, Reask
Jamie Rodney is the CEO of Reask, specializing in extreme weather risk modeling and forecasting. Jamie has over a decade of experience in applying advances in extreme weather analytics to the financial and reinsurance sectors. Jamie is dedicated to leveraging advanced technologies to enhance global climate risk understanding and support organizations in navigating complex climate challenges. Based in Zurich, he leads Reask’s pioneering vision in developing a new class of extreme weather risk measurement capabilities that do not exist today. Jamie holds a PhD in Mathematics from University College London.
Thomas Loridan, Co-Founder and Chief Science Officer, Reask
Thomas Loridan is Co-founder and Chief Science Officer at Reask, where he leads the development of cutting-edge natural catastrophe models using machine learning to quantify global climate risk. Holding a PhD in Boundary Layer Meteorology from King’s College London (2011), Thomas has deep expertise in atmospheric sciences and computational modeling. His work includes the creation of advanced wind field models for tropical cyclones and the integration of high-resolution data into probabilistic frameworks.
David Schmid, Head of Global Data Product, Reask
David Schmid is the Global Head of Data Products at Reask, where he oversees the development of products for risk assessment, parametric insurance and early warning systems. With over 15 years of experience in natural catastrophe risk modelling and parametric insurance, David has held roles at Glacier Re, NewRe, and Munich Re Capital Partners, where he contributed to advancing risk assessment and pricing standards. At Reask, David remains committed to developing innovative solutions that address the evolving needs of policyholders, brokers, and risk carriers.