Rethinking Natural Catastrophe Modeling: New Approaches for a Changing Climate
Release Date: 09/26/2024
Beyond Climate: A Risk Professionals’ Guide to the Biodiversity COPs
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Hear from Eva Zabey, CEO of Business for Nature, as we dive into the complex landscape of environmental diplomacy, and the role of business in halting and reversing biodiversity loss. We know that our economies depend on nature. But with biodiversity loss and climate change both putting pressure on ecosystems, businesses and financial institutions are facing increasing risks. In recognition of this, there is action on the policy front, and with global biodiversity agreements taking shape, the question isn’t whether firms should act – but how they can do so effectively. That’s why in...
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What We Learned About Climate and Nature Risk in 2024
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Modelling Economic Complexity: Insights for Risk Professionals
Climate Risk Podcast
Hear from Prof. J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford, as we explore new modelling approaches designed to better capture the complex and chaotic nature of our climate and economy. We spend a lot of time on this podcast covering the transition to a low carbon economy, which will be driven largely by policies and technological innovation. These policies tend to be based on insights from economics. And our view on the pace of innovation is often informed by expert judgement. But traditional economic models often oversimplify the world, leading to poor...
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Predicting Our Climate Future: What We Do, Don’t and Can’t Know
Climate Risk Podcast
Hear from Prof. David Stainforth of LSE’s Grantham Research Institute, as we explore the limitations of climate modelling and the implications for risk management. There are some things in life that we can be virtually certain about: if one throws a ball into the air, it will fall back down. Similarly, scientists have evidence beyond reasonable doubt that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased a lot in the recent past. But there are quite a lot of things that we don’t know with any confidence, giving rise to significant uncertainty when we try to forecast those...
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How to Fix Climate Change & Biodiversity Loss at the Same Time
Climate Risk Podcast
Hear from Prof. Pete Smith of the University of Aberdeen, as we explore the overlap in the challenges from, and solutions to, climate change and biodiversity loss. Climate change and biodiversity loss are often treated separately – in science, policy, and even risk management. But as the connections between these global crises come into sharper focus, it’s clear that understanding them together is essential for real progress. In this episode, we break down those silos of climate and nature, exploring an integrated approach and how it might help us address these challenges...
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Carbon Pricing: Harnessing the Power of Markets to Drive Climate Action
Climate Risk Podcast
Hear from Gordon Bennett, Managing Director at ICE, as we dive into theory and practice of carbon pricing and its important role in driving the transition to net zero. Carbon pricing is the poster child of market-based solutions to climate change. The principle is simple: by assigning a cost to greenhouse gas emissions, we incentivize polluters to emit less, and to do so in the most cost-effective way. But there’s a significant gap between the theory and practice. Currently, only 24% of global emissions – about 12.8 gigatonnes – are covered by pricing mechanisms such as carbon taxes...
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Rethinking Natural Catastrophe Modeling: New Approaches for a Changing Climate
Climate Risk Podcast
Hear from three leading experts in natural catastrophe modeling, as we explore how climate change is causing the insurance industry to rethink their approach to modeling extreme weather. In the previous episode, we discussed the challenges facing the insurance industry from climate change – so in this episode, we’re going to dive into some of the solutions. Since natural catastrophe (Nat Cat) modeling was established in the late 1980s, the predictive power of their models has come from the statistical analysis of historical data. But as climate change continues to push the frequency and...
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Uninsurable: The Future of Insurance in a Changing Climate
Climate Risk Podcast
Hear from two leading experts, as we explore how insurance is adapting to climate change and the role of the industry beyond underwriting. Insurance plays a critical role in protecting households and businesses from the impacts of climate change, and with physical risks on the rise, it will become ever more important. However, insurers have also been significantly impacted by these risks, with annual losses from natural catastrophes exceeding 100 billion dollars for four consecutive years. The primary concern is that these physical risks eventually become uninsurable, as we are already...
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Urban Resilience: How Our Cities Must Adapt to Climate Change
Climate Risk Podcast
Hear from Emma Howard Boyd CBE, Chair of the London Climate Resilience Review, as we dive into the challenges of climate adaptation and what it means for our cities. 2023 was not only the warmest year on record, it also marked the warmest 10-year period on record. As we witness first-hand the impacts of a warming climate, including heatwaves, more intense precipitation and increased flooding, the case for building resilience against these risks becomes ever more important. This is particularly so in our cities, where the concentration of populations and economic activity make adaptation...
info_outlineHear from three leading experts in natural catastrophe modeling, as we explore how climate change is causing the insurance industry to rethink their approach to modeling extreme weather.
In the previous episode, we discussed the challenges facing the insurance industry from climate change – so in this episode, we’re going to dive into some of the solutions.
Since natural catastrophe (Nat Cat) modeling was established in the late 1980s, the predictive power of their models has come from the statistical analysis of historical data. But as climate change continues to push the frequency and severity of extreme weather into uncharted territory, this approach begins to lose some of its potency.
In response to this, new ways of thinking about Nat Cat modeling and insurance have emerged, with a focus on better capturing the effects of the changing climate on extreme weather. In this episode, we’ll explore:
- The power of incorporating physics into the traditional Nat Cat modeling process;
- The recent explosion of earth system data and the role of machine learning in harnessing it; and
- How improved Nat Cat modelling can support innovative products, like parametric insurance, and what this means for closing the insurance gap.
To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr
For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate
If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]
Links from today’s discussion:
- Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Database: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/152/1/MWR-D-22-0317.1.xml
- Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/8/mwr-d-16-0429.1.xml?rskey=9h0SUA&result=2
- Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Rain Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/search?f_0=author&q_0=Thomas+Loridan
Speaker’s Bio(s)
Jamie Rodney, CEO, Reask
Jamie Rodney is the CEO of Reask, specializing in extreme weather risk modeling and forecasting. Jamie has over a decade of experience in applying advances in extreme weather analytics to the financial and reinsurance sectors. Jamie is dedicated to leveraging advanced technologies to enhance global climate risk understanding and support organizations in navigating complex climate challenges. Based in Zurich, he leads Reask’s pioneering vision in developing a new class of extreme weather risk measurement capabilities that do not exist today. Jamie holds a PhD in Mathematics from University College London.
Thomas Loridan, Co-Founder and Chief Science Officer, Reask
Thomas Loridan is Co-founder and Chief Science Officer at Reask, where he leads the development of cutting-edge natural catastrophe models using machine learning to quantify global climate risk. Holding a PhD in Boundary Layer Meteorology from King’s College London (2011), Thomas has deep expertise in atmospheric sciences and computational modeling. His work includes the creation of advanced wind field models for tropical cyclones and the integration of high-resolution data into probabilistic frameworks.
David Schmid, Head of Global Data Product, Reask
David Schmid is the Global Head of Data Products at Reask, where he oversees the development of products for risk assessment, parametric insurance and early warning systems. With over 15 years of experience in natural catastrophe risk modelling and parametric insurance, David has held roles at Glacier Re, NewRe, and Munich Re Capital Partners, where he contributed to advancing risk assessment and pricing standards. At Reask, David remains committed to developing innovative solutions that address the evolving needs of policyholders, brokers, and risk carriers.