Climate Risk Podcast

Hello and welcome to GARP’s Climate Risk Podcast series, where we will be investigating how climate change is impacting the world of business and finance and what this means for risk management. Through the course of this series we will be bringing you insights from those working at the cutting edge of climate change. We will be joined by regulators, business leaders and risk practitioners who will help us build up a holistic view of the risks and opportunities that climate change poses and explore how this might affect you in your day to day work.

(Part 3) 100th Episode Special: Is Finance Ready for the Risks Ahead? 09/17/2026

(Part 3) 100th Episode Special: Is Finance Ready for the Risks Ahead? Part three of this three-part special asks what seven years of climate risk have taught finance, where the sector’s limits lie, and why there are reasons for optimism. In the final part of our 100th episode miniseries, we turn to the financial system and the risk profession itself. Over the past seven years, banks, insurers, asset owners/managers, regulators and risk professionals have all had to grapple with a rapidly evolving understanding of climate and nature risk. The financial sector has developed new tools, products and approaches to climate and nature risk. But major challenges remain, including misaligned incentives, imperfect models, fragmented data and the difficulty of capturing risks that cascade across interconnected systems. Drawing on some of the most memorable conversations from the podcast, we explore: How financial institutions are embedding climate risk into decision making, and how far finance can realistically drive the transition; What seven years of modelling, scenario analysis and data have taught us about the strengths and limitations of the tools we rely on; And why innovation, systems thinking and the growing sophistication of the risk profession provide reasons for optimism. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speakers Jo Paisley, President of the GARP Risk Institute Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Set up in early 2018, the Institute now focuses on climate and nature risk management thought leadership. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles, across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK’s first concurrent stress test in 2014. Prior to joining GARP, she worked as HSBC’s Global Head of Stress Testing. Dr. Maxine Nelson, Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP’s research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate- and nature-related financial risk management. She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD about how best to apply probability theory to real world problems. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/42926782

(Part Two) 100th Episode Special: We Know the Risks. So Why Aren’t We Moving Faster? 09/10/2026

(Part Two) 100th Episode Special: We Know the Risks. So Why Aren’t We Moving Faster? Part two of this three-part special looks back at seven years of climate policy to ask what has worked, what has fallen short, and whether the response is keeping pace with the risks. In the second part of our 100th episode miniseries, we turn from the science to the response. Over the past seven years, governments, regulators and markets have introduced a huge range of policies, frameworks and commitments aimed at accelerating the transition. But how effective have they really been? From the limitations of the COP process and the politics of carbon pricing to the explosion of climate disclosure, our past guests have repeatedly challenged whether the tools we are using are capable of delivering change at the speed required. Drawing on some of the most memorable conversations from the podcast, we explore: What seven years of climate policy have taught us about the strengths and limitations of COPs, carbon pricing and other transition levers; Whether disclosure, regulation and financial market reform are driving meaningful change or adding complexity without enough impact; And what history and systems thinking can teach us about the risks of moving too slowly, from societal instability to cascading and derailment risks. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speakers Jo Paisley, President of the GARP Risk Institute Jo is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Set up in early 2018, the Institute now focuses on climate and nature risk management thought leadership. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles, across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK’s first concurrent stress test in 2014. Prior to joining GARP, she worked as HSBC’s Global Head of Stress Testing. Mark Campanale, Founder & CEO of Carbon Tracker Mark is Founder and CEO of the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a climate-focused financial think tank best known for its work on stranded assets, the carbon bubble and transition risk in the fossil fuel sector. He has worked in sustainable finance for more than 20 years, co-founding some of the UK’s earliest responsible investment funds and serving in senior advisory roles across sustainable finance, including with GFANZ, UNEP and UKSIF. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/42825805

(Part One) 100th Episode Special: Seven Years of Climate Risk — What Have We Learned? 09/03/2026

(Part One) 100th Episode Special: Seven Years of Climate Risk — What Have We Learned? Part one of this three-part special looks back at the seven years of the podcast to ask what we have learnt about the science, what surprised us, and what comes next. Seven years and 100 episodes after the Climate Risk Podcast began, we’re taking the opportunity to step back and ask what we have learned, what has changed, and what the years ahead may hold. In the first part of this special three-part miniseries, we return to the science. From climate tipping points and cascading risks to the role of oceans, nature and food systems, our past guests have repeatedly shown that climate risk is nonlinear, deeply interconnected and difficult to predict with precision. Drawing on some of the most memorable conversations from the podcast, we explore: Why tipping points and nonlinear change make climate change such a profound risk management challenge; How interconnected systems, from oceans and biodiversity to food and infrastructure, can amplify and transmit climate shocks; And whether events in the real world are unfolding in line with scientific models, or faster than we expected. -------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: -------- Today’s Speakers Jo Paisley, President of the GARP Risk Institute Jo is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Set up in early 2018, the Institute now focuses on climate and nature risk management thought leadership. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles, across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK’s first concurrent stress test in 2014. Prior to joining GARP, she worked as HSBC’s Global Head of Stress Testing. Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, Founding Director, Global Systems Institute, and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science, University of Exeter Prof. Tim Lenton OBE is the founding Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science. He has more than 25 years research experience, focused on modelling of the biosphere, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and associated tipping points. Tim is renowned for his work identifying climate tipping points, which informed the setting of the 1.5C climate target, associated net zero targets, and nationally determined contributions.  Tim works with policymakers and businesses helping them assess the risks of climate change and nature loss and highlighting the opportunities for ‘positive tipping points’ that can accelerate change towards net zero. In 2023, Professor Lenton led a team of more than 200 people from over 90 organisations in 26 countries to produce an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. The ‘Global Tipping Points Report’ produced in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund was published at COP28.  /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/42643795

Unlocking Transition Finance: Policy, Credibility and the Flow of Capital 07/30/2026

Unlocking Transition Finance: Policy, Credibility and the Flow of Capital Vanessa Havard-Williams OBE explores how the UK is building a credible transition finance market, from stronger policy and transition planning to public finance, insurance and investable projects. Financing the transition to a low carbon economy is often presented as a question of capital: how much money is needed, where it should come from, and which technologies or projects should receive it. But the reality is more complicated. Finance cannot drive the transition in isolation. Companies will only invest at scale where the economics make sense, investors still need an appropriate return, and government policy plays a crucial role in shaping whether transition opportunities are commercially viable. There are also difficult questions around what credible transition finance actually looks like. How should financial institutions support high emitting companies as they decarbonise? How can they distinguish genuine transition from greenwashing? And how can new technologies and first of a kind projects overcome the barriers that often prevent private capital from flowing? That’s why this episode explores: What transition finance means, and why clear definitions and credible transition plans matter; Why effective real economy policy is essential if capital is to flow at the scale required; And how government, financial institutions, public finance and insurance can work together to remove barriers and support a whole economy transition. ---------------- Links from this Episode: Scaling Transition Finance: Findings of the Transition Finance Market Review: From Planetary Hazard to Financial Stability: Disentangling Climate Risk and Institutional Responsibility (Lisa Sachs Report): Investor Climate Action: What Finance Can and Can’t Achieve (Tom Gosling Interview): ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speaker Vanessa Havard-Williams OBE is the Senior Independent Director of UK Export Finance and Chair of the UK Export Guarantee Advisory Council. She previously led Linklaters’ global environmental and climate change practice, founded the firm’s ESG practice, and co-led its Risk and Resilience and Crisis Management teams. In 2024, Vanessa led the UK Government’s Transition Finance Market Review. She now plays a leading role in the development of the UK’s transition finance market, including as a member of the Transition Finance Council steering group and Chair of its working group on credibility and integrity. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/42226830

Fire and Flood: Lessons from Britain’s New World of Extremes 07/09/2026

Fire and Flood: Lessons from Britain’s New World of Extremes Hear from celebrated journalist David Shukman on why climate change is no longer a future risk, how extreme weather is exposing weaknesses in the systems we rely on, and why human stories are often the most powerful way to communicate climate risk. Climate risk is often discussed in terms of future scenarios, long-term projections, and abstract global targets. But for many people, the impacts are already here: in homes lost to wildfire, hospitals disrupted by extreme heat, transport systems buckling under rising temperatures, and supply chains exposed to droughts and other weather extremes. That shift from future risk to present reality raises difficult questions for governments, businesses, and risk professionals. Are institutions prepared for the climate we now live in? Who is responsible when critical systems fail? And how do we communicate these risks in a way that cuts through technical jargon and reaches people at a human level? That’s why today’s episode will explore: How extreme weather is already testing the systems we rely on; Why recent climate events, such as heatwaves and wildfires, reveal critical gaps in preparedness and accountability; And why human stories about the impacts of climate change might be the most powerful way to communicate the risks and galvanize action. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speaker David Shukman is a celebrated journalist, author, and broadcaster who spent nearly four decades at the BBC, including nine years as its first Science Editor. During his career, he reported from around the world on major global issues, including conflict, science, environmental change, and climate risk. Since leaving the BBC in 2021, David has worked as an independent writer, speaker, and commentator on climate change, biodiversity loss, and sustainable development. This work has culminated in the recent publication of his book, ‘The Response: A Story of Fire and Flood in Britain’s New World of Extremes’. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/41973080

The Serious Business of Climate Comedy: How to Engage New Audiences 06/18/2026

The Serious Business of Climate Comedy: How to Engage New Audiences Matt Winning reflects on climate fatigue, corporate engagement, and what risk professionals can learn from the art of communicating difficult topics. Climate change is often communicated through data, models, targets and warnings. But as important as those tools are, they do not always reach people emotionally, or bring them into the conversation in a way that feels human. That raises an interesting question: can comedy help? Not by making light of the problem, but by making it more accessible, cutting through jargon, and creating space for people to engage with a subject that can otherwise feel overwhelming. That’s why today’s episode will explore: How comedy can act as a gateway for people who might not otherwise engage with climate change; Why better communication matters for firms trying to build climate awareness and engagement across their teams; And what risk professionals can learn from comedy about clarity, honesty and staying true to their convictions. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speaker Dr. Matt Winning is a stand-up comedian and Lecturer in Economics of Sustainability at the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources. Matt previously served as Head of Climate Research at Oxford Economics and has spent more than a decade researching climate policy, energy transitions, climate finance and sustainability. He is also one of the world’s leading climate comedians. He wrote the book Hot Mess: What on Earth Can We Do About Climate Change? and has performed many climate-focused comedy shows, including at COP28 and the Edinburgh Fringe, as well as appearing on many BBC radio and television programmes. Combining academic expertise with humour, Matt focuses on helping audiences engage with climate change in ways that are accessible, informative and entertaining. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/41678805

Investor Climate Action: What Finance Can and Can’t Achieve 05/28/2026

Investor Climate Action: What Finance Can and Can’t Achieve Hear from Prof. Tom Gosling, Director of the Initiative in Sustainable Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE), as we examine the limits of investor-led climate action, the realities of stewardship and engagement, and why finance may need a more pragmatic approach to the transition. Over recent years, investors have been asked to play a central role in driving the net zero transition. Through targets, stewardship, portfolio commitments and engagement, the idea was that finance could help push the real economy towards decarbonization. But what if that framing overstates what investors can realistically achieve? If real-world incentives are still misaligned, and if policy remains the primary driver of economic change, then investor climate action may need to become more focused, more realistic, and more honest about its limits. That’s why this episode will explore: Why the current model of investor climate action has run into difficulty, particularly around targets and portfolio emissions; What more effective stewardship might look like when it focuses on achievable, real-world impact rather than headline commitments; And why asset owners, asset managers and risk professionals may need to rethink their roles as climate risk becomes more politically contested and physically material. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speaker Professor Tom Gosling is Director of the Initiative in Sustainable Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE). He is also a member of the Financial Conduct Authority’s Sustainable Finance Advisory Committee. With more than 20 years’ experience as a board adviser, including as a senior Partner at PwC where he established and led the firm’s executive pay practice, he brings deep expertise across corporate governance, responsible investing, investor stewardship and sustainable finance. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/41423445

The Electro-Tech Revolution: Why the Energy Transition Is Happening Faster Than You Think 05/07/2026

The Electro-Tech Revolution: Why the Energy Transition Is Happening Faster Than You Think Hear from Kingsmill Bond, Senior Energy Strategist at Ember, as we explore why renewables and electrification are reshaping the global energy system faster than many realise. We talk a great deal on this podcast about the risks and the policy challenges of the climate transition. But if that transition is actually going to happen — and happen at the speed that the science demands — there is something that has to sit at its very centre. Not the frameworks, not the disclosure requirements, not the net zero targets. The actual physical transformation of how we generate and use energy. The growth of renewables. The electrification of the things we use every day: our cars, our heating, our industry. Without that, everything else is commentary. So where do things actually stand? How fast is the transition really moving? What does the data tell us that the mainstream forecasts might have overlooked? And in a world of geopolitical turbulence, rising energy security concerns, and significant political headwinds, what are the barriers still standing between where we are and where we need to get to? This episode attempts to answer those questions. We’ll be covering: Why flows matter more than stocks — and what the data tells us about how fast the transition is really moving The geopolitical energy shocks of the 2020s, what makes them different from the 1970s, and why this time we actually have solutions And what all of this means practically for risk professionals trying to get ahead of the transition rather than simply react to it ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speaker Kingsmill Bond is Senior Energy Strategist at Ember, an open data think tank that has been tracking the growth of renewable energy and its impact on the global electricity system. Kingsmill spent years as a financial analyst and strategist at some of the world's leading investment banks before making the transition to energy. This has seen him working at Carbon Tracker and the Rocky Mountain Institute before his move to Ember. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/41174480

The Case for Adaptation: Heat Stress and the Built Environment 04/16/2026

The Case for Adaptation: Heat Stress and the Built Environment Hear from Richard Flemmings, founder and CEO of Map Impact, as we explore why “dry perils” such as heat, drought and wildfire are emerging as critical climate risks for real estate and financial decision-making. When climate risks are discussed, the focus often falls on what we might call “wet perils”: things like flooding, storms, and coastal erosion. These risks are well studied, widely modelled, and increasingly embedded in financial decision-making. But another category of hazards is emerging: “dry perils” such as heat stress, drought, and wildfire, which are often less visible, hard to quantify, and in many cases still underestimated. Understanding these risks requires looking closely at the landscape itself: how land is used, how heat is retained, and how nature can either amplify or mitigate climate hazards. And when you do that, some unexpected interactions between the built environment and a changing climate start to emerge. That’s why this episode explores: Why dry perils have been underestimated, and why they are becoming increasingly important for financial risk management; How real-world case studies reveal unanticipated consequences of climate risk and adaptation decisions; And how nature-based solutions, from urban greening to landscape-scale interventions, can help build resilience across portfolios and communities. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: To see more of our resources on climate and nature risk, visit GARP’s Risk Insights: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speaker Richard Flemmings is founder and CEO of Map Impact, a climate and environmental risk analytics firm providing bottom-up analysis of dry-perils and biodiversity. With more than 20 years’ experience applying satellite earth observation and geospatial technologies across government, engineering, and NGO clients, he specializes in translating environmental data into practical insights for housing, resilience building, and climate adaptation. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/40883820

Risk as an Enabler: How Development Banks Build Climate Resilience 03/26/2026

Risk as an Enabler: How Development Banks Build Climate Resilience Hear from Søren Elbech, Chief Risk Officer at the Inter-American Development Bank, as we explore how development banks use risk to support countries facing climate and other systemic challenges. When we think about risk in banking, the focus is often on managing exposures, pricing credit, allocating capital, and ensuring resilience. But what happens when the mission of a bank is not just to manage risk, but to actively take it on in order to improve lives? In that context, risk becomes something to be deployed — carefully, deliberately, and often in parts of the world where private markets are unwilling or unable to go. This is the role that development banks are designed to play. And increasingly, it means engaging directly with systemic risks like climate change, which shape both economic stability and the resilience of communities. That’s why this episode explores: How a development bank’s model differs fundamentally from a commercial bank, and how mechanisms like preferred creditor status enable lending in higher-risk environments; What it means to treat risk as an enabler; And how innovative financial structures, from debt-for-nature swaps to climate-linked bonds, can help countries build resilience to climate and other systemic risks. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Speaker's Bio Søren Elbech is Chief Risk Officer at the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), a mission-driven institution focused on improving lives across Latin America and the Caribbean. With more than 30 years’ experience across global capital markets and development finance — including senior roles at J.P. Morgan and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — he brings deep expertise in both international finance and mission-led risk management. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/40608680

A Different Kind of Bank: How to Embed Impact in Finance 03/05/2026

A Different Kind of Bank: How to Embed Impact in Finance Hear from Sian Williams, Chief Risk Officer at Triodos Bank UK, as we examine how values-led banking can generate positive impact for people, planet and the financial system. When we think about sustainable finance, the conversation often revolves around targets, disclosures and voluntary alliances. But what happens when sustainability is not an add-on, but the foundation of a bank’s entire business model? If sustainability is the starting point, lending decisions inevitably look different, and more complex. Not everything can be reduced to a model. Challenging trade-offs between risk, return and impact emerge. And judgment, values and governance play a much larger role in determining which activities are financed, and which are not. In this episode, we explore: The real-world positive impact that a mission-driven bank can generate for communities, climate and nature; How balancing risk, return and impact shapes lending decisions in practice, and what that means for the bank’s governance and internal decision-making; And whether the model of values-led banking is truly scalable — or whether its greatest influence lies in demonstrating what is possible for the wider financial system. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Today’s Speaker Sian Williams is Chief Risk Officer at Triodos Bank UK, a mission-driven institution that seeks to balance profit with people and planet. With more than 30 years’ experience in finance, including senior risk and compliance roles at Lloyds Bank, and as a banking supervisor at the Bank of England and Financial Services Authority, she brings deep expertise across traditional banking, mission-driven finance and regulation. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/40298050

Protecting the Beta: Why Systemic Risk Now Shapes Investment Returns 02/12/2026

Protecting the Beta: Why Systemic Risk Now Shapes Investment Returns Hear from Julie Calkins, Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management, as we explore how interconnected risks spanning climate, nature, inequality and AI challenge traditional approaches to risk and return. In investing, we spend a lot of time debating alpha — what gives one portfolio an edge over another. But increasingly, the bigger question is about beta, and the underlying conditions that make any returns possible in the first place. And here we can think about a stable climate, nature as infrastructure and even social cohesion and functioning institutions. Because when those foundations erode, risk stops looking like a set of isolated exposures, and starts to look like something deeper – perhaps systemic instability, cascading impacts, and rising uncertainty that no single firm can diversify away. That’s why in this episode we explore: · Why some investors are starting to think more seriously about “protecting the beta”, and what that means for portfolio risk and long-term resilience; · How nature risk, climate risk, and inequality interact — with inequality not only as an outcome of shocks, but as a potential driver of fragility and political instability; · And the tools that can help risk professionals make complex, interconnected risks more legible from scenario modelling to frameworks that build a shared language inside organisations. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: ------------------ Speaker's Bio Julie Calkins, Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management Julie Calkins serves as the Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management since April 2022. Previously, Calkins operated as an Advisor for an independent consultancy firm, CDAX, managing projects for notable clients including the US Climate Alliance Partnership and OECD Global Science Forum from January 2017 to April 2022. Prior roles include Head of Climate Risk and Adaptation at Climate-KIC, a Research and Policy Fellow at Wellcome Trust, and a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Leeds/National Centre for Atmospheric Science. Calkins has also worked as a Monitoring Scientist for NOAA and an Antarctic Scientist for the US Antarctic Program. Academic credentials include a PhD in Environmental Science and Health from the University of York and an MS in Geochemistry from New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology. With a background spanning environmental science, disaster risk, and global policy, Julie brings a rare systems-level perspective to sustainable investing. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/40071730

What We Learned About Climate and Nature Risk in 2025 01/22/2026

What We Learned About Climate and Nature Risk in 2025 Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the past year of the Climate Risk Podcast. As we head into 2026, the GARP Climate Risk Podcast kicks off the new year with a retrospective on the past 12 months, reviewing the key themes and insights that emerged during 2025’s podcasts. After 6 years of hosting the podcast, this might be the most wide-ranging conversation so far – from how one should adjust probability of default for climate risk, to the risk factors that might lead to the collapse of society. To make things a bit more manageable, this retrospective has been split into three main areas of focus: First, what did we learn about physical risks, both from nature loss and climate change? Second, what did we learn about the transition to net zero? And third, what lessons were there for firms – either in risk management or business more generally? We also hear from our guests on advice they have specifically for risk professionals. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links to featured episodes: Sebastian Leape - Eva Zabey - Prof. Aled Jones - Dr. Levke Caesar - Alyssa Gilbert - Laurie Laybourn - Stephanie Race - Rowan Douglas - Dr. Ajay Gambhir - Hirotaka Hideshima - Prof. Tim Lenton OBE - Judson Berkey - Dr. Luke Kemp - Today’s Speakers Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of GARP. Set up in early 2018, the Institute works across all risk disciplines, with Jo’s focus to date on climate- and nature-related risk management and scenario analysis, stress testing and operational resilience. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK’s first concurrent stress test in 2014. She left the Bank in 2015 and joined HSBC as their Global Head of Stress Testing. She has also worked as an independent stress testing consultant, advising firms on how to get the most value out of stress testing. Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP’s research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate- and nature-related financial risk management.  She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD about how best to apply probability theory to real world problems. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/39783580

Societal Collapse in a Warming World: A Risk Manager’s Lens 12/11/2025

Societal Collapse in a Warming World: A Risk Manager’s Lens Hear from Dr. Luke Kemp of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, as we dive into the risk factors for societal collapse in both the past and future. When risk professionals talk about systemic risk, we usually mean markets, institutions, and interconnected exposures. But zoom out far enough, and there’s a bigger question underneath it all: what makes an entire society resilient – or vulnerable – to collapse? That’s why in this episode, we explore the history and future of societal collapse through a risk lens: looking at how complex systems fail, how multiple threats compound, and the early warning signs of collapse. We discuss: · What societal collapse actually means in practice, and why it’s rarely a single event, but a buildup of stresses and cascading failures; · How inequality amplifies fragility, weakening trust, institutions, and the capacity to respond when shocks hit; · And what a real-world “collapse risk dashboard” might look like for societies. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from the discussion: Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse - Speaker’s Bio Dr. Luke Kemp, Research Affiliate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge Luke researches the end of the world. He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. He has advised and led foresight studies for multiple international organisations, including the WHO and Convention on Biological Diversity. His work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, the New York Times, and the New Yorker. He is the author of the bestselling book Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/39355350

Embedding Nature Risk: Insights from a Senior Banking Professional 11/13/2025

Embedding Nature Risk: Insights from a Senior Banking Professional Hear from Judson Berkey, Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS, as we learn first-hand how banks are approaching nature risk. Within finance, nature is usually treated as background: important, but invisible. However, that is beginning to change. New frameworks, regulations, and expectations are emerging worldwide, and many firms are starting to measure their impacts and dependencies on nature. In this episode, we explore how that shift is happening from the perspective of someone inside one of the world’s largest banks. We discuss: Which lessons from climate disclosure apply to nature, and which do not; Why some regulatory approaches to ESG-type topics are more effective than others; and The importance of not waiting for perfect data before taking action. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Speaker’s Bio Judson Berkey, Managing Director, Chief Sustainability Office, UBS Judson is a Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS based in Zurich where he has worked since 2003 on global risk, regulatory and compliance topics. He currently focuses on sustainable finance policy and regulation including engagement with policymakers and standard setters. He also leads UBS work on nature. He graduated from Harvard Law School and the University of Virginia and is on the board of ECOFACT. He currently chairs the Institute of International Finance Sustainable Finance Working Group and represents UBS on the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures and Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero Steering Group. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/39006085

Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis 10/23/2025

Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis Hear from Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, as we explore the potential of positive tipping points in accelerating the transition to a net-zero economy. What happens when the conversation about climate change shifts from avoiding disaster to unlocking positive change? Suddenly, it’s not just about risk - it’s about momentum. Because while some systems may be close to dangerous tipping points, others – like clean energy, electric transport, and sustainable food – are tipping in the right direction. That’s why in this episode, we explore how to accelerate those positive shifts, including: · How smart policies can trigger widespread, self-reinforcing change across economies and societies; · Why leveraging social norms and human behavior is just as critical as investing in technology; · And what it takes to create the tipping points that move us toward a stable climate, not away from one. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Tim’s previous podcast appearance - Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis - Global Tipping Points Report 2025 - Speaker’s Bio Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, Founding Director, Global Systems Institute, and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science, University of Exeter Tim is the founding Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science. He has more than 25 years research experience, focused on modelling of the biosphere, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and associated tipping points. Tim is renowned for his work identifying climate tipping points, which informed the setting of the 1.5C climate target, associated net zero targets, and nationally determined contributions. Tim works with policymakers and businesses helping them assess the risks of climate change and nature loss and highlighting the opportunities for ‘positive tipping points’ that can accelerate change towards net zero. In 2023, Professor Lenton led a team of more than 200 people from over 90 organisations in 26 countries to produce an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. The ‘Global Tipping Points Report’ produced in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund was published at COP28. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/38753460

From Basel to Biodiversity: An Ex-Central Banker’s Take on Nature Risk 10/02/2025

From Basel to Biodiversity: An Ex-Central Banker’s Take on Nature Risk Hear from Hirotaka Hideshima, former central banker and member of the TNFD, as we explore the parallels between financial risk, nature risk and regulation. What happens when a central banker steps into the world of nature risk? Well, they can see parallels between financial risk and nature risk that aren’t obvious to others. For example, just as the global financial crisis exposed systemic vulnerabilities in banking, nature loss poses systemic risks that today’s models and disclosures struggle to capture. And although the Basel framework and the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) recommendations are very different, they do share one key underlying objective — that is, to internalize externalities that markets fail to price. In this episode, we explore what a 30-year career in financial regulation can tell us about nature risk, including: Why risk professionals must consider the long-term materiality of nature risk, even when short-term impacts may appear limited; Practical first steps for incorporating nature into credit risk processes and operational resilience planning; and The role of qualitative judgment when models cannot fully capture environmental externalities. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) homepage: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) homepage: World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report 2025: Speaker’s Bio Hirotaka Hideshima, Fellow, Global Intelligence & Sustainability Unit, Dai-ichi Life Holdings Before joining Dai-ichi Life, Hirotaka served as Counsellor on Global Strategy to the President and Board of Directors at the Norinchukin Bank, where he became actively involved in the work of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures. Hirotaka spent over 30 years at the Bank of Japan, where he represented the Bank on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, co-chaired the development of Basel III’s definition of regulatory capital, and helped design the G-SIB assessment framework. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/38424565

Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis 09/11/2025

Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis Hear from Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, as we reconsider systemic risk in an increasingly interconnected world. When we think about climate risk, it’s easy to focus on individual threats - rising sea levels, extreme weather events, or biodiversity loss. But in reality, these risks are part of a larger, interconnected web of crises. Climate change interacts with geopolitical tensions, pandemics, food insecurity, and energy shocks, often creating feedback loops that can strain or even break the systems we depend on. That’s why in this episode, we explore the concept of the “polycrisis,” including: · Why understanding the connections between risks is key to managing them; · How a new systemic risk framework can reveal vulnerabilities across critical systems like food, energy, and health; · And why addressing inequality is essential if we want to strengthen resilience and meet climate and sustainability goals. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: ASRA homepage: GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Alyssa Gilbert: GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Erica Thompson: Mike Berners-Lee, A Climate of Truth: A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis: Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: Cascade Institute homepage: Speaker’s Bio(s) Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment, ASRA The Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA) is an independent non-profit initiative that aims to mainstream systemic risk assessment in policy and decision-making. Ajay leads on ASRA's approach to assessing systemic risks, as well as identifying and curating supporting data, evidence and models. In addition to this role, Ajay is also a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at Imperial College London, where he previously worked on climate change mitigation, the energy transition and associated risks, leading a team on integrated assessment modelling of low-carbon development pathways. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/38156645

From the Archives: Revisiting the Tail Risks from Climate Change 08/21/2025

From the Archives: Revisiting the Tail Risks from Climate Change In this special episode, revisit this conversation with Prof. Tim Benton, as we remind ourselves of the devastating potential of the tail risks from climate change. Our regular listeners will know that we usually to take a break from the podcast in August. But every once in a while, in this fast-moving field of climate and sustainability, it’s helpful to pause and reflect on where we’ve been, what we’ve learned, and how far we’ve come. That’s why we’re re-releasing this episode from the archives, and revisiting a conversation that’s just as relevant today - if not more so - than when it first aired in late 2021. This conversation about the tail risks from climate change left a huge impression on us at the GARP Risk Institute. The framing of climate risk as non-linear, deeply complex, and capable of amplifying other risks from food insecurity to political instability, was enormously influential on the direction of this podcast. Today, where the window for an orderly transition is rapidly narrowing, it’s all the more important that we remember the extent of the risks posed by climate change. This episode explores: Why the risks associated with even 2.0◦C warming are greater than you might think; How climate risks are transmitted through, and amplified by, our interconnected economy; and How risk professionals can best prepare for the complex and unpredictable risks of climate change. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from the discussion: Climate change risk assessment 2021: Chatham House’s research publication detailing the consequences and systemic cascading risks likely from climate change - UK Climate Risk Independent Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report: The UK Climate Change Committee’s independent analysis of the risks and opportunities for the UK - Speaker’s Bio Tim Benton, Professor of Population Ecology, University of Leeds Tim’s research spans food security, sustainability, climate change, ecology, and systemic and interacting risks. Formerly, he was a Distinguished Fellow and Research Director at Chatham House, Environment and Society Centre, working on range of projects about how environmental risks interact with human systems. From 2011 to 2016, Tim was the ‘champion’ of the UK’s Global Food Security programme. He has also been a contributing author for the IPCC and has more than 150 published academic papers to his name. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/37874695

Resilience and Retreat: What Insurability Tells Us About Climate Risk 07/31/2025

Resilience and Retreat: What Insurability Tells Us About Climate Risk Hear from Rowan Douglas CBE, CEO of Climate Risk and Resilience at Howden Group, as we explore the vital role of insurance in the climate transition. When we talk about climate resilience, insurance often flies under the radar. But it’s one of the oldest and most powerful tools we have for managing risk: pooling resources, spreading losses, and crucially, sending signals about where risk is growing too great to bear. That’s why in this episode, we explore the vital and evolving role of insurance in supporting climate resilience. We discuss: How insurance acts as both a safety net for businesses and communities, and a driver of risk reduction and adaptation; The concept of “insurability,” and what it reveals about our growing exposure to climate risk; and How these dynamics are playing out in the real world, through a case study of climate risks facing Europe’s agricultural sector. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Ex-CEO of Allianz Investment Management Günther Thallinger - “The math breaks down” quote: GARP Natural Catastrophe Modelling Masterclass (for SCR® Certificate Holders): The Insurability Imperative: Using Insurance to Navigate the Climate Transition: Insurance and Risk Management Tools for Agriculture in the EU: Video summary of Insurance and Risk Management Tools for Agriculture in the EU report: Speaker’s Bio Rowan Douglas CBE, CEO Climate Risk and Resilience, Howden Group Prior to joining Howden, Rowan held a number of senior roles at Willis Towers Watson, including as Head of their Climate and Resilience Hub, and also at Willis Re, where he was CEO of Global Analytics. Until recently, he was also Chair of the Operating Committee of the Insurance Development Forum, a role he began in 2015, which focused on driving resilience in communities, business, and public institutions through insurance. Rowan holds a Bachelor’s in Geography from Durham University, and an MPhil in Geographical Sciences from the University of Bristol. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/37594855

Greening the Games: How Paris 2024 Delivered on Climate Ambition 07/10/2025

Greening the Games: How Paris 2024 Delivered on Climate Ambition Hear from Georgina Grenon, Director of Environmental Excellence for the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, as we explore what it truly means to put sustainability first. Turning climate ambition into reality is a complicated process. Sustainability often requires systemic change, which is precisely why it can be so challenging. That’s why in this episode, we’re hoping to inspire and encourage our audience with the story of the greening of one of the largest and most watched events in the world: the Olympic and Paralympic Games. We explore: How clear targets and innovative procurement strategies helped deliver on ambitious climate goals; Why systems-thinking and good governance were critical to aligning decisions with long-term objectives; And what risk professionals can learn from this experience to apply in their own organizations, particularly around resilience, efficiency, and driving change at scale. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Speaker’s Bio Georgina Grenon, Director of Environmental Excellence, Paris 2024 Organising Committee for the Olympic and Paralympic Games Georgina has had a long and varied career in energy and sustainability across the public and private sectors. She began her career in oil and gas, before moving into renewable energy and innovation. She worked at the French Ministry of Ecology and Energy, where she supported the development of renewable energy policies and markets. She later became a Director at ENGIE Group, a French multinational electric utility company, before joining the Organizing Committee of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2018. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/37331950

Why Food System Disruption Is the New Normal 06/19/2025

Why Food System Disruption Is the New Normal Hear from Stephanie Race, Founder & CEO of Earth Analytics Group, as we dive into the connections between physical climate risk, the global food supply chain, and systemic financial risk. As climate impacts intensify - from wildfires to water scarcity - these risks are no longer distant. They’re material, and they’re here to stay. This is most evident in our food system, where disrupted crop yields, shifting growing regions, and stressed supply chains are becoming the new normal. That’s why in this episode, we explore the vital and often overlooked links between climate change, food systems, and financial risk, including: How biophysical shocks like drought, fire, and flooding are cascading through supply chains and challenging economic stability; Why nature-based solutions are key to building real-world resilience - not just for farmers, but for the financial system as a whole; And how risk professionals can lead the transition by rethinking how we value, insure, and invest in a changing world. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Earth Analytics Group homepage: DEFRA Stewardship Schemes: USDA NRCS Stewardship Program: Speaker’s Bio Stephanie Race, Founder & CEO, Earth Analytics Group Earth Analytics Group is a global environmental informatics firm, helping businesses adapt by integrating nature into financial decision-making. Stephanie is a business leader, entrepreneur and scientist with over 30 years’ experience transforming global food and agriculture supply chains, and restoring ecosystems to balance nature, people and markets. She previously held a number of senior roles, including as Partner at Accenture, leading the Analytics Practice for Food, Consumer Products & Retail. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/37041710

Beyond 1.5°C: How to Think About Our New Climate Reality 05/29/2025

How to Make an Impact: Secrets to Climate Startup Success 05/08/2025

How to Make an Impact: Secrets to Climate Startup Success Hear from Alyssa Gilbert, Director of Innovation at the Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment, as we dive into the climate startup ecosystem. Innovation can provide powerful responses to environmental risks, from AI tools predicting the spread of wildfires in real time, to seaweed-based packaging replacing plastic at mass scale. But in fact, innovation means more than just inventing new technologies – it also means changing the ways we do business today, and helping connect these solutions with the people who can best make use of them. That’s why in today’s episode, we’re diving into the climate innovation ecosystem. We explore: The challenges and opportunities for early-stage climate startups, from scaling to securing investment; How business model innovation is just as crucial as new technology in creating real-world impact; and What risk professionals can do to engage with, and support, climate innovators. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment: Undaunted: Notpla - Sustainable Packaging Made from Seaweed: Speaker’s Bio Alyssa Gilbert, Director of Innovation, Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London Alyssa leads a team focused on developing research, innovations, and talent to address environmental challenges. Alyssa played a key role in setting up the COP26 Universities Network to tackle climate change. Previously, she worked in policy design and evaluation services at Ecofys, covering areas like emissions trading, carbon pricing, and climate finance. Alyssa has extensive experience working on environmental and climate change issues in various countries and has a background in journalism and research. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/36482390

Nine Limits, Six Breached: The Planetary Boundaries Crisis Explained 04/17/2025

Nine Limits, Six Breached: The Planetary Boundaries Crisis Explained Hear from Dr. Levke Caeser of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, as we dive into the planetary boundaries framework and the risks of overstepping the limits of earth systems. Planetary boundaries are the biological and physical limits that define a “safe operating space” for humanity on Earth. But today, many of these limits – including those related to land, freshwater, climate, and biodiversity – have been dangerously exceeded. As a result, we’re now entering uncharted territory. So in today’s episode, we’ll be exploring the consequences of breaching these limits, and how we might get ourselves back on track. We’ll discuss: The science and selection process behind the planetary boundaries framework; Why we have failed to govern these global risks; and What actions can now be taken to correct our course and mitigate the risks. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK): PIK Planetary Boundaries Science Lab: Climate Tipping Points Explained: Speaker’s Bio(s) Dr. Levke Caeser, Co-Lead for Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Levke is a climate scientist specializing in Earth system dynamics and planetary boundaries science. Her work focuses on understanding the impacts of human activities on global systems, with a particular emphasis on ocean circulation, climate tipping points, and sustainability. Dr. Caesar is co-leading the Planetary Boundaries Science team (PBScience), contributing to advancing the representation of Earth's systems in global frameworks. She combines expertise in data analysis, interdisciplinary collaboration, and science communication to drive impactful research and foster innovative solutions for global environmental challenges. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/36125000

Flawed Models, Fragile Systems: The Risks in Energy & Food Policy 03/27/2025

Flawed Models, Fragile Systems: The Risks in Energy & Food Policy Hear from Prof. Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, as we dive into the role of models in shaping policy, and particularly their weaknesses. Models are not neutral – they reflect the assumptions, values, and agendas of those that create and use them. Using the energy system as an example, models can (and have been) used to protect the status quo. In part, this is because many of the models are based on the notions of ‘equilibrium’ and so they simply can’t cope with major structural changes, such as the current energy transition. But it can be difficult for policy makers to switch towards models that are arguably more suited to the job. So, what can we do to supplement the models? One very effective approach is to adopt a structured process of expert elicitation, where we use the insights of experts to uncover vulnerabilities and risks. To bring it to life, we explore how this has worked in the case of the food system. We discuss: The role that models play in shaping energy policy, and how they can lead us astray; How expert judgment and insight can help address model blind spots; and Finally, what are the key lessons for risk professionals? To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Global Sustainability Institute homepage: Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Planetary Solvency Report: GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Erica Thompson: Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. Aled Jones, Director, Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University Aled’s work in climate finance was recognised by California and he has received a key to the city of North Little Rock, USA. He is a Co-Investigator on the ESRC Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, the AHRC Debating Nature’s Value network, the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition project and leads the BBSRC Backcasting to Achieve Food Resilience in the UK project. He was lead author on the seminal report on resource constraints to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in 2013, was made an Honorary Fellow in 2018 and currently chairs their Biodiversity Working Party. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/35866565

Beyond Climate: A Risk Professionals’ Guide to the Biodiversity COPs 03/06/2025

Beyond Climate: A Risk Professionals’ Guide to the Biodiversity COPs Hear from Eva Zabey, CEO of Business for Nature, as we dive into the complex landscape of environmental diplomacy, and the role of business in halting and reversing biodiversity loss. We know that our economies depend on nature. But with biodiversity loss and climate change both putting pressure on ecosystems, businesses and financial institutions are facing increasing risks. In recognition of this, there is action on the policy front, and with global biodiversity agreements taking shape, the question isn’t whether firms should act – but how they can do so effectively. That’s why in this episode, we dive into the role of business and finance in halting and reversing biodiversity loss, along with some practical steps firms can take to integrate nature into their strategies. We discuss: The evolving policy landscape, including key takeaways from recent biodiversity COPs; The challenges financial firms face in measuring their impacts and dependencies on nature; and The tools and frameworks that can help firms take action. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Business for Nature: Nigel Topping on the GARP Climate Risk Podcast: Global Biodiversity Framework: Science Based Targets Network (SBTN): Nature Action 100: Finance for Biodiversity Foundation: Speaker’s Bio(s) Eva Zabey, CEO, Business for Nature Eva leads Business for Nature, a global coalition aiming to unify the business voice to call for action to reverse nature loss and restore the planet’s vital natural systems on which economies, wellbeing and prosperity depend. Previously, Eva led multiple projects at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) for 15 years, including leading work on natural, social and human capital measurement, valuation for business decision-making towards integrated performance management, and reporting for investors. She led the development of the Natural Capital Protocol on behalf of the Natural Capital Coalition, as well as the establishment of the new Social and Human Capital Coalition. Eva holds a bachelor’s degree in Ecology from Imperial College London and a master’s degree in Environmental Management from the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL). In 2012, she completed a University of London on-line course on Environmental Valuation Techniques and delivered a TEDx Talk on valuing nature in business. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/35542175

The CSRD Effect: How Regulation is Elevating Nature Risk 02/13/2025

What We Learned About Climate and Nature Risk in 2024 01/23/2025

What We Learned About Climate and Nature Risk in 2024 Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the latest season of the Climate Risk Podcast. As we head into 2025, the GARP Climate Risk Podcast kicks off the new year with a retrospective on the past 12 months, reviewing the key themes and insights that emerged during 2024. From soil scientists to policymakers, financial experts to climate modelers, we’ve welcomed a diverse range of guests to share their expertise. This episode revisits some of the key learnings from these conversations and highlights the invaluable advice our guests have shared with risk professionals as we navigate the path to a net-zero and nature-positive future. Today’s episode will delve into: Why we need to think about climate and nature together What we learned about the transition to net zero The potential global temperature increases we face The modelling underpinning all these insights To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Speaker’s Bio(s) Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of GARP. Set up in early 2018, the Institute works across all risk disciplines, with Jo’s focus to date on climate risk management and scenario analysis, stress testing and operational resilience. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK’s first concurrent stress test in 2014. She left the Bank in 2015 and joined HSBC as their Global Head of Stress Testing. She has also worked as an independent stress testing consultant, advising firms on how to get the most value out of stress testing. Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP’s research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate financial risk management. She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD characterizing how best to apply probability theory to real world problems. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/34948515

Modelling Economic Complexity: Insights for Risk Professionals 12/19/2024

Modelling Economic Complexity: Insights for Risk Professionals Hear from Prof. J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford, as we explore new modelling approaches designed to better capture the complex and chaotic nature of our climate and economy. We spend a lot of time on this podcast covering the transition to a low carbon economy, which will be driven largely by policies and technological innovation. These policies tend to be based on insights from economics. And our view on the pace of innovation is often informed by expert judgement. But traditional economic models often oversimplify the world, leading to poor policy design. And we tend to underestimate the exponential rate of technological change, making us unduly pessimistic about the transition. Today’s guest has thought a great deal about both these issues. That’s why in today’s episode we’ll be diving into the world of complexity economics and agent-based modelling, which can help us better navigate the risks and opportunities associated with the transition. We’ll discuss: How agent-based models are very well suited to modelling complex, non-linear systems, such as the economy; How past innovation cycles can provide invaluable insights on what we might expect to see in the transition; and What the models tell us about the appropriate speed of the transition to a net zero world. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: Links from today’s discussion: Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World: Santa Fe Institute’s Office of Applied Complexity: GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Simon Sharpe: GARP Climate Risk Podcast with David Stainforth: Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Complex Systems Science, University of Oxford J. Doyne Farmer is Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. His current research is in economics, including agent-based modelling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette. /episode/index/show/climaterisk/id/34410345

Climate Risk Podcast

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