I'm Losing Contracts to AI. Here's Why That's Actually Good News

I'm losing software contracts right now, and I want to tell you why. Business owners who would've paid me $10,000 to build them something are telling me they'll just build it themselves with AI. That sounds like bad news for a guy who makes his living writing software, but in this episode I get into why I actually think it's a gift, and what it's telling me about where the real opportunity is heading.

I break down the pricing models I think are dead and the ones I think are about to take off. I talk about why selling software to businesses for $500 a month is a much harder game than it used to be, and why selling to regular people for $5 a month might be where the real money is hiding over the next five years. I also get into why paid advertising falls apart at those low price points, and what you have to do instead.

I share the actual marketing plan I'm using for the app I'm building right now (it starts with my neighborhood group chat), why I think your wife or your neighbor is probably a better customer than a business owner, and the one metric you should be watching instead of listening to what your friends say about your product. If you've been sitting on a software idea and wondering whether it's worth building, this one's for you.

Topics covered:

• Why business owners are canceling software subscriptions and building their own with AI
• The pricing model I think is dead, and the two replacing it
• Why selling software to businesses is suddenly a much harder game
• The consumer market opportunity that was a bad bet for years and is suddenly wide open
• Why paid advertising falls apart at $5 a month price points
• How virality can replace advertising when your product actually solves a real problem
• The baby sleep app thought experiment that explains consumer virality
• My actual marketing plan for the app I'm building (hint: it starts at school pickup)
• Why you should never trust your friends' compliments about your product
• The one metric that matters more than anything anyone says out loud

Chapters:

00:00 Intro
00:25 Why I'm losing contracts to AI
05:16 How to compete on extreme automation
07:17 Charging by outcome instead of per-seat
14:29 The case for consumer software over business software
27:40 Why paid ads won't save a $5-a-month product
32:18 Virality: how the right product markets itself
38:40 My actual marketing plan (starting with my neighborhood)
46:37 Build apps you actually use yourself
49:27 Don't trust compliments, watch the usage data

Questions or thoughts? Email me at [e-mail]