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#219 Dr. Josh Segal on Are We Losing the War? Lethality, Deterrence, and Information

The Cognitive Crucible

Release Date: 03/25/2025

#245 Pat Roberson and Andrew Hallman on Arms and Influence: How information and influence operations are evolving in the modern security environment – and how the United States can regain the advantage show art #245 Pat Roberson and Andrew Hallman on Arms and Influence: How information and influence operations are evolving in the modern security environment – and how the United States can regain the advantage

The Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Andrew Hallman and Pat Roberson from Leidos discuss information operations (IO) and influence warfare in the modern security environment. Adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran are using information campaigns to challenge U.S. dominance, targeting both American homeland audiences...

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#241 Andy Whiskeyman on Cognitive Intelligence show art #241 Andy Whiskeyman on Cognitive Intelligence

The Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Andrew Whiskeyman discusses his co-authored article: . "COGINT" is the systematic mapping, safeguarding, and operational exploitation of decision-making architectures in the contemporary cognitive battle space. Topics include: understanding and protecting human decision-making...

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#242 Doug Wilbur on Propaganda show art #242 Doug Wilbur on Propaganda

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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Doug Wilbur discussed propaganda, information warfare, and strategic optimism–emphasizing society's capability for problem-solving. He defined propaganda as any communication intended to influence behavior in the propagandist's favor, distinguishing it from persuasion. Wilbur...

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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Doug Abdiel discusses the vivid operational problem of GPS-denied or GPS-degraded environments and how is helping operators cut through the fog of modern warfare. Recording Date: 16 Feb 2026 Research Question: Doug Abdiel suggests an interested student or researcher examine the...

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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Sean Guillory discusses the rapid ascent of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi which are transforming global events into tradable assets. Recording Date: 23 Feb 2026 Research Question: Sean Guillory suggests an interested student or researcher examine:  How...

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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Anthony Vinci, author of , discusses how the battlefield has shifted from physical territory to the human brain. From China’s influence within U.S. education and gaming to the subtle "mind hacking" potential of AI-generated misinformation, Anthony breaks down the strategic...

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#239 Ian Brown on Snowmobiles and Grand Ideals show art #239 Ian Brown on Snowmobiles and Grand Ideals

The Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. John Boyd is well known to have formally written down very little of his own theories on war and conflict, making researching his concepts challenging and leading many to infer meanings based on their own interpretations—or others’—of what little easily accessible evidence of his thinking remains....

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#238 Bill Wall on AI in Information Operations show art #238 Bill Wall on AI in Information Operations

The Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Bill Wall discusses ’s comprehensive AI platform. The conversation explores the necessity for the U.S. to balance military focus with information strategies, diplomacy, and a deeper understanding of the populace to achieve success in modern conflicts. Recording Date: 9 Dec 2025...

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#237 Josh “Bugsy” Segal on Ukraine, Electronic Warfare, and Fast Battlefield Innovation show art #237 Josh “Bugsy” Segal on Ukraine, Electronic Warfare, and Fast Battlefield Innovation

The Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Dr. Josh “Bugsy” Segal recaps his recent observations from the Ukraine battlefield and concerns for Western governments which don’t adapt quickly. Ukraine's rapid development of sophisticated, cost-effective domestic defense technology, including advanced counter-drone...

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#236 Michael Lissack on Anticipatory Agents show art #236 Michael Lissack on Anticipatory Agents

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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Michael Lissack discusses –a unified theoretical framework that reconciles Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), Robert Rosen's theory of Anticipatory Systems, the causal bubbles interpretation of quantum mechanics, and pragmatic constructivism through Hans Vaihinger's philosophy of 'as...

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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.

During this episode, Dr. Josh “Bugsy” Segal asks the provocative question: Are We Losing the War? Josh discusses the importance of understanding the impact of the nation's investments in soft power assets and programs, emphasizing the need for a strategic approach and a broader national security context. He expresses concerns about the challenges in reaching the desired audience for information operations and the need for the US to adapt and innovate in the face of increasing influence from China and Russia. Lastly, the discussion touches on the current administration's agenda of cutting costs, the threat posed by adversaries, and the importance of nurturing relationships–particularly in the context of disinformation and subversive narratives.

Recording Date: 19 Feb 2025

Resources:

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio

Dr. Joshua “Bugsy” Segal is the Co-Founder & Vice President for Strategy and Innovation at Deft9 Solutions. A veteran of over 30 years in national security policy, strategy and operations, and intelligence, both military and civilian, Dr. Segal is an internationally recognized expert in arms control, countering foreign malign influence, and counter-WMD. Dr. Segal spent over a decade as a member of U.S. multilateral arms control delegations in Geneva, Vienna, and The Hague, including the negotiations to finalize the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention and establish the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. After leaving the federal government and then retiring from the military, Dr. Segal serves as an advisor to senior DoD leaders on operations in the information environment and teaches OSINT tradecraft.

About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.