333: Freddie Mac Economist Reveals Connection with Mortgage Debt & GDP; What Every Homeowner Must Know!
Release Date: 01/08/2024
352: You Won't Believe How Trump's Policy Affects Your Wallet with Prof. David Collum
The Commercial Investing Show
Is Trump's America First policy the solution to the rising inflation in the US? Today, we dive into the details of Trump's economic approach and examine whether his America First policy is effective in combating inflation. From tariffs on foreign goods to tax cuts, we analyze the impact of Trump's policies on the US economy and explore whether they are helping to reduce inflation. Join Jason and Prof. David Collum as they explore the complexities of Trump's America First policy and its effects on the US economy. https://x.com/DavidBCollum #EmpoweredInvesting #RealEstateInvesting...
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351: Let's Talk Money: Real-World Financial Advice with Megan Gorman, Author of All the Presidents' Money: How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money
The Commercial Investing Show
Megan Gorman, author of "All the President's Money," explores the financial habits of US presidents throughout history. Gorman, a financial advisor, tax attorney, and wealth manager, discusses the presidents' varying approaches to money management, from frugal to extravagant. She also explores the historical context of each president's financial decisions and draws parallels to modern-day financial challenges. The interview offers valuable insights into financial literacy and wealth building, emphasizing the importance of discipline, risk-taking, and long-term planning. #AllThePresidentsMoney...
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350: Unpacking the Culture War, Gender Roles and Social Responsibility in History with Curt Doolittle
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason Hartman welcomes Curt Doolittle, founder of the Natural Law Institute, referred by previous guest Rudyard Lynch. Doolittle, an expert on Culture War economics and historical contexts, discusses the transformation of cultures over time. He explains the cyclical nature of societal changes, using historical examples like the Greek and Roman impact on the Middle East and the Industrial Revolution's social shifts. Doolittle highlights the challenges and resistances faced by societies in adapting to new responsibilities and the role of law, religion, and state in shaping civilizations. The...
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349: The Collapse of the Dollar's Empire and @MilkshakesPod with Brent Johnson
The Commercial Investing Show
The Dollar Milkshake Theory, proposed by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, predicts a surge in the US dollar's value compared to other currencies. This is due to the US's strong financial system, deep markets, and the dominance of the dollar in global transactions, like oil purchases. When a global debt crisis strikes, countries will scramble for dollars to pay off their debts, further boosting the dollar's value. This could lead to a "dollar milkshake effect" where money flows heavily into the US, inflating asset prices there. They also explore Modern Monetary Theory's role in this scenario,...
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348: Digital Currencies & Gov't Control: Navigating Privacy in a Cashless World & Building Resilient Financial Strategies with Catherine Austin Fitts
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason welcomes Catherine Austin Fitts, of the Solari Report back to his show after nearly eight years. Catherine, served as Assistant Secretary of Housing under George H.W. Bush. They discuss the disappearance of trillions of dollars from federal budgets, starting in the mid-90s and escalating over the years. By 2001, $4 trillion was unaccounted for, rising to $21 trillion by 2015. Catherine reveals systemic financial mismanagement and secrecy within the U.S. government, emphasizing the impact on inflation and economic control. She highlights the need for property owners to navigate this...
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347: Market Dynamics: Inventory, Interest Rates, and Buyer Behavior with Sean O'Toole of Property Radar
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason and Sean O'Toole of PropertyRadar.com discuss the current state of the real estate market, focusing on inventory trends, the impact of high interest rates, and the value of real estate over price. They also explore the potential for price drops, the influence of technological advancements on prices, and the challenges of rising housing costs. Lastly, they examine the activities of wholesalers in the real estate market and the ongoing issue of foreclosures, with Sean providing insights on his company's data tracking system and the shift in the market due to a scarcity of available...
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346: Data Reveals Why the Housing Market is Robust | Mike Simonsen @AltosResearch
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason welcomes Mike Simonsen of Altos Research. Mike discusses real estate trends, noting increased inventory leading to higher sales. Despite higher mortgage rates, demand persists, with 2.8 to 7.7 million more buyers qualifying as rates drop. This surge could strain inventory, creating a competitive market. Simonsen emphasizes the need for sustained higher rates to restore pre-pandemic inventory levels. Jason Hartman underscores the market's importance for the broader economy, highlighting the stimulus from home purchases. Both foresee continued demand, especially if rates decrease, but...
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345: Navigating the Dollar Hegemony: Understanding Global Finance Today with with Saleha Mohsin
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason introduces Sahala Moshsin and her book "Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order" and discusses the impact of economic sanctions, particularly those imposed on Russia. They also explore the challenges faced by countries trying to work around the US dollar's global dominance, the mounting debt and its implications for the country's future, and the negative impacts of US currency policy on globalization. Lastly, Saleha discusses the current social and economic upheavals and the importance of understanding the economy through a currency lens....
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344: Behind the Numbers: Insights from Institutional Players on Real Estate Trends with Lance Lambert Part 2
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason and Lance Lambert finish their discussion as they explore the "lock-in effect" caused by historically low mortgage rates. They highlight the significant impact on home sales and turnover rates in the real estate market, with a 57% reduction in home sales due to fixed-rate mortgage holders unwilling to give up their low-interest loans. They also touch on the multifamily housing market's influence on single-family rentals, noting that while rent increases have moderated, they remain solid. Data from Zillow and institutional players like Invitation Homes and American Homes for Rent provide...
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343: Navigating the Tight Resale Market: Lance Lambert's Expert Analysis on Housing Supply Dynamics Part 1
The Commercial Investing Show
Lance Lambert, co-founder of Resi Club, discusses the real estate market's nuances with host Jason Hartman. Lambert highlights the tight resale market, down 30-35% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019, noting that despite this, 2019 wasn't a buyer's market. Affordability strains persist, especially in areas like Connecticut, impacted by the "donut effect" from pandemic migration. Lambert emphasizes builders' resilience, adjusting home sizes and finishes to tackle affordability while maintaining profit margins. He anticipates a shift towards smaller homes due to changing demographics. Despite...
info_outlineJason talks about the importance of understanding the relationship between household real estate value, mortgage debt, and GDP. The presented chart indicates increased equity and decreased mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP, highlighting a more stable housing market. He touches on the benefits of leveraging properties and he analyzes a chart on median sold prices based on bedroom count, revealing significant appreciation in lower-priced properties.
Jason welcomes Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, as they discuss the current state of the real estate market. Despite concerns about rising interest rates, Kiefer highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, emphasizing the stability of the housing market throughout 2023. While acknowledging a potential slowdown in consumer spending due to higher rates, Kiefer pointed out that the housing market has seen low transaction volumes and reduced refinance activity, impacting affordability. He also discussed the unique situation of homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates, estimating the value of their locked-in rates at around $55,000 per borrower. Kiefer predicted a gradual thawing of the market as consumers adapt to the new interest rate environment. He also underscored the importance of considering broader economic factors and demographic trends in understanding the housing market’s dynamics.
#RealEstate #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook #Millennials #HousingMarket #RealEstate #EconomicAnalysis
Key Takeaways:
Jason’s editorial
1:28 Introducing Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
1:46 Chart: Household real estate value and mortgage debt as percent of GDP
4:43 FireYourManager.com
5:41 RocketHomes Chart: Median sold price by bedroom count
Len Kiefer interview
8:33 The view from 30,000 feet
11:24 Charts: Spike in mortgage rates made it very expensive for homeowners to move
13:25 Chart: Historically low rates in previous years means there is no Refi incentive given today’s rates
14:47 Chart: Homeowners locked into low mortgage rates are content to remain in their current homes
20:53 Market is starting to thaw
22:34 Chart: Due to savings from fixed mortgages, household spending may be less sensitive to financial conditions
27:30 Chart: Housing demand robust on favorable Age demographics of FTHBs
31:53 Chart: The U.S. faces a massive undersupply of housing
34:40 Chart: Strong demand from FTHBs and low supply led to a surge in entry-level home prices
38:32 Higher housing costs are contributing to more young adults living at home with their parents
For more information visit https://www.freddiemac.com/research
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