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BIGGEST RISK with Lee Fjord

Commercial Real Estate Pro Network

Release Date: 05/05/2020

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J Darrin Gross: I'd like to ask you, Rob Finlay, what is the BIGGEST RISK?   Rob Finlay: So not sure if there's one specific one and just so you know, hopefully, I I can give you one right now, that is top of mind for me, right? Because insurances. Property Insurance is property insurance that has been spoken about and and fortunately, we have people like you that help us, real estate owners get through that through that mess. The one thing that that property insurance people aren't going to help us with is what I see as this great risk is compliance and corporate risk. There is this...

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J Darrin Gross I'd like to ask you, Neal Bawa, what is the BIGGST RISK?   Neal Bawa So I'll give you two risks that affect insurance prices, and all other forms of prices in the United States. So one is a bigger, sort of more, you know, overarching risk. The second one is, is well known to us this. So the first one is climate change, we are continuing to see devastating impacts of climate change in many markets. It is a political, you know, issue where, you know, half of America doesn't want to acknowledge what is happening in markets like Florida and Texas and many other markets, like...

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J Darrin Gross: I'd like to ask you, DJ McClure. What is the BIGGEST RISK?   DJ McClure: I think right now, one of the BIGGEST RISK that I see among many is the number of properties that are, you know, approaching a debt restructure, you know, there's a lot of short term bridge that for a lot of properties that's coming due. And so one or two things are going to happen, obviously, they're going to be able to, if they're able to put together the funds to structure a refinance, you know, it's likely going to be into a different loan structure or excuse me a loan program, predominantly, your...

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J Darrin Gross:  I'd like to ask you, Joey Klein, what is the biggest risk?    Joe Kline: Sure. I don't have an insurance related answer. So that's, that's good. I have to say, I do think that your industry is a very fascinating one. And I think if we had more time, I'd love to throw some of these back at you. Because insurance is a very rapidly changing industry over the past couple of years as well. I look, I think that any Anyone, anyone who makes their money solely via Commission has to constantly be thinking about risk. And if you're not, you probably won't be doing it for...

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J Darrin Gross  0:00   And I'd like to ask you, Jeremy Friedman, what is the BIGGEST RISK?    Jeremy Friedman  0:05   But as we discussed before the call, that's actually the one largest risk item that we that does keep us up at night and that we're working diligently on at the moment is our insurance. And I think it's so this is not to be clear to your listeners, you did not prompt me for that at all this is this is our biggest risk at the moment, as we see it. We being located on the coast, the Gulf Coast of Alabama, and we have several coastal...

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Lee Fjord, what is the BIGGEST RISK?

 

Lee Fjord  

I would say the BIGGEST RISK in our business in this business of commercial multifamily is is interest rate risk. I think right now. We are at a wonderful place in time and economy with respect to our ability to get low interest rate loans with very, you know, high value to purchase or low downpayment purchase properties, low interest rates, and I think that you know, cap rates in the valuation of commercial property is directly associated with those. So, if you know, if interest rates rise to eight to 10%, then which they have been in the past before, then we're and your loan comes due, then the cap rate on your property is going to increase which is going to decrease the value of your property and you're going to be in a hard place. So, I try to mitigate that by first of all as quickly as possible, I try to return the initial investment back to all the investors, first of all, and then whether it be through cash flow distributions or refinancing the property so that removes their initial investment into the property and after that, Everything should be, you know, should be considered, you know returns. 

 

So after that, so that's my number one goal. So, I try to remove the risk by removing their initial, you know capital from the deal then we try to refinance our deals into long term debt options 10 years if possible or longer at the lowest possible interest rate, of course, and then you can offset that risk by either having a higher higher down payment or, you know, loan to value ratios, you can take out loans, and as opposed to 15% or 85% loan to value you can do you know, 75% loan to value leave a little bit more money on the table. And, you know, those are really the, and then also, I guess the last and final option for that, that you can remove risk is by putting your properties under non recourse to So then you're removing the potential risk of having any other assets that you as a, an owner or partner or an investor on a deal for potential loss if the property were to, at one point in time be, you know, faced with a, you know, needing to be repositioned or refinanced during the worst of times, then the end of the day, the worst thing that can happen to you at that point, if it's a non recourse property, or non recourse debt is the bank will take the property from you. 

They can't seize your personal income, they can't seize your personal home, they can't go after your retirement accounts. So that's our goal. Our goal is to return the initial investment back to our partners and investors as quickly as possible and refinance into a long term debt solution at the lowest possible interest rate. That is As a non recourse loan