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BIGGEST RISK with Lee Fjord

Commercial Real Estate Pro Network

Release Date: 05/05/2020

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 J Darrin Gross If you're willing, I'd like to ask you, Ashley Garner, what is the BIGGEST RISK?   Ashley Garner I think the biggest risk is to be under capitalized and and ultimately, you know, a property can go up in value, or the the P and L can show a profit, but if you don't have enough cash flow to pay the bills or make the repairs that you need to make, or make the improvements you need to make, then you you're in a tight spot, and that puts everything at risk, and that's an avoidable risk to not be under capitalized. But the temptation is so great a lot of times to say, I'm...

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J Darrin Gross I'd like to ask you. Kenny Bedwell, what is the BIGGEST RISK?   Kenny Bedwell So you know, I the biggest risk. I think that this the answer I was going to give you originally, and I kind of talked about it, so I'll move on from it, but it's regulation. Regulation changes. You're in trouble that is a huge risk to any investment. But the risk that I don't really hear often talked about. In our space is actually safety, guest safety. So I'll give you a stat. This is a real stat by there's a there's a guy Justin Ford, he's a safety expert in a short term rental space, and...

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J Darrin Gross If you're willing, I'd like to ask you, Joe downs, what is the BIGGEST RISK?   Joe Downs To me, it's, I'll give you, I'll give you, all right, you just want the biggest I'm gonna go right to base. To me, it's change. It's sort of what I just alluded to, if we were, if, if we still thought, because we weren't out there interviewing and investigating other third party management companies. If we refuse to do all that and just head in the sand, we would probably start falling behind other storage facilities, other competitors, who are managing their facilities better than we...

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J Darrin Gross If you're willing, I'd like to ask you, Peter Roisman, what is the BIGGEST RISK?   Peter Roisman Well, the biggest risk, in my mind, for besides physical property itself, is the occupancy and and and the rental rates. So if you have an underperforming leasing team. And your occupancy drops into the 80s, you know. And at one point, 15% of the properties in Houston were under 85% you're at risk. That is, that is a high risk, too. So in to flip that, to address that risk, you have to be high performing at leasing, which, which means you're not at risk at all. You're lowering...

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J Darrin Gross And so if you're willing, I'd like to ask you. Brent Kessler, what is the biggest risk?   Brent Kessler Yeah, well, let me answer it a couple different ways on there. But so as far as a risk, okay, as far as in our business, and what we do when you have this type of policy, I tell people all the time, there is no risk at all, because nobody's ever lost money in a whole life insurance policy. But then I stop, and I say, wait a minute, there is one risk. The risk is you, the risk is you the client and how you use the policy. So you're the only one that can screw this up. You...

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Lee Fjord, what is the BIGGEST RISK?

 

Lee Fjord  

I would say the BIGGEST RISK in our business in this business of commercial multifamily is is interest rate risk. I think right now. We are at a wonderful place in time and economy with respect to our ability to get low interest rate loans with very, you know, high value to purchase or low downpayment purchase properties, low interest rates, and I think that you know, cap rates in the valuation of commercial property is directly associated with those. So, if you know, if interest rates rise to eight to 10%, then which they have been in the past before, then we're and your loan comes due, then the cap rate on your property is going to increase which is going to decrease the value of your property and you're going to be in a hard place. So, I try to mitigate that by first of all as quickly as possible, I try to return the initial investment back to all the investors, first of all, and then whether it be through cash flow distributions or refinancing the property so that removes their initial investment into the property and after that, Everything should be, you know, should be considered, you know returns. 

 

So after that, so that's my number one goal. So, I try to remove the risk by removing their initial, you know capital from the deal then we try to refinance our deals into long term debt options 10 years if possible or longer at the lowest possible interest rate, of course, and then you can offset that risk by either having a higher higher down payment or, you know, loan to value ratios, you can take out loans, and as opposed to 15% or 85% loan to value you can do you know, 75% loan to value leave a little bit more money on the table. And, you know, those are really the, and then also, I guess the last and final option for that, that you can remove risk is by putting your properties under non recourse to So then you're removing the potential risk of having any other assets that you as a, an owner or partner or an investor on a deal for potential loss if the property were to, at one point in time be, you know, faced with a, you know, needing to be repositioned or refinanced during the worst of times, then the end of the day, the worst thing that can happen to you at that point, if it's a non recourse property, or non recourse debt is the bank will take the property from you. 

They can't seize your personal income, they can't seize your personal home, they can't go after your retirement accounts. So that's our goal. Our goal is to return the initial investment back to our partners and investors as quickly as possible and refinance into a long term debt solution at the lowest possible interest rate. That is As a non recourse loan