196 - Welcome to 2025. Fourth Turning. Debates over immigration, Elon supporting AFD, MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) and more!

If understanding history feels like an abstract puzzle, it’s time to see the patterns. In this episode I’m going into the concept of cycles and seasons, how history, businesses and our personal lives follow predictable patterns. We’ll cover the lessons from The Fourth Turning, generational values, and why knowing these cycles reduces anxiety and uncertainty. You’ll also hear about the current “winter” of society, what it means for businesses and individuals and how to prepare for the “spring” that’s coming. I also discuss the practical power of pattern recognition to get a clearer view of the world.

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Today's episode:

[00:52] There have been so many events happening. Welcome to 2025!

[02:35] I started researching how all of these events are somehow connected. I'm going to do a series of podcasts about cycles or seasons or what we would call pattern recognition. History, human life, and business is cyclical.

[03:17] Understanding patterns and the phase that we are in removes anxiety.

[04:13] Luigi Mangione grew up in a wealthy family and was very successful in school. He suddenly disconnected from everything and then killed the insurance CEO.

[05:05] We learned that Luigi hated capitalism and felt like life wasn't fair.

[06:08] He was born into wealth and never needed money or went through difficulties. He never learned resiliency. He just jumped from a happy childhood into college where everyone is a victim. He skipped several necessary development phases that adults normally go through.

[07:34] According to Tony Robbins, to mature and become an adult people have to go through certain phases.

[09:12] Elon and Vivek are arguing that H1-B Visas are needed to attract talent and people with strong work ethics.

[10:59] People and the companies should have a right to choose where they work and who they hire.

[11:53] Humans and history go through cycles. For simplicity's sake, we'll call it spring, summer, fall, and winter.

[12:05] Spring is when everyone is optimistic and there's a lot of ideas. Summer is the testing time. Fall is where you reap the rewards and benefits. Winter is when there is crisis and conflict.

[14:36] Humans also have these cycles.

[15:25] Gen X is practical and financially motivated.

[16:43] Millennials are the generation of heroes and they are very value and community-oriented.

[17:26] Gen Z are the kids who are protected from the crisis. They are kind, caring, and nuanced.

[18:14] You can't expect generational values to change quickly.

[19:52] Elon and Vivek are very meritocracy-oriented and very much for results and achievements.

[20:08] Traditional European politicians defend different values. Institutions and social consensus are important. These values don't correlate with the cycle we are in.

[21:30] We are currently in the winter cycle. This is the time of ending so new things can grow up.

[23:10] Think about where you are in your life in terms of your season.

[24:11] Why do we need winter? Why do we need a crisis?

[25:03] Winter forces us to change because otherwise we wouldn't. We are almost at the end of this winter cycle and there are signs that spring is just around the corner.

[26:01] Pattern recognition and cycles can also be applied for businesses and for regulations and industries.

 

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• The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny

• "Why Luigi Mangione Snapped" - Tony Robbins EXPLAINS The Psychology Behind UnitedHealthcare Murder