#118 - Trump 2.0 What Can We Expect
Daybreak with Anton
Looking back at Trump’s first term offers insights into potential market impacts of his second. In 2016, markets rallied after his election, while 2024 has seen sustained growth and investor confidence regardless of the outcome. Key sectors—small caps, consumer discretionary, finance, and energy—are showing strong performance, with tech once again poised for growth.
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#117 - Labor Costs Continue to Rise as Inflation Slows
Daybreak with Anton
I don’t know about you, but it seems costs for everything is getting crazy. My wife went to the grocery store and items that were $9 last week are $14 this week. You can’t tell me grocery store or supplier cost have jumped 56% in one week?!? Are prices really going up faster now than in the past? In this issue we analyze the changes in inflation and wages and compare the recent changes to historic averages.
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#116 - Consumer Spending Building Momentum
Daybreak with Anton
September retail sales increased 0.4% from August and the third consecutive month over month (MoM) it has increased. The 0.4% is substantially higher than August’s 0.1% monthly increase. Even though retail sales have increased six of the past nine months this year, overall total retail sales are still less than previous years. Listen in this issue our views on this report and the prospects for the future of the economy and stock market.
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#115 - Client and Friend Events
Daybreak with Anton
Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020, we used to host multiple client and friend dinner events each year. Read in this issue about our dinner event this past September 27 with long time client and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Tom Dwelle, as our keynote speaker at the Dwelle’s impressive hangar at Auburn Municipal Airport. It was an amazing evening with historic multi-million-dollar warbird planes on display, three ship formation flight of North American T-6 Texans, and riveting stories about Tom’s experiences as a fighter pilot during Vietnan. Sign up for our...
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#114 - More Jobs Less Supplies
Daybreak with Anton
Today we have received a trove of economic reports that indicate that companies are still hiring and growing while it appears the economy is in a mild slow down cycle. This seems contradictory and begs the questions: Ø Why is the economy slowing (less consumer spending) while more people are working in the history of this country? Ø Why are there so many job openings yet the unemployment rate remains at lowest level since 1954? Ø What is prompting investors to drive up the stock market to all-time highs? Listen in this issue as we decipher several...
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#113 - Is Housing Reaching a Bottom?
Daybreak with Anton
The very low volume of existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would indicate the continued impact of current decades high mortgage interest rates. The NAR reported only 3.86K houses sold in August compared to 6.6K in January 2021 and well below the average of 5.5K monthly sales from 2015 to 2020. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of this report and what this may mean for home prices in 2025.
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#112 - Small Business Owners Still See Headwinds
Daybreak with Anton
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August. This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year low in March. interested in a loan. NFIB Optimism index has remained below its 50-year average for the past 32 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Update our assessment of this report and the future of small businesses in America.
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#111 - Summer Stock Market Selloff Continues
Daybreak with Anton
After a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling. The reason floated out by the main media for the selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Manufacturing Index (PMI) report released this morning. Apparently, investors were rattled hearing the same information from last week’s Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Manufacturing (FRPM) index that dropped in August and down from the three months high reached in July. The S&P Global PMI index declined in August and was the first...
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#110 - Summer Pause and Rebound
Daybreak with Anton
As we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024. The reasons for summer weakness vary from one year to the next, but the consistent pattern is unmistakable. This summer, the rationale given why investors were reducing stock allocations included disappointment the Feds have not lowered interest rates, concerns about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, stocks were overpriced to their earnings, and weak housing market. In this Update we review...
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#109 - Consumers’ Pandemic Hangover
Daybreak with Anton
Explore the paradox of low consumer confidence amid a booming stock market in our latest analysis. Discover how media narratives might be leading investors astray while missing out on historic gains.
info_outlineToday the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index. The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday forecaster consensus.
Small business owners have struggled significantly since the coronavirus outbreak that has been reflected by the dramatic drop in the optimism index. The optimism index has been below the 50-year average of 98 for the past 28 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and investment opportunities in the future.