Daybreak with Anton

As an investment advisor and pilot, Anton incorporates topics on investing strategies with his love for aviation with guests that have insights on finances and unique adventures.

#94 - Consumers Earning and Spending More 05/01/2024

#94 - Consumers Earning and Spending More Yesterday the released its monthly report on consumer income and spending. The report indicated that personal income rose 0.05% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which is good news for households and the economy. In this Weekly Brief we review this report and how it may impact the stock market and investors. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31064193

#93 - Housing Navigating Through High Interest Rates 04/24/2024

#93 - Housing Navigating Through High Interest Rates The reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020. What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market. Listen in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on the US economy. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30960808

#92 - Rebound in Retail Sales 04/17/2024

#92 - Rebound in Retail Sales Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply: People working = people spending = economic activity In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30859068

#91 - More Good News.... Darn 04/10/2024

#91 - More Good News.... Darn The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30758113

#90 - Movement of Money 04/03/2024

#90 - Movement of Money One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indicates contraction. Listen to this Weekly Brief the results of the recently released PMI report and our analysis of this report. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30654038

#89 - Housing and the Stock Market 03/20/2024

#89 - Housing and the Stock Market The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30462953

#88 - When Will Small Businesses Join the Party? 03/13/2024

#88 - When Will Small Businesses Join the Party? Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs, the small business sector seems to be missing the party all together. For several years we have been writing about the lagging S&P 600 Small Cap Index to its peers of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and S&P 400 Mid Cap Indices. Today we review the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) release yesterday that indicated the 26th consecutive month the small business optimism index is below its 50-year average. Listen in this issue why small business owners have not been this pessimistic since 2013 and the outlook for the S&P 600 Small Cap index. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30350663

#87 - Will It Be Another Deja Vu Wild Ride of Hyper Inflation and Interest Rates 03/07/2024

#87 - Will It Be Another Deja Vu Wild Ride of Hyper Inflation and Interest Rates A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019. In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to “Economy in General” and “High Cost of Living/Inflation”. In this Weekly Brief we review events of the 1960’s that led to historic hyperinflation of the 1970’s and what we can learn from this era. Most importantly, what were the risks and opportunities during the wild rides of these decades. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30264588

#86 - Consumer Confidence Improving 02/28/2024

#86 - Consumer Confidence Improving Today the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February 2024. We need to monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us potential insight to the future of consumer spending which represents 66% of the nation’s financial activity as referenced by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means and our view of the stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30144308

#85 - What Happen to the Recession? 02/21/2024

#85 - What Happen to the Recession? This week's podcast dives into the disconnect between media-driven recession fears and the actual economic growth seen despite the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Contrary to dire predictions, the economy expanded, with significant stock market rallies and low unemployment rates defying expectations. We'll discuss the repercussions of basing investment strategies on speculative media narratives and highlight the stability and growth in consumer-focused economic indicators. The episode concludes with our optimistic outlook for 2024, adjusting investment strategies while reflecting on the past year's successes and challenges. Join us as we explore these dynamics and set the stage for informed financial decision-making. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30045993

#84 - The Changing American Population 02/15/2024

#84 - The Changing American Population This year there are more people turning 65-year-old in America than in any other time in history. Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78 and they are turning the age of 65 at a rate of 11,300 per day. Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means for the American society and economy? /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/29962908

#83 - Hot Labor Market 02/07/2024

#83 - Hot Labor Market In last week's episode, we dove deep into the seismic news that shook Wall Street to its core – the latest January US Bureau of Labor Statistics job report. With analysts initially predicting a modest increase of 180,000 new jobs, the actual figures left us astounded as the economy surged with an additional 353,000 positions. This significant uptick isn't just a number; it's a beacon of bustling activity, signaling more paychecks, bolstered households, and invigorated consumer spending. Join us on "Wall Street Wake-Up" as we dissect the labor market's latest trends, providing you with insightful analysis on what this unexpected growth means for your investments and financial landscape. Tune in to ensure you're well-equipped to navigate the twists and turns of the market with confidence. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/29836203

#82 - Santa Claus Predictor 01/31/2024

#82 - Santa Claus Predictor Explore the 'Santa Claus Predictor' in our latest podcast episode. Learn how the S&P 500's performance during key December and January dates can signal its yearly direction. With mixed signals for 2024, we also delve into the robust end-of-year market rally in 2023 and discuss the promising economic outlook for the year ahead. Tune in for a concise and insightful analysis of market trends and predictions! /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/29735658

#81 - Americans Feeling Good! 01/24/2024

#81 - Americans Feeling Good! The American consumer sentiment, heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022, has been recovering since hitting a low in July 2022, reaching a two-year high in January. Despite ongoing concerns like international conflicts and inflation, household financial conditions are strong, with low unemployment and favorable mortgage rates. This improvement in sentiment is critical as consumer spending drives 66% of the US GDP, and while holiday sales were robust, economic conditions remain dynamic and require continuous monitoring to anticipate future trends in the economy and stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/29622993

#80 - A Look Back at 2023 and Forward to 2024 01/17/2024

#80 - A Look Back at 2023 and Forward to 2024 In 2023, the stock market, led by major tech companies, saw significant gains with the S&P 500 up by 26%, while the fixed income market experienced unexpected fluctuations in interest rates. Looking ahead to 2024, the stock market is considered more expensive, with expectations of continued growth and margin expansion, especially in tech sectors influenced by AI, while the fixed income market faces challenges with debt rollovers and potential for strong yields in high-rated areas. The U.S. economy remains resilient with steady growth and moderating inflation. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/29521193

#79 - US Economy Ends Well, Now On To 2024 01/10/2024

#79 - US Economy Ends Well, Now On To 2024 Our expectations of a stock market yearend rally were modest due to waning retail sales and consumer confidence reported in October. As it turned out, the yearend rally exceeded our and most expectations as institutional investors added stocks to their portfolios that rallied the S&P 500 by 17% and NASDAQ by 23% since the October 27 bottom. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the year and potential new buying opportunities in 2024. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/29421663

#78 - CHRISTMAS MEMORIES 12/27/2023

#78 - CHRISTMAS MEMORIES Yesterday was Christmas and already it seems like it was yesterday. We are fortunate to have seven of our ten grandkids living close to us. As a result, we had a full house with all day activities with kids and adults that concluded with an amazing Christmas dinner with my wife as head chef. Read more about our day in this Weekly Brief. We are hopeful that you had a wonderful Christmas day with friends and family. At Up Capital Management are thankful for the opportunity to serve you with this Weekly Brief and as clients of our financial planning and wealth management services. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/29241478

#77 - Help Wanted For Christmas And Beyond! 12/06/2023

#77 - Help Wanted For Christmas And Beyond! The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today the slow continual decline in job openings that remains at historic high levels. Meanwhile, unemployment remains at multi-decade low levels. How can businesses have record job openings while those collecting unemployment are at record low levels? Where are the workers and how are they paying their bills? Finally, what does this mean for the US economy and stock markets? In this Weekly Brief we unpack these reports and explain where people are working and why household finances are better than they have been in decades. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28949733

#76 - Seasoning for the Sage Investor: What’s on the Market’s Menu? 11/22/2023

#76 - Seasoning for the Sage Investor: What’s on the Market’s Menu? With Thanksgiving quickly approaching (along with friends and families), we take a look at how inflation is impacting the country and especially the cost of Thanksgiving dinner. Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of several economic indicators to determine if the economy is slowing or growing as we enter the last four weeks of the year. Let us know how we can assist you with your financial planning and investing goals. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28752418

#75 - Market Rebound! 11/08/2023

#75 - Market Rebound! Explore the market's triumphant week with our latest financial briefing. Discover how small and mid-cap indices like the SP600 and SP400 outshone their larger counterparts, signaling a strategic shift as investors hunt for value in underperformers. Unpack the surprising three-year lag of the tech-heavy NASDAQ and its historical cycle of dominance and downturns. Dive into the charts illustrating NASDAQ's impressive rallies over the past five and ten years. We dissect what this rotation in market leadership means for your investments and why, despite past tech sector volatility, a future of growth beckons. Tune in to align with the market's upward momentum as we analyze why history's lessons are shaping today's investment strategies. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28550855

Episode 74. Values And Perceptions 11/01/2023

Episode 74. Values And Perceptions The stock market is always moving as investors adjust their portfolios to their perspective of the economy and their stock holdings. The result is the actual value of stocks are rarely held as prices fluctuate above and below the actual value. The key to building wealth is achieving sustainable and consistent yearly gains of your accounts. In this Weekly Brief, we review the wild ride of the past couple years, what we can learn from it, and most importantly, what longer trend has been in place. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28481564

Episode 73. Good News is Bad News Again 10/18/2023

Episode 73. Good News is Bad News Again Is good news really bad news for investors? The media would like you to think so. Today, the US Census Bureau released their report indicating that consumer spending increased month over month higher than projected. The media interprets this as bad news as it raises the risk the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates. Read in this Weekly Brief how we interpret this data and whether good news is really bad news. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28352273

Episode 72. Small Business Owners Still in Recovery 10/10/2023

Episode 72. Small Business Owners Still in Recovery The small and mid-cap indices continue to trail their large cap and NASDAQ peers. Is it time to consider investing in these trailing sectors or wait for more confirmation of a positive trend? Speaking of positive trend, the SP 500 has bounced off of a low on October 2 and has rallied above its 20, 50, and 200 Day Moving Averages. Is this the uptrend we have been waiting for? Read in this Weekly Brief our views of the current market and this recent reversal. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28281992

Episode 71. Fraud Alert 10/04/2023

Episode 71. Fraud Alert In this Weekly Brief we review many of the scams our clients have experienced in hopes of preventing you from getting scammed. Scammers are getting extremely sophisticated as they can duplicate major banking emails and even show up on your caller ID when they call. AI is introducing all new ways to duplicate voices and write emails. Be aware anytime you get a call from a financial institution and especially if they want you to make changes or transfer funds from your account. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28219280

Episode 70. Investing for the Long Term 09/27/2023

Episode 70. Investing for the Long Term The S&P 500 has declined 8% since it peaked on July 31 the year high and now at its 200 Day Moving Average. Is this a time to sell or buy and what will the institutional investors that represent the majority of stock market trading, be doing? Read in this Weekly Brief our views and what strategies one must consider to consistently build wealth. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28154279

Episode 69. Consumers Spending and Investors Sentiment 09/20/2023

Episode 69. Consumers Spending and Investors Sentiment Consumer sentiment has declined for the third consecutive month. Is this a precursor to another mild holiday season? In this Weekly Brief we review the recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report along with other reports to determine the trend of the economy and stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28089866

Episode 68. Overcoming Tragedy 09/13/2023

Episode 68. Overcoming Tragedy Anton shares in this Weekly Brief his experience of a near death plane crash one year ago and the emotional recovery process since the crash. Not everyone will be involved in a near death accident, but recovering from personal challenges are similar with perseverance to work through the situation and emotions that come with the experience. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/28023924

Episode 67. Consumer Engine Still Strong 09/06/2023

Episode 67. Consumer Engine Still Strong Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%. Consumer spending represents 66% of the US GDP and the future of the economy is dependent on consumers continuing to spend even with higher interest rates. Listen in this Weekly Brief our full analysis of consumer spending and other economic indicators. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/27953088

Episode 66. Investors Holding their Breath 08/30/2023

Episode 66. Investors Holding their Breath Cash savings balances are near all-time highs. When overall trading is thin (like in August when many investors are on vacation), the market is prone to stall. After Labor Day, school will be in full swing, and most market players will be back at their desks. Will you be ready when investors are back in the driver’s seat and cash balances start to roll back into the stock market? Call us if you are not as we welcome the opportunity to assist you and your family. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/27891396

Episode 65. NO HELP WANTED 08/23/2023

Episode 65. NO HELP WANTED Institutional investors’ biggest fears for the past two years are the impact of rising interest rates due to the Federal Reserve rate hike campaign. Now that a recession appears to be a low probability, investors new fear is if the Fed’s will resume more rate hikes if inflation appears to be heating up. Wage growth will be a major factor to rising inflation going into 2024 and investors will be encouraged by reports that employers are slowing their hiring and wage increases. Listen in this Brief our analysis of the labor market and what it may mean to investors going into the fourth quarter. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/27826866

Daybreak with Anton

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