Daybreak with Anton

As an investment advisor and pilot, Anton incorporates topics on investing strategies with his love for aviation with guests that have insights on finances and unique adventures.

#118 - Trump 2.0 What Can We Expect 11/13/2024

#118 - Trump 2.0 What Can We Expect Looking back at Trump’s first term offers insights into potential market impacts of his second. In 2016, markets rallied after his election, while 2024 has seen sustained growth and investor confidence regardless of the outcome. Key sectors—small caps, consumer discretionary, finance, and energy—are showing strong performance, with tech once again poised for growth. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/33913057

#117 - Labor Costs Continue to Rise as Inflation Slows 11/06/2024

#117 - Labor Costs Continue to Rise as Inflation Slows I don’t know about you, but it seems costs for everything is getting crazy. My wife went to the grocery store and items that were $9 last week are $14 this week. You can’t tell me grocery store or supplier cost have jumped 56% in one week?!? Are prices really going up faster now than in the past? In this issue we analyze the changes in inflation and wages and compare the recent changes to historic averages. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/33817034

#116 - Consumer Spending Building Momentum 10/23/2024

#116 - Consumer Spending Building Momentum September retail sales increased 0.4% from August and the third consecutive month over month (MoM) it has increased. The 0.4% is substantially higher than August’s 0.1% monthly increase. Even though retail sales have increased six of the past nine months this year, overall total retail sales are still less than previous years. Listen in this issue our views on this report and the prospects for the future of the economy and stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/33578652

#115 - Client and Friend Events 10/16/2024

#115 - Client and Friend Events Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020, we used to host multiple client and friend dinner events each year. Read in this issue about our dinner event this past September 27 with long time client and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Tom Dwelle, as our keynote speaker at the Dwelle’s impressive hangar at Auburn Municipal Airport. It was an amazing evening with historic multi-million-dollar warbird planes on display, three ship formation flight of North American T-6 Texans, and riveting stories about Tom’s experiences as a fighter pilot during Vietnan. Sign up for our next event on November 13 in San Jose. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/33477637

#114 - More Jobs Less Supplies 10/01/2024

#114 - More Jobs Less Supplies Today we have received a trove of economic reports that indicate that companies are still hiring and growing while it appears the economy is in a mild slow down cycle. This seems contradictory and begs the questions: Ø Why is the economy slowing (less consumer spending) while more people are working in the history of this country? Ø Why are there so many job openings yet the unemployment rate remains at lowest level since 1954? Ø What is prompting investors to drive up the stock market to all-time highs? Listen in this issue as we decipher several economic reports and answer these three key questions. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/33291157

#113 - Is Housing Reaching a Bottom? 09/25/2024

#113 - Is Housing Reaching a Bottom? The very low volume of existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would indicate the continued impact of current decades high mortgage interest rates. The NAR reported only 3.86K houses sold in August compared to 6.6K in January 2021 and well below the average of 5.5K monthly sales from 2015 to 2020. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of this report and what this may mean for home prices in 2025. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/33202752

#112 - Small Business Owners Still See Headwinds 09/11/2024

#112 - Small Business Owners Still See Headwinds The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August. This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year low in March. interested in a loan. NFIB Optimism index has remained below its 50-year average for the past 32 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Update our assessment of this report and the future of small businesses in America. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/33001787

#111 - Summer Stock Market Selloff Continues 09/04/2024

#111 - Summer Stock Market Selloff Continues After a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling. The reason floated out by the main media for the selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Manufacturing Index (PMI) report released this morning. Apparently, investors were rattled hearing the same information from last week’s Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Manufacturing (FRPM) index that dropped in August and down from the three months high reached in July. The S&P Global PMI index declined in August and was the first month in 2024 with a reduction of production, sales, and demand. Read in this issue our review of these reports and our analysis of today’s stock market selloff. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32887952

#110 - Summer Pause and Rebound 08/29/2024

#110 - Summer Pause and Rebound As we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024. The reasons for summer weakness vary from one year to the next, but the consistent pattern is unmistakable. This summer, the rationale given why investors were reducing stock allocations included disappointment the Feds have not lowered interest rates, concerns about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, stocks were overpriced to their earnings, and weak housing market. In this Update we review reports released by the Federal Reserve Banks on businesses leader sentiment and their forecasts for the next six months. More importantly, read about our views of the stock market rebound and if it will continue to the end of the year. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32790567

#109 - Consumers’ Pandemic Hangover 08/21/2024

#109 - Consumers’ Pandemic Hangover Explore the paradox of low consumer confidence amid a booming stock market in our latest analysis. Discover how media narratives might be leading investors astray while missing out on historic gains. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32665737

#108 - Small Businesses Feeling Better…Sort Of 08/14/2024

#108 - Small Businesses Feeling Better…Sort Of The released today their Small Business Optimism report. In the report, they track the results of their monthly survey to its members to produce their proprietary Small Business Index (SBI). Based on answers provided in July, the SBI rose 2.2 points to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, July’s index at 93.7 is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.0. Read in this issue our view of the Small Business Optimism report. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32567212

#107 "R" Words are Back 08/07/2024

#107 "R" Words are Back Yesterday the world markets sold off as investors stampeded out of the market selling their client’s portfolios as fast as they could. What spooked the markets yesterday is not much different than what normally triggers a stampede. A jittery herd and then a sudden noise. Read in this Issue as we separate the facts from fiction of what the media is reporting and whether the stampede was legitimate or just nervous nellies. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32481447

#106 - Summer Market Correction 07/31/2024

#106 - Summer Market Correction A summer market correction is well under way after a strong first half of 2024 for the stock market. Over time the S&P 500 on average increases about 70% of time with the remaining periods with down cycles referenced as three steps forward one step back. A consistent factor with investors and the stock market are the down cycles that are necessary to set up the next positive trend. Listen in this issue our analysis of the stock market and economy and predictions of when and how the stock market may resume its next up trend. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32364587

#105 - Interest Rates, S&P500 Pullback, and Presidential Campaign Impacts 07/24/2024

#105 - Interest Rates, S&P500 Pullback, and Presidential Campaign Impacts In today's market, interest rate trends, the recent S&P500 pullback, and presidential campaigns are key topics, influencing inflation, market volatility, and political dynamics /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32268767

#104 - How Can Companies Be More Productive? 07/17/2024

#104 - How Can Companies Be More Productive? The holy grail for companies is achieving maximum productivity growth at the most profitable revenue ratio. For publicly traded companies, investors wait to hear each quarter are the changes in the company’s top line revenue (gross sales) and bottom line EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, amortization). The challenge for companies is increasing top revenue efficiently so their net income increases with rising sales. Read in this Update our analysis of a recent study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on productivity and possible implications as companies embrace new technology to grow their companies. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32174852

#103 - When to Sell 07/10/2024

#103 - When to Sell Since the stock market bottom on October 14, 2022, the major indices have rallied significantly. During these past 20 months, the tech-based NASDAQ index has soared 78.3% followed by large cap S&P 500 index up 55.53%. The mid-cap S&P 400 index and small Cap S&P 600 trailed, rising 29.42% and 18.22% respectively. Is this a time to sell or buy more? Listen in this issue our analysis of identifying buying opportunities and when we believe it is time to sell. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/32079297

#102 - Nvidia Rally Continues 06/26/2024

#102 - Nvidia Rally Continues We added Nvidia (NVDA) to our Growth & Income and Growth model portfolios early last year. Since then, the stock price has soared. This year institutional investors continued to add NVDA to their portfolios on bullish forecasts the company’s chip and GPU (graphic processor units) will increase in demand. The stock is up 154.9% YTD through today. Listen in this Weekly Update our view on the future of NVDA and the AI industry. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31890317

#101 - Winners and Losers in May Retail Sales 06/20/2024

#101 - Winners and Losers in May Retail Sales The US Census Bureau released last week the advance projection May report of the (IDEA) that includes information how consumers changed their spending last month. Consumers are changing their spending in what economists refer to as a “soft landing” from former periods of stronger retails sales. Quick reversals from strong retail sales to no sales blindsides investors that typically results in greater stock market volatility as investors knee jerk reaction is to SELL! In this Update, read about our observations of the IDEA report and forecasts for the economy. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31823347

#100 - Consumer Are Changing Where They Spend 06/12/2024

#100 - Consumer Are Changing Where They Spend In this podcast we identify that consumers are changing how they spend their money. It appears people are buying less fun stuff like vacations and home improvements and focusing more on boring stuff like food and clothes. Do consumers know something analysts don’t and are starting to adjust their budgets in preparation for a slowing economy? Listen in this Weekly Brief our observations of consumer spending and the changes we are making in our model portfolios. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31707087

#99 - US Manufacturers Slowing as Global Grows 06/04/2024

#99 - US Manufacturers Slowing as Global Grows The most recent economic tsunami was the 2020 pandemic that significantly disrupted all business and specifically manufacturing. Manufacturers were initially required to shut down operations and send their employees home. The obvious supply chain dysfunction that followed disrupted all businesses depending on manufactured products. Read in this Weekly Brief our observations of this week’s US and Global Manufacturing reports on production and output and the potential impact on businesses in 2024. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31607117

#98 - Consumers Are Uncertain of the Future 05/29/2024

#98 - Consumers Are Uncertain of the Future Last week the released their monthly report on consumer sentiment. For the May report, the mid-month results indicate a preliminary consumer sentiment index of 67.4 that was revised up to 69.1 for the final May reading. May is below the April’s final reading of 77.2. Listen in this issue our analysis of this report and the potential insight to the future of the economy and stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31511752

#97 - Stock Market Rolls On 05/22/2024

#97 - Stock Market Rolls On The Federal Reserve raised the discount interest rate 11 times since March 2022. The last rate increase was in July 2023 as the CPI trended down from its peak and currently the CPI annualized rate for April was reported last week at 3.4% by the How will investors respond with their investment activity as we approach this year’s controversial Presidential election? Listen in this Weekly Brief our views on the interest rate market, the election, and the potential for the stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31411342

#96 - Small Business Owners Still Glum 05/15/2024

#96 - Small Business Owners Still Glum Today the (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index. The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday forecaster consensus. Small business owners have struggled significantly since the coronavirus outbreak that has been reflected by the dramatic drop in the optimism index. The optimism index has been below the 50-year average of 98 for the past 28 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and investment opportunities in the future. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31299637

#95 - Secrets to Building Wealth 05/08/2024

#95 - Secrets to Building Wealth Why do some investors build wealth consistently over time while many have little to show in growth after years of investing? In this Weekly Brief, we dive into the various practices and policies of investment advisors and why the guidance of some will result in years of underperformance of their client accounts. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31189067

#94 - Consumers Earning and Spending More 05/01/2024

#94 - Consumers Earning and Spending More Yesterday the released its monthly report on consumer income and spending. The report indicated that personal income rose 0.05% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which is good news for households and the economy. In this Weekly Brief we review this report and how it may impact the stock market and investors. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/31064193

#93 - Housing Navigating Through High Interest Rates 04/24/2024

#93 - Housing Navigating Through High Interest Rates The reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020. What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market. Listen in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on the US economy. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30960808

#92 - Rebound in Retail Sales 04/17/2024

#92 - Rebound in Retail Sales Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply: People working = people spending = economic activity In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30859068

#91 - More Good News.... Darn 04/10/2024

#91 - More Good News.... Darn The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30758113

#90 - Movement of Money 04/03/2024

#90 - Movement of Money One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indicates contraction. Listen to this Weekly Brief the results of the recently released PMI report and our analysis of this report. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30654038

#89 - Housing and the Stock Market 03/20/2024

#89 - Housing and the Stock Market The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market. /episode/index/show/f9fcc092-56fd-4eab-b9e8-ea4ab5ade2e8/id/30462953

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