#113 - Is Housing Reaching a Bottom?
Daybreak with Anton
The very low volume of existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would indicate the continued impact of current decades high mortgage interest rates. The NAR reported only 3.86K houses sold in August compared to 6.6K in January 2021 and well below the average of 5.5K monthly sales from 2015 to 2020. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of this report and what this may mean for home prices in 2025.
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#112 - Small Business Owners Still See Headwinds
Daybreak with Anton
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August. This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year low in March. interested in a loan. NFIB Optimism index has remained below its 50-year average for the past 32 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Update our assessment of this report and the future of small businesses in America.
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#111 - Summer Stock Market Selloff Continues
Daybreak with Anton
After a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling. The reason floated out by the main media for the selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Manufacturing Index (PMI) report released this morning. Apparently, investors were rattled hearing the same information from last week’s Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Manufacturing (FRPM) index that dropped in August and down from the three months high reached in July. The S&P Global PMI index declined in August and was the first...
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#110 - Summer Pause and Rebound
Daybreak with Anton
As we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024. The reasons for summer weakness vary from one year to the next, but the consistent pattern is unmistakable. This summer, the rationale given why investors were reducing stock allocations included disappointment the Feds have not lowered interest rates, concerns about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, stocks were overpriced to their earnings, and weak housing market. In this Update we review...
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#109 - Consumers’ Pandemic Hangover
Daybreak with Anton
Explore the paradox of low consumer confidence amid a booming stock market in our latest analysis. Discover how media narratives might be leading investors astray while missing out on historic gains.
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#108 - Small Businesses Feeling Better…Sort Of
Daybreak with Anton
The released today their Small Business Optimism report. In the report, they track the results of their monthly survey to its members to produce their proprietary Small Business Index (SBI). Based on answers provided in July, the SBI rose 2.2 points to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, July’s index at 93.7 is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.0. Read in this issue our view of the Small Business Optimism report.
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#107 "R" Words are Back
Daybreak with Anton
Yesterday the world markets sold off as investors stampeded out of the market selling their client’s portfolios as fast as they could. What spooked the markets yesterday is not much different than what normally triggers a stampede. A jittery herd and then a sudden noise. Read in this Issue as we separate the facts from fiction of what the media is reporting and whether the stampede was legitimate or just nervous nellies.
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#106 - Summer Market Correction
Daybreak with Anton
A summer market correction is well under way after a strong first half of 2024 for the stock market. Over time the S&P 500 on average increases about 70% of time with the remaining periods with down cycles referenced as three steps forward one step back. A consistent factor with investors and the stock market are the down cycles that are necessary to set up the next positive trend. Listen in this issue our analysis of the stock market and economy and predictions of when and how the stock market may resume its next up trend.
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#105 - Interest Rates, S&P500 Pullback, and Presidential Campaign Impacts
Daybreak with Anton
In today's market, interest rate trends, the recent S&P500 pullback, and presidential campaigns are key topics, influencing inflation, market volatility, and political dynamics
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#104 - How Can Companies Be More Productive?
Daybreak with Anton
The holy grail for companies is achieving maximum productivity growth at the most profitable revenue ratio. For publicly traded companies, investors wait to hear each quarter are the changes in the company’s top line revenue (gross sales) and bottom line EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, amortization). The challenge for companies is increasing top revenue efficiently so their net income increases with rising sales. Read in this Update our analysis of a recent study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on productivity and possible implications as...
info_outlineThe US Census Bureau released last week the advance projection May report of the Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) that includes information how consumers changed their spending last month. Consumers are changing their spending in what economists refer to as a “soft landing” from former periods of stronger retails sales. Quick reversals from strong retail sales to no sales blindsides investors that typically results in greater stock market volatility as investors knee jerk reaction is to SELL! In this Update, read about our observations of the IDEA report and forecasts for the economy.