#139 - Disparity Widens of Optimism Between Executives and Households
Release Date: 06/04/2025
#166 - Recovery Rally Building Momentum
Daybreak with Anton
Most major U.S. market indices have staged an impressive rebound since establishing their lows on March 30, 2026. The S&P 500 has now moved back into a technically solid bullish trend, with its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all turning higher. This is an important indication that both short-term momentum and longer-term market direction have shifted back in favor of the bulls. Leading the advance has been the NASDAQ Composite, which has surged 19.63% since March 30, while the S&P 500 has posted a strong gain of 13.09% over the same period. Listen in this...
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#165 - Gambling is not Investing
Daybreak with Anton
Throughout my career, I’ve often heard people argue that the stock market is rigged, corrupt, or tilted in favor of wealthy, well-connected investors. Many believe the average individual has little chance of success. Like most generalizations these comments stray wide of reality. Having spent nearly 40 years investing in the stock market, I’ve learned not to get worked up too much by these views. Listen to this UPdate distinct comparisons between the fast growing predictions market (gambling) and investing. Most importantly the devastation that this new form of...
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#164 - Building and Preserving Wealth
Daybreak with Anton
U.S. equities rallied strongly from 2022 to early 2026, led by large caps, before Iran conflict fears triggered declines and unusual drops in precious metals. Markets turned volatile, with leadership shifting to smaller caps. The focus remains on risk management, timely reentry, and monitoring oil, rates, inflation, and geopolitical developments. Listen in this UPdate our portfolio management strategies for the past five years and our goal to capitalize on growth opportunities and minimize risks during the market downturns.
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#163 - Differing Moods of Investors and Consumers
Daybreak with Anton
Before the war with Iran, both investors and consumers were already facing significant uncertainty about the outlook for their finances and the broader U.S. economy. Investors were focused on several key issues, including the future path of Federal Reserve interest rates, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, rising inflation, and the potential effects of tariffs. Consumers, meanwhile, had their own set of concerns. These included persistently high mortgage rates, a sluggish housing market, the rising cost of living, and worries about job security particularly considering increasing...
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#162 - Investors Not Panicking
Daybreak with Anton
On June 12–13 of last year, Israel carried out large-scale airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military bases, and senior commanders and scientists. Dozens of sites were neutralized, and several top Iranian military leaders were killed. Despite the escalation, U.S. institutional investors showed little concern and continued deploying billions into equities, private equity, and venture capital. Markets responded positively, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching new all-time highs.
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#161 - The Bipolar Stock Market
Daybreak with Anton
As a lifelong investor and portfolio manager for the past 28 years, I can confidently say the stock market has bipolar disorder. In reality, it is the large cast of participants that include media commentators, analysts, institutional investors, and everyday individuals who drive the market’s unpredictable day-to-day movements. Read in this UPdate our analysis of the stock market, the impact of AI, and our views for the balance of this year.
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#160 - Small Business Owners and Consumers Slow Sentiment Improvement
Daybreak with Anton
Over the past three days, we’ve received reports on the state of consumer sentiment and small business confidence. The results show that both groups are slowly becoming more optimistic about the future, though improvement remains modest. Read in this UPdate, our review of several reports concerning consumer and small business sentiment and our views for the stock market.
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#159 - Santa Claus Happy with Wall Street
Daybreak with Anton
Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor, and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new year. These three barometers are monitoring the performance of the S&P 500 during specific days of the prior year December Christmas and the new year. These three periods make up what is known as the “Santa Claus Barometer”. The specific days for this Santa Claus barometer are: Ø Santa Claus Rally (SCR) – Prior Year December 26...
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#160 - Gold and Silver
Daybreak with Anton
Last year, we began adding gold and silver mining companies Up Capital Model portfolios. Let me first give credit to client, Annie Alexander, who first introduced the idea of miner stocks early in 2025 as a developing favorable asset class. We ultimately decided to add gold and silver miners to Up Capital Model portfolios in the second quarter of 2025. Listen to this UPdate our analysis of the precious metals and miners and the potential for continued gains in 2026.
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#158 - Why Venezuela Doesn’t Matter - Yet
Daybreak with Anton
The year has now begun with a jolt of geopolitical disruption from Washington. Over the weekend, following months of negotiations with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump authorized a dramatic 2:00 a.m. local-time operation by elite U.S. Delta Force units. The mission captured President Maduro and his wife and transported them to the United States, where they now await trial. Read in this UPdate our view of these recent events and the potential impact on the oil industry.
info_outlineIn the complex and extensive ecosystem of the US economy, the fundamental core of its sustainability and continued growth all depends on the consumer. That’s you and me and how we spend and save our money. As investors we monitor consumer spending of both staples as the largest portion of household budgets and the more profitable discretionary spending such as vacations, hospitality, dining, jewelry, and luxury items. Discretionary budgets can fluctuate dramatically that are influenced by various factors that include changes in payroll, consumer sentiment, media, inflation, and politics. What is interesting is the widening spread of sentiment between business owners and consumers. In this Issue we discuss the wide gap of sentiment between business owners and consumers and what it means to you. Most importantly, how this disparity may influence the stock market and your investments.